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The other interesting thing about Judd that highlights the folly of making black and white calls on 18 year old draftees is that even after a player starts playing AFL and everyone gets to see him, how a players is ranked in comparison to other players can change. I have made this point before so apologies for repetition but there are any number of examples where a player hailed as a gun early in his career has been matched or surpassed in terms of standing in the game by other players who were initially not though to be as good as the gun. After 2-3 years most footy people would have said the Hawks made a blunder not taking Judd and instead taking Hodge. Without debating their relative merits, with 2 premierships, a brownlow and 2 Norm Smiths fewer people would make that case now. Nickat v Watts is another example. After a year footy people were universal in their view that the dees made a big mistake. And now, some 5 years later? Well, still lots of people would argue we erred but i doubt that view is still universal and if Watts has a big year and Nik Nat has another poor one even fewer people would argue we made a clear error. The point is, it is folly making calls about untried kids and also fraught to make early calls on players in terms of how they rank and how wise their selection was, even after 1 -2 years of playing AFL footy. Some players take time to get to an elite level. Gibbs is an excellent example. He was brilliant last year and no doubt was happy to respond to those who suggested Carlton erred in taking him so high. Watson, Ablett and Hawkins are other examples. Conversely people were lavish in their praise of Rich and Hurley early on but i would argue both have flat lined and the case for them being guns (as they were widely touted in their first 2 years) is pretty hard to make. The obvious current example of this naive tendency is Wines v The Toump. History tells us that there is every chance the Toump will be a better player, even if shrill posters and some footy people could not countenance such a heretical idea. Time will tell.

I've got a contact at the club who is involved with the recruiting and drafting and I just thought I'd let you know that the issues you've been discussing here are exactly those that are being debated at the club at the moment. I've been told that Brayshaw is a lock for 2 but I think everyone knows that but pick 3 has narrowed down considerably over the last few weeks as a result of the interviews they have conducted. Initially McCartin was the front runner as they wanted to add depth to the KPF situation and they realize this is one of the few chances they will get to pick a big class forward. And they reckon he would work really well with Hogan although that will be a few years away. They are comfortable with Dawes doing that role for the next few year but have doubts about his ability to do it in the longer term. But at the last meeting they discussed his medical situation and now have their doubts. The two players now most under consideration are Lever and Jordan De Goey who have edged in front of McCartin. Lever is a real talent but there is still some concern over his knee and they really like that De Goey is a real goer and is a big bodied the midfielder Roos likes. The other one who hasn't been ruled out is Nakia Cockatoo because of all the players in the draft he has as much skill and X factor as anyone but his lack of exposed form is a real issue. Roos is torn because he can see the kids talent but hates taking risks. At this stage the value bet is De Goey although they still have some interviews to do with coaches and so forth but if you wanted to have a punt he'd be a good value bet. They still have a couple of meeting to go and Taylor and Viney will make their final presentations a couple of days before the draft. I can say that a line has been ruled through Wright and Laverde as both just don't tick enough boxes. Anyway I thought you'd be interested. If I hear anything else I'll pass it on. Reality is that a lot of the things said here are spot on the money other than the rather surprising status of De Goey.

How does that work? The club doesn't screw up this pick the second it says the name, that judgement waits for time to reveal it. Just as it has for so many of our previous picks. I don't know these juniors, my experience is of people telling me and my club - you choose this child, and maybe this other child - they are the best players and forever will be. And they have been wrong. If the club 'reaches' for a player they believe will be better than the ones they are 'supposed' to pick I would be pleasantly surprised. This Lever kid doesn't deserve the emphatic dismissal you have given him and if he is selected it will be because the club thinks he has recovered from his knee issues and that he will be the better player.

