Jump to content

Trading draft picks

Lucifers Hero
Lucifers Hero
in Melbourne Demons

Featured Replies

Posted

We trade out our future first round pick during the player trade period.  It has generally served us well.

But is it so wise to trade that early now with draft night trading?

According to reports, in recent years we have tried to trade up on draft night for Zac Butters, Max Holmes and maybe others.  Because our 1st future pick was gone earlier, in the player trade period we couldn't add any future picks to our draft night offer to climb the order to get them.

While we have mastered trading picks and moving up the order generally I'm not sure we have kept an eye on having flexibility draft night.

So two questions:

  • Should we continue to trade out our future 1st?
  • Should we keep it and our powder dry for draft night?
  • Quote
    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
     

    It should only be traded if the pick we're getting in return is seen to guarantee us one of the key forward options

  • Quote
    • Like 1
    • Author

    I raise this as it seems to me we need to add some pointy end talent with good skills and footy IQ and fill list gaps.

    It may take a few drafts as Sydney now holds our 2022 first pick #14.

    Drafting reports are starting to say that clubs will trade out their 2022 picks for 2023 as it has more top end talent. 

    The Jackson trade may help if we get and keep some good draft picks.

    I would like to see us keep our 2023 first pick unless we get a deal we can't refuse.

  • Quote
    • Like 2
     

    We have always got back into the 1st round so this isn’t a ‘selling our future’ problem.

    Also, we are in ‘win this decade’ mode so yeah it’s fine.

  • Quote
    • Like 4
    • Author
    2 minutes ago, rpfc said:

    We have always got back into the 1st round so this isn’t a ‘selling our future’ problem.

    Also, we are in ‘win this decade’ mode so yeah it’s fine.

    Agreed we do get back into the first round but in the last few years our picks have been in the high teens which blow out furthre depending on F/S and Academy players so we miss out on the cream.  Not that I think draft picks are the be all end all.  Just that the odds of a very good player are much better higher up.

    Just not sure that high first round picks are the best value for giving up future picks.

  • Quote
    • Like 1

    Just rumour, but what I've hear is that we'll be going a bit younger for the next 2 years. Partly to have more young talent coming through, partly to fit in around the contracts we've been getting done and need to get done in the next year or two.

    Would be pretty surprised if we traded away our picks for players. Might be some pick splits etc that become part of that, but outside of maybe 1 or 2 key targets I don't think we'll be huge players in the trade period in terms of bringing in players.

     

  • Quote
    • Like 8
    • Thanks 1
    • Love 1
    9 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

    Just rumour, but what I've hear is that we'll be going a bit younger for the next 2 years. Partly to have more young talent coming through, partly to fit in around the contracts we've been getting done and need to get done in the next year or two.

    Would be pretty surprised if we traded away our picks for players. Might be some pick splits etc that become part of that, but outside of maybe 1 or 2 key targets I don't think we'll be huge players in the trade period in terms of bringing in players.

     

    That makes sense in terms of our list demo and recent scaled contracts.

  • Quote
    • Like 1
    13 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

    Agreed we do get back into the first round but in the last few years our picks have been in the high teens which blow out furthre depending on F/S and Academy players so we miss out on the cream.  Not that I think draft picks are the be all end all.  Just that the odds of a very good player are much better higher up.

    Just not sure that high first round picks are the best value for giving up future picks.

    When it comes to academy stuff, the Mac Andrew thing really burns my waffles.

  • Quote
    • Like 3
    • Angry 1
     

    Our window is open now.

    If we can get players who can get us a flag while we are a genuine contender for the next few years, then we should go for it. Especially if they are a forward.

  • Quote

    Trading future firsts has been great for us but there are risks involved that need to be considered. 

    The benefit is that we get a player in a year earlier and are able to give them 12 months development in our system.

    The risk is that we may tumble down the ladder and give up a high draft pick. 

    The risk was lower this year due to our playing list being relatively well placed to finish higher up the ladder this year.

