Changes for next week

[titan_uranus 25,020]

So who are the elite forwards at the Bulldogs?

I'd take Brad Johnson, Mitch Hahn and Robert Murphy over anyone we've got at the moment. Might not be tall, but they can play tall and you can rely on them to score goals each week.

But you make a good point, in that we don't necessarily need height in the forward line, we just need a group of players who work well together and can find the goals. More importantly, we need to work on getting the ball to our forwards in an efficient manner.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

I'd take Brad Johnson, Mitch Hahn and Robert Murphy over anyone we've got at the moment. Might not be tall, but they can play tall and you can rely on them to score goals each week.

But you make a good point, in that we don't necessarily need height in the forward line, we just need a group of players who work well together and can find the goals. More importantly, we need to work on getting the ball to our forwards in an efficient manner.

While Johson, Hahn and Murphy are very capable players, the skills of their midfield dont overcome their lack of a tall marking forward in the past. Its hampered them at times over recent years. I wonder how they deal with that this year.

[Freak 100]

You comparison is laughable. Spencer had 3 kicks and a total of 8 disposals. Did you not take note that kick to handball ratio was important? I assumed I did not need to mention that volume of disposals would also impact. But I guess since Spencer had less than half the disposals of the two players you mentioned and a kick to handball ratio 20% less than Green or Mclean doesn't discount your argument. Maybe your Auskick coach could explain it to you on the weekend....

if your not happy with the spencer stats how about this:

According to your theory Jones(78%) is a better disposer of the footy than Mclean(74%) and Green(67%). Not to mention Frawley(82%) and Buckley(87%) being in the top 5 efficiency ratings in our team. laughable stats.

Let's not stop there. When you think of the best kicks in the league, lets say Hodge(70%), GIlbee (61%), GOddard(62%) Stevie Johnson(59%) Nathan Brown (56%) Bryce Gibbs (67%) Dustin Fletcher (71%), Mcleod (70%) and Griffen(70%).

These players, regarded as being silky and/or great disposers of the footy must be worse than Rhys Palmer(73%), C.Ling(88%), Cameron CLoke (81%), Swan(82%), Stanton(81%) and Jobe Watson(72%).

If your going to take Mortons 80% stat on its merits and refuse to see how the stat is bull dust, then all of these stats are true and reflective as well.

[Demon_Tingles 211]

Guys. It was round one and we were beaten because our disposal was poor but stop blaming the midfielders. Our forwards were kick chasing all day there were so many times where we had it on the forward 50 or wing and looked up and not one player in our hot spot 20-25 out from goal. Forwards were lazy and this needs to be assessed before we make any improvement and hurt teams on the scoreboard. After all we kicked 67 points :angry: That is disgusting and the point of having forwards is to kick goals so why would they be kick chasing on the frigging wing. Lazy forwards is the case so stop blaming the midfield they did their best.

[demoniac 1,333]

Can't see how any of the debutants could be dropped.

Bailey has said Spencer will play. Cheney had 22 possies and took a strong contested mark in defence. Bennell showed good positioning and composure. Jetta got into the right positions and with a bit of luck could have kicked a few. No doubt they will go back to Casey at some point through the season as they tire or lose form but no reason for that yet. Its a novel concept but lets pick on form.

I'd bring in Dunn and use him as a forward. He'd be a better target man than Pettard and Bate and has the tank also to go into the midfield.

Like to bring Martin in too if he is fit. Garland is a tall but can play on smalls effectively so don't think we are overloading on talls. Martin can provide Ruck cover and key forward/defensive cover.

As for who'd go out. Maybe Bartram and Morton. I'd make Sylvia earn his recall and Maric may need another game at Casey.

I did read in this thread that Bruce is a class player. Not for mine. Kicking is too fiddy-fiddy. Green didn't have much of an impact either. Solid players who may have been better in stronger teams.

[dee-luded 2,959]

I'd bring in Dunn and use him as a forward. He'd be a better target man than Pettard and Bate and has the tank also to go into the midfield.

Like to bring Martin in too if he is fit. Garland is a tall but can play on smalls effectively so don't think we are overloading on talls. Martin can provide Ruck cover and key forward/defensive cover.

As for who'd go out. Maybe Bartram and Morton. I'd make Sylvia earn his recall and Maric may need another game at Casey.

I did read in this thread that Bruce is a class player. Not for mine. Kicking is too fiddy-fiddy. Green didn't have much of an impact either. Solid players who may have been better in stronger teams.

Well written 'demoniac'. I agree with all you've stated.

