AFL National Draft 2014 Picks 2 & 3

[jabberwocky 2,301]

I'm officially going on the record to say the following players will be busts:

Brayshaw (a year older than most of his TAC cup teammates who didn't have the distractions of yr 12 last year, will also be found out, I fear he could be the biggest bust of the whole draft if he goes high)

Petracca (a man child that I think will be found out playing with real men)

Laverde (not sure why, call it gut feel)

Wright (not competitive enough)

McCartin (dunno, the diabetes thing maybe an issue)

Lever (already done knee, risky proposition)

As picks 2 & 3 are likely to come out of this crop, I think our trend of dud high picks will continue this year. Bring on picks 40 and 53 though!

Are you Picket fence?

Waiting for player X to be a bust so you can come back and do the whole "I told you so" routine.

[Demon Disciple 12,494]

With Bemused look on my face,

So tell me who do we pick then??

Simple, we re-draft Evans, Tapscott, Strauss, etc and rue the missed opportunity to regain Blease.

[Members' Wing 1,106]

Duggan will succeed! And will do it well.

He will be the steal of the draft!

We are all entitled to an opinion. But I'm sure you won't only eat your words... But choke on them!

Most experts have Duggan going around the 15-20 mark. What do you see in him to make him worth of pick 3 DT?

[Lucifers Hero 40,573]

I would tip that ND53 will be used for a DFA or a PSD pick for someone around 25 age with about 100 games, to start to rebalance our skewed age/experience profile...we currently have only 9 players with over 100 games., two of which are Lumumba and Garlett.

[Ted Lasso 19,568]

Wouldn't even look at Duggan for pick 3

we will take two of, McCartin, Brayshaw, Lever and Petracca

[nutbean 8,838]

That said, I would have preferred to turn pick 3 into a mature player.

Because of the tattslotto which is draft picks I am 100% with you on us. Had we traded pick 3 for a Dylan Shiels then I would be happy in the knowledge of exactly what I was getting for Frawley.

To compare Frawley to 18 year old footballers that haven't even kicked a ball at AFL level is plain folly.

[Machsy 2,858]

Frawley was turned into an opportunity.

The onus is still on us to correctly use that opportunity.

[Dee tention 618]

Most experts have Duggan going around the 15-20 mark. What do you see in him to make him worth of pick 3 DT?

You just need to watch his 'Pick Me' Video on YouTube. I don't know how to link it to this page.

Complete midfielder!!! Leader. From the Western suburbs where they breed them tough.

Composed and level headed. I've got a very good gut feel about him...

I can't find anything not to like about him!

He is exactly what we need.

[beelzebub 23,390]

I think Frawley is a good player but IMO the deal can work out for both sides. He will be good in the Hawks side but he is not a leader like we need and I don't think he would have improved on what we have seen at Melbourne.

We have been given the opportunity to make the most of a good deal it's up to us now to get it right

Frawley is an ok decent player without being really that' good. he had one pretty good year and has NEVER backed it up.. He peaked. He will make an ok addition in a smaller role at the hawks. He provided his best value to us in many years by landing pick 3

[Members' Wing 1,106]

You just need to watch his 'Pick Me' Video on YouTube. I don't know how to link it to this page.

Complete midfielder!!! Leader. From the Western suburbs where they breed them tough.

Composed and level headed. I've got a very good gut feel about him...

I can't find anything not to like about him!

He is exactly what we need.

Not meaning to sound condescending at all, but you're basing your opinion on a YouTube video?

[jackaub 1,402]

Demonland groupthink.

Frawley can't play.

It just strikes me as strange that for a player not many here rate the brains trust of the two best clubs over the last 10 years or so fought for his services.

Heavens are they dumb or what.

Yep they will be disappointed !!

[beelzebub 23,390]

Yep they will be disappointed !!

Actually i think they will be to a degree. Frawley in for one hell of a rude shock over there

[Members' Wing 1,106]

Frawley will be terrific for Hawthorn.

Because we didn't have any capable rebounding backmen he had to try to take on that role too.

As a pure defender who can take the opposition's best key forward and just worry about that and leave the rebounding to the likes of Gibson, Birchall and Lake he will be peerless.

[beelzebub 23,390]

In reality i really couldnt care less what any ex Dee does at another team. Once they go they arent a part of our synergy, but in some cases do take some negativity with them (+)

Now who we get at 2 and 3 DO interest me as they ADD to OUR equation

[Demoneyes 562]

Out of interest, anyone here still wish we had Frawley instead of pick 3?

Absolutely not! As I have said before he was a good defender but dipsosal was shite!

