GAMEDAY: Rd 09 vs Carlton

[Demonland 71,081]

It's Game Day and the Demons are once again headlining another blockbuster at the MCG to kick off the round of footy. The Dees take on the Blues and have the opportunity to win their third game on the trot to solidify a spot in the Top 4 in addition to handing the Blues their third consecutive defeat to bundle them out of the Top 8.

[Satan 2,859]

We owe them for last year

[dazzledavey36 54,043]

I was calm and confident we would beat Geelong last week.

This week I'm not so confident and that's purely off the back of a 5 day break and nothing else. 

Carlton have also brought in some solid ins and should not be underestimated. They've brought in Hollands after a week off who'll be fresh so this could really go down to the wire.

It's good to have Bowey back. We've underestimated how important he is to our back half and how much of a loss he's been this year so far.

[Gawndy the Great 9,010]

21 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I was calm and confident we would beat Geelong last week.

This week I'm not so confident and that's purely off the back of a 5 day break and nothing else. 

Carlton have also brought in some solid ins and should not be underestimated. They've brought in Hollands after a week off who'll be fresh so this could really go down to the wire.

It's good to have Bowey back. We've underestimated how important he is to our back half and how much of a loss he's been this year so far.

Blues will have had 3 games in 13. Same as us when we played the Lions. 
I’m not totally convinced by the significance of fatigue factor in the lead up to the Lions.

If there is any merit in it then the game plan should be to run them off their feet.

 

 

[Rossmillan 589]

Time for some payback for last years final

[John Demonic 5,692]

2 hours ago, Satan said:

We owe them for last year

 

46 minutes ago, Rossmillan said:

Time for some payback for last years final

After last years final, we have a gift for them:

Edited May 8 by John Demonic

[Skuit 10,027]

By my calculations, the Blues haven't had a clean win over us since 2016. 

[SPC 3,531]

Walsh and DeKoning killed us last time. 

[Wells 11 5,356]

11 minutes ago, SPC said:

Walsh and DeKoning killed us last time. 

bad kicking for goal killed us more than any blues player last time. 

[BigFez 1,440]

I still haven't recovered from our last match against them.

[leave it to deever 17,506]

Ok game day check list.

Mates invited....check.

Dons franks... check.

Bread rolls... check.

Drinks menu....vb vb and vb check.

All ready.

Go Dees.

[binman 42,427]

5 hours ago, Rossmillan said:

Time for some payback for last years final

I don't really feel like we need payback. Pies, yes. Blues, not so much.

Which is not to say I don't love the chance to beat the blues, but they didn't steal that final, unfortunately we lost it. 

I was really confident we'd beat the cats. And i think we win tonight. But I'm not nearly so bullish 

Head to head I think we are a better team.

And I think we have targeted the cats and blues games in the same way we did the port and crows double.

We can at least nullify their one wood - their midfield and contest - whereas they can't do much to disrupt ours - our defence, which blunts their other key strength - two gun key forwards.

And they are doing a good job themselves of blunting that strength by not, for whatever reason, playing a turnover transition game that means McKay and curnow get fewer one on one opportunities than they did in the second half of last season.

All things being equal we win most games we play against them.

But all things are not equal. I don't bet on dees games, but if I was a neutral I'd leave this game well alone as there are way too many variables:

- impact of the 5 day break (even if we have planned our program to be fresh and ready as possible, there's no guarantee it will work - we were running out of steam in the quarter against the crows)

- yes the blues only have 6 day break, but that one day can make a big difference 

- what is the impact of the blues compressed scheduling of their last 3 game?

- the blues likely have set themselves for the pies dees double

- I hate to say it, but I rate the pies and increasingly think they are a contender (though will struggle big time to make top 4)

- yes, the blues lost that game, but really should have won, and if I rate the pies then it's folly to under rate the blues (though their defence is suspect)

- the impact of our respective last games:

The blues lost a physically taxing, contest heavy, dramatic finals like game against a bitter rival in front of a heaving crowd

We won a finals like intensity game against an unbeaten, likely top 4 side. The big difference was our game was a low stoppage, low contest, high uncontested mark game that was not as physically taxing but more aerobically taxing because of all the running we did

- how ready are the blues 4 ins: will they help bring fresh legs or will they blow up first game back?

- what is the impact of making four changes, something coaches usually hate to do?

