Can Melbourne win a premiership with its current list?

[Cheap Seats 3,303]

The sport has always been about contested footy. One of the prime reasons we were a terrible team in the Bailey years was because we were deficient at 'hard ball gets', clearances and contested footy.

Meanwhile, down at the Cattery, they were the best in those key areas .... except, nobody really noticed. We all saw the finished product from Geelong and the fantastic ball movement but they were the premier team with regards to contested possessions, hard ball gets and clearances. The stats back it up and besides, it was easy to see.

A few coaches have tried to copy the Geelong model but their teams often left out the one key ingredient. Winning first use of the ball.

PS i always wanted my side to do well... I love the constested side of Footy though - I love watching the Hawks, Swans, Cats, Saints, eagles, Pies etc, etc..... It dosen't take a genious to see what they all have in commone

[Cheesy D. Pun 1,762]

Yes.

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

Of course they can't. Absolutely not.

[DEE fence 4,561]

Of course the current team could become a premiership side, the margins between best and worst now days seem to be pretty narrow and I agree with all the comments about depth of your list. Geelong and Sydney both had an excellent no DH policy that worked really well for them that gave them an edge in team synergy (had an interesting chat with the Costa family about that), and I think Neeld has the same no DH approach which will work for us. But and its a big but is injuries, so much comes down to injuries and the tribunal, we lost Strawbs before the 88 GF, in 2000 half our guys were shattered Farmer had busted ribs, (and Essendon was on fire), Sydney kept Barry and that worked pretty well for them.

That is why if we are top four for a while over the next few years I'd be happy (as long as we stop losing the games we should win in a canter) because there is always a bit of luck in getting up on GF day since the advent of modern footy.

[Dr. Gonzo 22,632]

We are no chance if and until the current crop of younger players (22 and under) develop and become our senior core with further talent topping up each year (at least 2-3 through the draft each year who will be best 22). That puts us at least 5-7 years away from being able to make consistent top 4 finishes with more than half the list turned over in that time. If we can get consistent top 4 finishes we are a chance at a flag but I'd say "no" with the current list based on the above although a core of our junior players will need to still be around.

The key for us is building a successful TEAM with a solid game plan where everyone performs their role (ala Sydney) rather than relying on a couple of superstar messiah's to drag the whole club along with them. That might have worked in the old VFL days but these days you need a hardened team.

[rpfc 27,646]

Of course they can't. Absolutely not.

This is why this a faulty question.

STMJ is right. The 'current' list could never win an AFL flag.

Because the 'current list' only lasts to the end of of the year.

We have to manifest some potential talent and that is a hypothetical.

So stop asking, have a look and critique.

Jones is there, Clark is there, Grimes is getting there, the rest are all running on the spot until the season starts.

[Dr. Gonzo 22,632]

It's an indictment on the coaching and football development at this club over the past decade that, by and large, too many players have failed to live up to potential and never managed to step up to the elite levels suggested by their natural talent.

It's not just the last decade it's been the case for as long as I've been following the club (late 80's) and probably as far back as the 60's. it's an endemic problem of the club. Hopefully Neeld, Craig et al can change that.

[Winners at last 4,853]

Not sure what to say Old Dee

We can't change the past now....... all we can do is move forward

The past is a foreign place. They do things differently there.

"The Go Between", L.P. Hartley

[daisycutter 28,692]

Of course the current list can win a premiership.......in a place called Honalee

[Bitter but optimistic 21,556]

Of course the current list can win a premiership.......in a place called Honalee

Only on Paper DC.

[Return to Glory 7,797]

Depends if they can invent a time machine

[bjDee 1,249]

Dreaming.

Improved - Yes.

Premiership potential - maybe. We all have potential. But there's a huge gap between the actuality we see now and the potential we all like to believe lies within our boys.

But when it comes down to it, there's not enough 'hunger' for mine. Absolute, stop at nothing, intensity, desperation or die trying, resolve. No media appearances, no tricks, no self-delsions, no pretensions, just f'n do it. Not 'be the best you can be', but 'be the best in the competition'.

