Betting market move

[pantaloons 2,019]

So I guess if you do it for one club, you're not really that much more likely to do it for another club.

Except that of those eight coaches, there are a few multiple flags at their second clubs. Malthouse - 3 (2 at his second, 1 at his third), Matthews 3, Barassi 4, Jeans 3, Hughes 4, Worral 5, bentley 2, parkin 3. So those 8 coaches, once they had finished their first coaching gig, ended up with a total of 27 VFL/AFL premierships at their second or third clubs. That's 23.3% of all premierships won by a coach not in his first senior coaching appointment.

Everyone feel better?

[Bang Bang Bang 5,518]

I reckon the betting odds in isolation don't mean much - from memory there was a similar plunge on Ross Lyon to become our coach in 2011 - wish the the punters were onto somethinng then, but alas not.

Having said that I think Roos' comments and lack of denial in the media are pretty telling - he's giving the job serious thought and we are chasing him hard.

It would be interesting to see the reaction if Craig got us winning games a few games (there are some winnable games to finish) towards the end of the year and Roos still got the job.

[beelzebub 22,245]

It may mean somebody ELSE knows something as betting Markets only fluctuate through "weight of money" invested... Seems quite strange that someone SEEMS to have backed Roos with some authority or like some of us, is having a very good guess... I would like to know the size of the biggest wager placed on Roos and the percentage and size of the pool it represents..

or it can mean absolutely nothing more than a punt..

A little story. We'll all climb into the way-back machine and find ourselves at the 1984 Port Augusta Cup.

The cup from Memory was race 6. There were about 11 horses. Now I had been having an OK day pulling bets out my bum. I liked the name of a particular horse and marched up and put 50 each way to a bookie... Within seconds ( and I remember this well for I thought it amazing ) all 4 bookies wound the odds of that horse back to equal fav. Now I went on a hunch ( yes it was the 3rd fav , had run that distance at Adelaide and was coming back from a spell ) but it was just a nag in a race.

it was all perception. Maybe it was my demeanor, maybe it was id won a few that day, maybe because mine was the biggest bet on that horse on the filed to that moment ... who knows. My point is the odds changed dramatically on the back of a whim. I had NO inside info.

The thing is...dont read TOO much into any of this. Its al smoke and mirrors over a relatively small amount of money ( coz the Bookies just WONT let you put anything large down )

As long as they can off load anything bookies just dont care normally but this is an exotic and unlike nags anything could happen. Horses tend to run to form ( in hindsight lol )

If someone spies Roos at a Scorps game... that just might be a tell. Until then, caveat emptor

[The Chazz 4,077]

or it can mean absolutely nothing more than a punt..

A little story. We'll all climb into the way-back machine and find ourselves at the 1984 Port Augusta Cup.

The cup from Memory was race 6. There were about 11 horses. Now I had been having an OK day pulling bets out my bum. I liked the name of a particular horse and marched up and put 50 each way to a bookie... Within seconds ( and I remember this well for I thought it amazing ) all 4 bookies wound the odds of that horse back to equal fav. Now I went on a hunch ( yes it was the 3rd fav , had run that distance at Adelaide and was coming back from a spell ) but it was just a nag in a race.

it was all perception. Maybe it was my demeanor, maybe it was id won a few that day, maybe because mine was the biggest bet on that horse on the filed to that moment ... who knows. My point is the odds changed dramatically on the back of a whim. I had NO inside info.

The thing is...dont read TOO much into any of this. Its al smoke and mirrors over a relatively small amount of money ( coz the Bookies just WONT let you put anything large down )

As long as they can off load anything bookies just dont care normally but this is an exotic and unlike nags anything could happen. Horses tend to run to form ( in hindsight lol )

If someone spies Roos at a Scorps game... that just might be a tell. Until then, caveat emptor

Bookies at a Port Augusta meeting in '84 would absolutely wind the odds back of a horse that a random such as yourself has just punted $50 on a horse. That'd be like putting $500 on it today.

I was at the Burrumbeet Cup one year B59, and the bookies there let you bet on Melbourne races. A considerable bet was taken with 1 bookie for a Tassie horse at around 33-1, they turned it straight in to 25-1 (when I got on), which is not a huge plunge (at that stage), it was just the fact that solid money had come for a roughy from interstate. It started at 8-1 and won by the length of the straight.

