The Run Home

[Bystander 903]

3 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Going to be a very exciting finish for 3rd and 4th spot.

Brisbane, Melbourne, Essendon and the Dogs are right in the hunt, and if St Kilda win tonight then so are they. Can even see Geelong giving it a late shake but have probably lost too many games.

I know we were craving top 2 but we might have ended up playing Collingwood even if we finished top 2, hence the home ground advantage being nullified. Conversely, we’re a good chance of finishing 3rd or 4th and playing Collingwood which would be no different to finishing top 2 and playing Collingwood - if that all makes sense…

It does. And I agree.

And absent a draw, either Brisbane or st Kilda, either Brisbane or st Kilda will lose tonight. 

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

19 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

We were also missing Oliver and Petty for both games. I can’t see any other team who is better than us. If we’re fit come finals we’re the team to beat. The competition knows it and I’m pretty sure you do to

I don't hide from the fact that I'm more of a glass half-empty type of person. Its the way im wired i suppose, but your statement is simply not true. I think we have to let go of how good we were in 2021 (We were bloody fantastic) - we are simply not as good anymore. The stark difference in so many of our players is actually quite sickening and does make me wonder whether we have the cattle and desire to get it done. 

Any team in the 8 at end of R24 has a chance, so im not saying its impossible, but if you had to bet your livelihood on the premiership team today, you are not putting your faith in Melbourne. You'd be certifiable insane if you were to. 

[titan_uranus 25,043]

20 hours ago, Gawndy the Great said:

At the time we played Carlton they were so badly out-of-form and ripe for an absolute smashing and yet we could only conjour a mild victory. 

You also cannot deny that Collingwood were far from fit and had illness sweep through the club - this wasn't a rumour. We were lucky to play them when we did. For me that win has a big asterisk on it. 

I don’t know how many more times I can explain why I consider everything you’ve just said to be rubbish. 

Again, we dominated Carlton everywhere except our goalkicking accuracy. If we had kicked straight and won by 40 would you describe that as a “mild victory”? I doubt it. Carlton didn’t lose any of its losing streak games by more than 34 (including losses to Collingwood and Brisbane) so it’s not realistic to have expected us to have belted them by a huge score and, again, our dominance of the game was enough to warrant a 40 point win. 

I can absolutely deny the Collingwood thing. Their own coach denied it. There’s no evidence to properly show they were unfit. And the allegedly sick players still ran well on the day. 

[Rab D Nesbitt 8,493]

If we continue to squander our front half dominance in games it won't matter who we have left to play in the run home. 

[titan_uranus 25,043]

The flatness of the ladder and the number of matches between rivals means I reckon there's a strong chance 12 wins will be enough for finals.

Probably can write off everyone from Gold Coast down. Fremantle's draw is tough and their percentage is poor so it could well be down to 9 teams (Geelong and up).

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

There are some delusional supporters thinking we'll be fine for top four. 

Gotta love the line that supporters continue to live by which is that 'no one can go with us at our best'. Not realising that you've actually got to play at your best for that to happen.. 

I'd just like to see some consistency in performance. And it's a worry that we haven't seen that in over a season. And this especially so given the amount of talent on our list. 

[titan_uranus 25,043]

12 hours ago, JimmyGadson said:

There are some delusional supporters thinking we'll be fine for top four. 

Gotta love the line that supporters continue to live by which is that 'no one can go with us at our best'. Not realising that you've actually got to play at your best for that to happen.. 

I'd just like to see some consistency in performance. And it's a worry that we haven't seen that in over a season. And this especially so given the amount of talent on our list. 

I posted elsewhere that our top 4 chances could well be determined by the next 4 games (GWS, St Kilda, Brisbane, Adelaide), given the latter three are “8 point games” when it comes to the top 4.

If we struggle through this month we are more likely than not to miss top 4.

[Kent 2,914]

5 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

I posted elsewhere that our top 4 chances could well be determined by the next 4 games (GWS, St Kilda, Brisbane, Adelaide), given the latter three are “8 point games” when it comes to the top 4.

If we struggle through this month we are more likely than not to miss top 4.

No hope now TURA

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,939]

Wouldn’t be the end of the world finishing 5th or 6th. Play a home MCG final week 1 against a good-average opponent as opposed to a Collingwood or Port away in week 1.

Consecutive straight set exits will be pretty devastating if we’re not up to finals footy again.

