Talking Point: Improvement - how far can we go in 2015?

[Demon Disciple 12,186]

A good year for us is if we are able to get ourselves out of the bottom 4.

[HEMLOCK 39]

not very far in reality most of the leading teams will continue to make strides, we r hanging our hat on young guns, we r doomed for another ordinary year....

[ILLDieADemon 804]

The question is who is going down the ladder for us to go up?

Essendon- might crack a little

Carlton - look to be slipping a little under Mick

Saints - still at massive rebuild stage

GWS - should improve

Lions - pick up some good players in trade week, should improve

Dogs - new coach new game plan, may slip

Collingwood - lost a couple of experience players, may slip a little

Gold Coast - should improve

Richmond - should improve

West coast- should improve

The rest of the club's I can't really see us impoving enough to take there spots.

We will be lucky to be 14th at the end of 2015

If any one thinks otherwise you have a bad case of off season denial.

Edited January 3, 2015 by ILLDieADemon

[CBDees 3,167]

We will be in the eight from our Round One defeat of the Suns right through to the Finals!

Edited January 3, 2015 by CBDees

[McQueen 17,865]

The question is who is going down the ladder for us to go up?

Essendon- might crack a little

Carlton - look to be slipping a little under Mick

Saints - still at massive rebuild stage

GWS - should improve

Lions - pick up some good players in trade week, should improve

Dogs - new coach new game plan, may slip

Collingwood - lost a couple of experience players, may slip a little

Gold Coast - should improve

Richmond - should improve

West coast- should improve

The rest of the club's I can't really see us impoving enough to take there spots.

We will be lucky to be 14th at the end of 2015

If any one thinks otherwise you have a bad case of off season denial.

So every other teams performance in the bottom 10 will alter but not ours?

Gotcha.

[McQueen 17,865]

We will be in the eight from our Round One defeat of the Suns right through to the Finals!

If we win a round 1 game I'm gonna get on it like you wouldn't believe.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

The question is who is going down the ladder for us to go up?

Essendon- might crack a little

Carlton - look to be slipping a little under Mick

Saints - still at massive rebuild stage

GWS - should improve

Lions - pick up some good players in trade week, should improve

Dogs - new coach new game plan, may slip

Collingwood - lost a couple of experience players, may slip a little

Gold Coast - should improve

Richmond - should improve

West coast- should improve

The rest of the club's I can't really see us impoving enough to take there spots.

We will be lucky to be 14th at the end of 2015

If any one thinks otherwise you have a bad case of off season denial.

wow, with every side improving every year, imagine what it will be like in a few seasons' time

[rjay 25,002]

The question is who is going down the ladder for us to go up?

Essendon- might crack a little

Carlton - look to be slipping a little under Mick

Saints - still at massive rebuild stage

GWS - should improve

Lions - pick up some good players in trade week, should improve

Dogs - new coach new game plan, may slip

Collingwood - lost a couple of experience players, may slip a little

Gold Coast - should improve

Richmond - should improve

West coast- should improve

The rest of the club's I can't really see us impoving enough to take there spots.

We will be lucky to be 14th at the end of 2015

If any one thinks otherwise you have a bad case of off season denial.

Essendon - will be missing half their team

Carlton - probably bottom 2 for them, knives out for Mick by round 2 although more like round 1 or the NAB cup

Saints - odds on for the spoon but Carlton may give them a run

GWS - hard to pick but may improve

Lions - still have a lot of deficiencies, midfield strength will get them a good share of wins but the honeymoon is over for 'Leppa'

Dogs - have made some big Demon like mistakes

Collingwood - probably stay where they are, don't really see them making a big move up or down

GC - I would expect to make the 8 with Eade in control, a very good coach and with another year the reliance on Ablett will be less

Richmond - no good, their first half season form last year is the real Richmond. Expect to see 'Dimmer' gone 2015/16

West Coast - probably around the same mark as Collingwood

Geelong - taken big risks to cover ageing list with shortfalls, will slide further

Freo - see Geelong but without the additions to the list. Make or break for them. Well coached so should make top 8, top 4???

Adelaide - have deficiencies, 12th - top 8 if they get a good run with injuries. Around the mark with the Pies and WC

Port - a contender

Swans - need a win to justify Buddy Tippett

Hawks - ageing champions could slide, difficult for them to win it this year. Should finish 8 - 2

North - taken risk with Waite, think they can win it. So close yet so far...probably top 8, if the risk works still can't see them winning

Us - Well it's not easy to take the big jump but Port did it a couple of years back. I would expect us to finish away from the bottom grouping and move into the middle rung this year which will give us a chance to scrape into the 8 if things go well. I think it more likely and in fact a must in 2016.

