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PREGAME: Rd 03 vs Port Adelaide

Demonland
in Melbourne Demons

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5 hours ago, binman said:

I punt with a mate. Horses and footy (but haven't had a bet on the footy thus far, too variable, though i regret not making some money from the pies losses).

We have a very good record for footy bets, with one exception.

My record on suggested bets on the dees is woeful (though we had such a good run on us in 2021, including the flag, norm smith and multiple wins in the 24-30 point range that we're still probably somewhere near break even on our dees bets).

So, we've made the difficult decision to not back the dees anymore (difficult for me, not him - let's say my mate is little less naturally optimistic, read more realistic, about our chances. To be fair to him, we have been mates for 34 years and I'm probably 8-26 in terms of my preseason optimism being warranted).

I note all that by way of putting a warning on the following advice:

You can currently get 2.76 for a dees win against Port (who are 1.46 favorites), with the line at +14.5

They are simply crazy odds. Particularly if Lever ends up playing.

Defensively, they will struggle to cover our ball movement from the back half on what will be a perfect night for footy (dry, warm, but cloudy so little dew but no humidity).

And our defence is perfectly suited to nullify their two key forwards, both in terms of our zone off, help out system and personnel.

The big slow lug, Dixon is perfectly suited as match up for Tomo. Dixon won't exploit Tomos lack of pace of the mark and Tomo is strong enough to compete. Hore and Lever can cover Marshall. 

Offensively, they will certainly trouble us with what i assume will be their normal super fast ball movement from the back half. And they will certainly get some good looks, particularly with the brilliant Rozee and Butters, and the reliable Houston, driving their transition. 

But our defensive system the best in the AFL and we are the team best placed to stand up defensively against fast ball movement (as we have shown against the Pies last year, and even against the Swans in round one).

They deserve to be favorites on their home deck, but 1.46 is way unders. As is the 14 point line. I mean what is our average losing margin in the last three  seasons?

Suggested bet: your super on the dees to make their +14.5 line, and whatever you handy have in your bank account on the dees to win @ 2.76

During our darker years a mate of mine...a Dee's fanatic would often bet against us to take the sting out of our losses. He called it insurance money. Sadly he did quite well.

    • Like 3
     
    • Author
    Name Injury Expected Return
    Ollie Sestan Concussion Test
    Jake Lever Knee Test
    Steven May Ribs 1 week 
    Lachie Hunter Calf 1 week
    Daniel Turner  Hip 2 - 3 weeks 
    Charlie Spargo Achilles 2 - 4 weeks
    Shane McAdam Hamstring 3 - 5 weeks  
    Jake Bowey Shoulder 7 weeks
    Jake Melksham  Knee 12 - 14 weeks  
     
    39 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

    During our darker years a mate of mine...a Dee's fanatic would often bet against us to take the sting out of our losses. He called it insurance money. Sadly he did quite well.

    Yes, well that's been the other part of punting on dees problem - not being able to bring myself to back against the dees, even when i know the oppo is good value.

    • Like 1
    7 hours ago, binman said:

    I mean what is our average losing margin in the last three  seasons?

    Not sure if you really wanted an answer bin, but  I thought I’d run some numbers. 

    Seasons 2021-2023. 21 losses for an average losing margin of 13.4 pts

    Average losing margins.

    2021 - 11.75 pts 

    2022 - 19.5 pts 

    2023- 8.8 pts

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    3 hours ago, binman said:

    Yes, well that's been the other part of punting on dees problem - not being able to bring myself to back against the dees, even when i know the oppo is good value.

    I have never ever backed the Demons.

    I have often bet again the Dees. Needless to say I'm well ahead. 

    I'd rather lose my money though.

     

    • Like 2
    1 hour ago, Dee Zephyr said:

    Not sure if you really wanted an answer bin, but  I thought I’d run some numbers. 

    Seasons 2021-2023. 21 losses for an average losing margin of 13.4 pts

    Average losing margins.

    2021 - 11.75 pts 

    2022 - 19.5 pts 

    2023- 8.8 pts

    Not winning the flag last year will haunt me for a long time. It was ours for the taking, but injuries, bad kicking and one POS who shall remain nameless, ruined it. 

    Supporters will say we are no good because of our straight set exists, and that is definitely something we need to own. But we have been a dominant side for 3 years in a row now and we need to not lose sight of that. 

    • Like 16
    3 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

     

    Average losing margins.

    2023- 8.8 pts

    this makes me cry

    • Like 4
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    On 24/03/2024 at 15:39, DubDee said:

    Most folks on here were baffled when Tommo was dropped but now we lose 2 keys backs people aren’t thinking he comes in?

    He should definitely come in imo 

    Gotta be Tomlinson.
    If not, why are we feeding him?
    Still, I said the same thing about Grundy last year.

    Edited by Fork 'em

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    Anyone watched Port this year? Anything they're doing differently?


    23 hours ago, whatwhat say what said:

    game will be won / lost in the midfield

    gawn, oliver, viney, petracca, sparrow, langdon, windsor, billings vs soldo, butters, rozee, drew, farrell, wines, houston, boak

    they bat deeper than us, i would say, but we have higher quality

    i love watching butters - one of the best players running around at the moment

    Do you think we might tag butters?

