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PREGAME: Rd 03 vs Port Adelaide



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8 hours ago, Fat Tony said:

I would be worried about both Petty and Brown playing both Adelaide games. I would probably play them in one game only. Similarly Windsor. 

With the injuries and lack of VFL form, I suspect we will need to grind this out till the bye. 

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I'm not actually too worried given how well our team defence held up with both May and Lever missing for basically a half of footy. Having said that, it is Hawthorn. 

We got great replacement options in Tmac and Petty. I wouldn't be surprised if they hold the fort really well at all. The only issue I see is needing Brown to get through the next batch of games while Petty is unavailable up forward. He's been really good and I hope his body holds up through this period. 

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game will be won / lost in the midfield

gawn, oliver, viney, petracca, sparrow, langdon, windsor, billings vs soldo, butters, rozee, drew, farrell, wines, houston, boak

they bat deeper than us, i would say, but we have higher quality

i love watching butters - one of the best players running around at the moment

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32 minutes ago, MrFreeze said:

With the injuries and lack of VFL form, I suspect we will need to grind this out till the bye. 

Yeah, the early round 6 bye could be a blessing in that could allow BBB and Petty to play the next 3 games and then they have a much needed 13 day break.

Will also mean that May misses one less match with the bye.

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35 minutes ago, Smokey said:

I'm not actually too worried given how well our team defence held up with both May and Lever missing for basically a half of footy. Having said that, it is Hawthorn. 

We got great replacement options in Tmac and Petty. I wouldn't be surprised if they hold the fort really well at all. The only issue I see is needing Brown to get through the next batch of games while Petty is unavailable up forward. He's been really good and I hope his body holds up through this period. 

Our efficiency and defensive stinginess gives me good vibes for this game. All of Swans, GWS and Port had shootouts against teams i don't rate very highly. Super stingy team defence >>>> run and gun repeat inside 50 footy 

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16 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Yeah, the early round 6 bye could be a blessing in that could allow BBB and Petty to play the next 3 games and then they have a much needed 13 day break.

Will also mean that May misses one less match with the bye.

I think it works out very well for us. Gives us the freedom to go full steam ahead for the next 3 matches instead of being too cute with mid-game load management. My hope is that we win 2/3 before the bye. Port at home will be the biggest challenge imo. 

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29 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

game will be won / lost in the midfield

gawn, oliver, viney, petracca, sparrow, langdon, windsor, billings vs soldo, butters, rozee, drew, farrell, wines, houston, boak

they bat deeper than us, i would say, but we have higher quality

i love watching butters - one of the best players running around at the moment

To me the key is stopping Butters and Houston without compromising our game.  We let Butters run wild last year and it cost us big time. Hopefully we are a little more prepared for defending his movement patterns. 

Adelaide look a little lost for me, they werent the package i was expecting this year so far. There is a good chance we walk from our visit to SA 2-0. 

 

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Worst timing to be without May/maybe (in my mind, likely) Lever. 

With our forward line/goal scoring ability is still settling/being developed, we can't really afford our backline to be anything less than fortress-like. And yeah we we kept Hawthorn to a goal after halftime, but that was Hawthorn. Not Port Adelaide, in Adelaide. Big difference. 

Realistically, I think we'd be happy to come from Adelaide 1-1. Pre-injury to May/Lever, I'd say we can beat Port (tough ask) and Adelaide, but 3-2 heading into our bye will be an OK result - and something to work with once we hopefully get May back, and maybe McAdam etc. 

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I punt with a mate. Horses and footy (but haven't had a bet on the footy thus far, too variable, though i regret not making some money from the pies losses).

We have a very good record for footy bets, with one exception.

My record on suggested bets on the dees is woeful (though we had such a good run on us in 2021, including the flag, norm smith and multiple wins in the 24-30 point range that we're still probably somewhere near break even on our dees bets).

So, we've made the difficult decision to not back the dees anymore (difficult for me, not him - let's say my mate is little less naturally optimistic, read more realistic, about our chances. To be fair to him, we have been mates for 34 years and I'm probably 8-26 in terms of my preseason optimism being warranted).

I note all that by way of putting a warning on the following advice:

You can currently get 2.76 for a dees win against Port (who are 1.46 favorites), with the line at +14.5

They are simply crazy odds. Particularly if Lever ends up playing.