We are a long way off. Don't know how I come to that conclusion - it's just the vibe.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

The way I see it, we have 6 genuine players right now, and 8 hopefuls. We need basically all of them to become a-grade or close to it at the same time, so probability suggests it's not going to happen. The good news is there are 6 genuine KPP in that lot which is obviously critical. We should be looking at a pretty good spine. There's a chance it will all come together for us but history suggests not. Whoever we have to beat on grand final day will have a dozen or more top-quality players. A few years ago I would have had Morton, Sylvia, Scully, Jurrah, Bennell and McLean in that list, that turned out well huh? Of course there is a chance some of the younger blokes who aren't high draft picks will kick on, but again, the probability of that is really low... can't see Strauss, Tapscott, Jetta, Bail, Garland etc taking their games to another level from this point. Hopefully we at least get a few years of finals footy, after 6 horrible years, at this stage i'll take it.

Watts

Clark
Jones
Frawley
Grimes

Howe

Jamar?
McKenzie?
Blease?
Trengove?
T.McDonald?
Toumpas?
Viney?
Hogan?

[Range Rover 1,935]

Agree with those that say the list as it stands today - the current list - can't win the flag. But it can be transformed into a premiership list through astute coaching and a dramatic overhaul in culture.

This is Mark Neeld's job. His assistants' jobs. We will know in about five months time whether the seed for greatness is there.

Edited March 12, 2013 by Range Rover

[dee-tox 4,829]

Good discussion, and as most have stated unless the midfield can improve dramatically we won't be in contention for some time.

The list still has too many NQRs. Nicholson, McKenzie, Bail, Spencer, Joel Mac, Fitzpatrick et al. Then there's the rejects (Gillies, Pedersen, Sellar, Rodan, Byrnes).

From last season only Jones, Clark, Howe and Grimes were good enough.

Blease and Sylvia can do it, but not consistently. Jamar, Frawley, Garland, Davey, Trengove, Tapscott, Watts, Jetta need to do it now.

Viney and Toumpas are possibilities.

Still a looong way to go.

[Roger Mellie 3,603]

We've got 2/3 of a premiership list:

Back Frawley Back

Watts McDonald Grimes

Barry Trengove Blease

Howe Hogan Toumpas

Dawes Clark Fwd

Gawn Viney Jones

I/C I/C I/C Sub

There are a few question marks in there: Gawn, Watts, Dawes and the rookies and a few others (not listed) that may make the grade

[Barney Rubble 1,576]

We definitely won't win with the current list or even within the next 3 years.

I would like us to be competitive, winning 10 games this year, then 12-13 the next and maybe top 4 the next.

If that happens, then we maybe a premiership chance in 4 years.

Remember the top sides are going to lose players either to retirement or free agency in the next 3 years.

That, to me is the time we should be building towards with clever acquisitions and draft selections.

The new culture is only one year old. It will take a few years of winning consistently to become premiership contenders.

[Hannibal 5,814]

The way I see it, we have 6 genuine players right now, and 8 hopefuls. We need basically all of them to become a-grade or close to it at the same time, so probability suggests it's not going to happen. The good news is there are 6 genuine KPP in that lot which is obviously critical. We should be looking at a pretty good spine. There's a chance it will all come together for us but history suggests not. Whoever we have to beat on grand final day will have a dozen or more top-quality players. A few years ago I would have had Morton, Sylvia, Scully, Jurrah, Bennell and McLean in that list, that turned out well huh? Of course there is a chance some of the younger blokes who aren't high draft picks will kick on, but again, the probability of that is really low... can't see Strauss, Tapscott, Jetta, Bail, Garland etc taking their games to another level from this point. Hopefully we at least get a few years of finals footy, after 6 horrible years, at this stage i'll take it.

Watts

Clark

Jones

Frawley

Grimes

Howe

Jamar?

McKenzie?

Blease?

Trengove?

T.McDonald?

Toumpas?

Viney?

Hogan?

How can you have Watts as one of your 6 genuine players ? He's not even a lock in the team.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

How can you have Watts as one of your 6 genuine players ? He's not even a lock in the team.

I'm don't have a diabolical obsession with convincing everyone he is crap, take it elsewhere mate

[The Chazz 4,077]

The way I see it, we have 6 genuine players right now, and 8 hopefuls. We need basically all of them to become a-grade or close to it at the same time, so probability suggests it's not going to happen. The good news is there are 6 genuine KPP in that lot which is obviously critical. We should be looking at a pretty good spine. There's a chance it will all come together for us but history suggests not. Whoever we have to beat on grand final day will have a dozen or more top-quality players. A few years ago I would have had Morton, Sylvia, Scully, Jurrah, Bennell and McLean in that list, that turned out well huh? Of course there is a chance some of the younger blokes who aren't high draft picks will kick on, but again, the probability of that is really low... can't see Strauss, Tapscott, Jetta, Bail, Garland etc taking their games to another level from this point. Hopefully we at least get a few years of finals footy, after 6 horrible years, at this stage i'll take it.

