PREGAME: Rd 13 vs Collingwood

[Lucifers Hero 37,473]

29 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

You lost me at this.

🤔Either your "thought-bubble" is a brave attempt at denying away the influence that Oliver exudes in a game so as to calm the expectations.......or results.

...or you've gone completely bloody bonkers Jack... 🤷🤷🤷

The main impact of not having Oliver is they will work on Petracca.

But even that will backfire as they need to sacrifice a mid and in doing so will lose even more attacking ability given they are missing their two drivers in Sidebottom and DeGoey.

No one can replace Oliver but I reckon Sparrow and Viney can cover his inside work enough to get us over the line...

Edited June 10, 2023 by Lucifers Hero

[Jaded No More 59,543]

13 hours ago, binman said:

They have played the 2 worst teams in their last two games - and the blues before thst.

Good on em for their three scrappy wins.

They have a better record.

But they are not in MUCH better form than us atm.

If they were they would be much shorter odds than their current quote of 1.74.

They beat West Coast by the exact same margin we did. 
Despite playing poorly for 3/4 of the match. 
They lost Sidebottom in the North game which I think threw them a little and they went into self preservation mode. They were never going to lose and they knew it. 
 

They have however beaten more top 8 sides than we have, including smashing Port and beating Essendon, two sides we lost to. 
Over the last 18 months they’ve been the hardest side to beat consistently. Even on bad days, they find ways to win. They have belief and momentum, much like we had in the back end of 2021. They are not as good as we were in 2021, but they certainly have been very impressive this year, especially with the amount of injuries they’ve had. 
 

While I agree that we can win, they have a psychological edge on us, the wave of support that will drown out ours, and more than likely a few handy inclusions.

Of course if they’ve been under an illness cloud that absolutely evens things out a little. But I don’t want to beat them because they’re unwell. I want to beat them because we outplay them.  

[sue 8,546]

3 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

.....

Of course if they’ve been under an illness cloud that absolutely evens things out a little. But I don’t want to beat them because they’re unwell. I want to beat them because we outplay them.  

Me too. But I'd still be happy to beat them because they are unwell.   There are so many 'luck' factors that determine games, many go against our (or any) team, so I'm happy to take the ones that go our way.

[Whispering_Jack 28,100]

17 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

You lost me at this.

🤔Either your "thought-bubble" is a brave attempt at denying away the influence that Oliver exudes in a game so as to calm the expectations.......or results.

...or you've gone completely bloody bonkers Jack... 🤷🤷🤷

… or it could be a touch of Saturday morning sarcasm Bub.

On the other hand, if we couldn’t beat them when one individual produced those numbers, then there might be another way to skin a magpie. 😉

[BDA 20,825]

The pies have been playing their high-octane game style for about 18 months or so now which is about how long the competition take to figure out how to combat it. They are also showing signs of tiredness (understandable given the demands of playing their style) and although winning games are not as convincing as they were. They remind me a little of us this time last year, winning games unconvincingly. As we know the wheels came off for us. I think the same will happen to the pies.

I’m convinced we’re going to beat them on Monday.

[Lucifers Hero 37,473]

10 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

But I don’t want to beat them because they’re unwell.

Show them no mercy!

[Deebauched 1,219]

Top 2 was never really on the cards even top 4 is a struggle with Coll Port, Lions  virtual lock ins.

Where would you rather finish  3rd  or 5th. 3rd and we likely play Port in SA or 5th and play Essendon or Stkilda at the MCG. Ill take the fifth.

If our players are fit and well managed we can win it from there. Lose a top 4 final and you play 4 to win the flag same as 5-8. 

If Oliver doesnt leave hospital by Sunday as planned then something is going on we're not privy to.

You dont get put on a drip in hospital for almost a week because of a blister. In Asia open sores turn septic real fast even gangreneous . In Asia there are people everywhere  walking around with limbs missing.  Just saying.

 

[Lucifers Hero 37,473]

Just now, Deebauched said:

If Oliver doesnt leave hospital by Sunday as planned then something is going on we're not privy to.

You dont get put on a drip in hospital for almost a week because of a blister. In Asia open sores turn septic real fast even gangreneous . In Asia there are people everywhere  walking around with limbs missing.  Just saying.

If it is cellulitis which is related to staph, it can quickly become septic.  From there it is very dangerous if not brought under control quickly.  Hopefully it has been and the extended hospital stay is for monitoring and being extra cautious.

