The Run Home

[rjay 24,615]

5 minutes ago, BDA said:

Baffles me why people think Geelong are a contender. They’ve tweaked the game plan and are playing well granted but they are a year older again. Watch them wilt come finals time. I really hope we get to play them and knock them out of finals again.

 

1 hour ago, Demon17 said:

He has - on current form and potential to improve -  Geelong No. 1 PF seed,  daylight, then Dees. Followed by Pies and swans.

Too early to call Geelong then daylight...this is the same King that called us at our best 5 goals better than any other team a week or 2 back.

He was wrong then as he is wrong now.

I think they are a definite contender, the kid at full back gives them a lot more flexibility as does a fit Cameron.

...but the ageing list still has a lot of footy to play and there's a bit of water to flow under the bridge yet...

[BDA 22,289]

12 minutes ago, rjay said:

the kid at full back gives them a lot more flexibility as does a fit Cameron

Stengle has been a good pick up as well

Danger, Selwood, Smith. Great players but too many miles on the clock. I just can't see them holding up under finals intensity

[Demon17 5,084]

38 minutes ago, rjay said:

 

Too early to call Geelong then daylight...this is the same King that called us at our best 5 goals better than any other team a week or 2 back.

He was wrong then as he is wrong now.

I think they are a definite contender, the kid at full back gives them a lot more flexibility as does a fit Cameron.

...but the ageing list still has a lot of footy to play and there's a bit of water to flow under the bridge yet...

His was referring to current form now. A fair comment.

But meaningless come finals time given multiple pf failures by the cats. 

Should they fail again this year their response will be fascinating 

[rjay 24,615]

35 minutes ago, BDA said:

Stengle has been a good pick up as well

Danger, Selwood, Smith. Great players but too many miles on the clock. I just can't see them holding up under finals intensity

 

14 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

His was referring to current form now. A fair comment.

But meaningless come finals time given multiple pf failures by the cats. 

Should they fail again this year their response will be fascinating 

I guess all will be obvious at around 6pm on GF day, if not before.

[The heart beats true 17,815]

The Saints are done. Ryder is their best player and is now out for 6 weeks.

They just can’t get it together.

[rjay 24,615]

17 minutes ago, The heart beats true said:

The Saints are done. Ryder is their best player and is now out for 6 weeks.

They just can’t get it together.

Their current list is very vanilla...I think they need to get back to the drawing board, this list is not taking them to a flag any time soon.

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 6,584]

27 minutes ago, The heart beats true said:

The Saints are done. Ryder is their best player and is now out for 6 weeks.

They just can’t get it together.

They were gone a month ago.

[Lucifers Hero 38,985]

The top 7 are set and only the order to be decided.

8th spot will be fought out between Tigers and Bulldogs.  Really a 50/50 call.

Both capable of doing damage if they make it but unless they settle quickly whoever makes it will just be making up the numbers.

[John Demonic 5,525]

4 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I'm probably more confident beating Freo in Perth then I am with the doggies this week for some unknown reason.

The doggies pose a different challenge than our last 2 meetings, with Bruce & Naughton back together for the first time since his injury. Easy to forget he was leading the Coleman last year at one stage 

It might be too far gone for them, and we can bury them with a great performance, whoever they have in their team. But I still have them at their best, a harder challenge than Freo, so I concur.

 

Edited July 18, 2022 by John Demonic

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 6,584]

1 hour ago, rjay said:

 

Too early to call Geelong then daylight...this is the same King that called us at our best 5 goals better than any other team a week or 2 back.

He was wrong then as he is wrong now.

I think they are a definite contender, the kid at full back gives them a lot more flexibility as does a fit Cameron.

...but the ageing list still has a lot of footy to play and there's a bit of water to flow under the bridge yet...

Fair play to Geelong they are defying the laws of ageing during the home and away season very well. They might have shown there hand very early maybe....

Old Booger Hawkings looking very old the last two weeks and have a very soft draw coming home not a good way to hit the finals.

I personally think they will fold once the intensity hits its hottest peak in September. In the utter desperation over pre season Snott has changed the way he looks at Footballing Philosophy to combat our great Club.

We are getting free looks at everyone elses 1 wood in terms of best footy. An open book of answers to study and master before our big exams in September.

[The Jackson FIX 2,704]

On 7/15/2022 at 2:35 PM, loges said:

Mick Malthouse ?

Dermie written all over this one. 

On 7/15/2022 at 2:35 PM, loges said:

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,217]

5 minutes ago, John Demonic said:

The doggies pose a different challenge than our last 2 meetings, with Bruce & Naughton back together for the first time since his injury. 

Bruce still finding his touch, I hope they play Ugle as he’ll be cocky after winning last week.

[John Demonic 5,525]

15 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Bruce still finding his touch, I hope they play Ugle as he’ll be cocky after winning last week.

