All reasonable and fair points @Its Time Again

3 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I see his 2nd year trajectory similar to how Finn Callaghan was for instance.

Another solid year of just building and developing.with the big spike coming around the 3rd or 4th year.

Perhaps. But he might be our second best mid in 2026 and Kozzie will be hard to ‘run with’ and disrupt in a football sense. Whereas Langford is a kid that would be susceptible to oppo homework.

More and more I am thinking similarly to you for 2026.

Late start for key senior players, best players are young, seeming role players being exposed to more responsibility, question marks on number of players…

My red and blue heart is always going to be biased and have us performing better than anyone thought. My head, when looking at this season is a little bit confused. It may be age causing that.

It may be more of a case that there are just so many unknowns stacked into our mix this season. It makes it hard, in my opinion to make any assessment.

New coach with a new structure to his coaching team, a different game structure and a big turnover in the playing list all contribute to a sense of uncertainty for me.

With regard to the coaching I like what I am hearing about the training sessions and the attitude of the players. they seem to be responding to the new coaching team. I am sure the players are looking at the situation as a 'clean sheet' re-start. I have also heard reports from a couple of people that King is very clear in his discussions with players at training as well as in private. I believe he is the same way with his coaching team.

The playing list is what it is. We lost a couple of club champions and gained a couple of senior players. wins and losses, only time will tell which are which. I tend to think we made the right decisions to move on our ex/declining champions and look to make spaces in the team for younger developing players. In the defence I think we have a good mix of senior quality players and young developing players. If that is the case and we can organise that area of the ground to support our new game plan then I think it will hold up pretty well.

The attacking area of the ground will be better than it has been since '21. it would have to show some improvement as it has been so bad for so long. The new game plan will improve the forward performance as long as the midfield delivers with intent and intelligence and the forwards are on the move rather than standing and wrestling. JVR, Fristch and Mihocek will be locks if fit but it will be interesting to see how the rest of the forward 0 is structured. There will be a number of players rotating between a stint in the forwards and other positions in the midfield or on a wing.

Games are won and lost in the midfield...... so goes a tried and true cliche. I agree and it is the zone of the ground that we really know least about. We have a number of players that can perform on the wings. The real deal is what happens in the middle at the fall of the ball. Steele will be a big asset in there as will Pickett the Elder. the rest will get in there but so much of the performance in there relies on understanding how and where your teammates are going to be. it takes time to build those relationships and understanding. I expect us to run a bit hot and cold in the middle during this season and even within games.

So the heart says we will surprise and end up 8-10 while the head says we will improve on 14th last season and be around 10-12th.

P.S. in my heart of hearts we win the flag this year.

On 29/01/2026 at 15:38, dazzledavey36 said:

Mihocek has been sidelined for majority of the pre season and even whilst he was joining in match simulation yesterday, he was still managed.

We're weeks away from games. He will be still well behind the eight ball with match fitness and relying to fit into a new game structure.

Langford performing better then Petraccas 2025 form??

Sheesh.. I know some still have the [censored] over Petracca but let's still acknowledged that he actually still performed exceptionally well even though his output wasn't to the same standard as it previously been.

A reminder of Petracca of 2025:

582 disposals, 18 goals, 16 Brownlow votes, runner up in the BnF, number one for goals assist for Melbourne. He is a huge loss.

I like Harvey, I think he will be a fantastic player, but I think we're placing far too much expectations here on his shoulders. I think he will continue to alternate between wing and inside mid which for a second year player i expect some dip in form at times.

Can see a career spike in form at around the 60-80 game mark where he'll be the general of our midfield.

I guess I don’t believe established senior players with many preseasons behind them struggle with this as much as younger players. You just have to look at the Pies current injury list & they do have many senior players with Maynard just added who have missed or are missing big chucks of preseason but are still being touted as doing well. It won’t be long until we see how it all plays out ..

On 29/01/2026 at 08:33, dazzledavey36 said:

I have tipped us to finish bottom 3.

In fact i see us significantly dropping similar to how West Coast did whdn they had those aging stars still flopping around. Though i dont think we will be at the point of being barely VFL standard snd completely uncompetitive like they were.

We have had too many of our main senior players sitting in the sidelines all pre season which if anyone on here have played footy previously at a fairly strong standard, will know that not having a good base under your belt will completely hinder your preparation all year. You cannot simply make up for lost time. Sports science will say the same thing.

Development year with some pain along the way this year. All about getting as much games into the kids as we can.

