I NEVER bet, but.....

[Binmans PA 26,295]

I am a 50 year veteran demon supporter (yes I do remember Neil Compton's goal - I was there as a 12 year old with the old man, my name dees2014 is conceived to remember the 50th anniversary) so yes I will be around for the next one. A fiftieth anniversary present would be nice i.e. a premiership.

I must say I have not been so optimistic about the Dees since the height of the Daniher era when he got us in the Grand, and before that when Schwartz, Neitz and Lyon were at their height in the mid 1990s - still I believe our best team since 1964.

I think what Roos is building is the organization, business model, coaching staff and list to be better than any of them. We are being set up for long term success.

We should rejoice in the ride ....and yes have a modest side bet here and there to demonstrate our support. The guy at the betting agency said he had had a number of calls about the Demons in the last 24 hours.

Good on you, mate. : ) Well, at least you've been lucky enough to see us win a flag. I hope I can say the same when I'm in my 50s. I just hope it's not that long!

[Carrot Top 947]

Interesting isn't it.

The common man bets - at least a lot do. I don't usually. But the reaction on here to the Demons getting into this sort of discussion, and therefore mainstream is a mixture of outrage and contempt.

Sort of explains a lot about some of our supporter mind sets.

You can't eat odds.

[Grimseyisgod 378]

personally i dont think we have the capacity this year to win more than 8 games.

But it would be a massive improvement and im expecting a massive improvement.

[beelzebub 22,268]

personally i dont think we have the capacity this year to win more than 8 games.

But it would be a massive improvement and im expecting a massive improvement.

ahh but what about NEXT year ?

We say it every year but we've probably more justication thinking it now. We might just surprise a few in 2014.

Our defense is ok ( well practiced lol )

Forward line should be more than ok

Its always been about the engine room. Now We have more cylinders and a good mechanic to tune it.

If it fires we could be better than average.

[jazza 1,323]

ahh but what about NEXT year ?

We say it every year but we've probably more justication thinking it now. We might just surprise a few in 2014.

Our defense is ok ( well practiced lol )

Forward line should be more than ok

Its always been about the engine room. Now We have more cylinders and a good mechanic to tune it.

If it fires we could be better than average.

take the odds

teams that cant make it

w/coast

gws

stkilda

Brisbane

g/c

p/a

Adelaide

Essendon

[Bombay Airconditioning 5,945]

Wasted your money on both. You're exactly the type of sucker these odds are designed for.

How about Tigers missing the eight? If they get a tough draw they're gone. Roos are Monty's.

[Dees2014 2,377]

You can't eat odds.

Oh thanks for that. Very profound! Wonderful insight you have - I am most grateful! Edited October 20, 2013 by Dees2014

[Arrow 1,257]

Let's not forget that last year out of 40 tipsters in the two big papers, 23 tipped West Coast for the Minor Premiership, 40 tipped them for top 8.

1 tipped Port Adelaide for the Wooden Spoon, and 0 tipped them for top 8.

Is it a wise bet, probably not, but these days anything truly can happen.

I don't think we are as far of as we were this year. I thought on list we should be about the 12-14th best team in 2012. We've added more talent, and we've got one of the best coaches of the decade, with brand new developers, and coaches. We have a new board, President, direction of the club and formula to success.

Am I confident we will see success? Yes I am. Am I confident it'll happen next year? No. But never say never.

[old55 21,428]

$100 on Viney for the Rising Star if he's still eligible would be a good bet IMO.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

I'm not going to engage with the betting part; five years ago if you tried to discuss football in terms of online betting odds, people would've thought you were a bit odd yourself.

So, how realistic is it that the Demons can make the eight? Which is easier, thinking of eight teams that would come ahead of us, or ten below?

Possible below -

St Kilda, Bulldogs, Brisbane, Western Sydney, West Coast, Adelaide

And that's pushing it, hard to say how West Coast and Adelaide will go. Peronally I think if we finished out of the bottom four it's a good year, ladder wise.

Top teams not sinking anywhere serious in 2014 would be -

Hawthorn, Geelong, Fremantle, Sydney

So for four remaining slots we'd need to do better than at least four of -

North, Carlton, Richmond, Essendon, Port, Gold Coast, Collingwood,

Anyway, I hope in future you can think of better things to do with $200.

Yes thats interesting.....you would have2 think Richmond and Carlton will be there. Of the rest Gold coast are on the up, reckon Essendon and Collingwood are on the slippery slide, that leaves Port, North and us.

[CHAMP 347]

Oh thanks for that. Very profound! Wonderful insight you have - I am most grateful!

It's an old racing chestnut. "Odds-on, look on" isn't very helpful either.