I liked this comment from a Tracey in the comments section under the Hird Hun story: Hirdy will be in a much better position once all the facts are suppressed

Here is the sense: the club might think he will be a better player. (Brain explosion)

I am not sure if he is our man, I do know that we have been tracking him for ages and have been speaking to him and his family several times recently so apparently we are still very interested. I am excited by a strong and wiry, hard working player with a mad attack on the footy who has a very good sidestep, great judgement and game awareness and the ability to mark the footy over others with arms that go up like giant testicles. A player like this who could perhaps make the transition into the midfield is hard to go past. I look forward to tracking his career wherever he ends up. The issue with the Prendergast years is that we took players in the first round who had glaring physical or mental deficiencies, players that were incomplete. From reports this bloke has the physical and psychological attributes necessary to do well.

Ignition I haven't seen any of these kids and so I sit hear reading the same old same old. The pros and cons seem reasonably clear on both Lever and McCartin (how I'd laugh if we picked someone different) and a fair concern is that Lever has no exposed form for 2014 coming off an ACL - but lets face it so many have recovered so well from ACL's in the past that I don't believe that's an issue. Now IF we choose Lever and because he hasn't played in 2014 and given our recruiting staff will have been all over all of the top prospects for some time now doesn't that give you a little confidence in the kid? Doesn't that make you at least question your own position? I'm in Nut's camp. It's highly unlikely that the top 3 picks will end up being the best 3 footballers in this draft. You back your judgment and see how you go.

https://www.facebook.com/melbournefcsupporterspage?fref=nf really good training report on this page.

Uuuuuummmm.... I think the word you were looking for is 'tentacles'......

1. Premiership / MELBOURNE 2. Brownlow medal / NATHAN JONES 3. Coleman medal / JESSE HOGAN 4. Keith bluey / NATHAN JONES 5. Rising star / JESSE HOGAN ...and I am totally unbiased.

The older crew will get it.

Nutbean - ignore the guy and move on. The definition of crazy is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome. You are not going to get self-reflection from picket fence, you are not going to get an exploration of his own logic. Best left alone IMO.

Not the dreaded wishy-washy Royal Blue of 1975--1986 under any circumstances .

I vote for the Port Adelaide white strip with one red and one blue V. Nice and simple and it looks like a footy jumper without any cartoon characters.

Being 'quick of mind' is more important that being quick across the park. Everyone here is throwing around some good examples here of that kind of player. I think Sam Mitchell is the best example. He is incredibly slow across the park but brilliant to watch. No idea how people measure this other than watching a hell of lot of the specific player. Unfortunately watching a couple highlights here and there of a player we won't have much clue. In saying that, my expert opinion from about 2 minutes of video footage is that I love the way Lever moves and takes the game on so I'd have him over McCartin. Also believe he has more strings to his bow than that of just a forward. His dedication to the rehab and coaching during the last season was inspiring stuff. The fact he is a very handy boxer also I hope means he is a fair bit of sh!t in him that I like. I'm backing him in for big things.

The only thing I know for sure in this whole episode, is that you are either right or wrong. Simple really.

Please.

Unless, of course, the club thinks he's going to be a bloody good AFL player and he's the best available at pick 3.

A school coach on a top 5 draft pick. It's like asking a mum whether she thinks her babies cute.

The most important reasons we should pick Lever, IMO: 1. I haven't said that I like him. 2. Picket Fence wants McCartin. 3. Someone somewhere thinks he might be able to play in the midfield some day. 4. Is most likely to be our first ever 18 year old captain. 5. His mum or dad cook a mean dinner. (Or Roosy's wife cooks a shocking one. ) 6. They call him Snake. The most important reasons we should not pick Snake, IMO: 1. Jack Watts can run 20 metres faster than him, on a basketball court wearing sneakers. 2. He did his knee 12 months ago and if he ever does either knee ever again under any circumstance, then it's another recruiting blunder. I think the pros have it. And they say it's not an exact science. Pffft.

Sure: Source: https://www.facebook.com/melbournefcsupporterspage?fref=nf

First and only warning from me Theo. Never ever have a go at my skill set and knowkedge base when you know absolutely nothing about me. My whole work is based on evidence. And the evidence shows that ACL's happen, and afl level most likely they only happen once in a career. There is no place for attacking ones professional credentials on a public forum. You may disagree with me and that's fine but let's not get all personal here. One question though and I will not be entertaining anymore on the matter. What would be your thoughts if we recruited Tex Walker who has recently recovered from the same injury?