I'd happily put a slab on us not !!

We'll play like a TEAMthis year. Huge difference.. more likely to be a chance to knock on the door than bottom 3.

A question for track watchers

I realise this is only preseason, dancing with your sister, but is there any impression especially compared with last season or two, that they know a bit more about where their team mates will be, and are they moving in anticipation and perhaps shepherding more than before.

The static nature of those ahead of the ball particularly deep forward, and the lack of second efforts and shepherding after disposal, and lack of “dummy leading” drawing defenders wide from the forward line has done my head in 2023-25. A bit more of that and we would have won a lot more games, especially finals

Your thoughts? I realise nothing means much before the true action.

Thanks

On 29/01/2026 at 02:12, godees said:

People were saying the same thing about Hawthorn a couple of years ago. They are an exception, as most young teams struggle after losing a lot of high end experience, but do show that a group of talented young players can improve very quickly.

I have no idea where this perception comes from. "Very quickly"? In the five long years from 2019 - 2023 Hawthorn were in the wilderness. If they're the yardstick then we can expect to see the start of a turnaround in ... 2029.

Do I care if we play finals this year? Not really, although it would be nice.

We are back in developing mode, with a new coach with what I’m sure will be a more appropriate game plan that has us trending in the direction where footy is heading. Sure we might take a step or 2 back here and there, but it’s better than what would’ve happened if we hadn’t have change the coach end of last year.

Admire the optimism of some here, but every supporter of every club would be saying the same kinds of things - some with good reason.

Would love to be proved wrong, but the real world tends to behave in more or less predictable ways and it's hard to see us doing much better than we have over the last couple of seasons.

38 minutes ago, bing181 said:

I have no idea where this perception comes from. "Very quickly"? In the five long years from 2019 - 2023 Hawthorn were in the wilderness. If they're the yardstick then we can expect to see the start of a turnaround in ... 2029.

24 minutes ago, bing181 said:

Admire the optimism of some here, but every supporter of every club would be saying the same kinds of things - some with good reason.

Would love to be proved wrong, but the real world tends to behave in more or less predictable ways and it's hard to see us doing much better than we have over the last couple of seasons.

Your second post explains the first.

Hawthorn may have spent 5 years down the bottom before 2024, but they didn't experience any sort of gradual improvement. They went from tripe in 2023 (and for the first 5 weeks of 2024) into a top 4 and prelim final contender.

If you had applied your "the real world tends to behave in more or less predictable ways" to Hawthorn at this time in 2024, you would have said "it's hard to see them doing much better than they have over the last couple of seasons".

And, again, as you'll no doubt make it sound like I need to say this - I am not saying that this is the likely outcome for us in 2026. I'm merely saying it's possible.

1 hour ago, monoccular said:

A question for track watchers

I realise this is only preseason, dancing with your sister, but is there any impression especially compared with last season or two, that they know a bit more about where their team mates will be, and are they moving in anticipation and perhaps shepherding more than before.

The static nature of those ahead of the ball particularly deep forward, and the lack of second efforts and shepherding after disposal, and lack of “dummy leading” drawing defenders wide from the forward line has done my head in 2023-25. A bit more of that and we would have won a lot more games, especially finals

Your thoughts? I realise nothing means much before the true action.

Thanks

In the stuff we are allowed to see, what we see at Gosch's, there are activities that are aimed at the forwards creating space and leading, giving the player with the ball a target. There's also a lot of emphasis on keeping possession of the ball until there are good targets closer to or in the forward line. Lots of finding or making space all across the ground and pinpoint kicking (Steele, yes!). I've also noticed that at the same time as we are streaming forward, one or two players are dropping back well behind the play. This doesn't always happen but if one side loses possession, it allows the other side to move the ball back to their forward line and have someone to receive it.

Roo is showing a lot of improvement on the running to space or finding space. Fritta is good at that too. AJ is doing pretty well at that too I think. (The forward has two backmen on him and one inside 50 side of the oval to work in. ) They are being coached on this and I'm hoping it will be a thing of beauty this year and years to come.

So maybe we'll be better? Fewer long, unconsidered bombs into the forward line.

While I think of it, someone was asking about Heath. A lot of the exercises, even match sim, don't use rucks. The ball is thrown up and whoever grabs it gets it. Or sometimes the centre square crew handpass the pill to each other and at some point the whistle blows and someone wins pass the parcel and off they go. It's hard to say how well a ruckman is going if you don't see him rucking. Yes he has to take marks, which Heath does rather like Big Ben Brown did, arms reaching over everyone, and work below his knees (haven't noticed this but the match sims can be very fast moving and I've not been looking to see how Heath is doing).