Defensively, they will struggle to cover our ball movement from the back half on what will be a perfect night for footy (dry, warm, but cloudy so little dew but no humidity).

And our defence is perfectly suited to nullify their two key forwards, both in terms of our zone off, help out system and our personnel.

The big slow lug, Dixon is perfectly suited as match up for Tomo. Dixon won't exploit Tomos lack of pace of the mark and Tomo is strong enough to compete. Hore and Lever can cover Marshall. 

Offensively, they will certainly trouble us with what i assume will be their normal super fast ball movement from the back half. And they will certainly get some good looks, particularly with the brilliant Rozee and Butters, and the reliable Houston, driving their transition. 

But our defensive system is the best in the AFL and we are the team best placed to stand up defensively against fast ball movement (as we have shown against the Pies last year, and even against the Swans in round one).

They deserve to be favorites on their home deck, but 1.46 is way unders. As is the 14 point line. I mean what is our average losing margin in the last three  seasons?

Suggested bet: your super on the dees to make their +14.5 line, and whatever you handy have in your bank account on the dees to win @ 2.76

Edited by binman
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1 hour ago, Demonland said:

 

To the posters during the match who were certain Lever had done his ACL, I hope you have learnt a valuable lesson here

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In - Tomlinson & Fullerton (23rd)

Outs - May & Lever

B - Howes, Tomlinson (Dixon), McDonald (Marshall)

HB - Rivers, Hore (Finlayson), McVee 

C - Langdon, Petracca, Windsor

HF -Neal-Bullen, van Rooyen, Pickett

F - Fritsch, Brown, Petty

FOLL - Gawn, Viney, Oliver

INT - Salem, Chandler, Sparrow, Billings

23rd - Fullerton 

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“Steven was obviously in a lot of pain following that heavy contact in the second quarter of Saturday’s game, so we sent him off to hospital for some scans,” Richardson said.

“The results of these showed two fractures to his ribs, and a small transverse process fracture.

“At this stage, Steven will miss this week’s match against Port Adelaide. We will continue to monitor his pain and function following that, in the lead up to our Round 4 game.”

Fellow defender Jake Lever also sat out the majority of the second half, hindered with a knee concern.

The 28-year-old underwent scans on Sunday, which ruled out any significant structural damage.

“Pleasingly, Jake has been cleared of major injury to his right knee. He, instead, looks to have irritated a joint under his kneecap,” Richardson said.

“We will see how he responds this week at training, but we are optimistic he will be available for Saturday night’s game in Adelaide.”

Melbourne will now prepare to face Port Adelaide in five days’ time, for the first of two back-to-back games at Adelaide Oval.

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5 minutes ago, Demonland said:

@Demon Dynasty posted the following photo of Chandler in the Training Thread.

20240325_121345.jpg

Small forward options?

Moniz?  Spargs still in rehab

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3 hours ago, Gawndy the Great said:

Adelaide look a little lost for me, they werent the package i was expecting this year so far. There is a good chance we walk from our visit to SA 2-0. 

I'll be happy with 1-1 and then a win over Brisbane.

Going 0-3 is my nightmare

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Now that the sun has risen and the injury position a little clearer it seems to me only one change...

Tomlinson in for May

Play Petty forward

BBB holds his place but I can't see his body holding up for the Adelaide game. A pity McAdam is not available. Fullarton is the possibility. Of course you could reverse it and play BBB in the Adelaide game if it makes more sense tactically.

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3 hours ago, danielE288 said:

To the posters during the match who were certain Lever had done his ACL, I hope you have learnt a valuable lesson here

I learned my lesson by going early on Kate Middleton.

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20 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Now that the sun has risen and the injury position a little clearer it seems to me only one change...

Tomlinson in for May

Play Petty forward

BBB holds his place but I can't see his body holding up for the Adelaide game. A pity McAdam is not available. Fullarton is the possibility. Of course you could reverse it and play BBB in the Adelaide game if it makes more sense tactically.

Assuming lever is right that's how I see it too. 

With hore as sub 3again.

If BBB needs a spell, petty could move forward and hore takes his role.

Hore is also athletic enough to play a half back flanker role giving them some flexibility if a mid has to come off.

For instance, rivers moves into the middle and hore takes his role.

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