Edited July 2, 2023 by Bring-Back-Powell

[Demonsone 2,043]

Loses against saints & lions is on the cards,  may struggle to make the 8, will be a huge fall from grace if so, body language of Gawn just isn’t right, hope I’m wrong 

[brendan 3,437]

Saints run home 
R17: Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium
R18: Gold Coast @ Heritage Bank Stadium
R19: North Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium
R20: Hawthorn @ Marvel Stadium
R21: Carlton @ Marvel Stadium
R22: Richmond @ Marvel Stadium
R23: Geelong @ Marvel Stadium
R24: Brisbane @ Gabba

If they beat us this week can’t see how they miss that 4th spot 

[titan_uranus 25,043]

57 minutes ago, brendan said:

Saints run home 
R17: Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium
R18: Gold Coast @ Heritage Bank Stadium
R19: North Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium
R20: Hawthorn @ Marvel Stadium
R21: Carlton @ Marvel Stadium
R22: Richmond @ Marvel Stadium
R23: Geelong @ Marvel Stadium
R24: Brisbane @ Gabba

If they beat us this week can’t see how they miss that 4th spot 

They fell over the line today against one of the worst sides in the history of the sport (they lost Tim Kelly before the bounce, making them even worse).

They are not a good side. That fixture on paper gives them the chance but they are not a good side.

We cannot allow ourselves to think that it's OK to lose to St Kilda next week. It isn't. If we are serious about our season, next week is a must win (today was too, so we're 0-1 on that count).

[Fanatique Demon 2,656]

52 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

They are not a good side.

St Kilda, that is.

As opposed to us on recent form?

[Demonsone 2,043]

We will be making up numbers & go out in straight sets or not even make the 8, current trend mirrors last year fade out & getting worse, likely to lose our next 2 games. The issues around a flawed game plan are real, our small fwds are non existent, and our best tall is a 20yo @ Casey ! Pickett has lost form badly & Gawn looks like he’s not enjoying himself , something is miss more than game plan I’d say culturally atm

Edited July 2, 2023 by Demonsone

[Little Goffy 14,639]

I'm getting a strange echo of the vibe of July 2018. "We were so good, so recently, so where is it now?"

 In 2023 there is a longer lead-in of expectations but a similar feeling that we are stumbling.

But... wait... this is also how July felt in 2021 with the winter slump of two wins, one embarrassing draw and three losses.

Anyway, with the loss to GWS we are now clearly out of contention for top two, and will be playing a classic '8 point' game next week to keep hold of our spot in the the top 4.  Brisbane the next week is an important test.

Two weeks from now;

Best case; win games against 5th and 3rd, be at least a game clear inside the top 4, and revitalise our season with a relatively easy minimum-travel draw to finish the H&A season.

Worst case; lose both and we're probably clinging onto 8th spot by percentage only, and even then thanks only to the Bombers playing the Crows then the Cats.

[titan_uranus 25,043]

1 hour ago, Little Goffy said:

I'm getting a strange echo of the vibe of July 2018. "We were so good, so recently, so where is it now?"

 In 2023 there is a longer lead-in of expectations but a similar feeling that we are stumbling.

But... wait... this is also how July felt in 2021 with the winter slump of two wins, one embarrassing draw and three losses.

Anyway, with the loss to GWS we are now clearly out of contention for top two, and will be playing a classic '8 point' game next week to keep hold of our spot in the the top 4.  Brisbane the next week is an important test.

Two weeks from now;

Best case; win games against 5th and 3rd, be at least a game clear inside the top 4, and revitalise our season with a relatively easy minimum-travel draw to finish the H&A season.

Worst case; lose both and we're probably clinging onto 8th spot by percentage only, and even then thanks only to the Bombers playing the Crows then the Cats.

The 2021 slump spanned 7 weeks: Rounds 13-19. We lost to the Dogs (runner up), GWS (won a final) and Collingwood (second-bottom), drew with Hawthorn (14th) and beat Essendon (finalist) and Port (2nd in the H&A and made a prelim).

The 2023 slump currently spans 7 weeks: Rounds 10-16. We have lost to Port Adelaide (2nd), Fremantle (not in the top 8), Geelong (not in the top 8) and GWS (not in the top 8), whilst beating Collingwood (1st) and Carlton (not in the top 8).

W-L wise the only difference is the draw in 2021 as opposed to an extra loss in 2023. But the opponents in the 2021 slump were, on the whole, far stronger than this season's (unless two of Fremantle, Geelong and GWS make the finals - not out of the question but not likely), which gives me more cause for concern.

[Nascent 9,283]

[praha 11,240]

On 7/2/2023 at 1:05 PM, titan_uranus said:

I posted elsewhere that our top 4 chances could well be determined by the next 4 games (GWS, St Kilda, Brisbane, Adelaide), given the latter three are “8 point games” when it comes to the top 4.

If we struggle through this month we are more likely than not to miss top 4.

Given who we play, if we struggle in those games we're a chance to miss top 8 completely. On current form, losing the next 3 is a genuine possibility. And if most results go the way they should, we could actually drop out of the top 8 by end of round 19. If i were a betting man, I'd bet we're in 6th-7th by then.

I don't think people can clearly see how incompetent the gameplan is atm. It's not AFL standard. 