Okay, this has taken half an hour to type on the phone, hope there's not too many autocarrots. Cheers!

4 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

If you had applied your "the real world tends to behave in more or less predictable ways" to Hawthorn at this time in 2024, you would have said "it's hard to see them doing much better than they have over the last couple of seasons".

Valid point of course. But in 2023 the issue for Hawthorn wasn't so much what they were capable of, but consistency. Alongside some bad losses, they beat both grand finalists (Lions and Pies), as well as a couple of teams in/around the top 8. They also managed to find a bit more consistency across the last 8 games where they were in most games and had some decent wins.

That's not a pattern we've seen with us over the last couple of years, which is one of the reasons for the change of coach and personnel I imagine. Not so much that we were mediocre, but there were no real signs that things were turning.

For me, if we can match Hawthorn's 2023 it would be a decent season and auger well for 2027.

I'm just looking forward to watching something different.
New coach, fresh looking team with a few good young fellas.
Be good, see what they've got.
Whatever happens, I reckon we're on the right track.
Go the Demons.

11 hours ago, monoccular said:

A question for track watchers

I realise this is only preseason, dancing with your sister, but is there any impression especially compared with last season or two, that they know a bit more about where their team mates will be, and are they moving in anticipation and perhaps shepherding more than before.

The static nature of those ahead of the ball particularly deep forward, and the lack of second efforts and shepherding after disposal, and lack of “dummy leading” drawing defenders wide from the forward line has done my head in 2023-25. A bit more of that and we would have won a lot more games, especially finals

Your thoughts? I realise nothing means much before the true action.

Thanks

Short answer YES

On 29/01/2026 at 15:38, dazzledavey36 said:

Mihocek has been sidelined for majority of the pre season and even whilst he was joining in match simulation yesterday, he was still managed.

The word from C/Wood was that he had been managed over his last few years (not sure of the truth of this).

His on field output has still been solid.

15 hours ago, beelzebub said:

I'd happily put a slab on us not !!

We'll play like a TEAMthis year. Huge difference.. more likely to be a chance to knock on the door than bottom 3.

This. We've spent at least 2 years playing as individuals.

1 hour ago, beelzebub said:

Short answer YES

Long answer Yes!

MAYNARD injured at Filthland what rotten luck for him eh?? Anyone want to take around some Flowers??

Edited 22 hours ago22 hr by picket fence

On 29/01/2026 at 20:15, Dannyz said:

Kolt will be a star!

The high half forward/ pressure role is the hardest to execute, especially for young boys coming in.

Add to that our horrible style of the last year or so.

No doubt for me a bit more freedom in his role and our ball movement will do him the world of good.

Many of us wrote of ANB around the 2-3 year mark.

Don't disagree with this, but he is nowhere near fit enough to execute a role at AFL level. Jury out until we see some athletic traits.

6 minutes ago, Red and Blue Flame said:

Don't disagree with this, but he is nowhere near fit enough to execute a role at AFL level. Jury out until we see some athletic traits.

You don't get to training much, do you!

Our midfield is in refresh for 2026.

I agree with the outlook for Langford. He’s a genuine star for the future and I’ve been singing his talent since his under 18 performances. Absolutely was over the moon when we drafted him and with his 2025 debut season. But don’t load up pressure too much for a second season player

I do have to agree with @dazzledavey36 about the loss of Petracca. Even though he didn’t perform like 2021-2023, he still had a very very good 2025 in my view. Runner up in the MFC B&F, 16 Brownlow votes, 582 disposals, 18 goals, MFC number one for goals assists. He is a huge loss. We got three 1st round draft picks in exchange and he wanted out. So we move on. But he must acknowledge his loss.

Hopefully the loss of Trac and Clarry (both will be remembered as greats for the MFC), there’s now opportunities for Langford, Riv, Kozzy to now own the new midfield. More opportunity perhaps for Kolt and Sparrow to show us that they have the ability to play midfield minutes too. JV7 still has some grunt to give. Jack Steele is also a great addition with his own talent and guiding influences to others.

Let’s go Dees in 2026

On 29/01/2026 at 19:48, John Demonic said:

Not to mention the amount of sausage sizzle sales at family days going forward.

That would make The Kolt equivalent to less of a role player and more of a Pick 1-5 calibre player.