[Lil_red_fire_engine 11,183]

if your not happy with the spencer stats how about this:

According to your theory Jones(78%) is a better disposer of the footy than Mclean(74%) and Green(67%). Not to mention Frawley(82%) and Buckley(87%) being in the top 5 efficiency ratings in our team. laughable stats.

Let's not stop there. When you think of the best kicks in the league, lets say Hodge(70%), GIlbee (61%), GOddard(62%) Stevie Johnson(59%) Nathan Brown (56%) Bryce Gibbs (67%) Dustin Fletcher (71%), Mcleod (70%) and Griffen(70%).

These players, regarded as being silky and/or great disposers of the footy must be worse than Rhys Palmer(73%), C.Ling(88%), Cameron CLoke (81%), Swan(82%), Stanton(81%) and Jobe Watson(72%).

If your going to take Mortons 80% stat on its merits and refuse to see how the stat is bull dust, then all of these stats are true and reflective as well.

At least you are finally trying to back up your case with substance. Its unfortunate that I cannot find their kicking efficiency only as I would think that Hodge (55% K2H), Gilbee(63% K2H) and Goddard (46% K2H) are distorted by their low kick to handball ratio. Gibbs and Mcloud are beautiful kicks and their low effectiveness may be because they had such high numbers (24 and 25 kicks respectively) or they had a bad night. Either way it supports my case that 81% effectiveness is above these players you call elite. The other elite you have mentioned are either very canny shots at goal (Brown, ohnson) or have a penetrating boot on them (Fletcher, Griffen). As good as it looks at times I would not rate them as elite based on my definition (ability to hit targets 80% or more) and it does not suprise me that the statistics support this argument.

Ling, Cloke and Swan are good kicks and Stanton proves that anyone can have a good day.

Happy to look at this again next week and see what the stats show.

[mo64 5,875]

At least you are finally trying to back up your case with substance. Its unfortunate that I cannot find their kicking efficiency only as I would think that Hodge (55% K2H), Gilbee(63% K2H) and Goddard (46% K2H) are distorted by their low kick to handball ratio. Gibbs and Mcloud are beautiful kicks and their low effectiveness may be because they had such high numbers (24 and 25 kicks respectively) or they had a bad night. Either way it supports my case that 81% effectiveness is above these players you call elite. The other elite you have mentioned are either very canny shots at goal (Brown, ohnson) or have a penetrating boot on them (Fletcher, Griffen). As good as it looks at times I would not rate them as elite based on my definition (ability to hit targets 80% or more) and it does not suprise me that the statistics support this argument.

Ling, Cloke and Swan are good kicks and Stanton proves that anyone can have a good day.

Happy to look at this again next week and see what the stats show.

BRFE, your stats tell us nothing because the percentages don't factor in whether the kicks are short or long. Players can chip the ball around which inflate their percentage.

And you've obviously never seen Griffen play if you don't believe that he's an elite kick.

[Chook 15,013]

At least you are finally trying to back up your case with substance. Its unfortunate that I cannot find their kicking efficiency only as I would think that Hodge (55% K2H), Gilbee(63% K2H) and Goddard (46% K2H) are distorted by their low kick to handball ratio. Gibbs and Mcloud are beautiful kicks and their low effectiveness may be because they had such high numbers (24 and 25 kicks respectively) or they had a bad night. Either way it supports my case that 81% effectiveness is above these players you call elite. The other elite you have mentioned are either very canny shots at goal (Brown, ohnson) or have a penetrating boot on them (Fletcher, Griffen). As good as it looks at times I would not rate them as elite based on my definition (ability to hit targets 80% or more) and it does not suprise me that the statistics support this argument.

Ling, Cloke and Swan are good kicks and Stanton proves that anyone can have a good day.

Happy to look at this again next week and see what the stats show.

Effective disposal = ball goes to team-mate

Good disposal = ball goes to team-mate in a good position

Case in point: Ball kicked 20 m backward for no apparent reason other than to maintain possession of the ball = effective disposal. But a ball kicked into a vacant forward 50 with Aaron Davey sprinting towards it = good disposal, if not "effective."

[grazman 7,436]

I'll go against the grain here and say Colin Sylvia should not be brought back in this week. He's a repeat offender and he's served a one match suspension. According to Casey watchers he played one quarter of committed footy in response. Weak as [censored]. I'm not sure what the internal punishment is, but firstly I'd hope that it was more than one match, and secondly that when the suspension was served that he was only promoted back into the seniors based on his attitude and performance at Casey (which appears to be lacking). This is about consistency and leadership. The coach and the club aren't just coaching for the match against Collingwood they're coaching for the rest of the season and next. To let things slide because we didn't kick enough goals in rd 1 would be to reinforce a very bad example IMO.

