The Run Home

[Demonland 71,112]

 

[McQueen 17,864]

18 hours ago, Roost it far said:

We’ll win all 4, Buddy’s retirement has switched me from a Swans loss to a Dee’s win

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 4,083]

The AFL.com.au journos have as averaged to finish 3rd

https://www.afl.com.au/news/992455

Edited August 1, 2023 by david_neitz_is_my_dad

[titan_uranus 24,963]

21 hours ago, binman said:

I think we need to win all four as Port will be deserved favs to beat gws at home.

 

In all likelihood I agree.

However, if Richmond is playing for a finals spot in Round 24, that final game Port has could be interesting. 

I think 3-1 gets us 3rd at best, if we can make the percentage up in the wins and catch Brisbane. An away final to Port is not ideal but IMO winnable.

[dl4e 5,851]

I actually differ to a lot of you in that I would see us finish 3rd and play port over there. It would give great pleasure to beat the S.A. filth on their own [censored]. Then we beat whoever in prelim and play the filth in the granny and win by a point.

I need a cold shower.

[binman 42,468]

36 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

In all likelihood I agree.

However, if Richmond is playing for a finals spot in Round 24, that final game Port has could be interesting. 

Agree.

To be honest, i won't be shocked if Port fall in bit of a heap.

A bit depends on their physical conditioning and capacity to get their run back - i have this vibe they have emphasized winning home and away games over being cherry ripe come finals. 

If the Cats beat them this week, they will have lost four in a row.

In that scenario, they will be under massive pressure to beat the Giants next week.

Yes that game is at AO, but if the Giants beat the swans this week, which they are favorite to do, they will be shooting for 10 wins on the trot against Port (and 11 of their last 12 games). They are in red hot form.

What genuine contender loses 5 on end at this point in the season?

They then have to travel to Perth to play Freo, before, as you say finishing the season against the Tigers. 

Won't happen, but imagine how nuts Port fans would go if they lost their last 7 games of the home and away season! 

Worth remembering they still haven't resigned Hinkley. 

[Dee*ceiving 1,662]

16 minutes ago, binman said:

Agree.

To be honest, i won't be shocked if Port fall in bit of a heap.

A bit depends on their physical conditioning and capacity to get their run back - i have this vibe they have emphasized winning home and away games over being cherry ripe come finals. 

If the Cats beat them this week, they will have lost four in a row.

In that scenario, they will be under massive pressure to beat the Giants next week.

Yes that game is at AO, but if the Giants beat the swans this week, which they are favorite to do, they will be shooting for 10 wins on the trot against Port (and 11 of their last 12 games). They are in red hot form.

What genuine contender loses 5 on end at this point in the season?

They then have to travel to Perth to play Freo, before, as you say finishing the season against the Tigers. 

Won't happen, but imagine how nuts Port fans would go if they lost their last 7 games of the home and away season! 

Worth remembering they still haven't resigned Hinkley. 

Such  a wonderful thing to imagine though...!

[Jaded No More 68,835]

30 minutes ago, binman said:

Agree.

To be honest, i won't be shocked if Port fall in bit of a heap.

A bit depends on their physical conditioning and capacity to get their run back - i have this vibe they have emphasized winning home and away games over being cherry ripe come finals. 

 

Worth remembering they still haven't resigned Hinkley. 

It was always my suspicion that Kenny was in self preservation mode this season. I have no idea what triggers he has in his current contract, but my feeling was that he knew he had to finish top 4 to have any chance of getting another contract at Port. 

So they went hard, and they went early. They "managed" a heap of players leading into the Carlton game, and haven't won a game since. It screamed of poor load management, and I don't buy for a second that all 7 omissions were due to injury. 

Their desperately poor handling of Aliir and Jones only further makes me think that they are worried about their position in the top 4. They would have expected to win 2 of their last 3 games. Now they're heading to Geelong, with Geelong in desperate need of a win if they are to play finals. Lose that game and the wheels may well fall off.

 

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

42 minutes ago, binman said:

Agree.

To be honest, i won't be shocked if Port fall in bit of a heap.

A bit depends on their physical conditioning and capacity to get their run back - i have this vibe they have emphasized winning home and away games over being cherry ripe come finals. 

