Jump to content

PREGAME: Rd 03 vs Port Adelaide

Demonland
Demonland
in Melbourne Demons

Featured Replies

5 hours ago, binman said:

I punt with a mate. Horses and footy (but haven't had a bet on the footy thus far, too variable, though i regret not making some money from the pies losses).

We have a very good record for footy bets, with one exception.

My record on suggested bets on the dees is woeful (though we had such a good run on us in 2021, including the flag, norm smith and multiple wins in the 24-30 point range that we're still probably somewhere near break even on our dees bets).

So, we've made the difficult decision to not back the dees anymore (difficult for me, not him - let's say my mate is little less naturally optimistic, read more realistic, about our chances. To be fair to him, we have been mates for 34 years and I'm probably 8-26 in terms of my preseason optimism being warranted).

I note all that by way of putting a warning on the following advice:

You can currently get 2.76 for a dees win against Port (who are 1.46 favorites), with the line at +14.5

They are simply crazy odds. Particularly if Lever ends up playing.

Defensively, they will struggle to cover our ball movement from the back half on what will be a perfect night for footy (dry, warm, but cloudy so little dew but no humidity).

And our defence is perfectly suited to nullify their two key forwards, both in terms of our zone off, help out system and personnel.

The big slow lug, Dixon is perfectly suited as match up for Tomo. Dixon won't exploit Tomos lack of pace of the mark and Tomo is strong enough to compete. Hore and Lever can cover Marshall. 

Offensively, they will certainly trouble us with what i assume will be their normal super fast ball movement from the back half. And they will certainly get some good looks, particularly with the brilliant Rozee and Butters, and the reliable Houston, driving their transition. 

But our defensive system the best in the AFL and we are the team best placed to stand up defensively against fast ball movement (as we have shown against the Pies last year, and even against the Swans in round one).

They deserve to be favorites on their home deck, but 1.46 is way unders. As is the 14 point line. I mean what is our average losing margin in the last three  seasons?

Suggested bet: your super on the dees to make their +14.5 line, and whatever you handy have in your bank account on the dees to win @ 2.76

During our darker years a mate of mine...a Dee's fanatic would often bet against us to take the sting out of our losses. He called it insurance money. Sadly he did quite well.

    • Like 3
     
    • Author
    Name Injury Expected Return
    Ollie Sestan Concussion Test
    Jake Lever Knee Test
    Steven May Ribs 1 week 
    Lachie Hunter Calf 1 week
    Daniel Turner  Hip 2 - 3 weeks 
    Charlie Spargo Achilles 2 - 4 weeks
    Shane McAdam Hamstring 3 - 5 weeks  
    Jake Bowey Shoulder 7 weeks
    Jake Melksham  Knee 12 - 14 weeks  
     
    39 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

    During our darker years a mate of mine...a Dee's fanatic would often bet against us to take the sting out of our losses. He called it insurance money. Sadly he did quite well.

    Yes, well that's been the other part of punting on dees problem - not being able to bring myself to back against the dees, even when i know the oppo is good value.

    • Like 1
    7 hours ago, binman said:

    I mean what is our average losing margin in the last three  seasons?

    Not sure if you really wanted an answer bin, but  I thought I’d run some numbers. 

    Seasons 2021-2023. 21 losses for an average losing margin of 13.4 pts

    Average losing margins.

    2021 - 11.75 pts 

    2022 - 19.5 pts 

    2023- 8.8 pts

    • Like 7
    • Thanks 3
    • Love 1

    3 hours ago, binman said:

    Yes, well that's been the other part of punting on dees problem - not being able to bring myself to back against the dees, even when i know the oppo is good value.

    I have never ever backed the Demons.

    I have often bet again the Dees. Needless to say I'm well ahead. 

    I'd rather lose my money though.

     

    • Like 2
    1 hour ago, Dee Zephyr said:

    Not sure if you really wanted an answer bin, but  I thought I’d run some numbers. 

    Seasons 2021-2023. 21 losses for an average losing margin of 13.4 pts

    Average losing margins.

    2021 - 11.75 pts 

    2022 - 19.5 pts 

    2023- 8.8 pts

    Not winning the flag last year will haunt me for a long time. It was ours for the taking, but injuries, bad kicking and one POS who shall remain nameless, ruined it. 

    Supporters will say we are no good because of our straight set exists, and that is definitely something we need to own. But we have been a dominant side for 3 years in a row now and we need to not lose sight of that. 

    • Like 16
    3 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

     

    Average losing margins.

    2023- 8.8 pts

    this makes me cry

    • Like 4
    • Sad 2
     
    On 24/03/2024 at 15:39, DubDee said:

    Most folks on here were baffled when Tommo was dropped but now we lose 2 keys backs people aren’t thinking he comes in?

    He should definitely come in imo 

    Gotta be Tomlinson.
    If not, why are we feeding him?
    Still, I said the same thing about Grundy last year.

    Edited by Fork 'em

    • Like 1
    • Love 1

    Anyone watched Port this year? Anything they're doing differently?