The key point that we don't know is what is the size of the pools that these corporates are holding? The alarm bells won't ring if someone walked up and had $50 on Roos. Even after a 2nd bet of $50 within a couple of minutes of the first won't concern the bookies, they might bring him in from $5.50 to $5, but that'd be about it. If they took multiple bets over the space of say 24 hours (I'm tipping it would have to be a minimum of a few thousand in total), especially if there had been minimal interest prior to that, then they would slash odds considerably for sure. So while it may not take huge dollars to bring his odds down, it'd still have to be in the low to mid thousands. My question is why would those bets be placed?

I have a friend that works at Centrebet, I will try and find out some information from him (given it was Centrebet that the HS interviewed yesterday).

FWIW - Roos has drifted on IAS Bet - now out to $2.50. Eade has firmed to $4.75, Williams steady.

[The Chazz 4,077]

or it can mean absolutely nothing more than a punt..

A little story. We'll all climb into the way-back machine and find ourselves at the 1984 Port Augusta Cup.

The cup from Memory was race 6. There were about 11 horses. Now I had been having an OK day pulling bets out my bum. I liked the name of a particular horse and marched up and put 50 each way to a bookie... Within seconds ( and I remember this well for I thought it amazing ) all 4 bookies wound the odds of that horse back to equal fav. Now I went on a hunch ( yes it was the 3rd fav , had run that distance at Adelaide and was coming back from a spell ) but it was just a nag in a race.

it was all perception. Maybe it was my demeanor, maybe it was id won a few that day, maybe because mine was the biggest bet on that horse on the filed to that moment ... who knows. My point is the odds changed dramatically on the back of a whim. I had NO inside info.

The thing is...dont read TOO much into any of this. Its al smoke and mirrors over a relatively small amount of money ( coz the Bookies just WONT let you put anything large down )

As long as they can off load anything bookies just dont care normally but this is an exotic and unlike nags anything could happen. Horses tend to run to form ( in hindsight lol )

If someone spies Roos at a Scorps game... that just might be a tell. Until then, caveat emptor

Was that the horse you backed at Port Augusta? He was a pretty handy horse in his day, sort of a bread and butter type runner, City performer I think.

[Chook 14,602]

Caveat emptor - Let the buyer watch Brady Bunch.

[beelzebub 22,245]

Was that the horse you backed at Port Augusta? He was a pretty handy horse in his day, sort of a bread and butter type runner, City performer I think.

yep.. Bet on the Gutter Cup !!

Ran quite well that day as I remember

As to horses name...... God knows.... Something Hairy lol

Edited July 2, 2013 by belzebub59

[The Chazz 4,077]

yep.. Bet on the Gutter Cup !!

Ran quite well that day as I remember

As to horses name...... God knows.... Something Hairy lol

I meant Caveat Emptor! Think he was running around Vic in the late 90's to mid 00's.

[deanox 8,705]

one hundred and seven

in 114 years there have been 107 premier ship coaches but somehow 9 have flags flags at two clubs?

With multiple flags I think we'd be looking at less than 50 premiership coaches in history. I wonder how many have gone on to coach at a another club?

It would be interesting to know if that 9 reflects 50% of all premiership coaches who have a second crack or 10%.

[deanox 8,705]

Interesting.

51 premiership coaches and only another 20 who got to a Grandfinal but lost.

The top 15 coaches on the premiership won list have coached in 124 grand finals (out of a possible 226?) And won 63 flags between then...

[Grand New Flag 3,226]

A number of Demonlanders have been in contact to ask if I know more about Roos. The answer is: I do not. What we know remains the same: Roos is seriously considering us, I don't believe a decision has been made, I don't expect a decision to be made until after our club finishes its administrative sweep out and replacements have been found. Saying that the commentary from Roos most importantly not ruling himself out of the gig, confirms to me that he is indeed seriously considering and that what I have heard about this since early in the season is accurate.

For the record $1.80 is probably a fair bet. I put money on at $7 but the maximum bet was $20.

[LegsLeoncelli 162]

Chris Judd at one point near the end was about $1.33 with one agency to come to Melbourne

Betting markets like this are for imbeciles

Western Bulldogs were $1.19 to win on Saturday night.