[P-man 13,366]

Pass mark for me is getting out of the bottom four to finish 14th or higher. Anything less will be a major disappointment as I think the team is quite capable of achieving it with Frawley being the only loss of any significance from the 2014 side and plenty of talent (tested and untested) introduced for 2015.

Finals is not out of the question and should be a goal internally, but it would be extremely unlikely, verging on miraculous.

[CityDee 738]

8 wins to continue the trend of doubling on the previous season . Possibly more if we start well get lucky with injuries and bloody umpires !

[ILLDieADemon 804]

wow, with every side improving every year, imagine what it will be like in a few seasons' time

It's a hard climb up the ladder when your 17th, how do you expect us to past clubs which finish higher then us last season when they should be improving at the same rate as us?

If we rise out of the bottem 4 and end up somewhere between 14th & 10th we have a achieved a great step forward.

I have put to many high expectation in the off season in the past and been disappointed to let myself think otherwise.

Hopefully by 2016 we will be fighting for that 8th spot and then moving up from there.

[Dee Dee 1,109]

We coulda/shoulda won at least three or four more games last season (dogs, port) but we lacked belief and courage.

That last game against the Doggies being a perfect example.

For me, anything less than eight wins is a fail.

How will it come about? First of all the coaching panel (which as far as I can tell is the rival of any in the competition) has had a year to settle in and knows what the strengths and weaknesses are of the playing group. And the recruiting of Brendan McCartney only strengthens the development program.

Secondly the players themselves. The clean out at the end of 2013 and again last year leaves us with a group of IMHO very competitive footballers, young men who won't take defeat lightly and will not "drop their bundle" when they are six or seven points ahead with six or seven minutes left to play!

I realise that every other team is, like us, training the house down, but I believe we now have the infostructure in place to turn potential into reality!

[rpfc 28,545]

People exaggerate how far behind we are - we lost the last 10 and finished 17th but that's not the real story

2013/2014 AFL Average:

50.4 inside-50

13.11.89

MFC 2014:

40.5 inside-50

9.7.61

so that's it: 4 goals and 10 inside 50s and we are an AFL average side

pedants can talk til they're blue in the face but it really doesn't get any simpler than that and the numbers are incapable of lying

So stats never lie? They can certainly mislead...

10 Inside 50s doesn't sound like much but it is quite a bit. Roos was only able to improve that number by .5 from the year before...

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

8 wins to continue the trend of doubling on the previous season . Possibly more if we start well get lucky with injuries and bloody umpires !

i wish we had only won 1, not 2, in 2013.. then we could say we quadrupled.. and following the trend would be getting 16 wins this year

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

So stats never lie? They can certainly mislead...

10 Inside 50s doesn't sound like much but it is quite a bit. Roos was only able to improve that number by .5 from the year before...

the differential went from 18.0 to 11.6

if there is 100 x I-50s per game (40 us 60 them) it is only a change of 10% to make it 50-50

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

how do you expect us to past clubs which finish higher then us last season when they should be improving at the same rate as us?

oh now I see. We will improve by 6 wins to make it 10. However, everyone else will win 6 more, meaning 19 wins will be required to make finals. In a few years, it will take 35 wins in a 22 game season to play finals, because every side just improves at a constant rate every year.

[Macca 17,020]

Essendon - will be missing half their team Hope you're right

Carlton - probably bottom 2 for them, knives out for Mick by round 2 although more like round 1 or the NAB cup Agree

Saints - odds on for the spoon but Carlton may give them a run Agree

GWS - hard to pick but may improve They'll get better

Lions - still have a lot of deficiencies, midfield strength will get them a good share of wins but the honeymoon is over for 'Leppa' One to watch maybe?

Dogs - have made some big Demon like mistakes 8 wins max

Collingwood - probably stay where they are, don't really see them making a big move up or down They might be in trouble - Buckley an issue?