    23 hours ago, whatwhat say what said:

    game will be won / lost in the midfield

    gawn, oliver, viney, petracca, sparrow, langdon, windsor, billings vs soldo, butters, rozee, drew, farrell, wines, houston, boak

    they bat deeper than us, i would say, but we have higher quality

    i love watching butters - one of the best players running around at the moment

    Do you think we might tag butters?

    40+ possessions and goals against us last time?

    4 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

    Do you think we might tag butters?

    40+ possessions and goals against us last time?

    I can’t see us tagging under Goodwin. He will back our defensive system. 

    51 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

    Anyone watched Port this year? Anything they're doing differently?

    They’ve got Ratugolea and Zerk-Thatcher as their new key defenders. I don’t rate ZT but he beat Tom Lynch on the weekend. 

    They free Aliir to be like Lever. 

    That might be a reason the FD pick Tomlinson and, if Lever plays, put Petty forward. Make Aliir a bit more honest.

    • Like 1
    1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

    Do you think we might tag butters?

    40+ possessions and goals against us last time?

    nope

    he did all that in the wet and we still barely lost

    • Thanks 1
    On 25/03/2024 at 08:08, Gawndy the Great said:

    There is a good chance we walk from our visit to SA 2-0. 

     

    Just like a Viking raid on some unsuspecting monasteries in Northumbria. Ensure the plunder includes cases of Grange Hermitage. Leave the women.

    Angry Get This Out Of Here GIF by WWE

     

    Edited by Tarax Club
    Bon Vivants?


    2 hours ago, jnrmac said:

    Do you think we might tag butters?

    40+ possessions and goals against us last time?

    Probably not a direct run withtag, but could go with team match up whereby, Sparrow runs with him around the ground in general play and responsibility goes to possibly Viney at the CBDs and around the ground stoppages.

     

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1
    3 minutes ago, Pennant St Dee said:

    Probably not a direct run withtag, but could go with team match up whereby, Sparrow runs with him around the ground in general play and responsibility goes to possibly Viney at the CBDs and around the ground stoppages.

     

    I think we also need to get physical with him, not illegally but when the chance is there put a heavy tackle on.

    Butters is only slight, though he is super quick. 

     

    23 hours ago, danielE288 said:

    To the posters during the match who were certain Lever had done his ACL, I hope you have learnt a valuable lesson here

    What would that lesson be? Lever himself feared he’d ruptured it.

    • Clap 1
    On 23/03/2024 at 19:57, Big Col said:

    Petty went well down back and will have to play there the next 2 games despite training as a forward all summer.

     

    Harry was undervalued as a back in the shadow of May and Lever and may possibly be overvalued up forward given the small sample size. It was a ( desperate) needs based move at the time 

    Move him back while BBB can still get around.Take the load off TMac.

    Time for JVR and Fritta to plant the flag as a regular working duo and for appropriate supply to be upgraded to  "elite".

    Clearly honouring BBB's long leads is part of that picture as long as it lasts

    Season defining fortnight imo

     

    Edited by IRW

    • Like 1
    23 hours ago, danielE288 said:

    To the posters during the match who were certain Lever had done his ACL, I hope you have learnt a valuable lesson here

    I trust you’ve also sent this condescending message to Ricky Lever. He was the one MOST certain he’d done an ACL. 


    59 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

    I trust you’ve also sent this condescending message to Ricky Lever. He was the one MOST certain he’d done an ACL. 

    To be fair Levers legs are a constant worry ,as are Mays for that matter.

    Both need mobility and closing speed as part of their excellence package.

    Paranoia is also part that package I reckon

    Edited by IRW

    • Like 2
    23 hours ago, SthSea22 said:

    B - Howes, Tomlinson (Dixon), McDonald (Marshall

    My first thoughts, without deep analysis, are that Tomlinson must keep moving close to - but not within 'bumping space' - of Dixon, and such a circular waltz will enable him to compete in a mobile role with leaps and bounds to prevent Dixon taking the 'expected mark' so often. A tall jack-in-the-box with a good leap to spoil across multiple entry points. Tomlinson's mobility will eventually wear Dixon's aerobics and stamina to hopefully, that of a buggered big man so often out-paddocked by a tall beansprout with varying approaches. Our smalls and furtive backmen must be nearby for the spoils, of course, and the subsequent upfield possessions and deliveries. 

    • Like 1
    11 hours ago, Fork 'em said:

    Gotta be Tomlinson.
    If not, why are we feeding him?
    Still, I said the same thing about Grundy last year.

    Grundy did not have the same drive to succeed with the Dees, let's face it. 

    • Like 2
     
    On 25/03/2024 at 12:09, SthSea22 said:

    In - Tomlinson & Fullerton (23rd)

    Outs - May & Lever

    B - Howes, Tomlinson (Dixon), McDonald (Marshall)

    HB - Rivers, Hore (Finlayson), McVee 

    C - Langdon, Petracca, Windsor

    HF -Neal-Bullen, van Rooyen, Pickett

    F - Fritsch, Brown, Petty

    FOLL - Gawn, Viney, Oliver

    INT - Salem, Chandler, Sparrow, Billings

    23rd - Fullerton 

    I would swap Tommo and Tom Mac.