-  we have only made the one change: is that a risk in terms of not bringing in some fresh legs (it's not Griffith's style to do so, and it's probably a sign he is confident all are good to go, but high performance is part science part art)

- leaving aside issues related to readiness or fatigue, do the blues ins improve them more than our one in (I think not, Bowser in is awesome. Straight to hb to improve our transtion, with woey a super sub)?

- how will goody approach this game tactically:

Try and beat the blues at their territory, time in forward half, contest game (unlikey)?

Run them ragged with uncontested marks like we did against the cats (unlikely, mainly because I doubt we have the legs)?

Be more attacking from the back half, use the corridor more and take on high risk kicks to exploit the blues' defensive weakness?

(even though a turnover game might help Curnow and McKay get some good looks, I think this is the most likely scenario. Attack. Hopefully get a 3 goal plus lead by 3 quarter time and control the tempo in the last so they can't exploit any lack of run from us and get back in it)

- how will Voss approach this game tactically?

- it is likely to be dewy again, what impact will that have (it may favor the blues given their ability to win contests and ground balls)?

- what will the impact of a big blues home crowd be?

- what, if any, impact will the umpires have on the game?

- as we saw in our last home and away game against the blues, luck is always a factor: which team will lady luck smile on?

Edited May 8 by binman

[BDA 22,655]

This one is too hard to call. 

Fatigue will be the deciding factor i reckon. Our 5-day break v Carlton 3 games in 13 days.

Want to see Petty carry on from last week and delighted to have Bowey back

Would love to win one. We owe this mob.

Go Dees

[whatwhat say what 22,531]

15 minutes ago, binman said:

And I think we have targeted the cats and blues games in the same way we did the port and crows double.

This

 TCB time 

[leave it to deever 17,506]

28 minutes ago, binman said:

two gun key forwards

..... that's three for me.

[Fritta and Turner 4,286]

Hopeless case here, not confident at all, but I am wearing my Melbourne socks.  Had to tell you that.  Probs hide under a rock tonight.

[640MD 3,337]

7 hours ago, Satan said:

We owe them for last year

Definitely. Happened right in front of me and those feral baggers went nuts. But had been quiet all night up till then.

[640MD 3,337]

7 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I was calm and confident we would beat Geelong last week.

This week I'm not so confident and that's purely off the back of a 5 day break and nothing else. 

 

I was the opposite last week, not confident at all. This week I think we have planned for the 5 day break like we did in Adelaide.

agree it’s good to have Bowey back in the side

[chookrat 4,247]

7 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I was calm and confident we would beat Geelong last week.

This week I'm not so confident and that's purely off the back of a 5 day break and nothing else. 

Carlton have also brought in some solid ins and should not be underestimated. They've brought in Hollands after a week off who'll be fresh so this could really go down to the wire.

It's good to have Bowey back. We've underestimated how important he is to our back half and how much of a loss he's been this year so far.

I'm not too concerned re 5 day break as the key impact is limited opportunity for a session to simulate parts of our game we need to work on. Essentially a 5 day break means a focus on recovery and then priming up for the next match with limited ability for a main session.

I'd expect Carlton's 3 games in 13 days to have a greater impact due to limited ability to simulate areas of their game that they need to improve over that time. Their 4 changes also don't help from a stability and consistence perspective.

This said I'm expecting a tough match and well will need to be at our best to win.

[Jaded No More 68,832]

I too am not confident. I was much more confident last week, or it could have just been blind hate leading to delusion. 
 

Carlton’s midfield worries me far more than Geelong’s entire team does. If they get enough clean ball inside 50 from stoppage, then unfortunately even our best-in-league backline won’t be able to stop them scoring. 
 

5 day break on top of them getting some quality players back, and I’m more nervous than a fart in a perfume shop. 

[BLWNBA 922]

I was cautiously optimistic last weekend against the Catters. I can confidently say that I am far more nervous this week. Being in my early 30s, Carlton have traditionally troubled us. Vivid memories exist of us needing to beat Carlton several times in the 2000s in order to secure our place in the top 8 or top 4 only to falter, from memory once this happened twice in the one season - and let's not forgot Mitch Robinson and the infamous "bruise free football". 

But, that's all one for the history books. As is last years semi-final result. 

The head says Melbourne get it done tonight despite our shorter turnaround, but the heart isn't so sure. 