[DeelightfulPlay 2,306]

18 hours ago, Tarax Club said:

Double take originally MacRobertson’s and uniquely Australian. Gone like Speedo’s to the imperialist multinational entity.

Yes, it was all Old Gold from MacRob 😉

[Diamond_Jim 12,070]

1 minute ago, BDA said:

The pies have been playing their high-octane game style for about 18 months or so now which is about how long the competition take to figure out how to combat it. They are also showing signs of tiredness (understandable given the demands of playing their style) and although winning games are not as convincing as they were. They remind me a little of us this time last year, winning games unconvincingly. As we know the wheels came off for us. I think the same will happen to the pies.

I’m convinced we’re going to beat them on Monday.

Like our game and Port's game (quick corridor) both are easily countered in theory. Similarly each style is easily imitated in theory.

Where the difficulty arises is does the opponent have the skills to do it once, every now and then or often.

Collingwood clearly has our measure on the basis of our traditional game plan. Sure we can beat them but 8 out of 10 times they will win. Port.. I'm not so sure. I think it's closer to 50/50 simply because corridor play as against the Pies angular delivery mode is just that much harder to maintain. Countering the Collingwood and Port styles requires close checking. With 4 umpires it's become more difficult to do this. Sure you can outnumber the opposition at the ball but we all know that such a tactic is a recipe for a loss

[speed demon 736]

Hard to argue Oliver's omission doesn't reduce our chances of winning though obviously those chances have not been reduced to zero.

While we are looking for silver linings, it's likely Chandler will get a full game. In a season of experimenting with our forward line structure, I think this is important.

The viability of playing a low-scoring 'defensive' forward (i.e. Petty and even more so Smith) correlates to the output of our high-scoring small forwards (i.e. Picket and Chandler). If the set-up against Carlton works, Petty can return as the 2nd key defender. That's probably our best whole-team defensive set up which may be appealing to our "defence first" coach.

If Chandler goes cold and Smith (or Petty) are not scoring, Brown becomes a much more attractive option at the expense of F50 defensiveness.  

[JTR 2,683]

J Daicos & Maynard battling flu

Cox suspected Covid

Collingwood trio under illness cloud ahead of King’s Birthday bout

Edit: Sorry, I didn't see this already mentioned a couple of pages back. Nvm

[Roost it far 6,279]

Awesome, if Cox goes out and Daicos and Maynard aren’t 100% we really have no excuse to not win.

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,532]

Why are we still debating if Collingwood are or are not a great side?

Since round 10 last year they’ve gone 24-5 and have won literally every MCG home and away game during that period. Their only MCG blemish was a 6 point week 1 finals loss to Geelong.

They’re a side that is clearly suited to the venue where premierships are won.

Collingwood are the best side in the league to date and it would be one of the biggest failures in the history of their club if they don’t win this year’s flag given the high potentiality of a massive home ground advantage over Port or Brisbane in the GF.

Edited June 10, 2023 by Bring-Back-Powell

[YearOfTheDees 3,123]

Ive been very confident we will win and win easy, but as the day gets closer nervousness starts to creep in. Still think we will win. For years we were accused of using this game as our Grand Final, yet that is what the Pies have done for the last four years. Looking forward to winning two grand finals in the one year. 

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,532]

1 hour ago, Roost it far said:

Awesome, if Cox goes out and Daicos and Maynard aren’t 100% we really have no excuse to not win.

I suspect if Cox test s negative by Monday and is feeling ok, then they’ll play him.

[Redleg 38,201]

1 hour ago, Lucifers Hero said:

The main impact of not having Oliver is they will work on Petracca.

But even that will backfire as they need to sacrifice a mid and in doing so will lose even more attacking ability given they are missing their two drivers in Sidebottom and DeGoey.

No one can replace Oliver but I reckon Sparrow and Viney can cover his inside work enough to get us over the line...

Need to heavily pressure the Daicos’s and Pendles, to stop their soft set up kicks and handballs. 

[loges 6,288]

You've got to wonder how it's suspected covid when you can get a test done in 5 minutes 

[chook fowler 18,465]

13 minutes ago, loges said:

You've got to wonder how it's suspected covid when you can get a test done in 5 minutes 

There are plenty of false negatives with RAT testing- may be they are waiting for PCR  results 

[Demon17 4,693]

2 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

The main impact of not having Oliver is they will work on Petracca.

