PREGAME: Rd 23 vs Hawthorn

[Roost it far 6,234]

42 minutes ago, The Jackson FIX said:

Tommo playing, take that one to the bank.
 

Which means Smith up forward and Grundy not playing (speculation).

So I’m taking speculation to the bank?

[Spargonicus 426]

1 hour ago, Redleg said:

They still have talls in Kozitsche, Denver-Barass and Brady who all played forward last week. Tommo should play.

I know Tommo has limitations, but he’s a confidence player. Get him in from now. Back him. Push Smith up forward. Enable Lever and May to carve up through intercepts. Spargo in for laser f50 entries. Get the flag. 

[Redleg 37,744]

Just now, Spargonicus said:

I know Tommo has limitations, but he’s a confidence player. Get him in from now. Back him. Push Smith up forward. Enable Lever and May to carve up through intercepts. Spargo in for laser f50 entries. Get the flag. 

Sounds good. Can you organise that flag.

[poita 3,632]

Spargo, Laurie and Schache - how bad is our depth if they are next in line? Hopefully Tomlinson plays, and Harmes and McDonald can find some form for Casey.

[ChaserJ 3,964]

1 hour ago, Rab D Nesbitt said:

Just seeing Josh Schache's name in the extended squad makes me nervous. 

I’m guessing one of Smith or Schache will play as a nullifier on Sicily. Schache played that role well on Allir Allir in ‘21, Smith very capable of playing that role as well.

Take your pick of Tomlinson or Schache as the in, Smith will be at the opposite end of the ground to one of those two.

[DemonWA 3,448]

I'm of the opinion we should try Schache. Can't be less effective than Grundy if were talking pure forward role only, and is worth a look before we go back to BBB and Tmac

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,251]

Tomlinson should come in.

The Lever/May/Tomlinson defensive combination is undefeated since our win against GWS in round 17 2020 at the GABBA.

The combination works effectively and I have no idea why the club deviates from it.

Tomlinson is statistically one of the best one of one defenders in the AFL according to Champion Data, which enables Lever to have an intercept picnic.

[At the break of Gawn 3,531]

I’ll eat my hat if Grundy is selected based on Goody’s answer in the presser.

I think the changes will be:

Ins: Tomlinson

Out: Grundy, Hibbo (sub)

I think sub will be one of JJ, Spargo or Laurie.

 

[Binmans PA 26,243]

52 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Tomlinson should come in.

The Lever/May/Tomlinson defensive combination is undefeated since our win against GWS in round 17 2020 at the GABBA.

The combination works effectively and I have no idea why the club deviates from it.

Tomlinson is statistically one of the best one of one defenders in the AFL according to Champion Data, which enables Lever to have an intercept picnic.

So you're thinking Grundy for Tomlinson and Smith forward...?

RE the May, Lever and Tomlinson record, I had to go back and double check this as I thought they'd dropped a game together last year or even this year, but spot on. That's a crazy record.

It might partly be a result of the MC picking Tomlinson for very specific roles where he doesn't get exposed and allows the other two to intercept/win their roles, this could equally be wholly unfair to Tomlinson.

But it is interesting we're clearly concerned about something there. He definitely held up, as did the May/Lever/Tomlinson partnership on King's Birthday. In fact, the entire team from the KB game will be available as of next week via Fritta (Petty didn't play), and I had thought for the majority of the season that minus Smith up forward, we'd basically go with that set up for the finals. However, with Petty's injury, it's opened up Smith as his replacement. I think there's definitely room for Grundy, but I reckon the MC have put a line through him now.

That means, I think the forwardline we'll go with for finals (assuming TMac and BB are done - this seems likely) is JVR, Fritta, Smith, ANB, Kozzy, Chandler and Spargo. While the defensive set up could well be the same as KB (with Bowey missing out) - May, Lever, Tomlinson, Salem, McVee, Rivers and Hibbo (except Hibbo was tactical sub that day). This means Clarry would replace JJ from that KB team, leaving Max, Clarry, Trac, Viney, Brayshaw, Sparrow, plus Langdon and Hunter.

The tactical sub choice could then come from either Grundy (as strange as that sounds), JJ, Harmes or Bowey.

I know @old55 wouldn't have Spargo, so if you left Charlie out, you could play an extra mid or fit Bowey at the back. Equally, if you left Hibbo out, you could fit Bowey at the back. 

Here is the team as above. To me, it's a little short in the front half, but as we saw with the ball movement on KB, this isn't such a problem if we move it quickly and turn the ball over/intercept in the middle of the ground.

McVee May Hibbo

Lever Tomlinson Salem

Langdon Oliver Hunter

Petracca Smith ANB

Fritta JVR Kozzy

Gawn Viney Brayshaw

Rivers Sparrow Spargo Chandler

There's also a chance they could pretty much play this team against Hawthorn minus Fritta for the extra mid in JJ.

Edited August 17, 2023 by Binmans PA

[layzie 29,046]

Very happy with the team..

[Stu 875]

6 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

So you're thinking Grundy for Tomlinson and Smith forward...?

RE the May, Lever and Tomlinson record, I had to go back and double check this as I thought they'd dropped a game together last year or even this year, but spot on. That's a crazy record.

It might partly be a result of the MC picking Tomlinson for very specific roles where he doesn't get exposed and allows the other two to intercept/win their roles, this could equally be wholly unfair to Tomlinson.

