Watts -v- Naitinui: The Definitive Analysis (Definitive, ie long!!)

[AllenIsLord13 1]

The below was devised as I am a hapless Deez supporter surrounded by bandwagon drug-addled Eagles fans in WA... and attempts to remedy the eternal query...

Watts or NicNat?

ie Should Deez have taken NicNat/ Why didn't they/ What were WCE options/ How it shaped our future...

Synopsis:

- WCE would NEVER have taken Watts as they had a massive glut of key forwards at the time (Lynch, Graham, Edwards, Kennedy, McKinley, Jones, Hansen)

- MELB had a massive hole at the key position area, and had no immediate need for a raw ruckman (ie CHF = Neitz, Robertson, Miller, Holland, Dunn)

- In saying that, in my opinion, Melbourne made a MASSIVE mistake in retiring Jeff White who was in career best form. Even though his retirement allowed Jamar to blossom, it was a massive step backwards as we STILL don't have a reliable 2nd ruck to this day. Paul Johnson (a WCE reject!) was the 2nd options at the time....;

- NicNat has ONLY prospered as he has been allowed to flourish behind the BEST ruckman in the comp. He has a millionth of the pressure Watts has to perform at his position.

- At the end of the day, in 2008, WCE were 2 years removed from a PREMIERSHIP! They still have premiership players to this day! Against that, Demons finished 5th, and have NEVER finished higher than 12th after that year! How could ANY player "thrive" in that environment?

- To wit, if WCE took Watts, he would be The New Age Hansen - a capable back-up playing on winning teams.

- If Melbourne took NicNat, as at 2012 he would STILL be a "raw talent" averaging 10 hitouts, but less than 5 possessions per game, and more renowned for his hairstyle and dating Lara Bingle...

- Somwhat of a moot point, as WCE intended to take Rich if they didn't take NicNat...

- Conclusion: WCE's winning culture enabled the ultimate fruition of NicNat. Melbourne/ Bailey's rebuilding plan set the club/ Watts back uncalculable years in maturation... Watts needed a Neitz to teach him... instead, he saw capable senior leaders, ala Robbo, Yze, White shown the door, leaving a #1 pick who was still playing against HIGH-SCHOOLERS (Note: NicNat was playing WAFL with ADULTS, AND was a year older) to lead a team of rabble into a new era????

WTF DID THEY THINK WOULD HAPPEN!!!

Ultimately, I think both teams made the right draft pick...its just the rest of the list management which proved to be heavily deficient! Too-early retirements, bad picks elsewhere....

Example - how's Lucas Cook travelling...compared to Jack "Everyone Knew Who He Was" Darling!!!

The Stats!

Watt if…

2008 Draft (ie 2009 onwards)

#1 Jack Watts (Melbourne) – March 1991

#2 Nic Natinui (West Coast) – May 1990

Years preceding

West Coast, 2006 (Premiers!), 2007 (5^th, lost Judd, gained Kennedy, Masten & Notte), 2008 (15^th), 2009 (11^th), 2010 (16^th), 2011 (4^th)

Melbourne, 2006 (5^th), 2007 (14^th), 2008 (16^th), 2009 (16^th), 2010 (12^th), 2011 (13^th)

2005

(WCE) [Tyson Stenglein; Jaymie Graham; Mark LeCras; Aaron Edwards; Matt Rosa; Mitch Moron; Shannon Hurn; Matt Priddis]

(Melb) [Clint Bartram; Matthew Warnock; Matthew Bate; Lynden Dunn; Nathan Jones]

2006

(WCE) Mitch Brown (16), Eric MacKenzie (29) [ben McKinley; Will Schofield]

(Melb) James Frawley (12), Ricky Petterd (30), Colin Garland (46) [Michael Newton; Simon Buckley]

2007

(WCE) Chris Masten (3), Brad Ebert (13), Tony Notte (20), Scott Selwood (22) [Matt Spanger; Josh Kennedy; Beau Wilkes]

(Melb) Cale Morton (4), Jack Grimes (14), Addam Maric (21) [stefan Martin]

IF Melbourne had taken Natinui #1 in 2008:

• they already had Jamar (2006, 23yo: He averaged 10 hit-outs and 4 disposals and kicked 10 goals and 2 behinds for the complete season; 2008: Jamar played 14 games and averaged 8 disposals and 19 hit-outs and kicked 4 goals. He ranked 9th in hit-outs per game; 2010: averaging 29 hit-outs, 12 disposals and three contested marks per game, with four goals over the first seven rounds All-Australian) and Jeff White (age 31, 2004 AllAustralian, 2005 facial injury. 2005/06 3^rd highest hitouts, 2007 career high 18.5 disposals, Dean Bailey replaces with Jamar)
  
• Paul Johnson (2005-2010); Stefan Martin (2008)
  

West Coast takes Watts?:

• Already had Lynch (2002); McDougall (2002-2006); Staker (2003); Hansen (2004); Graham (2005); Edwards (2005); Jones (2007); McKinley (2007); Kennedy (2008); Spangher (2008); Wilkes (2008); Notte (2008) = buried!
  