[praha 11,240]

5 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

The 2021 slump spanned 7 weeks: Rounds 13-19. We lost to the Dogs (runner up), GWS (won a final) and Collingwood (second-bottom), drew with Hawthorn (14th) and beat Essendon (finalist) and Port (2nd in the H&A and made a prelim).

The 2023 slump currently spans 7 weeks: Rounds 10-16. We have lost to Port Adelaide (2nd), Fremantle (not in the top 8), Geelong (not in the top 8) and GWS (not in the top 8), whilst beating Collingwood (1st) and Carlton (not in the top 8).

W-L wise the only difference is the draw in 2021 as opposed to an extra loss in 2023. But the opponents in the 2021 slump were, on the whole, far stronger than this season's (unless two of Fremantle, Geelong and GWS make the finals - not out of the question but not likely), which gives me more cause for concern.

I think as a supporter group we need to stop talking about 2021 in comparison to form. Completely. Our slump atm isn't 7 weeks. It's been 30 rounds, with a couple byes and some nice wins chucked in. And it's a slump IF the consensus is we should be better. I'd argue at this point that Goodwin and co are trying one last time with the 2021 crew. It's clearly not happening. We're not slumping. We're just not that good anymore and we need to keep developing and diversifying our best 22. This means holding the likes of ANB, Pickett, Melksham, Brown, Langdon, Harmes to account and looking to add genuine depth and development into their positions.

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

4 hours ago, praha said:

I think as a supporter group we need to stop talking about 2021 in comparison to form. Completely. Our slump atm isn't 7 weeks. It's been 30 rounds, with a couple byes and some nice wins chucked in. And it's a slump IF the consensus is we should be better. I'd argue at this point that Goodwin and co are trying one last time with the 2021 crew. It's clearly not happening. We're not slumping. We're just not that good anymore and we need to keep developing and diversifying our best 22. This means holding the likes of ANB, Pickett, Melksham, Brown, Langdon, Harmes to account and looking to add genuine depth and development into their positions.

I agree re 30 rounds or so. I can count a handful of games where we have played extremely well in the last 2 years.

The fact is you can’t be out of form for nearly 2 years. Every team has a good day now and then - but it’s the way we play week in week out that tells the story. I think we are talented in the way the game used to be played. The newer game doesn’t suit us as we don’t have the speed nor skill. Either we reinvent a newer version of our old game plan or we restock  our list and get with the program.

 

Either way I think our chances for 2023 are on a knifes edge atm. We’d need to be turn things around and win 4-5 straight to resurrect a level of belief. 

[Rednblueriseing 825]

5 hours ago, Gawndy the Great said:

I agree re 30 rounds or so. I can count a handful of games where we have played extremely well in the last 2 years.

The fact is you can’t be out of form for nearly 2 years. Every team has a good day now and then - but it’s the way we play week in week out that tells the story. I think we are talented in the way the game used to be played. The newer game doesn’t suit us as we don’t have the speed nor skill. Either we reinvent a newer version of our old game plan or we restock  our list and get with the program.

 

Either way I think our chances for 2023 are on a knifes edge atm. We’d need to be turn things around and win 4-5 straight to resurrect a level of belief. 

I think all.we need is a tweak to the game plan, all we really need to fix is forward entries and get our forwards to spread out 

[Kent 2,914]

10 hours ago, praha said:

Given who we play, if we struggle in those games we're a chance to miss top 8 completely. On current form, losing the next 3 is a genuine possibility. And if most results go the way they should, we could actually drop out of the top 8 by end of round 19. If i were a betting man, I'd bet we're in 6th-7th by then.

I don't think people can clearly see how incompetent the gameplan is atm. It's not AFL standard. 

Obviously Goodwin cannot

Some on here rose coloured glasses

The team is in serious decline and the coach keeps doing the same thing over and over

The team is playing without spark and Goodwins system such as it is has ground the attacking flair out of them in my view

[poita 3,902]

More chance of us missing the eight than finishing top four now. What a waste of two years out of what should be the best part of the careers of guys like Petracca and Oliver.

The big question for Goodwin is whether he merely follows Beveridge into a gradual decline for the next few years, or sinks like a stone as Simpson has done out west.

[layzie 33,991]

Think we need to run the table or at very least for 3-1 in the next month to have any shot at top 4. Slightly tall order but can be done.

We must change things though, hoping out of crisis comes some kind of revolution. 

[DubDee 26,117]

On 7/2/2023 at 9:23 PM, brendan said:

Saints run home 
R17: Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium
R18: Gold Coast @ Heritage Bank Stadium
R19: North Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium
R20: Hawthorn @ Marvel Stadium
R21: Carlton @ Marvel Stadium
R22: Richmond @ Marvel Stadium
R23: Geelong @ Marvel Stadium
R24: Brisbane @ Gabba

If they beat us this week can’t see how they miss that 4th spot 

Saints just lost to Hawks and tigers.

they win 3 of those max