But even that will backfire as they need to sacrifice a mid and in doing so will lose even more attacking ability given they are missing their two drivers in Sidebottom and DeGoey.

No one can replace Oliver but I reckon Sparrow and Viney can cover his inside work enough to get us over the line...

Huge faith in these two to fly the flag. Not the mosr skilled but give 110% and never shirk an issue. 

[Bombay Airconditioning 5,999]

I’m working off the theory I flew down for rounds 3 and 6 and we won. Flying down tomorrow morning can’t wait.

Another theory is play to our potential, start winning at the stoppages, move the footy direct with low bullet like passes. run in numbers, kick to an open fwd line with players making space for each other and kick straight when having set shots on goal. Our defence gets back to its 2021 early 2022 days when we were hard to score against and our pressure is through the roof.

Edited June 10, 2023 by Bombay Airconditioning

[Binmans PA 26,599]

3 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

The main impact of not having Oliver is they will work on Petracca.

But even that will backfire as they need to sacrifice a mid and in doing so will lose even more attacking ability given they are missing their two drivers in Sidebottom and DeGoey.

No one can replace Oliver but I reckon Sparrow and Viney can cover his inside work enough to get us over the line...

That was my first thought too, but I reckon it's more likely Viney they work on IMO. Good luck on Trac, he's too powerful and big, but Jack is smaller and was key in breaking up stoppages last week. Port targeted Jack and I suspect Collingwood will do the same.

[binman 39,246]

1 hour ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Why are we still debating if Collingwood are or are not a great side?

Since round 10 last year they’ve gone 24-5 and have won literally every MCG home and away game during that period. Their only MCG blemish was a 6 point week 1 finals loss to Geelong.

They’re a side that is clearly suited to the venue where premierships are won.

Collingwood are the best side in the league to date and it would be one of the biggest failures in the history of their club if they don’t win this year’s flag given the high potentiality of a massive home ground advantage over Port or Brisbane in the GF.

A great side?

Maybe it's a semantic thing.

They are a very good team. And def a flag contender. 

But a GREAT side?

Not by my defintion of what a great side is.

A great side does not have their 2022 finals record.

They lost 2 of 3 finals last season for pete's sake - their first finals appearance in years.

They didn't even make the grand final, let alone win it.

We won the flag in 2021, having completely dominated the finals series, playing some of the most dominant finals footy ever.

I don't recall many posters or pundits calling us a great team after winning our first 10 games straight in 2022. In fact, papering over cracks was a more common phrase used on here.

But the pies, coming of a very disappointing 2022 finals series, and on the back of being 11-1, aided by the gift of 7 games at the G, are a GREAT team?

Give me a spell.

Fair dinkum, they are very good, I'm not arguing with that, but how about we wait till they actually achieve something before collectively anointing  them as some juggernaut, generational team. 

The most over rated team I can ever remember.

Edited June 10, 2023 by binman

[Binmans PA 26,599]

3 minutes ago, binman said:

A great side?

Maybe it's a semantic thing.

They are a very good team. And def a flag contender. 

But a GREAT side?

Not by my defintion

A great side doess not have their  finals record in 2022.

They lost 2 of 3 finals for pete's sake - their first finals appearance in years.

They didn't even make the gramd final, let alone win it.

We won the flag in 2021, having completely dominated the finals series, pushing some of rhe most dominant finals footy ever.

We were 10 zip in 2022. I don't recall many posters or pundits calling t us a great team. In fact papering over cracks was a more common phrase used on here.

But the pies, coming of a very disappointing 2022 finals series, and on the back of being 11-1, aided by the gift of 7 games at the G, are a GREAT team.

Give me a spell.

Fair dinkum, they are very good, I'm not arguing with that, bit how about we wait till they actually achieve something before collectively annoying them as some juggernaut, generational team. 

The most over rated team I can remember.

It shows how easily the media narrative seaps into the public consciousness. 

[Gawndy the Great 7,856]

3 hours ago, JTR said:

J Daicos & Maynard battling flu

Cox suspected Covid

Collingwood trio under illness cloud ahead of King’s Birthday bout

Edit: Sorry, I didn't see this already mentioned a couple of pages back. Nvm

Thought this would happen as early as Tuesday when Howe fronted up to 360 having just recovered from COVID but still feeling the effects.

Still if we manage a win it’ll be with asterisks - I’d prefer we play them at full tilt