Natinui highest career hitouts = 457 in 2011

White = from 2004-2007 never lower than 461, highest 532 2006

Jamar = 643 in 2010 (first full season)

Watts Scouting Report

An athletic, strong marking tall forward with pace who is an excellent shot on goal, Watts was a Vic Metro U18 Representative in 2008, winning the Larke Medal and All-Australian honours.

Strong-marking forward who oozes talent with his ground-breaking pace and his exceptional ability to read the play. The reliable kick for goal was a standout at the U18 championships and a member of Vic Metro’s winning team, earning All-Australian honours and the Larke Medal.

Still playing for his school in 2009!

Natinui

Rising Star nomination 2010!

Ruckman who can do it all. Outstanding athlete, with admirable vertical leap and serious pace. Tackling is also a strength. Dual U18 All-Australian. “We’re really pleased to have Nick at the club. How much he plays next year will depend on his preparation and his form ... it is a step up and we will manage him through that.” Club

2009 Plays WAFL

[leucopogon 1,519]

Nice effort!

The lengths people go to defend this pea heart staggers me.

[jackaub 1,402]

Nice effort!

The lengths people go to defend this pea heart staggers me.

Agree so he will be playing an important role in 5 years lets hope Wrong choice just so typical of the recruitmrnt of MFC rarely have they got it right

rRemebering we finished ahead of Geelong in 2006 Just so sad just so bad im mad

[Little Richard 6,265]

Addam Maric at 21? Jeez what a waste, S.Selwood would have been a bit nicer.

Edited May 11, 2012 by DeeTermination

[jumbo returns 6,741]

Is there a stat for 'compete?'

Is there a stat for 'love for the contest?'

Is there a stat for 'hard nut?'

[pitmaster 3,589]

you lost me when you said White should not have been moved on.

the new centre circle rule cruelled him as a ruck - he had to be remade into a forward.

[beelzebub 23,390]

Ive been a stalwart supporter for Watts since the start...and I still think he will get there, but im becoming impatient. Iquite frankly just dont understand why he hasnt come on..and wheren he shows signs slips backwards...time and time again. But I will persever with my faith with him..He does have something.

having said that. Nick Nat has proved a far greater pickup for WCE than Jack has been for us. Simple as

[Norm Smith's Curse 2,602]

You can analyse ever draft in the last ten and wonder what drugs our recruiters were on, but most (not WC but many) would have taken Watts over most others. I noticed that Tery Wallace just called Watts the biggest mistake of the 2008 draft. Chris Yarren has really come on.

[RalphiusMaximus 6,102]

Once again I have to look at the statistics since nobody has yet come up with an accurate measurement for pea-heartedness.

Nic Nat - Games 60, avg disposals 12, av marks 1.7, av goals 0.6, av tackles 3.6, av hitouts 18.3, disposal efficiency 67.1%

J. Watts - Games 45, avg disposals 14.3, av marks 5.1, av goals 0.8, av tackles 1.7, av hitouts 0.4, disposal efficiency 74.4%

So, Watts has played 75% of the games, is the best part of a full year younger, has more disposals, marks and goals per game but fewer tackles and hitouts. Given that he doesn't actually play in the ruck it's not unexpected that he should fare so poorly in the hitout stats. To summarise, Watts is younger, has played less games, gets more of the ball and does more with it. Yet he is still considered the lesser of the two players and consistently hammered by the media and supporters for a perception that he lacks "heart."

Edit: Stats courtesy of http://www.footywire.com/

(except for disposal efficiency, which came from www.afl.com.au)

Edited May 13, 2012 by RalphiusMaximus

[Guest José Mourinho]

Analysis? Comparison?

For what purpose?

Who cares?

You're living in the past man, quit living in the past...

[hardtack 10,859]

Nice effort!

The lengths people go to defend this pea heart staggers me.

Yeah, RalphusMaximius' stats say it all really, don't they... although I think it's maybe a little harsh calling him a "pea heart"; Nic-Nat isn't really that bad!

[Jordie_tackles 354]

Once again I have to look at the statistics since nobody has yet come up with an accurate measurement for pea-heartedness.

Nic Nat - Games 60, avg disposals 12, av marks 1.7, av goals 0.6, av tackles 3.6, av hitouts 18.3, disposal efficiency 67.1%

J. Watts - Games 45, avg disposals 14.3, av marks 5.1, av goals 0.8, av tackles 1.7, av hitouts 0.4, disposal efficiency 74.4%

So, Watts has played 75% of the games, is the best part of a full year younger, has more disposals, marks and goals per game but fewer tackles and hitouts. Given that he doesn't actually play in the ruck it's not unexpected that he should fare so poorly in the hitout stats. To summarise, Watts is younger, has played less games, gets more of the ball and does more with it. Yet he is still considered the lesser of the two players and consistently hammered by the media and supporters for a perception that he lacks "heart."