I'm officially going on the record to say the following players will be busts:

Brayshaw (a year older than most of his TAC cup teammates who didn't have the distractions of yr 12 last year, will also be found out, I fear he could be the biggest bust of the whole draft if he goes high)

Petracca (a man child that I think will be found out playing with real men)

Laverde (not sure why, call it gut feel)

Wright (not competitive enough)

McCartin (dunno, the diabetes thing maybe an issue)

Lever (already done knee, risky proposition)

As picks 2 & 3 are likely to come out of this crop, I think our trend of dud high picks will continue this year. Bring on picks 40 and 53 though!

We have noted that, but I feel you have a slight problem.

[CBDees 3,167]

He has more than a slight problem!

[nutbean 8,838]

We have noted that, but I feel you have a slight problem.

Actually I don't have a problem with what is written. He is almost guaranteed of being right about two of the five mentioned. The key is to make sure we don't get the two he is right about.

[WERRIDEE 5,603]

I'm officially going on the record to say the following players will be busts:

Brayshaw (a year older than most of his TAC cup teammates who didn't have the distractions of yr 12 last year, will also be found out, I fear he could be the biggest bust of the whole draft if he goes high)

Petracca (a man child that I think will be found out playing with real men)

Laverde (not sure why, call it gut feel)

Wright (not competitive enough)

McCartin (dunno, the diabetes thing maybe an issue)

Lever (already done knee, risky proposition)

As picks 2 & 3 are likely to come out of this crop, I think our trend of dud high picks will continue this year. Bring on picks 40 and 53 though!

When a kid can be out all year with a knee reco and still be considered a top 3 chance I think it says everything about how woeful this draft really is.

This draft will be one of the worst in history, just our luck to have 2 high picks in such a poor draft.

[Dee tention 618]

Not meaning to sound condescending at all, but you're basing your opinion on a YouTube video?

The basis of my opinion is YouTube, his interview, media commentary and discussion with some people who are linked to footy in the western suburbs.

I think most of us are basing opinions on what is available to us and then comparing the draftees.

I usually have a pretty good gut feel. And he is one I wouldn't pass on.

But hey! That's my opinion. We will just have to wait and see...

What do you base your opinion on?

[Ron Burgundy 8,588]

Demonland groupthink.

Frawley can't play.

It just strikes me as strange that for a player not many here rate the brains trust of the two best clubs over the last 10 years or so fought for his services.

Heavens are they dumb or what.

Speaking to a few of the GWS assistant coaches following our loss to them in Sydney last year, they all said that the only Demons player they actually rated was James Frawley.

Personally, I would have liked to see him genuinely commit to the club and show some leadership as a club leader. I'm not convinced he did that.

If he did this, there's no way I would have preferred pick 3. That he did not, suggests to me that pick 3 is pretty bloody good compensation for a player who's not been AA for several years now.

Pick 3 generally gets an AA standard player.

[whatwhat say what 23,650]

When a kid can be out all year with a knee reco and still be considered a top 3 chance I think it says everything about how woeful this draft really is.

This draft will be one of the worst in history, just our luck to have 2 high picks in such a poor draft.

Sad to say I feel the same.

[CBDees 3,167]

Speaking to a few of the GWS assistant coaches following our loss to them in Sydney last year, they all said that the only Demons player they actually rated was James Frawley.

Personally, I would have liked to see him genuinely commit to the club and show some leadership as a club leader. I'm not convinced he did that.

If he did this, there's no way I would have preferred pick 3. That he did not, suggests to me that pick 3 is pretty bloody good compensation for a player who's not been AA for several years now.

Pick 3 generally gets an AA standard player.

Like Sylvia!

[Whispering_Jack 31,300]

I both agree and disagree.

I agree that Frawley is a very good player and there many posters here who cannot see it for some unfathomable reason. He's a very good lock down defender and he provides some very good rebound for a player of his type. He will do an excellent job at Hawthorn, probably even more than he has for us given the class that he'll have around him. I also think that, overall, we have done very poorly to get 3 and Lumumba for Clark and Frawley, based on where we were 2 years ago.

The bit that I don't necessarily agree with is whether we would be better off with Frawley, based on where we are now. Frawley is an exceptional player, but the role he plays is not super important for us at the moment. Pick 3 may give us more improvement than a mature shut down defender would. Our resources are probably better invested in positions that have more impact on games, such as running players or key forwards. I think that this is especially the case now that more number are getting back to help in defence, rendering the shut down tall defender a luxury when you get to the top of the tree rather than a key plank that helps you rise from the depths.

That said, I would have preferred to turn pick 3 into a mature player.

The question is which Frawley are we losing and which one is Hawthorn gaining?

The player who hit AA heights in 2010 or the one scarred by the events of the intervening years whose form and seemingly his interest and passion for the club declined after he received those offers from the big clubs?