On a final note, despite growing up with a strong affiliation to Carlton due to family dynamics, my dislike of the club has grown over the years. I'm not so sure this is personally directed towards the team per se, especially in it's current form, but for the life of me I can't stand their supporter base. The pinnacle of bandwagon supporters; at least the Tigers and Pies always have strong support. But Carlton? They go very bloody quiet after a loss. 

[640MD 3,337]

46 minutes ago, binman said:

I don't really feel like we need payback. Pies, yes. Blues, not so much.

Which is not to say I don't love the chance to beat the blues, but they didn't steal that final, unfortunately we lost it. 

I was really confident we'd beat the cats. And i think we win tonight. But I'm not nearly so bullish 

Head to head I think we are a better team.

And I think we have targeted the cats and blues games in the same way we did the port and crows double.

We can at least nullify their one wood - their midfield and contest - whereas they can't do much to disrupt ours - our defence, which blunts their other key strength - two gun key forwards.

And they are doing a good job themselves of blunting that strength by not, for whatever reason, playing a turnover transition game that means McKay and curnow get fewer one on one opportunities than they did in the second half of last season.

All things being equal we win most games we play against them.

But all things are not equal. I don't bet on dees games, but if I was a neutral I'd leave this game well alone as there are way too many variables:

- impact of the 5 day break (even if we have planned our program to be fresh and ready as possible, there's no guarantee it will work - we were running out of steam in the quarter against the crows)

- yes the blues only have 6 day break, but that one day can make a big difference 

- what is the impact of the blues compressed scheduling of their last 3 game?

- the blues likely have set themselves for the pies dees double

- I hate to say it, but I rate the pies and increasingly think they are a contender (though will struggle big time to make top 4)

- yes, the blues lost that game, but really should have won, and if I rate the pies then it's folly to under rate the blues (though their defence is suspect)

- the impact of our respective last games:

The blues lost a physically taxing, contest heavy, dramatic finals like game against a bitter rival in front of a heaving crowd

We won a finals like intensity game against an unbeaten, likely top 4 side. The big difference was our game was a low stoppage, low contest, high uncontested mark game that was not as physically taxing but more aerobically taxing because of all the running we did

- how ready are the blues 4 ins: will they help bring fresh legs or will they blow up first game back?

- what is the impact of making four changes, something coaches usually hate to do?

-  we have only made the one change: is that a risk in terms of not bringing in some fresh legs (it's not Griffith's style to do so, and it's probably a sign he is confident all are good to go, but high performance is part science part art)

- leaving aside issues related to readiness or fatigue, do the blues ins improve them more than our one in (I think not, Bowser in is awesome. Straight to hb to improve our transtion, with woey a super sub)?

- how will goody approach this game tactically:

Try and beat the blues at their territory, time in forward half, contest game (unlikey)?

Run them ragged with uncontested marks like we did against the cats (unlikely, mainly because I doubt we have the legs)?

Be more attacking from the back half, use the corridor more and take on high risk kicks to exploit the blues' defensive weakness?

(even though a turnover game might help Curnow and McKay get some good looks, I think this is the most likely scenario. Attack. Hopefully get a 3 goal plus lead by 3 quarter time and control the tempo in the last so they can't exploit any lack of run from us and get back in it)

- how will Voss approach this game tactically?

- it is likely to be dewy again, what impact will that have (it may favor the blues given their ability to win contests and ground balls)?

- what will the impact of a big blues home crowd be?

- what, if any, impact will the umpires have on the game?

- as we saw in our last home and away game against the blues, luck is always a factor: which team will lady luck smile on?

Great comments, can I use them on my mates?

We are better than last year when we gifted the game.
Bowey in makes us better.

Petty usually keeps his form once he is up to speed.

and we have Leb on a wing.

and Disco is providing an alternative to our Mr Smith.

and I do not think the Captain’s run took much fitness away from us.  Just a loosen upperer.

more angst on the keyboards than on the field 

Go Dee’s 

 

[loges 6,767]

2 hours ago, Wells 11 said:

bad kicking for goal killed us more than any blues player last time. 

Plus dodgey goal reviews the last two times we played them.

[binman 42,427]

25 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

..... that's three for me.

Us or them?

[binman 42,427]

12 minutes ago, BLWNBA said:

The head says Melbourne get it done tonight despite our shorter turnaround, but the heart isn't so sure. 

Funnily enough I'm the exact opposite.