If the Cats beat them this week, they will have lost four in a row.

In that scenario, they will be under massive pressure to beat the Giants next week.

Yes that game is at AO, but if the Giants beat the swans this week, which they are favorite to do, they will be shooting for 10 wins on the trot against Port (and 11 of their last 12 games). They are in red hot form.

What genuine contender loses 5 on end at this point in the season?

They then have to travel to Perth to play Freo, before, as you say finishing the season against the Tigers. 

Won't happen, but imagine how nuts Port fans would go if they lost their last 7 games of the home and away season! 

Worth remembering they still haven't resigned Hinkley. 

This concussion debacle could really derail Port’s season on the back of three straight losses.

Edited August 1, 2023 by Clint Bizkit

[layzie 33,724]

If the showdown is anything to go by Port are starting to run out of steam. Taking on an Adelaide side full of run is just a sign of what is to come in finals and they look like they have led in their legs currently. 

[Adam The God 30,026]

5 hours ago, Clint Bizkit said:

This concussion debacle could really derail Port’s season on the back of three straight losses.

I think the train had already started to come off the track.

[Adam The God 30,026]

Wasn't sure where to put this, so this thread seems as relevant as anywhere.

This article mirrors my own views expressed elsewhere on Demonland.

This is very likely an unsustainable approach for a premier, and note the team who has led most often at 3/4 time since the start of 2022.

Fire or flop? Pies' custom comebacks proving risky business - https://www.afl.com.au/news/992405

[DubDee 25,433]

if we are 3rd before the last round. on track to play Port away in finals 

do we tank the last round?

[dl4e 5,851]

25 minutes ago, DubDee said:

if we are 3rd before the last round. on track to play Port away in finals 

do we tank the last round?

What for ? Go and beat em on their own dunghill.

[rpfc 28,220]

52 minutes ago, A F said:

Wasn't sure where to put this, so this thread seems as relevant as anywhere.

This article mirrors my own views expressed elsewhere on Demonland.

This is very likely an unsustainable approach for a premier, and note the team who has led most often at 3/4 time since the start of 2022.

Fire or flop? Pies' custom comebacks proving risky business - https://www.afl.com.au/news/992405

This is why it is legitimately such an open season; the Pies are a very good team but they have their flaws. Same with the others in the top 4. Our problems were fixable but not inevitably redeemed. The pies play an exciting brand of ‘contest swarm’ to pounce on turnover that when it doesn’t come off - they can get cut apart.

That is core gameplan; they can’t go toe to toe talent wise with us or the Lions. They know this. 

But it is all about putting it together across 3 weekends in September, 4 if your nasty.

[old55 23,310]

I think the Pies talent stacks up pretty well against ours. Let's start in the backline:

Moore = May

Howe = Lever

Murphy = Tomlinson

Maynard = Rivers

Noble = Bowey

Markov < Salem

Quaynor (currently) > McVee

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 6,674]

On 7/31/2023 at 3:10 PM, In Harmes Way said:

Looking at Brisbane and Port remaining games, I reckon we need to win 3 of the last 4 to finish 2nd. I think all three of Port, Brisbane and us will finish level on points, but we should improve our % sufficiently playing Kangaroos and Hawks to take 2nd.

I hope we beat Carlton because I'm less confident with how we play the SCG.

Don't discount the Crows at the Gabba, they play the Gabba historically well and beat the Lions earlier in the year at AO.

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

On 7/29/2023 at 8:55 PM, binman said:

I'm not sure if you are being disingenuous with this post Jimmy - and in particular the question 'surely you've seen enough of us this year and even the last couple of games to suggest two losses from here is likely'?

I say this because if you have read any of my posts in the last two months, or even in this very thread, you would know exactly where I stand on where the dees are at at this stage in the season and relative to the rest of the competition. 

And i know you know my opinions about how Goody and the high performance team structures our season, with the goal of playing our very best footy in September and timing our preparation and run to maximize the chances of doing so. It's not about winning the battles, it's about winning the war and all that. 

Hell, no-one has to believe me on that front - you just have to take the word of our senior coach who has made that exact point at least a dozen times in press conferences this season (ie EVERTHING is about peaking in September and giving the team the best possible chance of winning the flag). 