GC - I would expect to make the 8 with Eade in control, a very good coach and with another year the reliance on Ablett will be less Finals - top 6

Richmond - no good, their first half season form last year is the real Richmond. Expect to see 'Dimmer' gone 2015/16 They're not that good - 10 wins tops

West Coast - probably around the same mark as Collingwood I'll take your word for it

Geelong - taken big risks to cover ageing list with shortfalls, will slide further You're probably right

Freo - see Geelong but without the additions to the list. Make or break for them. Well coached so should make top 8, top 4??? Agree

Adelaide - have deficiencies, 12th - top 8 if they get a good run with injuries. Around the mark with the Pies and WC Yep

Port - a contender Yep

Swans - need a win to justify Buddy Tippett A lot of talent - they'll be thereabouts

Hawks - ageing champions could slide, difficult for them to win it this year. Should finish 8 - 2 Hard to 3peat but you never know

North - taken risk with Waite, think they can win it. So close yet so far...probably top 8, if the risk works still can't see them winning Finals - maybe top 4 but more likely top 6

Us - Well it's not easy to take the big jump but Port did it a couple of years back. I would expect us to finish away from the bottom grouping and move into the middle rung this year which will give us a chance to scrape into the 8 if things go well. I think it more likely and in fact a must in 2016.

Not a lot different to your summation rjay and with the talent pool being spread so thin, it's hard to see a lot of discernible change with ladder positions and win totals. We couldn't always say that in the past.

[KingDingAling 3,758]

If our past performances were culture related, then we should start seeing improvement.

[ILLDieADemon 804]

oh now I see. We will improve by 6 wins to make it 10. However, everyone else will win 6 more, meaning 19 wins will be required to make finals. In a few years, it will take 35 wins in a 22 game season to play finals, because every side just improves at a constant rate every year.

You're an idiot!

Edited January 4, 2015 by ILLDieADemon

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,400]

not very far in reality most of the leading teams will continue to make strides, we r hanging our hat on young guns, we r doomed for another ordinary year....

not very far in reality most of the leading teams will continue to make strides, we r hanging our hat on young guns, we r doomed for another ordinary year....

And how is that different from the Suns? Jones, Dunn and Jetta all had their best years last year, Roos won't allow them to rest on that. I'd pick Cross before Viney(2016 a different story)Pedo is another who improved last year. I want Howe up forward to provide another target along with Dawes so we aren't always going to Hogan. Plus we've drafted H, Garlett and Newton.

[old dee 23,801]

A good year for us is if we are able to get ourselves out of the bottom 4.

Got it in one DD!

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

Your an idiot!

You're

[rpfc 28,545]

the differential went from 18.0 to 11.6

if there is 100 x I-50s per game (40 us 60 them) it is only a change of 10% to make it 50-50

I know, I looked it up and created a thread concerning it, but again, we managed to keep the other team out of their forward line 6 times a game, but still could not bring it into our own one more time a game than in 2013.

It is going to tough for us to get to that 'median AFL team' level - such is where we are coming from.

[old dee 23,801]

I know, I looked it up and created a thread concerning it, but again, we managed to keep the other team out of their forward line 6 times a game, but still could not bring it into our own one more time a game than in 2013.

It is going to tough for us to get to that 'median AFL team' level - such is where we are coming from.

Spot on rpfc a lot seem to conveniently forget how bad we have been the last eight years especially the last three.

While I think we will improve on 2014 there is a very long way to go.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

I know, I looked it up and created a thread concerning it, but again, we managed to keep the other team out of their forward line 6 times a game, but still could not bring it into our own one more time a game than in 2013.

It is going to tough for us to get to that 'median AFL team' level - such is where we are coming from.

ah yes, i forgot that was you. Weren't we on the same page then? You've changed your tune?

I hate these arguments over basic mathematical principles BUT in 2014 we got 44%(vs 56% obv.) of the inside-50s in games we played.. that means you win an extra 5 contests over the course of a match, your i50 goes up 5 but your opponents ALSO decreases by 5, so the difference is a total of 10. FIVE contests over a match, on the premise of course that winning a contest around the middle of the ground, such as a stoppage, leads to an inside-50 (strong correlation). We also should be seeing a better return on goals-from-inside-50s because of Hogan and Garlett.. but that is a separate point. I guess what I'm rambling about is that 4 wins/17th place looks bad, but the difference between that and 11 wins/9th-10th place is actually quite minimal.

This is supported by the scoreboard also - 6 losses by 20 points or less (ave 11.7 pts). Gameday average of 28 points on the scoreboard below AFL average. Wouldn't you agree that 5 contests leads to an inside-50 differential change of 10, leads to another 2-4 goals per game, leads to winning those 6 closes ones, leads to being close to AFL average and a % of 100.00

?