The Pick 1 Thread

[gs77 4,020]

2 hours ago, Clintosaurus said:

Corn still thinks we end up with #1. Reckon it happens on draft night.

I'm not sure how this would work from West Coast's perspective. Our picks aren't high enough to get Curtain, so why would they trade out 1 to us, thus missing out on Reid, while also missing curtain. They'd be mad not to trade with North for 2 or 3 though. That way they'd secure curtain plus other talent with what they get back.

[bing181 9,177]

3 hours ago, Pennant St Dee said:

I suspect North will give them 3 and 17 or 18 for 1, there will be an agreement that North don’t take Curtin with pick 2. 

Who knows, but from everything we've heard WC want 2 single-digit picks to even pick up the phone. Everyone keeps saying that there's a real gap this year between the first 8 to 10 and the rest. 

[titan_uranus 24,957]

I'm not sure where I sit on our offer. On paper it reads like massive overs. But the mail on Reid is such that he appears as likely as any draftee to be a 200-game player. If we think 6 and 11 aren't going to produce that sort of quality, then I'm not necessarily against trading them. 

What I am sure about, though, is that there's no reason for West Coast to agree until closer to draft night. Hold out, make us sweat, make North up their offer, let clubs bid against each other, get a firmer read on the likelihood of Curtain being available at 6. No need at all to do that deal now and if they are interested, they'll talk to us closer to the night.

[KingDingAling 3,750]

If it looks like Curtain slides to 6 on draft night, then WC have an offer to consider. Otherwise they back themselves in, and take a Vic kid, who likely comes back in a few years. They cannot afford the wasted development years should he not stay, and they later have to go through the draft again. We are in a great position, as 6, 11 and a 2024 F1 is overs - 9 years out of 10 that’s overs. 

[No10 455]

This is maybe a brilliant strategy. We’ve put our best offer. North are low balling.

Why our position is so smart imv, is that WC are naturally holding out for the best offer from North.

The question is: what’s North’s best offer without us trading with them? I’d say it’s 2+15+17 for P1

Is that better than 6, 11, 42 and F1? Perhaps slightly but also depends on what players WC want and where they think they’ll fall. And I doubt North would give that up, given their huge delisting numbers.

It’s a brilliant play because we’ve given WC our best offer.

But we will have undoubtedly simultaneously made an offer for 3. This one however a low ball. I’d guess 6 + 11 for 3 + 15.

North need our 6 and 11 to make the deal they want with WC. Which you’d assume is what everyone has floated here many times.

But we’ve made the squeeze play.

WC have our best offer, eventually North will stop low-balling and give them theirs.

But we can squeeze, we can hold out on facilitating the 3 club swap.
We can even hold until after WC make their No 1 selection before we budge on our swaps with North. If we want 3, wait to then. It’s smart.

Edited October 25, 2023 by No10
Inaccurate

[djr 1,399]

1 hour ago, No10 said:

This is maybe a brilliant strategy. We’ve put our best offer. North are low balling.

Why our position is so smart imv, is that WC are naturally holding out for the best offer from North.

The question is: what’s North’s best offer without us trading with them? I’d say it’s 2+15+17 for P1

Is that better than 6, 11, 42 and F1? Perhaps slightly but also depends on what players WC want and where they think they’ll fall. And I doubt North would give that up, given their huge delisting numbers.

It’s a brilliant play because we’ve given WC our best offer.

But we will have undoubtedly simultaneously made an offer for 3. This one however a low ball. I’d guess 6 + 11 for 3 + 15.

North need our 6 and 11 to make the deal they want with WC. Which you’d assume is what everyone has floated here many times.

But we’ve made the squeeze play.

WC have our best offer, eventually North will stop low-balling and give them theirs.

But we can squeeze, we can hold out on facilitating the 3 club swap.
We can even hold until after WC make their No 1 selection before we budge on our swaps with North. If we want 3, wait to then. It’s smart.

Good analysis. I guess JT would need to assess whether there is any quality left at p15. 

[rpfc 28,150]

10 hours ago, Demon Dynasty said:

As per Jack, IF true that would be a massive overs offer.

In points WC would need to come back with pick 10 for a parity outcome if you assume our F1 would fall at around 18 or so.  Higher than pick 10 if our F1 was likely reap a better outcome.