And you also know that i am very clear we structure our physical preparation for the season with the following pattern - even if it risks losing games we might otherwise win in the middle of the year:

• After a grueling preseason load, we are at our peak for the first third of the the season (as reflected in our results and game style in 2021, 2022 and yet again this year)
• We load in the middle of the season (in the words of Yze - a mini preseason) and suffer a resulting significant drop off in performance (as reflected in our results in 2021, 2022 and yet again this year)
• We close in on optimal fitness and running power in the last handful of home and away rounds with the goal of being at our absolute peak on prelim final day (as occurred in 2021 and didn't occur in 2022 - which of course doesn't mean we didn't  follow the same program - it just means, for whatever reason, it didn't work)

How do i know you know i believe all of that?

Because, IIRC, you were one of several posters who seemed to take inordinate glee in directly calling me out last season when my prediction of us following the same trajectory as 2021 didn't eventuate. 

To be clear, i am not interested, at all, in relitigating the loading argument. Believe what what you want to believe. 

I accept some (most?) posters believe loading may have some impact, but nowhere near to the extent i do (and once again to be crystal clear i don't think loading is the only factor in our in annual drop off, or that we don't have genuine weaknesses - our kicking for instance).

And i accept that some posters don't think it is factor at all, or if it is a factor, such an insignificant one that it is not really worth considering (and annoying for some that is considered).

That's all good. 

But please accept the fact i am 100% certain our training program has a very significant bearing on how our season plays out and our premiership chances - and i am not going to change that belief.

And I'm also prepared to put my neck out and make predictions that buck the safety of echoing the media narrative - unlike some posters who relentlessly bag us and give us little chance of success (not saying you are in this camp). 

But I'll play a straight bat, assume you are not being disingenuous and respond to your post in good faith by reiterating some of the points i have made many times in the last few months (including multiple times in this very thread):

• I think the Pies are a very, very good team - BUT are hugely overrated by the media and by most football fans, many of whom blindly follow the lead of the media rather than think independently (again, not saying you are in this camp) 
• The Pies have achieved nothing, and have significant vulnerabilities that will be, and have been, exposed in the heat of finals, or finals like pressure games -  as clearly evidenced in their record in such games in the last two seasons (their loss against the blues was the perfect example of how these vulnerabilities are exposed in high pressure games) 
• By the by, on the Pies, i just watched the 'The round so far' and Riley Beveridge made an interesting point - yes, the pies record of coming back in last quarters is incredible, winning 12 from 17 when trailing at 3 quarter time in their last 32 games (and i 100% agree ), but 'should a team as good as the Pies be trailing at 3 quarter time in 17 out of 32 games?'
• We are the best team in the AFL - and in my opinion, by some margin - with a formidable record over the last three seasons (unlike the Pies whose claim to fame is winning 32 of their last 42 home and away games) 
• If I was framing a betting market I would have us as favorites to win the flag (the Pies current odds of 2.75 are just ridiculous) 
• We have the best defensive system in the AFL (though the Giants, who have clearly modelled their method on ours, are a very close second) - defence win finals 
• Unlike the Pies, we have a method that is built for finals - as evidenced by the fact that much the same method has won 5 of the last 6 flags (the outlier is the 2018 Eagles flag)
• The above point is evidenced by our recent record against other top 4 sides - like the Pies we are 2-2, but unlike the Pies we have beaten two other top 4 sides (and arguably should have beaten Port) whereas the Pies have only beaten the one top 4 team (Port, who i have never rated as a top 3 team, who they only just beat) and got smashed by the Lions 
• We beat the Pies and were comfortably the better team on the day (such is the rampant Pies myopia, that seems to count for very little; IIRC you gave them the David King pass - every team has an off day i think was your comment)
• We beat the Lions two weeks back, albeit just (i rate the Lions at least the equal of the Pies - well i did before Ashcroft went down, such is his importance to them) 
• We are not quite there yet, but we are very close to being in our optimal shape 
• And consequently, as i predicted on many occasions we would, we are now playing the sort of expansive offensive football we played in the first third third of the season (because we have the run in the legs to implement the method - which is simply not the case in the middle of the year) - something the media, with their complete inability to see each home and away game as part of a bigger picture, have of course failed to point out 
• I think we will be at our peak for our round 22 game against the blues (who, like you i really rate - they play forward half, contest, high pressure finals footy. In that context it is worth noting we dominated them when we comfortably beat them in round 12)
• We are experimenting (with roles, strategies, method etc etc) way more than we did in 2021 an 2002 and won't nail down our method or final line up till the eve of the finals
• I fully expect us to return to the way we played in the first third of the season with a much better balance between defence and offence and a return to controlling tempo when required 
• We will win our final 5 games (i have calculated the odds of doing so as 5-1)
• We will win the flag 

