On 25/03/2024 at 00:36, binman said:

I punt with a mate. Horses and footy (but haven't had a bet on the footy thus far, too variable, though i regret not making some money from the pies losses).

We have a very good record for footy bets, with one exception.

My record on suggested bets on the dees is woeful (though we had such a good run on us in 2021, including the flag, norm smith and multiple wins in the 24-30 point range that we're still probably somewhere near break even on our dees bets).

So, we've made the difficult decision to not back the dees anymore (difficult for me, not him - let's say my mate is little less naturally optimistic, read more realistic, about our chances. To be fair to him, we have been mates for 34 years and I'm probably 8-26 in terms of my preseason optimism being warranted).

I note all that by way of putting a warning on the following advice:

You can currently get 2.76 for a dees win against Port (who are 1.46 favorites), with the line at +14.5

They are simply crazy odds. Particularly if Lever ends up playing.

Defensively, they will struggle to cover our ball movement from the back half on what will be a perfect night for footy (dry, warm, but cloudy so little dew but no humidity).

And our defence is perfectly suited to nullify their two key forwards, both in terms of our zone off, help out system and personnel.

The big slow lug, Dixon is perfectly suited as match up for Tomo. Dixon won't exploit Tomos lack of pace of the mark and Tomo is strong enough to compete. Hore and Lever can cover Marshall. 

Offensively, they will certainly trouble us with what i assume will be their normal super fast ball movement from the back half. And they will certainly get some good looks, particularly with the brilliant Rozee and Butters, and the reliable Houston, driving their transition. 

But our defensive system the best in the AFL and we are the team best placed to stand up defensively against fast ball movement (as we have shown against the Pies last year, and even against the Swans in round one).

They deserve to be favorites on their home deck, but 1.46 is way unders. As is the 14 point line. I mean what is our average losing margin in the last three  seasons?

Suggested bet: your super on the dees to make their +14.5 line, and whatever you handy have in your bank account on the dees to win @ 2.76

During our darker years a mate of mine...a Dee's fanatic would often bet against us to take the sting out of our losses. He called it insurance money. Sadly he did quite well.

So will Lever play?

Name	Injury	Expected Return
Ollie Sestan	Concussion	Test
Jake Lever	Knee	Test
Steven May	Ribs	1 week
Lachie Hunter	Calf	1 week
Daniel Turner	Hip	2 - 3 weeks
Charlie Spargo	Achilles	2 - 4 weeks
Shane McAdam	Hamstring	3 - 5 weeks
Jake Bowey	Shoulder	7 weeks
Jake Melksham	Knee	12 - 14 weeks

  On 25/03/2024 at 06:25, leave it to deever said:

During our darker years a mate of mine...a Dee's fanatic would often bet against us to take the sting out of our losses. He called it insurance money. Sadly he did quite well.

Yes, well that's been the other part of punting on dees problem - not being able to bring myself to back against the dees, even when i know the oppo is good value.

  On 25/03/2024 at 00:36, binman said:

I mean what is our average losing margin in the last three  seasons?

Not sure if you really wanted an answer bin, but  I thought I’d run some numbers. 

Seasons 2021-2023. 21 losses for an average losing margin of 13.4 pts

Average losing margins.

2021 - 11.75 pts 

2022 - 19.5 pts 

2023- 8.8 pts

  On 25/03/2024 at 07:06, binman said:

Yes, well that's been the other part of punting on dees problem - not being able to bring myself to back against the dees, even when i know the oppo is good value.

I have never ever backed the Demons.

I have often bet again the Dees. Needless to say I'm well ahead. 

I'd rather lose my money though.

 

  On 25/03/2024 at 08:28, Dee Zephyr said:

Not sure if you really wanted an answer bin, but  I thought I’d run some numbers. 

Seasons 2021-2023. 21 losses for an average losing margin of 13.4 pts

Average losing margins.

2021 - 11.75 pts 

2022 - 19.5 pts 

2023- 8.8 pts

Not winning the flag last year will haunt me for a long time. It was ours for the taking, but injuries, bad kicking and one POS who shall remain nameless, ruined it. 

Supporters will say we are no good because of our straight set exists, and that is definitely something we need to own. But we have been a dominant side for 3 years in a row now and we need to not lose sight of that. 

  On 25/03/2024 at 08:28, Dee Zephyr said:

 

Average losing margins.

2023- 8.8 pts

this makes me cry

  On 24/03/2024 at 04:39, DubDee said:

Most folks on here were baffled when Tommo was dropped but now we lose 2 keys backs people aren’t thinking he comes in?

He should definitely come in imo 

Gotta be Tomlinson.
If not, why are we feeding him?
Still, I said the same thing about Grundy last year.

Edited March 25, 20241 yr by Fork 'em

Anyone watched Port this year? Anything they're doing differently?

  On 24/03/2024 at 21:58, whatwhat say what said:

game will be won / lost in the midfield

gawn, oliver, viney, petracca, sparrow, langdon, windsor, billings vs soldo, butters, rozee, drew, farrell, wines, houston, boak

they bat deeper than us, i would say, but we have higher quality

i love watching butters - one of the best players running around at the moment

Do you think we might tag butters?