    40+ possessions and goals against us last time?

    4 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

    Do you think we might tag butters?

    40+ possessions and goals against us last time?

    I can’t see us tagging under Goodwin. He will back our defensive system. 

    51 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

    Anyone watched Port this year? Anything they're doing differently?

    They’ve got Ratugolea and Zerk-Thatcher as their new key defenders. I don’t rate ZT but he beat Tom Lynch on the weekend. 

    They free Aliir to be like Lever. 

    That might be a reason the FD pick Tomlinson and, if Lever plays, put Petty forward. Make Aliir a bit more honest.

    • Like 1
    1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

    Do you think we might tag butters?

    40+ possessions and goals against us last time?

    nope

    he did all that in the wet and we still barely lost

    • Thanks 1
    On 25/03/2024 at 08:08, Gawndy the Great said:

    There is a good chance we walk from our visit to SA 2-0. 

     

    Just like a Viking raid on some unsuspecting monasteries in Northumbria. Ensure the plunder includes cases of Grange Hermitage. Leave the women.

    Angry Get This Out Of Here GIF by WWE

     

    Edited by Tarax Club
    Bon Vivants?


    2 hours ago, jnrmac said:

    Do you think we might tag butters?

    40+ possessions and goals against us last time?

    Probably not a direct run withtag, but could go with team match up whereby, Sparrow runs with him around the ground in general play and responsibility goes to possibly Viney at the CBDs and around the ground stoppages.

     

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    3 minutes ago, Pennant St Dee said:

    Probably not a direct run withtag, but could go with team match up whereby, Sparrow runs with him around the ground in general play and responsibility goes to possibly Viney at the CBDs and around the ground stoppages.

     

    I think we also need to get physical with him, not illegally but when the chance is there put a heavy tackle on.

    Butters is only slight, though he is super quick. 

     

    23 hours ago, danielE288 said:

    To the posters during the match who were certain Lever had done his ACL, I hope you have learnt a valuable lesson here

    What would that lesson be? Lever himself feared he’d ruptured it.

    • Clap 1
    On 23/03/2024 at 19:57, Big Col said:

    Petty went well down back and will have to play there the next 2 games despite training as a forward all summer.

     

    Harry was undervalued as a back in the shadow of May and Lever and may possibly be overvalued up forward given the small sample size. It was a ( desperate) needs based move at the time 

    Move him back while BBB can still get around.Take the load off TMac.

    Time for JVR and Fritta to plant the flag as a regular working duo and for appropriate supply to be upgraded to  "elite".

    Clearly honouring BBB's long leads is part of that picture as long as it lasts

    Season defining fortnight imo

     

    Edited by IRW

    • Like 1
    23 hours ago, danielE288 said:

    To the posters during the match who were certain Lever had done his ACL, I hope you have learnt a valuable lesson here

    I trust you’ve also sent this condescending message to Ricky Lever. He was the one MOST certain he’d done an ACL. 


    59 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

    I trust you’ve also sent this condescending message to Ricky Lever. He was the one MOST certain he’d done an ACL. 

    To be fair Levers legs are a constant worry ,as are Mays for that matter.

    Both need mobility and closing speed as part of their excellence package.

    Paranoia is also part that package I reckon

    Edited by IRW

    • Like 2
    23 hours ago, SthSea22 said:

    B - Howes, Tomlinson (Dixon), McDonald (Marshall

    My first thoughts, without deep analysis, are that Tomlinson must keep moving close to - but not within 'bumping space' - of Dixon, and such a circular waltz will enable him to compete in a mobile role with leaps and bounds to prevent Dixon taking the 'expected mark' so often. A tall jack-in-the-box with a good leap to spoil across multiple entry points. Tomlinson's mobility will eventually wear Dixon's aerobics and stamina to hopefully, that of a buggered big man so often out-paddocked by a tall beansprout with varying approaches. Our smalls and furtive backmen must be nearby for the spoils, of course, and the subsequent upfield possessions and deliveries. 

    • Like 1
    11 hours ago, Fork 'em said:

    Gotta be Tomlinson.
    If not, why are we feeding him?
    Still, I said the same thing about Grundy last year.

    Grundy did not have the same drive to succeed with the Dees, let's face it. 

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    On 25/03/2024 at 12:09, SthSea22 said:

    In - Tomlinson & Fullerton (23rd)

    Outs - May & Lever

    B - Howes, Tomlinson (Dixon), McDonald (Marshall)

    HB - Rivers, Hore (Finlayson), McVee 

    C - Langdon, Petracca, Windsor

    HF -Neal-Bullen, van Rooyen, Pickett

    F - Fritsch, Brown, Petty

    FOLL - Gawn, Viney, Oliver

    INT - Salem, Chandler, Sparrow, Billings

    23rd - Fullerton 

    I would swap Tommo and Tom Mac.

    Tom Mac is better suited to Dixon and Tommo to Marshall.

    • Like 4
    19 minutes ago, Redleg said:

    I would swap Tommo and Tom Mac.

    Tom Mac is better suited to Dixon and Tommo to Marshall.

    Just think Dixon will swallow T Mac one on one


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