By the by, i rate your footy nous and so I am genuinely shocked that you think the following:

• I'm expecting we lose two though. How can you not?'

Fair enough if that is what you think - we all have our opinions.

But what that particular opinion tells me is we are miles apart in our assessment of where the dees are at.

We'll know who is right in five games time. 

Appreciate the time put in to this post. I get that you rate us but everything  you've written is just what any optimistic supporter would write about their own side. I'll play the opposing side. 

AF posts similarly. Things like noting that Collingwood's home and away record and ability to win games even when behind is something to be concerned about rather than celebrated? And the fact that they choose to play a more aggressive, offensively minded game plan is a negative rather than a positive. And you say they have achieved nothing. But they made a Grand Final in 2018, lost by a kick had a couple of down years and missed out on a Grand Final birth last year away against an unbelievable Sydney by under a kick. Why do you ignore things like this? It works against you because it proves that their game does stack up in finals. They were a kick away from a grand final?

You know, I wonder if it were Melbourne with that kind of win/loss in close games, would you be saying that it's a negative? Or would it be something like, "we have an incredible will to win and this will give us an edge in any game no matter how far behind we are"... 

I think the latter. 

And as far as the last three seasons have gone from round 17 onwards. I'd say that our record suggests to me that it's likely we will lose one and even two games. 

In 2021 we went 5-1-1 from round 17-23. 5 wins with one 9 point win over West Coast and a kick after the siren goal against Geelong which completely changed the fate of our finals series by gifting us a qualifyer against Brisbane instead of Port at the Adelaide oval. We drew to Hawthorn over that period and lost to the dogs. 

In 2022 we went 4-3 in the last seven rounds. 

There are 24 rounds this season so let's go from round 18.

We're 3-0 so far with a one point win against Brisbane and a 4 point win over an decimated Adelaide at our home ground. I think it'd be wise to acknowledge some luck falling our way in those games if you're going to allow luck for Collingwood's close games. We have games against Carlton and Sydney still to come who can both play finals. 

So, with all this in mind, it's clear as to why I think it'd be likely that we lose two from here. I don't think we're playing our most consistent football. I think we're still patchy and having quarters or patches of brilliance as well as periods of really poor football. 

I think we've been lucky against Brisbane and Adelaide in those wins. 

So is it any wonder why one would think two losses from here onwards would be likely? I mean with Cerra now added to Carlton's enormous injury list and Buddy no longer playing his fairwell game against us, it might mean it's likely we lose 1 rather than 2.

All in all, I just think you have a lot more faith in us right now than I do. I think the opportunity is there for us and I think we're capable of winning all our remaining games from here.

But I think our history and formline suggest we won't. 

And I'm not sure how that can be debated? 

Edited August 1, 2023 by JimmyGadson

[Jjrogan 1,416]

1 hour ago, JimmyGadson said:

Appreciate the time put in to this post. I get that you rate us but everything  you've written is just what any optimistic supporter would write about their own side. I'll play the opposing side. 

AF posts similarly. Things like noting that Collingwood's home and away record and ability to win games even when behind is something to be concerned about rather than celebrated? And the fact that they choose to play a more aggressive, offensively minded game plan is a negative rather than a positive. And you say they have achieved nothing. But they made a Grand Final in 2018, lost by a kick had a couple of down years and missed out on a Grand Final birth last year away against an unbelievable Sydney by under a kick. Why do you ignore things like this? It works against you because it proves that their game does stack up in finals. They were a kick away from a grand final?