Or possibly, more of a roll player!

1 hour ago, picket fence said:

MAYNARD injured at Filthland what rotten luck for him eh?? Anyone want to take around some Flowers??

Yeah, a bindii suppository

On 29/01/2026 at 20:22, Its Time Again said:

Hmmm!!!! Are you talking about the Petracca who had 98 kicks i50 excluding shots on goal of which "9" were marked which was ranked 374th in the entire league. 37 were retained which ranked him 331st in the entire league. It also far more relevantly ranked him 18th within the MFC for percentage of i50 kicks retained. And he had 30 i50 kicks than anyone else in the team. Stop and have a think about that. 18th. Keep in mind at least 6 are backmen and almost never kicking i50. How about his goal scoring. 18 goals 24 behinds and approx 15 out on the fall. So 18 goals 39 misses.

Don't get me wrong. I loved Trac and think he is the most dynamic player I have ever seen play for MFC and I choke on my weeties to say this but including Robbie who I saw play his first and last games and most inbetween. Robbie was pure poetry in motion but he wasn't an explosive contested beast with so many tricks and Trac will always have one of the greatest GF performances of all time. However Trac won't go down as one of the most elite players of all time because of his lack of effectiveness. Think Robert Harvey. I'm guessing he will end up with another Premiership and if he starts hitting targets i50 and kicking goals accurately I'll agree with you. But he hasn't done that for us for 5 years. Not to mention the off field issues.

Someone else is going to take his place in the team and I am very confident at the end of the year they will have delivered more i50 kicks marked and retained than the star they are replacing. Same goes for Steele replacing Clarry. Have a look at Langford's retention stats i50 they are incredible. His percentage retention was 42.9% compared to Trac's 37.8%. Wheelo supplied an interesting stat on average equity gained from kick i50 which is more nuanced because it includes things like

. how the kicker won possession (i.e. proxy for pressure);

• the location where the kick was taken;

• the location where the kick ended up; and

• who took next possession and how.

Langford ranked first in the team, Petracca ranked 17th.

I'm sure Langford will play more in the guts but there are plenty of candidates for that kick i50 who I am sure will do better than Petracca.

I couldn't watch a lot of games last season mainly because of how Petracca and Oliver were delivering the ball i50. Our key issue. We're not going to be worse for their departures we're going to be better. Virtually no one in the fourth estate has worked this out.

Thank you to Wheelo for all these great stats. If you want to see them in more detail go over to the Stats Files. He compiled a list of them on Petracca and Oliver and how they compare to other MFC players and other players in the league. It would have been sobering reading if they were still here.

Onwards and Upwards

Go Dees

Now, I’m not usually one to blow smoke up a person’s hind quarters, but that is one of the best reads I can recall ever having on this site!!

Stats can be a very boring subject, but you had me invested to the point where I found myself reading it in an Antony Green voice. Thank you!

Im not trying to be in the slightest revisionist or sensationally argumentative for the sake of it. I detest statistics as invariably flawed in concept and deprived of reasoned context.

Classically only the scoreboard matters and in reality thats the one that dictates my perceptions.

I, and a number of other punters here watch and look. We track (npi...well... ) what players do and note all the little things ( as many as can )

Where this goes is .... what effectiveness does any player have ?? I'll stand by my impression that neither of Trac or Ollie are nearly as much of a loss as some suspect. Maybe if this were the start of 22 and not 26 that view might be different, but it's not and that's the crux of it. They are both very handy players on their day and I have no doubt will be good pick-ups for their new clubs.... but are we left with gaping holes?? Far from it. Im actually going to go as far to say had we retained them it may have proved an impediment to developing the team. Neither were what anyone would call ball delivers of excellence. They fit an older mould. Ollie is really the enigma of the discussion. His ability to read the ball and play was amazing...but in recent times the follow up of putting it to our advantage had all but deserted him.

Trac... at the risk of arrows I will say his efforts post injury were not the same as before. I get that. But his effectiveness is his role as he'd become accustomed had slid... markedly in my book... a just 'is'. Happy for others to different.

With the 2 players as was we played a particular way.. with almost (lamentably ) predictable outcomes.. This prevented other players progressing and developing craft .

Now this would be fine if we were thumping teams and playing finals. But we weren't. We were God awful plain.

Sometimes to improve you need to prune hard. This is what we've done and Im very optimistic of the results ( eventual ) going forward.

In short we wont miss them as we'll play a better style of football with others bringing their abilities to the table.