I said that results from that particular test in isolation are ambiguous. So yes, in that sense it's pointless.Overall, I'd say that part of the reason the draft can be such a lottery is because of things like the combine testing. There's far too much emphasis put on these isolated tests. So much so that it is advantageous to those players who are perhaps more of an athlete than footballer and if they do well in the testing, their draft value will soar whilst those who don't have as many athletic gifts will drop away, (even if they're the better footballer). That's my view anyway. It's only a recent thing that they've now introduced football specific skills like kicking etc. As for the comparison of Lever's speed to that of some of the elite AFL midfielders, I think it's a very relevant rebuttal to what your main argument is. Regardless of position. They're the living proof that a 20 metre sprint test can be of little significance when determining one's overall footballing ability. I have my own views on a players ability to play certain positions anyway. The fact that Lever hasn't played through the midfield means little to me. Petracca is an example of someone who has moved seamlessly from the forwardline to the midfield in one year and will now most likely go pick number 1 after such a dominant year. To play as an inside mid you need to have particular playing traits. In my view Lever has those traits already programmed. It's the physiological aspects of his game that will need to change, which come if you are willing to work extremely hard. (Something that both Lever and Petracca do). Lever is bound by nothing except his desire to become fit and strong enough to play through the midfield. Everything else is already ticked off in my view. He has footy smarts He is competitive beast with aggression He is skilled He wins contested ball in the air and on the ground He tackles hard Midfield strategy, running patterns, positional play are also secondary and are learnt intensively at AFL level so that's a non-issue for me too. You only have to look at Fyfe for an example.

If only Heeney wasn't an academy drafted player.. Would settle this drafting debate and make things a whole lot easier.

Mundy is a good comparison for Lever. Key defender that may play midfield. Obviously Lever is stronger overhead but has done an ACL. I would give up pick 3 for an 18 year old Mundy in a heartbeat. Our mosquito fleet midfield could use some size.

Lack of pace a concern??His pace is not an issue. Even look at his highlights his agility is actually quite good. Nathan Fyfe, Scott Pendlebury, David Mundy. 3 tall midfielders who are actually quite slow by foot. Does that effect them? Lever in fact looks to be a lot quicker than those blokes.

I re-read your Newton post and you are correct "I hope we are NOT one of the clubs interested, However would love him to go somewhere else and play good footy, would put egg on a few faces around here!" That is just plain bizarre - you want him to succeed but just not at our club. You want him to succeed so you can stick it up other posters ? If we draft McCartin then good. If we draft Lever or Laverde then good. I just can't follow anyone's blind faith in an untried under 18's become great footballers when every indicator tells us that whoever we pick, there will be someone better we should have picked.

Only 1 more for Ben Cousins

Actually 18,if you only sleep once a day.

Maybe Mrs Lever cooks a mean meatloaf...

I've been groupthunk in to wanting Lever. Just putting this out there so when we don't draft him and he turns out to be a gun I can bleat about it repetitively, even though I actually have no idea about the juniors at all.

That's nothing. Mark "Jacko" Jackson used do that trick while doing handstands during a game. (OK I exaggerate a bit )

He's tall, broad and really really cut. He's not the mass of big buckets Holland is his prime, but he's a pretty decent specimen of an athlete. Looks well built for his size and age. Tom McDonald looks a little stronger than last year as well I think. Hoping we have two key posts in these guys. Not the most skilled but with the right athleticism and attitude.

you mean one of these?