I have no doubt that had he stayed and been fully committed to the cause, he would most likely have been a player of good value for the remainder of his career but probably unlikely to hit the heights of 2010. At Hawthorn, with a lot of very good players around him and a member of a well oiled machine with less individual pressure on his shoulders he'll be a valuable player to them.

But I don't see his loss as the loss of the 2010 variety Frawley; rather of the one we saw in 2014 and I will not mourn the loss of a player whose contribution was far less than what was expected of him.

Similarly, I don't judge the loss of Clark as the shining light and outstanding goalkicker of the first half of 2012 but instead, we have lost someone who contributed four games early in 2013 and nothing since.

The way I look at it, the storm has passed and we have to look to the future. Frawley, Clark and most of the early draft picks we've recently jettisoned are part of our imperfect past.

It's now all about what we do with the players we've brought in and with the picks at our disposal but overall and looking at the 10 primary listed players and one rookie no longer at the club, I think we're already well in front and that our gains will far outweigh our losses.

ARRIVALS

Father-son selection: Billy Stretch (Glenelg)

Trade period: Sam Frost (Greater Western Sydney), Jeff Garlett (Carlton), Heritier Lumumba (Collingwood)

Rookie elevation: Neville Jetta

Delisted free agent: Ben Newton (Port Adelaide)

NAB AFL Draft: TBA

NAB AFL Rookie Draft: TBA

DEPARTURES

Retired: Dom Barry, Shannon Byrnes

Trade period: Mitch Clark (Geelong Cats)

Unrestricted free agent: James Frawley (Hawthorn)

Delisted: Sam Blease, Mitch Clisby, Alex Georgiou (rookie), Michael Evans, Daniel Nicholson, James Strauss, Luke Tapscott

[IvanBartul13 2,564]

Demonland groupthink.

Frawley can't play.

It just strikes me as strange that for a player not many here rate the brains trust of the two best clubs over the last 10 years or so fought for his services.

Heavens are they dumb or what.

There's no doubt he can play and he is most likely going to go back to being one of the best one-on-one defenders in the game again, which is why he is so prized. Lake is in his last season, Schoenmakers is not from what I can tell the answer, so Hawthorn had the problem of what they are going do at full back beyond 2015 and were willing to fork out to get him. Why I think getting Pick 3 for him is a good result has nothing to do with whether he is necessarily a good player or not, it is that last year he spent the season as a roaming CHF because we were able to complile a reasonably good defensive setup without him and if we can format a good back six without him going forward, to be able to get Pick 3 for him isn't a bad result If most people submitted their best 22s for Round 1, 2015 many, even with Frawley off the list, won't have Colin Garland in it, who would have but for missing a game won the 2013 B+F and they'd have Dunn, Frost and McDonald as the three key defenders, with Jetta, Grimes and Lumumba or Howe in it. Does it concern you so much not having Frawley in that context? Obviously things go wrong and football isn't predictable but if Dunn holds down full back and there was some evidence - his blanketing of Cloke and Schulz in particular - that suggested to me that he may be able to with some success and the outrageously long four-year deal the club gave him suggests they think he can, are we losing that much. If the back six plays well for the next four or five years without Frawley then we can come of it the other side with a pick 3 with half his career left to play.

It's not an issue of other club's judgment either. Every team in the comp would want Frawley for nothing and many would have been in the fight. It's a situation where we lose a player and its a lucky thing that the system has allowed us to make the best of it.

Personally, given our current defensive stocks I'm happy to bargain the loss of Frawley for a roll of the dice at one of the better pure full forwards to come through the TAC Cup in a while.

[nutbean 8,838]

Pick 3 generally gets an AA standard player.

This notion/idea is a fairy tale.

Let's go to actual data

Billings/Plowman/Tyson/Day/Martin/Hill/Masten/Hansen/Ellis/Griffen/Sylvia

That's 11 years of draftees at pick 3 - I know that it is too soon for the last 3 years ( although many on Demonlanders are prepared to make a set in stone career prediction on some footballers based on one season).

A total of one AA nomination for Griffen in 2013. That is out of 66 chances - meaning the strike rate over the last 11 drafts that the player will be AA standard is a whopping 1.5%.

I conservatively hope that we get a week in week out solid player - looking at the bunch above it looks like we traded in the best pick 3 in Tyson ( arguments can be mounted for an inconsistent Hill and Griffen). I dream of getting an AA standard player.

Edit - interesting I just researched pick 2 Kelly/Orourke/Coniglio/Bennell/Trengove/NicNat/Cotchin/Gumbleton/Thomas/Roughead/Walker

Lots of busts there as well - 5 all Australians out of a possible 66. One footballer who I would call an out and out champion - Roughead (Richmond would mount an argument for Cotchin).

Does this explode the myth that we are "guaranteed" of getting guns at 2 and 3 ?