Betting markets are for imbeciles.

[Generation dee 1,336]

Reported on seven news tonight that "Melbourne still remain committed to snaring Paul roos as coach next year, and have reportedly gone cold on Mark Williams."

It was seven news, and it was sandy Roberts. So taken with a grain of salt, however it seems that roos is first, second and third preference. Neil Craig probably rounds out the top 4.

[Chook 14,602]

Reported on seven news tonight that "Melbourne still remain committed to snaring Paul roos as coach next year, and have reportedly gone cold on Mark Williams."

It was seven news, and it was sandy Roberts. So taken with a grain of salt, however it seems that roos is first, second and third preference. Neil Craig probably rounds out the top 4.

Thank god.

[Jaded No More 58,556]

Interesting, this fascination with premiership winning coaches. In the entire history of the AFL/VL only 8 coaches have coached another premiership at a second club; and a lot have tried!

I want a premiership coach not because it guarantees us a flag, but because a premiership coach will put us on the right track culturally.

[Norm Smith's Curse 2,078]

All very interesting.

[LegsLeoncelli 162]

Great contribution.

[What 18,810]

Reported on seven news tonight that "Melbourne still remain committed to snaring Paul roos as coach next year, and have reportedly gone cold on Mark Williams."

It was seven news, and it was sandy Roberts. So taken with a grain of salt, however it seems that roos is first, second and third preference. Neil Craig probably rounds out the top 4.

i have gone cold on Williams too, to be honest.

Roos is clear first choice, and Craig is 2nd.

Not interested in Eade either.

[rpfc 27,589]

All very interesting.

Source?

[beelzebub 22,245]

Id happily have Roos, but like the idea of Williams. Im not raving mad about Eade ( just raving mad !! )

If Craig ups the ante then we cant really do too poorly.

The gods will sort this.

[DemonOX 8,541]

Id happily have Roos, but like the idea of Williams. Im not raving mad about Eade ( just raving mad !! )

If Craig ups the ante then we cant really do too poorly.

The gods will sort this.

I am the same b would be happy, very happy with Roos but if we miss out on him and MW then I would be leaning towards NC.

Don't think there's much diff between Eade and Craig

Edited July 2, 2013 by DemonOX

[DeeZee 6,797]

I want Roos because, when we are after players from other clubs,they will want to come and play under him.

Williams has a reputation as a bit of a looney.

So its Craig or Eade for my second preference.

[Flying Cloud 152]

The eight that have coached two sides to premierships are: Allan Jeans, Checker Hughes, David parkin, Jack Worral, Leigh Matthews, Mick Malthouse, Percy Bentley and Ron Barassi.

None have coached to a premiership at 3 clubs. Good luck Carlton.

[DemonFrog 1,347]

If his hart not in coaching the MFC should not get Roos

Not a fan of Williams think I rather have Mark Neeld back, only joking.

Neil Craig is clearly the best choice for a Senior Coach, he here and knows the players and does not talk BS.

[Red and Bluebeard 2,044]

or it can mean absolutely nothing more than a punt..

A little story. We'll all climb into the way-back machine and find ourselves at the 1984 Port Augusta Cup.

The cup from Memory was race 6. There were about 11 horses. Now I had been having an OK day pulling bets out my bum. I liked the name of a particular horse and marched up and put 50 each way to a bookie... Within seconds ( and I remember this well for I thought it amazing ) all 4 bookies wound the odds of that horse back to equal fav. Now I went on a hunch ( yes it was the 3rd fav , had run that distance at Adelaide and was coming back from a spell ) but it was just a nag in a race.

it was all perception. Maybe it was my demeanor, maybe it was id won a few that day, maybe because mine was the biggest bet on that horse on the filed to that moment ... who knows. My point is the odds changed dramatically on the back of a whim. I had NO inside info.

The thing is...dont read TOO much into any of this. Its al smoke and mirrors over a relatively small amount of money ( coz the Bookies just WONT let you put anything large down )

As long as they can off load anything bookies just dont care normally but this is an exotic and unlike nags anything could happen. Horses tend to run to form ( in hindsight lol )

If someone spies Roos at a Scorps game... that just might be a tell. Until then, caveat emptor

BB, you left out the punchline --- how did the nag run? Did your luck hold?