    Tom Mac is better suited to Dixon and Tommo to Marshall.

    • Like 4
    19 minutes ago, Redleg said:

    I would swap Tommo and Tom Mac.

    Tom Mac is better suited to Dixon and Tommo to Marshall.

    Just think Dixon will swallow T Mac one on one


    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    Go to topic listing

    Featured Content

    • FEATURE: 1925

      A hundred years ago today, on 2 May 1925, Melbourne kicked off the new season with a 47 point victory over St Kilda to take top place on the VFL ladder after the opening round of the new season.  Top place was a relatively unknown position for the team then known as the “Fuchsias.” They had finished last in 1923 and rose by only one place in the following year although the final home and away round heralded a promise of things to come when they surprised the eventual premiers Essendon. That victory set the stage for more improvement and it came rapidly. In this series, I will tell the story of how the 1925 season unfolded for the Melbourne Football Club and how it made the VFL finals for the first time in a decade on the way to the ultimate triumph a year later.

        • Love
        • Thanks
        • Like
      • 0 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • PREVIEW: West Coast

      Saturday’s election night game in Perth between the West Coast Eagles and Melbourne represents 18th vs 15th which makes it a tough decision as to which party to favour. The Eagles have yet to break the ice under their new coach in Andrew McQualter who is the second understudy in a row to confront Demon Coach Simon Goodwin who was also winless until a fortnight ago. On that basis, many punters might be considering to go with the donkey vote but I’ve been assigned with the task of helping readers to come to a considered opinion on this matter of vital importance across the nation. It was almost a year ago that I wrote a preview here of the Demons’ away game against the Eagles (under the name William from Waalitj because it was Indigenous Round).  I issued a warning that it was a danger game, based on my local knowledge that the home team were no longer easybeats and that they possessed a wunderkind generational player in Harley Reid who was capable of producing stellar performances playing among men a decade and more older than he.  At the time, the Eagles already had two wins off the back of a couple of the young man’s masterclasses and they had recently given the Bombers a scare straight after their Anzac Day blockbuster draw against the then reigning premiers.

        • Thanks
        • Like
      • 1 reply
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • NON-MFC: Round 08

      Round 08 of the 2025 AFL Season kicks off on Thursday with a must-win game for the Bombers to stay in touch with the top eight, while the struggling Roos seek a morale-boosting upset. Friday sees the Saints desperate for a win as well if they are to stay in finals contention and their opponents the Dockers will be eager to crack in to the Top 8 with a win on the road. Saturday kicks off with a pivotal clash for both sides asthe Bulldogs look to solidify their top-eight spot, while Port seeks to shake their pretender tag. Then the Crows will be looking to steady their topsy turvy season against a resurgent Blues looking to make it 4 wins on the trot. On Election Night a Blockbuster will see the ladder-leading Pies take on the Cats, who are keen to bounce back after a narrow loss. On Sunday the Sydney Derby promises fireworks as the Giants aim to cement their top-eight status, while the Swans fight to keep their season alive. The Hawks, celebrating their centenary, will be looking to easily account for the Tigers who are desperate to halt their slide. The Round concludes on Sunday Night with a top end of the table QClash with significant ladder implications; both Queensland teams are in scintillating form. Who are you tipping this week and what are the best results for the Demons?

      • 153 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • PREGAME: West Coast

      The Demons hit the road in Round 8, heading to Perth to face the West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium. With momentum building, the Dees will be aiming for a third straight victory to keep their season revival on course. Who comes in and who goes out?

        • Thanks
      • 563 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • REPORT: Richmond

      The fans who turned up to the MCG for Melbourne’s Anzac Day Eve clash against Richmond would have been disappointed if they turned up to see a great spectacle. As much as this was a night for the 71,635 in attendance to commemorate heroes of the nation’s past wars, it was also a time for the Melbourne Football Club to consolidate upon its first win after a horrific start to the 2025 season. On this basis, despite the fact that it was an uninspiring and dour struggle for most of its 100 minutes, the night will be one for the fans to remember. They certainly got value out of the pre match activity honouring those who fought for their country. The MCG and the lights of the city as backdrop was made for nights such as these and, in my view, we received a more inspirational ceremony of Anzac culture than others both here and elsewhere around the country. 

        • Love
        • Thanks
        • Like
      • 0 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • CASEY: Richmond

      The match up of teams competing in our great Aussie game at its second highest level is a rarity for a work day Thursday morning but the blustery conditions that met the players at a windswept Casey Fields was something far more commonplace.They turned the opening stanza between the Casey Demons and a somewhat depleted Richmond VFL into a mess of fumbling unforced errors, spilt marks and wasted opportunities for both sides but they did set up a significant win for the home team which is exactly what transpired on this Anzac Day round opener. Casey opened up strong against the breeze with the first goal to Aidan Johnson, the Tigers quickly responded and the game degenerated into a defensive slog and the teams were level when the first siren sounded.

        • Clap
        • Thanks
        • Like
      • 0 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland
    View All