As his adversaries often responsed to agent 86's far fetched excuses when he was caught red-handed spying...

"I find that hard to believe"

 

Forget about points for deals like this. No one is trying to get a FS or academy player. We want the best player in the draft - the points don’t come Into it at all. At all.

[bandicoot 1,395]

10 hours ago, gs77 said:

I'm not sure how this would work from West Coast's perspective. Our picks aren't high enough to get Curtain, so why would they trade out 1 to us, thus missing out on Reid, while also missing curtain. They'd be mad not to trade with North for 2 or 3 though. That way they'd secure curtain plus other talent with what they get back.

No non WA club is wasting a top 5 pick on curtin especially when he isn’t much better than the others around him. 
he will slide to 6. 

[The Jackson FIX 2,918]

8 hours ago, KingDingAling said:

 

If it looks like Curtain slides to 6 on draft night

 

Norf will be doing everything in their power to make Wet Toast think Curtain won’t get past pick #3.

and Wet Toast will be doing everything in their power to make Norf think that the Eagles have convinced Curtain there is a warm bed for him back home if he gets chosen by a Vic club.

Fascinating game of poker. 

Edited October 25, 2023 by The Jackson FIX

[bandicoot 1,395]

9 hours ago, KingDingAling said:

If it looks like Curtain slides to 6 on draft night, then WC have an offer to consider. Otherwise they back themselves in, and take a Vic kid, who likely comes back in a few years. They cannot afford the wasted development years should he not stay, and they later have to go through the draft again. We are in a great position, as 6, 11 and a 2024 F1 is overs - 9 years out of 10 that’s overs. 

Agree. Curtin will land at 6.. 

[bandicoot 1,395]

16 minutes ago, The Jackson FIX said:

Norf will be doing everything in their power to make Wet Toast think Curtain won’t get past pick #3.

and Wet Toast will be doing everything in their power to make Norf think that the Eagles have convinced Curtain there is a warm bed for him back home if he gets chosen by a Vic club.

Fascinating game of poker. 

No phantom draft has curtin top 5… north aren’t picking him for pick 2 or 3

[Clintosaurus 7,745]

Curtin isn't going top 3. Reckon when Lamby said 2 picks he meant Harley Reid and Kynan Brown.

[Redleg 40,621]

17 hours ago, Gawndy the Great said:

That is silly on both fronts.

1. Melbourne for putting up a stupid over-the-top bid for one player and,

2.WC for rejected an over-the-top bid for Pick 1.

6,11,42,F1 for Pick 1 is incredibly generous. They are delusional if they think Norf is going to hand over Pick 2,3. They are likely in a position where they have settled on Reid and it will take considerable overs for them to budge. 

 

 

I think North will get 1 but it will take getting 6 off us for 3.

2,6 and more will give WC a guaranteed Curtin and another high pick plus more.

WC won’t reject that.

However we must keep 11 to get another good player.

6 and F1 is plenty for 3 and should get that deal done, which will see North pass it on and be part of deal for 1.

We should keep 1 and ask for one of North late first rounders back and bundle it with 11 to get a bit higher.

[poita 3,889]

I hope we keep 6 and then see if WC are interested on draft night. Maybe offer to trade 6 for their 2024 1st round pick, which will hopefully be top 2. Then we'll see how keen they are on Curtin.

 

[No10 455]

8 minutes ago, Redleg said:

I think North will get 1 but it will take getting 6 off us for 3.

2,6 and more will give WC a guaranteed Curtin and another high pick plus more.

WC won’t reject that.

However we must keep 11 to get another good player.

6 and F1 is plenty for 3 and should get that deal done, which will see North pass it on and be part of deal for 1.

We should keep 1 and ask for one of North late first rounders back and bundle it with 11 to get a bit higher.

This would effectively be North giving 2 and 3 for 1.

Don’t think they can do that.

We’d have to give 6+11. Imagine we’d ask for 15 back as well. Which they won’t do.

So if we get to draft night, what are the chances of WC accepting our offer? What compels us to deal with North before their pick 3?

[demoncat 1,105]

Curious what people think the value of Geelong’s pick 8 would be?

Cal Twomey has stated that we - as well as Adelaide - are interested

With Geelong seemingly interested in taking multiple picks to the draft, would 11, 42 and perhaps a future second or third round pick secure it? Or is that overs? 