    We are now at the point that we will need to play some more developing players, both for nessissity and due to the players at Casey banging the door down.

    I'm not sure the risk is worth it this time unless we can get a top 10 pick.

  • Quote
    • Like 1

    52 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

    We trade out our future first round pick during the player trade period.  It has generally served us well.

    But is it so wise to trade that early now with draft night trading?

    According to reports, in recent years we have tried to trade up on draft night for Zac Butters, Max Holmes and maybe others.  Because our 1st future pick was gone earlier, in the player trade period we couldn't add any future picks to our draft night offer to climb the order to get them.

    While we have mastered trading picks and moving up the order generally I'm not sure we have kept an eye on having flexibility draft night.

    So two questions:

    • Should we continue to trade out our future 1st?
    • Should we keep it and our powder dry for draft night?

    I want 2 keep our first pick for 23 as next year is supposed to be a bumper crop

  • Quote
    • Like 2

    When we did the Weideman and Pickett deals we bet on ourselves winning our way from lowly ladder positions to mid table to justify those deals. 
     

    Now we’re at the top we have to win a lot just to break even. 

    We more than did that with Bowey/Laurie. Unfortunately the groundhog is stuck in second gear but value wise that was worth it.

    This year we’ve now ended up sending our first pick to Sydney via Adelaide for JVR. Pick 19 in for a pick that probably ends up at 14 or 15. Not a huge deal, and easy to say it’s worth it for a much needed key forward with a year of development. 4 pick slide is a pretty good interest rate in this economy.

    But without the 10 game win streak to start the year we might’ve finished outside or barely in the 8. And giving away a pick around 10 for pick 19 would’ve been nasty. Most years a gem falls around the 10 mark.

    You don’t want to be giving up a pick on the edges of the top 10 that gets to pick right after all the bad teams pick, to then pick after all the good clubs have had a go in the late teens.

  • Quote
    • Like 5
    19 minutes ago, cantstandyasam said:

    I want 2 keep our first pick for 23 as next year is supposed to be a bumper crop

    That gets said every year, and honestly I think it’s only been right once in the last 20 years which was the ‘18 draft.

  • Quote
    • Like 2

    I don’t know how we will get them but badly need a tall key forward/ruck and strong mobile forward to support JVR and Fritsch going forward. Cost us a final last night.

  • Quote
    • Like 2

    Like everything, depends on what value is offered.  IF we could find a strong CHF or a strong forward ruck (not saying we can) then of course that is our need right now and we should take it.  🤞

  • Quote
    • Like 2

    1 hour ago, DeeSpencer said:

    That gets said every year, and honestly I think it’s only been right once in the last 20 years which was the ‘18 draft.

    Next year is bumper DS. And just to let you know, so is '24. 25 and 26. 

  • Quote
    • Thanks 1
    • Haha 2
    8 minutes ago, Queanbeyan Demon said:

    Next year is bumper DS. And just to let you know, so is '24. 25 and 26. 

    In September next year ‘24 will be the draft, then in September ‘24 everyone will want ‘25. It’s always the way. 

  • Quote
    • Haha 2

    Where do we end up finishing on the ladder after finals? 5th or 6th?

    The JVR trade will end up being Pick 17 (19 after academy father sons) for Pick 13 or 14. 

    Caveat: There are more little details to this trade but essentially it is the above.

  • Quote
    • Like 1

    If Luke Jackson is to leave, I’d very much like the club to try and figure out a way to get Cadman.

    Aside from Richmond poaching Lynch, most quality KPF’s come via the draft. We have JVR, but we need at least a 2-pronged attack. 

    This year has shown that even with ruck dominance, it doesn’t necessarily lead to quality clearances (not for us anyway). Sure Petty could be an answer up forward, but he is a quality KPD, with lots of improvement still left in him. No point robbing Peter to pay Paul.