But it is interesting we're clearly concerned about something there. He definitely held up, as did the May/Lever/Tomlinson partnership on King's Birthday. In fact, the entire team from the KB game will be available as of next week via Fritta (Petty didn't play), and I had thought for the majority of the season that minus Smith up forward, we'd basically go with that set up for the finals. However, with Petty's injury, it's opened up Smith as his replacement. I think there's definitely room for Grundy, but I reckon the MC have put a line through him now.

That means, I think the forwardline we'll go with for finals (assuming TMac and BB are done - this seems likely) is JVR, Fritta, Smith, ANB, Kozzy, Chandler and Spargo. While the defensive set up could well be the same as KB (with Bowey missing out) - May, Lever, Tomlinson, Salem, McVee, Rivers and Hibbo (except Hibbo was tactical sub that day). This means Clarry would replace JJ from that KB team, leaving Max, Clarry, Trac, Viney, Brayshaw, Sparrow, plus Langdon and Hunter.

The tactical sub choice could then come from either Grundy (as strange as that sounds), JJ, Harmes or Bowey.

I know @old55 wouldn't have Spargo, so if you left Charlie out, you could play an extra mid or fit Bowey at the back. Equally, if you left Hibbo out, you could fit Bowey at the back. 

Here is the team as above. To me, it's a little short in the front half, but as we saw with the ball movement on KB, this isn't such a problem if we move it quickly.

McVee May Hibbo

Lever Tomlinson Salem

Langdon Oliver Hunter

Petracca Smith ANB

Fritta JVR Kozzy

Gawn Viney Brayshaw

Rivers Sparrow Spargo Chandler

There's also a chance they could pretty much play this team against Hawthorn minus Fritta for the extra mid in JJ.

Thanks for going to the effort to put this all down in writing. Made a few abstract thoughts I had bouncing around upstairs a little clearer! 

[homsar 393]

2 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

He was sub. It’s just the stupid nature of the selections that subs are listed as out 

Yeah but not even named on the extended bench is essentially being dropped, right? He can’t be sub this week. 

[dazzledavey36 48,901]

29 minutes ago, homsar said:

Yeah but not even named on the extended bench is essentially being dropped, right? He can’t be sub this week. 

Correct,  he's been dropped. 

[Jaded No More 58,270]

16 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Correct,  he's been dropped. 

Surely it’s to get some miles into his legs before finals. No way he gets dropped on performance. He was very good when he came on against Carlton. Hawks have a few talls so we need another tall down back this week. I reckon he plays next week on Papley. 

[titan_uranus 22,471]

Very interested to see if Grundy holds his spot. All signs point to him being dropped. If that happens, hard to see him getting back again.

[Willmoy1947 3,790]

Grundy Disposals....................  Above Average in 2023

Grundy Handballs.................... Elite                     in 2023

The rest .....................................Average              in 2023

All Career  Statistics are either Elite or Above Average Look for yourself.

[Binmans PA 26,243]

7 minutes ago, Willmoy1947 said:

Grundy Disposals....................  Above Average in 2023

Grundy Handballs.................... Elite                     in 2023

The rest .....................................Average              in 2023

All Career  Statistics are either Elite or Above Average Look for yourself.

I think a lot of people are going on what we expect to happen, not necessarily what we would do.

And what it may also come down to is Max or Grundy, and we know which way we'll bend on that point.

[rjay 23,927]

2 hours ago, Binmans PA said:

It might partly be a result of the MC picking Tomlinson for very specific roles where he doesn't get exposed and allows the other two to intercept/win their roles, this could equally be wholly unfair to Tomlinson.

Love your work mate...saved me posting the same thought.

Whatever the thinking, looks like he still has a role to play.

[speed demon 689]

Finishing 2nd opens up our preferred run through the finals: home qualifying final against interstate team (likely win), home preliminary final possibly against another interstate team (another likely win) and GF against Collingwood (who’ve shown no signs they can best out game plan from KB). 
 

If we win our next two, there’s a reasonable chance of Brisbane & Port each dropping a game and we better their %.
 

Thus, while I’ve been all for ‘experimenting with personnel’, ‘squad mentality’, ‘horses for courses’ and ‘resting/managing players’, the time has come for best 23. 
 

Gawn can go solo for 5 games in 7 weeks. 
 

Play Tomlinson for the season. Accept his flaws in the interest of supporting his confidence and boosting defensive cohesion. 
 

Play Smith forward and keep him at least in the 23 when Fritsch returns. 

[The Jackson FIX 2,293]

11 hours ago, Roost it far said:

So I’m taking speculation to the bank?

Tommo in is fact. I was then speculating what that meant for Smith etc.

Edited August 17, 2023 by The Jackson FIX

[Roost it far 6,234]

35 minutes ago, The Jackson FIX said:

Tommo in is fact. I was then speculating what that meant for Smith etc.

So we’re banking the speculation that Tomlinson is in and Smith might be

[WERRIDEE 5,218]

58 minutes ago, The Jackson FIX said:

Tommo in is fact. I was then speculating what that meant for Smith etc.

Grundy is playing Goody said so does he replace Jordon?

[Webber 10,133]

7 hours ago, rjay said:

Love your work mate...saved me posting the same thought.

Whatever the thinking, looks like he still has a role to play.

Seconded. 

[chook fowler 18,316]

11 hours ago, poita said:

Spargo, Laurie and Schache - how bad is our depth if they are next in line? Hopefully Tomlinson plays, and Harmes and McDonald can find some form for Casey.

Spargo and Laurie had great games for Casey. Spargo looked good in the midfield and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up there

[WERRIDEE 5,218]

Tomlinson in doesn't make sense. The Hawks only have one key forward.

The bench I'd like to see is:

Grundy, Spargo, Brayshaw, Chandler

SUB: Laurie