You know, I wonder if it were Melbourne with that kind of win/loss in close games, would you be saying that it's a negative? Or would it be something like, "we have an incredible will to win and this will give us an edge in any game no matter how far behind we are"... 

I think the latter. 

And as far as the last three seasons have gone from round 17 onwards. I'd say that our record suggests to me that it's likely we will lose one and even two games. 

In 2021 we went 5-1-1 from round 17-23. 5 wins with one 9 point win over West Coast and a kick after the siren goal against Geelong which completely changed the fate of our finals series by gifting us a qualifyer against Brisbane instead of Port at the Adelaide oval. We drew to Hawthorn over that period and lost to the dogs. 

In 2022 we went 4-3 in the last seven rounds. 

There are 24 rounds this season so let's go from round 18.

We're 3-0 so far with a one point win against Brisbane and a 4 point win over an decimated Adelaide at our home ground. I think it'd be wise to acknowledge some luck falling our way in those games if you're going to allow luck for Collingwood's close games. We have games against Carlton and Sydney still to come who can both play finals. 

So, with all this in mind, it's clear as to why I think it'd be likely that we lose two from here. I don't think we're playing our most consistent football. I think we're still patchy and having quarters or patches of brilliance as well as periods of really poor football. 

I think we've been lucky against Brisbane and Adelaide in those wins. 

So is it any wonder why one would think two losses from here onwards would be likely? I mean with Cerra now added to Carlton's enormous injury list and Buddy no longer playing his fairwell game against us, it might mean it's likely we lose 1 rather than 2.

All in all, I just think you have a lot more faith in us right now than I do. I think the opportunity is there for us and I think we're capable of winning all our remaining games from here.

But I think our history and formline suggest we won't. 

And I'm not sure how that can be debated? 

This is an odd conclusion, pardon the pun. The odds, given our draw suggest we win 3 to 3.25 games of 4. To think we win only 2, the burden of evidence is actually against you. 

It's a nice narrative to think that Cerra being injured or Franklin being out actually moves odds. Its a nice fan story but for player like these, it simply doesn't move the needle that much. (Same for Oliver actually). If anything not having Franklin out there as a witches hat improves the Swans odds. 

There are things to work on but we are well placed, it's all going to come down to how we convert our midfield and territory dominance. We almost never get beaten behind the ball. Having said that,  if we dont make a preliminary from here our game plan will need a shake up no question. 

[monoccular 17,408]

On 7/30/2023 at 11:55 AM, binman said:

I'm not sure if you are being disingenuous with this post Jimmy - and in particular the question 'surely you've seen enough of us this year and even the last couple of games to suggest two losses from here is likely'?

I say this because if you have read any of my posts in the last two months, or even in this very thread, you would know exactly where I stand on where the dees are at at this stage in the season and relative to the rest of the competition. 

And i know you know my opinions about how Goody and the high performance team structures our season, with the goal of playing our very best footy in September and timing our preparation and run to maximize the chances of doing so. It's not about winning the battles, it's about winning the war and all that. 

Hell, no-one has to believe me on that front - you just have to take the word of our senior coach who has made that exact point at least a dozen times in press conferences this season (ie EVERTHING is about peaking in September and giving the team the best possible chance of winning the flag). 

And you also know that i am very clear we structure our physical preparation for the season with the following pattern - even if it risks losing games we might otherwise win in the middle of the year:

• After a grueling preseason load, we are at our peak for the first third of the the season (as reflected in our results and game style in 2021, 2022 and yet again this year)
• We load in the middle of the season (in the words of Yze - a mini preseason) and suffer a resulting significant drop off in performance (as reflected in our results in 2021, 2022 and yet again this year)
• We close in on optimal fitness and running power in the last handful of home and away rounds with the goal of being at our absolute peak on prelim final day (as occurred in 2021 and didn't occur in 2022 - which of course doesn't mean we didn't  follow the same program - it just means, for whatever reason, it didn't work)

How do i know you know i believe all of that?

Because, IIRC, you were one of several posters who seemed to take inordinate glee in directly calling me out last season when my prediction of us following the same trajectory as 2021 didn't eventuate. 