    JVR and Cadman will take a few years, but you could build a forward line around that for a decade (providing development goes well - we’ve been half decent at that lately). Good midfielders are a dime a dozen, backlines only need to nullify the contest, rucks appear to be becoming less integral. You’ve got to be able to kick winning scores, and we were pathetic at doing so for the majority of the back half of the year.

  • Quote
    • Like 2

    Our Draft hand this year atm. 32, 41, 50, 63, 68

    1st Round  - Nill

    2nd Round - 32 (Melb) 584 points. 

    3rd Round - 41 (Adelaide) 412 points , 50 (Melb) 273 points

    4th Round - 63 (Saints) 112 points , 68 (Melb) 59 points

    Combined Points - 1,440

     

  • Quote
    • Thanks 1

    My gut says that if Jackson goes we will try to go to draft night with one top-10 pick and also be in a position to live-trade to secure a specific player we like.

    Most of the live trading is pre-agreed thresholds, like 'If the player you want is still available at our pick 12, but the player we were hoping for isn't and our other options might still be available at a later pick, we are willing to trade our 12 for your 17 and 32' and a thousand other variations.

    It is 4d chess on a timer and will one day be a job for AI. Heh, I can see it now; every club plugs in their priorities and the AI just calculates all the best trades so that everyone gets the most possible value out of the draft.

  • Quote
    • Like 1
    2 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

    Heh, I can see it now; every club plugs in their priorities and the AI just calculates all the best trades so that everyone gets the most possible value out of the draft.

    Would be interesting to see what the outcome would be if every club listed the same top 3 draft prospects.

  • Quote
    • Haha 1

    I think we will have a much better idea what we want to do with it after the grand final. If Kynan Brown has a day out in the U17 game, our first rounder might not be useful for us. 

  • Quote
    • Like 1
     

    Apparently 2023 Draft is going to be a ripper,  and the draft watchers are saying alot of clubs will try a trade out of this year and into next year,  so maybe not.  But if we get a first rounder this year for Jackson then maybe we trade that.

  • Quote
    • Like 1
    42 minutes ago, Travy14 said:

    Apparently 2023 Draft is going to be a ripper,  

    They say that next years draft is meant to be fantastic every year

  • Quote
    • Like 1

    Join the conversation

    You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

    Guest
    Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
    Reply to this topic...
    Go to topic listing

    Featured Content

    • NON-MFC: Round 10

      The Sir Doug Nicholls Round kicks off in Darwin with a Top 4 clash between the Suns and the Hawks. On Friday night the Swans will be seeking to rebound from a challenging start to the season, while the Blues have the Top 8 in their sights after their sluggish start. Saturdays matches kick off with a blockbuster between the Collingwood and Kuwarna with the Magpies looking to maintain their strong form and the Crows aiming to make a statement on the road. The Power face a difficult task to revive their season against a resilient Cats side looking to make amends for their narrow loss last week. The Giants aim to reinforce their top-eight status, while the Dockers will be looking to break the travel hoodoo. The sole Saturday game is a critical matchup for both teams, as the Bulldogs strive to cemet their spot in the top six and the Bombers desperately want break into the 8. Sundays start with a bottom 3 clash between the Tigers and Kangaroos with both teams wanting to avoid the being in wooden spoon contention. The Round concludes with the Eagles still searching for their first win of the season, while the Saints look to keep their finals hopes alive with a crucial away victory. Who are you tipping and what are the best results for the Demons?

        • Thanks
      • 87 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • PREVIEW: Brisbane