Your investments would be covered by "You have to speculate to accumulate".

[Dees2014 2,377]

It's an old racing chestnut. "Odds-on, look on" isn't very helpful either.

Your investments would be covered by "You have to speculate to accumulate".

You aren't American by any chance are you? They don't get irony either!

[praha 10,308]

C"mon Nasher! "All we are saying, is give Dees a chance!"

Agreed.

Adding Roos + Vince isn't going to turn a 2-win side into a 13-win side. Has any team in the history of the game had such a turn around? IMO is underestimates the growth of teams like North, Port, Suns, Bulldogs, Tigers, Blues.

Still way off the mark.

[Bang Bang Bang 5,532]

I love the optimism at this time of year but there's the small problem that there are 17 other clubs (ok, maybe not St.Kilda) that are thinking the exact same thing (we will improve in 2014 mantra). These clubs were all light years ahead of us this year, even the crap ones.

If Roos gets 6 wins next year he's done a good job. 8 and he is a genius!

[beelzebub 22,268]

Agreed.

Adding Roos + Vince isn't going to turn a 2-win side into a 13-win side. Has any team in the history of the game had such a turn around? IMO is underestimates the growth of teams like North, Port, Suns, Bulldogs, Tigers, Blues.

Still way off the mark.

1999 2000 just saying

[Barney Rubble 1,576]

I am a punter.

But my wife likes a little flutter with my winnings.

So now, I just assume I donate money to the Bookmakers Retirement Fund.

Edited October 20, 2013 by Chippy

[rpfc 27,590]

$100 on Viney for the Rising Star if he's still eligible would be a good bet IMO.

He's not.

Got to be Hogan then...

[rpfc 27,590]

Throwing $200 bucks away.

All we have is Roos and Vince as a replacement for Sylvia.

The decision to get 2 for 1 with ND2 is a medium term decision considering we got a 20 year old with injury issues to get on top of. Michie has played one game of AFL and I am sure will need time to adjust to this level before providing the kind of footy some on here think is possible.

Our improvement will come from who we have getting healthy. Trengove, Clark, Dawes, and Frawley. I don't think it is enough for the top 12 let alone the 8.

[beelzebub 22,268]

Throwing $200 bucks away.

All we have is Roos and Vince as a replacement for Sylvia.

All we have is a real coach when we had none

All we have is an administration thats capable and not one thats known for trying whilst proving trying !!

We now have the look of having an engine room where before we seemed to have the RACV on speed dial and first names !!

I think you seriously dilute the nature of the quantum shift underway

[rpfc 27,590]

All we have is a real coach when we had none

All we have is an administration thats capable and not one thats known for trying whilst proving trying !!

We now have the look of having an engine room where before we seemed to have the RACV on speed dial and first names !!

I think you seriously dilute the nature of the quantum shift underway

Quantum shifts can only move so much so quickly. Glaciers move mountains and make valleys but very slowly.

We are just terrible, and we got players I address this in the medium term, not 2014.

Roos as a coach will a great deal, but lifting us 6 positions is as far as I can see, and that is quite an improvement I think.

I actually think I am being positive when I say 12th or 11th is possible...

[beelzebub 22,268]

Quantum shifts can only move so much so quickly. Glaciers move mountains and make valleys but very slowly.

We are just terrible, and we got players I address this in the medium term, not 2014.

Roos as a coach will a great deal, but lifting us 6 positions is as far as I can see, and that is quite an improvement I think.

I actually think I am being positive when I say 12th or 11th is possible...

I disagree. maybe we ought suggest a Paradigm shift if more your liking !

I see all this as akin to baking a cake ( in a fashion ) . You have the ingredients (players ) you have the cooks ( coaches etc ) , the facilities, the methodologies and skillsets of those preparing and cooking and a recipe.

What we have had is an array or ingredients ranging from stale to fresh and of quality. W'eve had cooks with hair brained ideas of recipes and their interpretations of using a recipe ( of dodgy quality itself ) and the end result is hardly surprising.. A crap tasting hardly recognisable cake.

Substitute some of the lesser ingredients for better, change the cook to someone(s) who know what they are doing who can bring better experience and flair to the kitchen and very quickly you have a decent cake where there was none. its didnt require an ages to affect a radical change it outcomes.

This is exactly what I suspect you will see at Melbourne...a radical change in output.

[DemonFrog 1,347]

I disagree. maybe we ought suggest a Paradigm shift if more your liking !

I see all this as akin to baking a cake ( in a fashion ) . You have the ingredients (players ) you have the cooks ( coaches etc ) , the facilities, the methodologies and skillsets of those preparing and cooking and a recipe.