To be clear, i am not interested, at all, in relitigating the loading argument. Believe what what you want to believe. 

I accept some (most?) posters believe loading may have some impact, but nowhere near to the extent i do (and once again to be crystal clear i don't think loading is the only factor in our in annual drop off, or that we don't have genuine weaknesses - our kicking for instance).

And i accept that some posters don't think it is factor at all, or if it is a factor, such an insignificant one that it is not really worth considering (and annoying for some that is considered).

That's all good. 

But please accept the fact i am 100% certain our training program has a very significant bearing on how our season plays out and our premiership chances - and i am not going to change that belief.

And I'm also prepared to put my neck out and make predictions that buck the safety of echoing the media narrative - unlike some posters who relentlessly bag us and give us little chance of success (not saying you are in this camp). 

But I'll play a straight bat, assume you are not being disingenuous and respond to your post in good faith by reiterating some of the points i have made many times in the last few months (including multiple times in this very thread):

• I think the Pies are a very, very good team - BUT are hugely overrated by the media and by most football fans, many of whom blindly follow the lead of the media rather than think independently (again, not saying you are in this camp) 
• The Pies have achieved nothing, and have significant vulnerabilities that will be, and have been, exposed in the heat of finals, or finals like pressure games -  as clearly evidenced in their record in such games in the last two seasons (their loss against the blues was the perfect example of how these vulnerabilities are exposed in high pressure games) 
• By the by, on the Pies, i just watched the 'The round so far' and Riley Beveridge made an interesting point - yes, the pies record of coming back in last quarters is incredible, winning 12 from 17 when trailing at 3 quarter time in their last 32 games (and i 100% agree ), but 'should a team as good as the Pies be trailing at 3 quarter time in 17 out of 32 games?'
• We are the best team in the AFL - and in my opinion, by some margin - with a formidable record over the last three seasons (unlike the Pies whose claim to fame is winning 32 of their last 42 home and away games) 
• If I was framing a betting market I would have us as favorites to win the flag (the Pies current odds of 2.75 are just ridiculous) 
• We have the best defensive system in the AFL (though the Giants, who have clearly modelled their method on ours, are a very close second) - defence win finals 
• Unlike the Pies, we have a method that is built for finals - as evidenced by the fact that much the same method has won 5 of the last 6 flags (the outlier is the 2018 Eagles flag)
• The above point is evidenced by our recent record against other top 4 sides - like the Pies we are 2-2, but unlike the Pies we have beaten two other top 4 sides (and arguably should have beaten Port) whereas the Pies have only beaten the one top 4 team (Port, who i have never rated as a top 3 team, who they only just beat) and got smashed by the Lions 
• We beat the Pies and were comfortably the better team on the day (such is the rampant Pies myopia, that seems to count for very little; IIRC you gave them the David King pass - every team has an off day i think was your comment)
• We beat the Lions two weeks back, albeit just (i rate the Lions at least the equal of the Pies - well i did before Ashcroft went down, such is his importance to them) 
• We are not quite there yet, but we are very close to being in our optimal shape 
• And consequently, as i predicted on many occasions we would, we are now playing the sort of expansive offensive football we played in the first third third of the season (because we have the run in the legs to implement the method - which is simply not the case in the middle of the year) - something the media, with their complete inability to see each home and away game as part of a bigger picture, have of course failed to point out 
• I think we will be at our peak for our round 22 game against the blues (who, like you i really rate - they play forward half, contest, high pressure finals footy. In that context it is worth noting we dominated them when we comfortably beat them in round 12)
• We are experimenting (with roles, strategies, method etc etc) way more than we did in 2021 an 2002 and won't nail down our method or final line up till the eve of the finals
• I fully expect us to return to the way we played in the first third of the season with a much better balance between defence and offence and a return to controlling tempo when required 
• We will win our final 5 games (i have calculated the odds of doing so as 5-1)
• We will win the flag 

By the by, i rate your footy nous and so I am genuinely shocked that you think the following:

• I'm expecting we lose two though. How can you not?'

Fair enough if that is what you think - we all have our opinions.

But what that particular opinion tells me is we are miles apart in our assessment of where the dees are at.