Watts

Clark

Jones

Frawley

Grimes

Howe

Jamar?

McKenzie?

Blease?

Trengove?

T.McDonald?

Toumpas?

Viney?

Hogan?

Good post C&B, totally agree. And, once most of the names in that bottom list move to join the top list, then the need for the bottom list replacements to step up isn't as important (for the time being). I think that's when we will be able to say that we have a potential premiership winning team/list.

We've got 2/3 of a premiership list:

Back Frawley Back

Watts McDonald Grimes

Barry Trengove Blease

Howe Hogan Toumpas

Dawes Clark Fwd

Gawn Viney Jones

I/C I/C I/C Sub

There are a few question marks in there: Gawn, Watts, Dawes and the rookies and a few others (not listed) that may make the grade

I don't see how Barry can be included in that list at this stage. Other than that, it's pretty close to being on the money. I would like to revisit this team at the end of the season to see who has come on.

[deeko 937]

We've got 2/3 of a premiership list:

Back Frawley Back

Watts McDonald Grimes

Barry Trengove Blease

Howe Hogan Toumpas

Dawes Clark Fwd

Gawn Viney Jones

I/C I/C I/C Sub

There are a few question marks in there: Gawn, Watts, Dawes and the rookies and a few others (not listed) that may make the grade

I really love your optimism here Roger and would love for you to be correct.

Unfortunately in my eyes your 2/3 of a premiership team is 2/3 filled with nothing more than unknowns and potential players.

Not saying I don't like it (mine would be similar if putting it down) I just think we will know a lot more come round 24.

It's going to be a very interesting season

[Hannibal 5,814]

I'm don't have a diabolical obsession with convincing everyone he is crap, take it elsewhere mate

Even if you don't agree with my assessment of him surely you can't believe that he's yet made it to a genuine core premiership capable player ?

I've never seen more delusional supporters over a single player.

[stuie 7,374]

How can you have Watts as one of your 6 genuine players ? He's not even a lock in the team.

[Barney Rubble 1,576]

I was a supporter of Watts when we first picked him up in the draft.

A friend of mine who was / is a recruitment person for P/A at the time said to me that when the U/18's were being played that year at ETIHAD.

The texts were going around to DB at the time said about Nic Natanui. What can the best development coach in Aust. do with a talent like NN.

DB's reply was " And bears can S**T in the woods.

I read from that statement that DB would have preferred NN but was hamstrung by a board that wanted JW no matter what.

I have lost all faith in JW as a footballer, yes he has some skills, but that doesn't make him a footballer.

Last year pre Xmas I was hounded by D'Landers for leaving him out of my best 22.

This year I think along the same lines, he has skills, but he needs to show some guts. Something he has lacked for the past 4 years.

If you think JW at this stage is AA like you did last year or the Messiah to resurrect the Dees to where they should be, then think again.

I know it sounds like another JW thread, but it's just that a lot think he is a lock in the 22. Last year it was he was going to be AA CHF

now it's best 22 as HBF.

Just give up, he is an average footballer at the most.

GO DEES

[stuie 7,374]

I was a supporter of Watts when we first picked him up in the draft.

A friend of mine who was / is a recruitment person for P/A at the time said to me that when the U/18's were being played that year at ETIHAD.

The texts were going around to DB at the time said about Nic Natanui. What can the best development coach in Aust. do with a talent like NN.

DB's reply was " And bears can S**T in the woods.

I read from that statement that DB would have preferred NN but was hamstrung by a board that wanted JW no matter what.

I have lost all faith in JW as a footballer, yes he has some skills, but that doesn't make him a footballer.

Last year pre Xmas I was hounded by D'Landers for leaving him out of my best 22.

This year I think along the same lines, he has skills, but he needs to show some guts. Something he has lacked for the past 4 years.

If you think JW at this stage is AA like you did last year or the Messiah to resurrect the Dees to where they should be, then think again.

I know it sounds like another JW thread, but it's just that a lot think he is a lock in the 22. Last year it was he was going to be AA CHF

now it's best 22 as HBF.

Just give up, he is an average footballer at the most.

GO DEES

He's 21.