I have a lot of faith in Bailey I think he'll give all the debutants at least another week to consolidate their lessons before sending some of them back.

[jacey 333]

I'll go against the grain here and say Colin Sylvia should not be brought back in this week.

If Colin had a shocker for Casey and showed nothing, I couldn't care less if he doesn't get picked.

Out: Bode

In: Whelan

[grazman 7,436]

If Colin had a shocker for Casey and showed nothing, I couldn't care less if he doesn't get picked.

Out: Bode

In: Whelan

Gold.

[Al`s DEMONS 0]

we all know pretty much we wont win a lot of games this year, so the key is to give the kids blocks of 4-6 games regardless of form, encourage them to play their natural game whilst sticking to the gameplan. mistakes will happen, create a reasuring and positive mindset for them. Sylvia can stay in the sinbin for a bit longer. no changes this week.

[stueyspencer no12 73]

Is there any chance at all of this forward line?

Davey Miller/Bate Maric

Wonaeamirri Sylvia Jetta

Strict instructions not to bomb long, with Miller and Bate as roaming forwards. Keep the ball wide near the forward line and take advantage of monstrous forward pressure and frequent ball ups/throw ins. The purpose of having Miller and Bate as dual CHFs is to have them create marking contests at around the 70-30 meters from goal range. Keep the ball in contested situations at all times and maximize the ability of our in-and-under midfield to utilize their tackling and contested ball-winning skills.

This would be a unique and thoroughly disconcerting (for the opponent) attacking game-style that focuses on time spent inside 50, rather than number of entries or marks in that area.

Thoughts? Feel free to flame away, but it's something I'd love to see.

I agree that bombing long is a last option for midfield and half forwards but it must be AN option if players are under pressure-as ours often are!

My judgment may be pox, but read Mike Sheahan or Martin Flanagan [who did make a howler re Jace Bode]Or remember Gary Lyon--often. Any team must have a tall forward who can create a contest if the ball has to be kicked long

[stueyspencer no12 73]

Yeah, no individual is to blame. It was Bailey's fault...

1.Bate has played one game at FF. One effing game!

2.Delivery to the forwards was where we let ourselves down, maybe the are too precise and should attack the square.

3.Buckley on Scarlett? Struggling to recall that one, also struggling to recall how that match-up would inspire a 20 goal loss. Scarlett kick 9 that day?

But it's good you didn't blame Buckley. We don't want to single anyone out for blame...

It was Bailey's fault...

Buckley started on Scarlett when we played the Cats in about round 19 last year--you may not have seen it or want to believe it--but it's true.

Blame Bailey?--well, not particularly. As the Flanagan piece makes plain there's a team of coaches.But I'm concerned that an approach used through the pre-season [and remember we beat Brisbane in Queensland in the 2nd last match with Newton kicking 3 out of 11] was changed for round 1.

I do agree that delivery to forwards was poor--but it often is at Melbourne. And that's why the long kicking option must be available if players can't pick out a forward--especially with the new rule meaning that the ball can't be punched through. Do you agree with me that this rule makes scrimmages in the goal square much more likely?

[Goodvibes 3,596]

I agree that bombing long is a last option for midfield and half forwards but it must be AN option if players are under pressure-as ours often are!

I agree. McDonald found space forward of centre and delivered to a leading Miller (who missed the set shot) in the last quarter. It's the only time I can remember one of our midfielders finding enough space to break a line, compose himself and kick to a forward and have them mark inside 50. And this was when the game was dead and the pressure was off. A key forward with a strong aggressive approach, prepared to neutralize a contest and create a crumb is a must - whether it be Miller, Johnson, Martin or Ben Holland! Our forward strength lies in our smalls. We must give them opportunities.

[Lil_red_fire_engine 11,183]

BRFE, your stats tell us nothing because the percentages don't factor in whether the kicks are short or long. Players can chip the ball around which inflate their percentage.

And you've obviously never seen Griffen play if you don't believe that he's an elite kick.

Griffen is a beautiful long kick on the run. His first quarter in particular on the weekend proved that. Across the run of a normal game where kicks are varying lengths and degrees of difficulty do I think he hits in excess of 80% of targets most weeks. No. If you kick the ball 20 metres 3 times effectively you are still better placed than 2 50metre kicks where you turn the second one over.

[LeBron James 41]

http://www.melbournefc.com.au/news/newsart...95/default.aspx

MELBOURNE is likely to stick with its four debutants from round one for Saturday's clash against arch-rival Collingwood at the MCG, according to coach Dean Bailey.

[rusty_kingswood 0]

Glad to see (Perhaps Bennell may miss out), but consistency is the key here.