We'll know who is right in five games time. 

Thanks binman - fabulous analysis once again.

On 7/31/2023 at 11:20 AM, Wodjathefirst said:

The problem with being an optimist as opposed to a pessimist is that the odds are stacked against you.  An optimist has a one in 18 chance of ‘proving’ that they were right, a pessimist has 17 chances.

Even from a more realistic perspective, come finals it’s a one in eight chance of being right, and even from a top four perspective a one in four chance.

Lesson in all this, always bet against an optimist, the odds are in your favour.

From a me perspective I like to think of myself as a realist who  has a cautious optimistic edge to it.  In 2021 from mid way through the season I made an assessment that all things going well we were ‘serious contenders’. I upped my membership to get a guaranteed GF ticket and I ended up being lucky.

in 2022 all year the most I could feel about the Dees was that at best we were just contenders.  It’s been well documented, things went against us all season. There is always an element of luck (particularly with injuries) in winning GF’s.

This year I am beginning to feel shades of 2021 reappearing. We right now at the very least are contenders. If (when) we put Carlton away in a couple of weeks I will most certainly start believing that we, all things going well are once again serious contenders.

However, the odds will still be in favour of the pessimists. In the meantime I will enjoy being an optimist and enjoy (and stress) watching us play.  It is a lot more fun that way. GO DEES!!

Wodja - who is happier? The pessimist who is always right, or the optimist who is sometimes wrong?

[M_9 2,078]

5 hours ago, DubDee said:

if we are 3rd before the last round. on track to play Port away in finals 

do we tank the last round?

Chris Connolly says ‘hi’.

Edited August 1, 2023 by M_9

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

3 hours ago, Jjrogan said:

This is an odd conclusion, pardon the pun. The odds, given our draw suggest we win 3 to 3.25 games of 4. To think we win only 2, the burden of evidence is actually against you. 

It's a nice narrative to think that Cerra being injured or Franklin being out actually moves odds. Its a nice fan story but for player like these, it simply doesn't move the needle that much. (Same for Oliver actually). If anything not having Franklin out there as a witches hat improves the Swans odds. 

There are things to work on but we are well placed, it's all going to come down to how we convert our midfield and territory dominance. We almost never get beaten behind the ball. Having said that,  if we dont make a preliminary from here our game plan will need a shake up no question. 

Forget the odds. Odds reflect ladder position, home-ground advantage and not formline. 

I've given my evidence and I think it's reasonable to suggest we'll drop one game, maybe two. But as I said, post this weekend's results including another injury to a Carlton mid and also Buddy, it changes the outlook for us. 

Cerra has been in unreal form and he now joins Walsh, Kennedy, McKay and Silvagni who will all be missing against us. 

Are you seriously suggesting Buddy playing his final send off game at the SCG would be favourable compared to him not playing? 

Demonland. Wowsy.

[rjay 24,811]

29 minutes ago, JimmyGadson said:

Forget the odds. Odds reflect ladder position, home-ground advantage and not formline. 

 

That's a very odd statement 'Jimmy'.

I'm not a gambler but even I know that odds reflect many things, form line being the big one.

I mean ladder position is a simple reflection of form line.

[rpfc 28,220]

1 hour ago, JimmyGadson said:

Forget the odds. Odds reflect ladder position, home-ground advantage and not formline. 

I've given my evidence and I think it's reasonable to suggest we'll drop one game, maybe two. But as I said, post this weekend's results including another injury to a Carlton mid and also Buddy, it changes the outlook for us. 

Cerra has been in unreal form and he now joins Walsh, Kennedy, McKay and Silvagni who will all be missing against us. 

Are you seriously suggesting Buddy playing his final send off game at the SCG would be favourable compared to him not playing? 

Demonland. Wowsy.

I don’t think that the general confidence in beating NM, a depleted Carlton, lowly Hawthorn or a Sydney who’s season might be over really deserves a ‘wowsy’… 

Especially, when you are criticising ‘Demonland’ of being optimistic…

And no one deserves a ‘wowsy’

[rpfc 28,220]

Personally I think we will drop one where we get jumped by momentum at some point. Maybe the Blues.