What we have had is an array or ingredients ranging from stale to fresh and of quality. W'eve had cooks with hair brained ideas of recipes and their interpretations of using a recipe ( of dodgy quality itself ) and the end result is hardly surprising.. A crap tasting hardly recognisable cake.

Substitute some of the lesser ingredients for better, change the cook to someone(s) who know what they are doing who can bring better experience and flair to the kitchen and very quickly you have a decent cake where there was none. its didnt require an ages to affect a radical change it outcomes.

This is exactly what I suspect you will see at Melbourne...a radical change in output.

God I hope so.

But I expect little so I should not be so disappointed if that is all that is achieved.

[Dees2014 2,377]

I disagree. maybe we ought suggest a Paradigm shift if more your liking !

I see all this as akin to baking a cake ( in a fashion ) . You have the ingredients (players ) you have the cooks ( coaches etc ) , the facilities, the methodologies and skillsets of those preparing and cooking and a recipe.

What we have had is an array or ingredients ranging from stale to fresh and of quality. W'eve had cooks with hair brained ideas of recipes and their interpretations of using a recipe ( of dodgy quality itself ) and the end result is hardly surprising.. A crap tasting hardly recognisable cake.

Substitute some of the lesser ingredients for better, change the cook to someone(s) who know what they are doing who can bring better experience and flair to the kitchen and very quickly you have a decent cake where there was none. its didnt require an ages to affect a radical change it outcomes.

This is exactly what I suspect you will see at Melbourne...a radical change in output.

The major part of our improvement was always going to come from having a coach (s) who knows what he is doing, and getting our current playing group to play up to their potential . Some such as Caroline Wilson see an immediate 30-40% improvement just from this. Add the return from from long term injury and full preseasons of key players such as Clark. Dawes, Gawn, Grimes, and Trengove, the arrival of Jesse Hogan, and you've got probably another 25% improvement. It is only after that you address our major onfield weakness, our mid field, via clever recruiting which we saw last week and will see more of through the drafts. The recruits, dare I say it after the previous post, are "icing on the cake", but do allow us to have a more complete team building on our strengths in defence and attack. It is a classic case of " the whole is greater than the sum of the parts".

To say, as some posts have done on here, that we were the worst team in history last year, and we are not going to fix it immediately by bringing in inexperienced, but skilled players (Tyler, Michie) or has-beens (Vince), or picking kids out of the draft. It fails to take into account the dimensions discussed in the first para, and particularly the ongoing benefits of Roos leadership which is the glue which will make the whole thing work together.

[buck_nekkid 5,517]

I'm not going to engage with the betting part; five years ago if you tried to discuss football in terms of online betting odds, people would've thought you were a bit odd yourself.

So, how realistic is it that the Demons can make the eight? Which is easier, thinking of eight teams that would come ahead of us, or ten below?

Possible below -

St Kilda, Bulldogs, Brisbane, Western Sydney, West Coast, Adelaide

And that's pushing it, hard to say how West Coast and Adelaide will go. Peronally I think if we finished out of the bottom four it's a good year, ladder wise.

Top teams not sinking anywhere serious in 2014 would be -

Hawthorn, Geelong, Fremantle, Sydney

So for four remaining slots we'd need to do better than at least four of -

North, Carlton, Richmond, Essendon, Port, Gold Coast, Collingwood,

Anyway, I hope in future you can think of better things to do with $200.

I was running a very similar projection this morning. IF ( and it is a big if) that these changes drive improvement, I see us moving from Band 3 (aints, Brissie, wet toast, GwS, Adelaide) into band 2 (North, GC, Richmond, Ess, port, coll) but no chance to move up to band 1 (the rest). Our position will depend upon performances against this group and our draw. May see some sliders (my tip: Coll and maybe Sydney), and some other improvers (bullies, GC?). We should end up somewhere between 7th and 13th. Richmond to finish 9th.

Top 8 possible, but things would need to go really well for us in 14.

Crazier things have happened, and we should have a good draw.

[Dees2014 2,377]

I was running a very similar projection this morning. IF ( and it is a big if) that these changes drive improvement, I see us moving from Band 3 (aints, Brissie, wet toast, GwS, Adelaide) into band 2 (North, GC, Richmond, Ess, port, coll) but no chance to move up to band 1 (the rest). Our position will depend upon performances against this group and our draw. May see some sliders (my tip: Coll and maybe Sydney), and some other improvers (bullies, GC?). We should end up somewhere between 7th and 13th. Richmond to finish 9th.

Top 8 possible, but things would need to go really well for us in 14.

Crazier things have happened, and we should have a good draw.

Carlton - will slide big time. Have recruited very poorly, and have some real weaknesses, and Judd is past his best. I see them mid the second tier, and certainly below us.