      And just like that, we’re Narrm again. Even though the annual AFL Sir Doug Nicholls Round which commemorates the contributions of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander culture to our game has been a welcome addition to our calendar for ten years, more lately it has been a portent of tough times ahead for we beleaguered Narrm supporters. Ever since the club broke through for its historic 2021 premiership, this has become a troubling time of the year for the club. For example, it all began when Melbourne rebranded itself as Narrm across the two rounds of the Sir Doug Nicholls Round to become the first club to adopt an Indigenous club name especially for the occasion. It won its first outing under the brand against lowly North Melbourne to go to 10 wins and no losses but not without a struggle or a major injury to  star winger Ed Langdon who broke his ribs and missed several weeks. In the following week, still as Narrm, the team’s 17 game winning streak came to an end at the hands of the Dockers. That came along with more injuries, a plague that remained with them for the remainder of the season until, beset by injuries, the Dees were eliminated from the finals in straight sets. It was even worse last year, when Narrm inexplicably lowered its colours in Perth to the Waalit Marawar Eagles. Oh, the shame of it all! At least this year, if there is a corner to turn around, it has to be in the direction of something better. To that end, I produced a special pre-game chant in the local Narrm language - “nam mi:wi winnamun katjil prolin ambi ngamar thamelin amb” which roughly translated is “every heart beats true for the red and the blue.” >y belief is that if all of the Narrm faithful recite it long enough, then it might prove to be the only way to beat the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba on Sunday. The Lions are coming off a disappointing draw at Marvel Stadium against a North Melbourne team that lacks the ability and know how to win games (except when playing Melbourne). Brisbane are, however, a different kettle of fish at home and have very few positional weaknesses. They are a midfield powerhouse, strong in defence and have plenty of forward options, particularly their small and medium sized players, to kick a winning score this week after the sting of last week’s below par performance.

        • Clap
        • Thanks
        • Like
      • 9 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • REPORT: Hawthorn

      There was a time during the current Melbourne cycle that goes back to before the premiership when the club was the toughest to beat in the fourth quarter. The Demons were not only hard to beat at any time but it was virtually impossible to get the better them when scores were close at three quarter time. It was only three or four years ago but they were fit, strong and resilient in body and mind. Sadly, those days are over. This has been the case since the club fell off its pedestal about 12 months ago after it beat Geelong and then lost to Carlton. In both instances, Melbourne put together strong, stirring final quarters, one that resulted in victory, the other, in defeat. Since then, the drop off has been dramatic to the point where it can neither pull off victory in close matches, nor can it even go down in defeat  gallantly.

        • Clap
        • Thanks
        • Like
      • 1 reply
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • CASEY: Footscray

      At twenty-four minutes into the third term of the game between the Casey Demons and Footscray VFL at Whitten Oval, the visitors were coasting. They were winning all over the ground, had the ascendancy in the ruck battles and held a 26 point lead on a day perfect for football. What could go wrong? Everything. The Bulldogs moved into overdrive in the last five minutes of the term and booted three straight goals to reduce the margin to a highly retrievable eight points at the last break. Bouyed by that effort, their confidence was on a high level during the interval and they ran all over the despondent Demons and kicked another five goals to lead by a comfortable margin of four goals deep into the final term before Paddy Cross kicked a couple of too late goals for a despondent Casey. A testament to their lack of pressure in the latter stages of the game was the fact that Footscray’s last ten scoring shots were nine goals and one rushed behind. Things might have been different for the Demons who went into the game after last week’s bye with 12 AFL listed players. Blake Howes was held over for the AFL game but two others, Jack Billings and Taj Woewodin (not officially listed as injured) were also missing and they could have been handy at the end. Another mystery of the current VFL system.

        • Thanks
      • 0 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • PREGAME: Brisbane

      The Demons head back out on the road in Round 10 when they travel to Queensland to take on the reigning Premiers and the top of the table Lions who look very formidable. Can the Dees cause a massive upset? Who comes in and who goes out?

        • Thanks
        • Like
      • 270 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • PODCAST: Hawthorn

      The Demonland Podcast will air LIVE on Monday, 12th May @ 8:00pm. Join Binman, George & I as we dissect the Demons loss to the Hawks. Your questions and comments are a huge part of our podcast so please post anything you want to ask or say below and we'll give you a shout out on the show. If you would like to leave us a voicemail please call 03 9016 3666 and don't worry no body answers so you don't have to talk to a human.

        • Clap
        • Thanks
        • Like
      • 53 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland
    View All