Edit: Stats courtesy of http://www.footywire.com/

(except for disposal efficiency, which came from www.afl.com.au)

use of stats is not recognised by demonland try again

[Nascent 9,320]

I hear a lot of people bemoan the fact that we could have had both if it wasn't for the Kruezer cup. In my honest opinion I think nic-nat really hasn't done that much to deserve the hype and he only gets it because he looks explosive. But ffs he can't even kick the footy properly. How Mike put him in his top 50 players is absolutely beyond me. If he was running around in a Melbourne jumper I bet the media wouldn't being creaming there pants over him and if we had both picks 1 and 2 and selected Watts and Nic-Nat respectively, they would be having a field day about our poor recruiting and the fact we let Hurley, Yarran, Rich and Ziebell etc slip past us.

Both Watts and Nic-Nat have a long way to go.

[Jordie_tackles 354]

I hear a lot of people bemoan the fact that we could have had both if it wasn't for the Kruezer cup. In my honest opinion I think nic-nat really hasn't done that much to deserve the hype and he only gets it because he looks explosive. But ffs he can't even kick the footy properly. How Mike put him in his top 50 players is absolutely beyond me. If he was running around in a Melbourne jumper I bet the media wouldn't being creaming there pants over him and if we had both picks 1 and 2 and selected Watts and Nic-Nat respectively, they would be having a field day about our poor recruiting and the fact we let Hurley, Yarran, Rich and Ziebell etc slip past us.

Both Watts and Nic-Nat have a long way to go.

true, i agree, he doenst get that much of the ball, he IS explosive but he is like Dangerfield 3 years ago or 2, only gets it 15 times a game, until he pushes this upto 25 or so it wont be much, he should get alot of cheap ball being as tall and athletic as he is but he doesnt.......

[RalphiusMaximus 6,102]

Personally, I'd like to see Watts play as a winger rather than a forward. We have enough talls in the forward 50 that we can spare him from there. Richo was switched to the wing and only barely missed a brownlow. Watts can play a similar role and really set up our forward play with his great foot skills. He'd need to work on his endurance, but he has more than enough pace to pull it off.

[rhaz 342]

So does this thread have a point to make...? or is it just stating a bunch of information that everyone already knows.

The lengths people go to defend this pea heart staggers me.

Gee it takes a big man to sit at his keyboard and type a post like this.

[Face Your Demons 175]

We took him because he WAS the best that year. He WOULD have been taken at number one no matter who had first choice. This whole topic has been done to death. If we did make a mistake its a mistake every other club would have made.

[Bobby McKenzie 2,401]

So does this thread have a point to make...? or is it just stating a bunch of information that everyone already knows.

Gee it takes a big man to sit at his keyboard and type a post like this.

Exactly my thoughts too. He's probably never played footy in his life. Except at primary school maybe!

[John Dee 445]

I am well aware of Watts' deficencies but I am also aware of Natanui's.

I would still take Watts in a heartbeat. Ten possessions a match and bugger all goals has the pundits slavering over what, the old athletic highlight!

[Supermercado 2,802]

Agree with the OP in that if it had gone the other way around NicNat would be floundering trying to work with our midfield and that Watts would be a bit-part player with the Eagles but probably looking the goods because the team is playing well.

The upside to NicNat would be a.) a marketable player that would get fickle kids interested (which is hardly a reason to draft somebody) and;

b.) a highlight reel player who would at least 'make things happen' (CLICHE!) in the middle.

Given the choice I'd probably have him now just to have a buzz player but I'm still holding out hope for Watts to go supernova.

Edited May 14, 2012 by Supermercado

[Norm Smith's Curse 2,602]

id take Chris Yarren over both - but now im getting repetitive.

[Jordie_tackles 354]

id take Chris Yarren over both - but now im getting repetitive.

what

[Norm Smith's Curse 2,602]

if you ask why you havent watched him. Ever wondered why in our games against St Kilda and Hawthorn the opposition locked the ball in their forward 50 for so much of the game?

Edited May 14, 2012 by Norm Smith's Curse

[RalphiusMaximus 6,102]

if you ask why you havent watched him. Ever wondered why in our games against St Kilda and Hawthorn the opposition locked the ball in their forward 50 for so much of the game?

It's because our contested ball-winners are prone to a panicked 40m snap in the direction of our goals and most of our defenders can't kick. This means that either one of our defenders gets it and kicks it straight to an opponent or one of our stoppage players gets it and snaps blindly to a cluster of opposing players on the 50m line. Either way it comes right back in to start the cycle over again.

[Little Richard 6,265]

id take Chris Yarren over both - but now im getting repetitive.

Not Hurley??