I wasn't meaning to compare him to other mids jacey, just speaking about speed sometimes being a little bit overrated. In my mind Lever has more to offer being a natural footballer than a couple of the others around him. Mind you, I haven't see him play once so I am only basing this off the highlights and reports on him as a player. I just like the way he is agressive at the pill in the air and then takes the game on with some run and spread. His speed on the video's looks fine to me. I don't know if he will be a gun midfielder or not but I do believe he will be a very good player no matter where or for who he plays. The draft combine is a massive [censored] and in my opinion nearly a complete waste of time. I was lucky enough to do the testing this year as apart of my work (work at NAB) and as much as it was a thrill getting out there I feel we place way to much emphasis on the stats it provides. The couple days are more for a commercial purposes in my opinion, I don't think the data provided adds that much more value to who is selected where. Surely the coaches / recruiters would have there minds made up after the TAC cup season and the U/18 championships of who they would be after. If 'Player X' gets the pill 25 times a game but runs a 20m run 0.20secs slower than 'Player Y' who gets 12 touches I know who I'd go after. Also, on the 20m sprint, starting at the actual laser-line I ran a 3.18 I think and then the next I was a bit cheeky and started a foot back and got a 3.02 without being noticed. So the results can be skewed a little. Anyways, It's all about footy smarts and I think the snake has got it.

OD, curious as to why it pains you so? Do I care?. Yeah I do. I care that someone of any club, of any sporting code who has overseen the program he did, denied all responsibility, sunk his mates and shown no remorse could 'escape' personal accountability. Such a person deserves to be punished and banished from sport without his precious reputation in tack. That it is James Hird and the Bombers just makes it sweeter!

In news to hand (and this is actually from the court proceedings transcript available in Real Footy): At 10:30am: "Peter Hanks QC (aka Dennis Denuto and representing Hird) begins outlining his client's submission. He cites a case that involved a challenge by a land owner to an order made to the land commissioner." As I understand it, said land owner was none other than Darryl Kerrigan.

I wonder if anyone has told young James that while getting off on a legal technicality can be a wise move if you face jail time, it doesn't do much for you if the only thing at stake is your reputation and you say you are keen to prove your innocence.

Apparently Hird is being represented by a Dennis Denuto who will be using Mabo as a precedent; Denuto was heard to mumble something about "the vibe".

It might even take on the air of one of those noir films or books set in the deep South of the US as once proud Southern families who made their money from slavery incestuously stagnate in their decaying mansions, oblivious to the pathos and tragedy that envelops them. Or maybe Hird will become like Betty Davis in Whatever happended to Baby Jane.

It would be nice to see Casey win a premiership this year! There are four Casey players already training with Melbourne, they have secured a fulltime coach tfor next year and hopefully we will have a better run of injuries, giving them access to more players!

It amazes me that posters get so worked up about posters trying to be experts, (who completely know they're not) analysing which players have the best attributes from watching a highlights tape. It's a football forum. What do you expecccccttttttt...

I'll tell you what doesn't make sense.The fact you're so sure there are question marks next to Lever's name yet McCartin will be a '15 year 'gun' full forward. Demonland @ it's absolute best.

Agree. I was about to post a similar thing.How fast exactly is our young budding superstar, Dom Tyson? Lever's reading of the ball in flight is comparable to Fyfe, in my opinion. Those who say he's too tall to play as a mid... He's shorter than Bontempelli by a couple of cm.

THEN WHY NOT TAKE MCKENZIE AT 40 AND MCCARTIN AT 3?

oh goody....it's "away jumper" time !! just remember folks it has to be predominantly white unless youre a "power" club !!

I think this needs to be challenged on a couple of counts. He is at TAC level an exceptional footballer. In terms of talent I would not be surprised if he is rated by some recruiters as highly as Petracca. The modern game does not require outstanding pace to play in the midfield. In fact many of the top midfielders in the game wouldn't necessarily be defined as quick. You do need a great work rate, a strong body, good game sense and the ability to work in traffic amongst other things. Don't forget those qualities that took this bloke to an elite level in boxing. As mentioned earlier he also has an arm span of 204cm.

Watts ran a really quick one, so that stat is dead to me.

no sunblock,no hat. very disappointing .

In decision making hopefully. That's about the only real knock I've got on the bloke.