Could be the missing piece of a play for pick 1 or another strong move up the draft for us

[bandicoot 1,395]

25 minutes ago, Redleg said:

I think North will get 1 but it will take getting 6 off us for 3.

2,6 and more will give WC a guaranteed Curtin and another high pick plus more.

WC won’t reject that.

However we must keep 11 to get another good player.

6 and F1 is plenty for 3 and should get that deal done, which will see North pass it on and be part of deal for 1.

We should keep 1 and ask for one of North late first rounders back and bundle it with 11 to get a bit higher.

If dees finish top 4 next year they will essentially be giving pick 14 to drop down by 3 spots. No thanks

[old55 23,236]

I'm going all in, assuming we like Duursma ...

WC give 1 + 23 get 2 + 6 + 42 - result: 2, 6, 37, 42, 58

North give 2 + 3 + 18 get 1 + 11 + F1 - result: 1, 11, 15, 17, 57 + F1

MFC give 6 + 11 + F1 + 42 get 3 + 18 + 23 - result 3, 18, 23, minus F1

23 is a valuable pick because it's the first pick in round 2 on night 2 and clubs who want a slider will pay a F1 for it.

You can leave the F1 and 18 out of it if you prefer.

Edited October 25, 2023 by old55

[jnrmac 19,996]

I don't think Melbourne is going all into get pick 3. Its pick 1 or nothing (ie: keep 6 and 11)

[Lil_red_fire_engine 10,988]

23 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

I don't think Melbourne is going all into get pick 3. Its pick 1 or nothing (ie: keep 6 and 11)

I sense we rate Reid/Duursma significantly higher than all others available and will attempt to do whatever we can to land either. 

Edited October 26, 2023 by Lil_red_fire_engine

[Colm 1,997]

1 hour ago, demoncat said:

Curious what people think the value of Geelong’s pick 8 would be?

Cal Twomey has stated that we - as well as Adelaide - are interested

With Geelong seemingly interested in taking multiple picks to the draft, would 11, 42 and perhaps a future second or third round pick secure it? Or is that overs? 

Could be the missing piece of a play for pick 1 or another strong move up the draft for us

In a way we already set the price for Cats pick 8 with the deal we did to move up 3 spots from 14 to 11. 
 

Cats will want two first round picks and I’d be surprised if they would accept any deal that didn’t include a pick in the first 11. 
They will be looking for Adelaide’s 10 & 20. If we were to get their pick 8 I think we will have to offer pick 11 & F1. But we may need to do a deal with north for one of their later teen picks for our F1 first. 
Cal says they want to take 5 picks to the draft. 

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,437]

If that graphic is accurate and, let's face it, there's every chance it's not, then West Cost are keeping Pick 1 and there's not a whole lot of point wasting emotional energy on it.  Nth's offer is way overs and our is decent.
They'll either need to backtrack or hang onto it.
A lot of West Coast fans think they're a shot for picks 2 and 3.  To that I'd say: 'Your not' or, if they do get 2 and 3 in exchange for 1, then that should be the end of any draft assistance for Nth Melbourne for ever and ever.

 

[jnrmac 19,996]

1 minute ago, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

If that graphic is accurate and, let's face it, there's every chance it's not, then West Cost are keeping Pick 1 and there's not a whole lot of point wasting emotional energy on it.  Nth's offer is way overs and our is decent.
They'll either need to backtrack or hang onto it.
A lot of West Coast fans think they're a shot for picks 2 and 3.  To that I'd say: 'Your not' or, if they do get 2 and 3 in exchange for 1, then that should be the end of any draft assistance for Nth Melbourne for ever and ever.

 

I'd be shocked if North gave up 2 and 3 for Pick 1. Just doesn't make sense when North have a lot of rebuilding to do with KPPs.

[SthSea22 593]

WC will win either way

NM and MFC will be paying overs 

[Sydee 4,324]

4 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

I'd be shocked if North gave up 2 and 3 for Pick 1. Just doesn't make sense when North have a lot of rebuilding to do with KPPs.

I agree, it feels like it's more likely that WC take what has been offered by MFC which IMO is quite generous or Reid is picked by WC, and they live with the threat of him wanting to go home which despite what anyone says would be real.

Noth need to build their list and one player albeit considered to be very good doesn't really help them do that.