I think Spencer will have a much much better show against Fraser. No where near as strong as Hamish.

[DaveyJones'sLocker 647]

If Colin had a shocker for Casey and showed nothing, I couldn't care less if he doesn't get picked.

Out: Bode

In: Whelan

Bode?

[stueyspencer no12 73]

I agree. McDonald found space forward of centre and delivered to a leading Miller (who missed the set shot) in the last quarter. It's the only time I can remember one of our midfielders finding enough space to break a line, compose himself and kick to a forward and have them mark inside 50. And this was when the game was dead and the pressure was off. A key forward with a strong aggressive approach, prepared to neutralize a contest and create a crumb is a must - whether it be Miller, Johnson, Martin or Ben Holland! Our forward strength lies in our smalls. We must give them opportunities.

you're quite right. And a few minutes later there was a decent pass to P.J who goaled. But there were a hell of a lot of hopeless passes under pressure to, for example, Bate leading to the boundary line.

If that's where he is, it's not so bad--after all his opponent willl be thereabouts also. But at that point the front of the square option is a good one--provided there is a tall to offer a contest. Incidentally Holland was bloody good at that

[Guest Rojik of the Arctic]

Bode?

Joke from the Flanigan (sp?) article. But it is good to see us persisting with the kids. We need to keep the faith with the kids as they are the ones that will be BOG in 2011 when we are back where we belong. Even if they get ragdolled we need to keep them playing and reinforcing to them that we are not worried about the scoreboard rather that we just want to see some improvement and ability to follow the plan. I don't expect us to win too many games but I would like to see 18 odd games like last week where we gave Nth a good fright for most of the game, and I want opp coaches to know that their team needs to be focused on the game for 4 Q's or they will drop 4pts they thought that they should have had. The forward line worries me but I can't see any fixes at the moment so I think the best bet is to stick with things and play the same structure for at least a couple of weeks to see who can and who can't.

[Demon_Tingles 211]

The forward line worries me

This worries me also and I am surprised that we only took watts as a key forward in the draft. I think we overstocked on midfielders.

[Geddy Lee 582]

This worries me also and I am surprised that we only took watts as a key forward in the draft. I think we overstocked on midfielders.

Our second pick Blease is one of the quickest midfielders. I'd argue that we needed a quick midfielder more than a 2nd KPP forward because our midfielder is (with Essendon) the slowest in the AFL.

[rpfc 28,480]

Buckley started on Scarlett when we played the Cats in about round 19 last year--you may not have seen it or want to believe it--but it's true.

Blame Bailey?--well, not particularly. As the Flanagan piece makes plain there's a team of coaches.But I'm concerned that an approach used through the pre-season [and remember we beat Brisbane in Queensland in the 2nd last match with Newton kicking 3 out of 11] was changed for round 1.

I do agree that delivery to forwards was poor--but it often is at Melbourne. And that's why the long kicking option must be available if players can't pick out a forward--especially with the new rule meaning that the ball can't be punched through. Do you agree with me that this rule makes scrimmages in the goal square much more likely?

Precise disposal is the immediate future of the game, as illustrated by Hawthorn, Geelong, and the Bulldogs.

Indiscriminate kicks to the top of the square are extremely effective if you have someone to bring it to ground and rovers to clean up the resulting mess.

Let's look at the talls.

You can put it on Miller's head, but I believe he is better creating a target across HF and handing it off to running player (with a better kick).

It isn't Bate's strength. He is better on a lead.

It isn't Newton's either. He is a flanker in a FF's body. He is ahead of where he was last year but he still has his awful moments. As evidenced by his inconsistent, to put it mildly, match against the Bulldogs.

It is something we can implement with PJ, when he isn't rucking. Which shouldn't be long.

It would be suicide for Green to be treated this way if he were playing out of the square.

Now let's look at the smalls.

Davey is very good at this, but is increasingly being pushed up the ground. I prefer him giving the kick to the forwards as he is a beautiful kick.

Jetta is a kid who got the pill, which is the hardest part, but did little with it.

Wonna is fantastic at the base of a pack but is injured at the moment.

Petterd is a very smart player but could hardly be considered a FP capable of what Wonna does. The same goes for Sylvia, who doesn't have the same defensive qualities as Petterd.

We just don't have the cattle to attack the square, and in some cases it would be suicide. Backlines set up for the long kick to the square and we would be playing into their hands.

We need to perfect our run-and-carry, bring it through the guts, give it to someone who can kick properly and deliver it to a leading Bate, Green, Robertson, or Miller in an open forwardline.

That's how we should try to kick enough goals to win a game.