40+ possessions and goals against us last time?

  On 25/03/2024 at 21:05, jnrmac said:

Do you think we might tag butters?

40+ possessions and goals against us last time?

I can’t see us tagging under Goodwin. He will back our defensive system. 

  On 25/03/2024 at 21:02, jnrmac said:

Anyone watched Port this year? Anything they're doing differently?

They’ve got Ratugolea and Zerk-Thatcher as their new key defenders. I don’t rate ZT but he beat Tom Lynch on the weekend. 

They free Aliir to be like Lever. 

That might be a reason the FD pick Tomlinson and, if Lever plays, put Petty forward. Make Aliir a bit more honest.

  On 25/03/2024 at 21:05, jnrmac said:

Do you think we might tag butters?

40+ possessions and goals against us last time?

nope

he did all that in the wet and we still barely lost

  On 24/03/2024 at 22:38, Gawndy the Great said:

There is a good chance we walk from our visit to SA 2-0. 

 

Just like a Viking raid on some unsuspecting monasteries in Northumbria. Ensure the plunder includes cases of Grange Hermitage. Leave the women.

 

Edited March 25, 20241 yr by Tarax Club
Bon Vivants?

  On 25/03/2024 at 21:05, jnrmac said:

Do you think we might tag butters?

40+ possessions and goals against us last time?

Probably not a direct run withtag, but could go with team match up whereby, Sparrow runs with him around the ground in general play and responsibility goes to possibly Viney at the CBDs and around the ground stoppages.

 

  On 26/03/2024 at 00:26, Pennant St Dee said:

Probably not a direct run withtag, but could go with team match up whereby, Sparrow runs with him around the ground in general play and responsibility goes to possibly Viney at the CBDs and around the ground stoppages.

 

I think we also need to get physical with him, not illegally but when the chance is there put a heavy tackle on.

Butters is only slight, though he is super quick. 

 

  On 25/03/2024 at 01:07, danielE288 said:

To the posters during the match who were certain Lever had done his ACL, I hope you have learnt a valuable lesson here

What would that lesson be? Lever himself feared he’d ruptured it.

  On 23/03/2024 at 08:57, Big Col said:

Petty went well down back and will have to play there the next 2 games despite training as a forward all summer.

 

Harry was undervalued as a back in the shadow of May and Lever and may possibly be overvalued up forward given the small sample size. It was a ( desperate) needs based move at the time 

Move him back while BBB can still get around.Take the load off TMac.

Time for JVR and Fritta to plant the flag as a regular working duo and for appropriate supply to be upgraded to  "elite".

Clearly honouring BBB's long leads is part of that picture as long as it lasts

Season defining fortnight imo

 

Edited March 26, 20241 yr by IRW

  On 25/03/2024 at 01:07, danielE288 said:

To the posters during the match who were certain Lever had done his ACL, I hope you have learnt a valuable lesson here

I trust you’ve also sent this condescending message to Ricky Lever. He was the one MOST certain he’d done an ACL. 

  On 26/03/2024 at 01:02, WalkingCivilWar said:

I trust you’ve also sent this condescending message to Ricky Lever. He was the one MOST certain he’d done an ACL. 

To be fair Levers legs are a constant worry ,as are Mays for that matter.

Both need mobility and closing speed as part of their excellence package.

Paranoia is also part that package I reckon

Edited March 26, 20241 yr by IRW

  On 25/03/2024 at 01:09, SthSea22 said:

B - Howes, Tomlinson (Dixon), McDonald (Marshall

My first thoughts, without deep analysis, are that Tomlinson must keep moving close to - but not within 'bumping space' - of Dixon, and such a circular waltz will enable him to compete in a mobile role with leaps and bounds to prevent Dixon taking the 'expected mark' so often. A tall jack-in-the-box with a good leap to spoil across multiple entry points. Tomlinson's mobility will eventually wear Dixon's aerobics and stamina to hopefully, that of a buggered big man so often out-paddocked by a tall beansprout with varying approaches. Our smalls and furtive backmen must be nearby for the spoils, of course, and the subsequent upfield possessions and deliveries. 

  On 25/03/2024 at 13:41, Fork 'em said:

Gotta be Tomlinson.
If not, why are we feeding him?
Still, I said the same thing about Grundy last year.

Grundy did not have the same drive to succeed with the Dees, let's face it. 

  On 25/03/2024 at 01:09, SthSea22 said:

In - Tomlinson & Fullerton (23rd)

Outs - May & Lever

B - Howes, Tomlinson (Dixon), McDonald (Marshall)

HB - Rivers, Hore (Finlayson), McVee 

C - Langdon, Petracca, Windsor

HF -Neal-Bullen, van Rooyen, Pickett

F - Fritsch, Brown, Petty

FOLL - Gawn, Viney, Oliver

INT - Salem, Chandler, Sparrow, Billings

23rd - Fullerton 

I would swap Tommo and Tom Mac.

Tom Mac is better suited to Dixon and Tommo to Marshall.

  On 26/03/2024 at 01:47, Redleg said:

I would swap Tommo and Tom Mac.

Tom Mac is better suited to Dixon and Tommo to Marshall.

Just think Dixon will swallow T Mac one on one