True. Naughton off covid, Bruce off injury, and both without a year to sync up. Good that we get them now than in a few weeks then.

 

EDIT: One thing I remember this time last year from the First Crack show,  is that they made sure Hannan got onto May, so that Bruce or Naughton could isolate Lever. They also had English floating forward to cause havoc. Interesting to see if they try this again.

Edited July 18, 2022 by John Demonic

[Dr. Gonzo 23,723]

4 hours ago, BDA said:

Baffles me why people think Geelong are a contender. They’ve tweaked the game plan and are playing well granted but they are a year older again. Watch them wilt come finals time. I really hope we get to play them and knock them out of finals again.

I think the premier comes from Geelong, us or Freo. I haven't seen any other teams play well enough consistently to take the cup. GF will be played off between 2 of these 3 sides.

[Great Northern Summer 701]

7 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I think the premier comes from Geelong, us or Freo. I haven't seen any other teams play well enough consistently to take the cup. GF will be played off between 2 of these 3 sides.

I personally think Freo shot themselves in the foot on Saturday night. I think they'll lose their next two and most likely, won't make the top 4, which makes it hard to win from there. Swans have a favourable draw and Lions should make it, with us and Geelong...

Edited July 18, 2022 by Glorious Day

[Gawndy the Great 9,009]

2 hours ago, YesitwasaWin4theAges said:

Fair play to Geelong they are defying the laws of ageing during the home and away season very well. They might have shown there hand very early maybe....

Old Booger Hawkings looking very old the last two weeks and have a very soft draw coming home not a good way to hit the finals.

I personally think they will fold once the intensity hits its hottest peak in September. In the utter desperation over pre season Snott has changed the way he looks at Footballing Philosophy to combat our great Club.

We are getting free looks at everyone elses 1 wood in terms of best footy. An open book of answers to study and master before our big exams in September.

I reckon the Cats have peaked a bit too early. They’ll still make a PF though. 

[DubDee 24,440]

9 minutes ago, CYB said:

I reckon the Cats have peaked a bit too early. They’ll still make a PF though. 

I really hope they don’t get the sniffles again

poor things

[titan_uranus 24,631]

8 hours ago, old55 said:

Or us. We need to go 3-2 minimum to lock in top 4. We need the beat the Dogs and they will be primed for us.

I actually think 2-3 is the minimum to lock in top 4. That gets us to 15 wins.

Right now our percentage is 12% better than Sydney, 20% better than Carlton and 26% better than Collingwood. If we can hold our percentage over those three sides, then they would have to get to 16 to pass us.

That means Carlton and Sydney have to win all 5 of their remaining games, whilst Collingwood would have to go 4-1 in a run which includes a suddenly in-form Essendon, Port, us, Sydney and Carlton.

Assuming Carlton and Sydney drop 1 game from here and Collingwood drops 2 (which is made much easier if we beat them), then there's a good chance we only need 2 more wins to make top 4. 

7 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I think we can go as bad as 3-2 (16-6) and still finish second-fourth due to our great percentage. 

It's a pity that out of Brisbane, Fremantle, Sydney and Collingwood, only Sydney and Collingwood play each other. You would've loved more of these sides taking wins away from each other.

I can see a scenario where all of those sides (and Melbourne) finish 16-6 and then percentage deciding top 2, top 4 and elimination sudden death.

We need to have a couple of big percentage boosting wins on the run home and avoid any blow out losses if/when we do lose.

I agree, if we go 3-2 there's still a reasonable chance we finish 2nd. If we go 4-1, that prospect significantly improves, particularly if the 4 wins include Fremantle and Brisbane.

I wouldn't say we need big percentage boosting wins. What we need is to ensure that our losses aren't dramatic. Keep the losses in check and "moderate" wins like yesterday's will keep our percentage close enough to where it is right now.

[Lucifers Hero 38,985]

13 hours ago, John Demonic said:

The doggies pose a different challenge than our last 2 meetings, with Bruce & Naughton back together for the first time since his injury. Easy to forget he was leading the Coleman last year at one stage 

It might be too far gone for them, and we can bury them with a great performance, whoever they have in their team. But I still have them at their best, a harder challenge than Freo, so I concur.

In round one we didn't have Lever, Petty or Hibberd and Salem went off in the first quarter.  That should more than offset the return of Bruce, even if Lever doesn't play this week.

iirc TMc went back after Salem went off to shore up defence so we were down a tall up fwd. 

They still have no all ground defence and their backman don't hold up when challenged. And their pressure isn't so great.

Undoubtedly Bevo will play games with his line-ups but at the end of the day they will lose.

Edited July 18, 2022 by Lucifers Hero

[old55 22,843]

10 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

I actually think 2-3 is the minimum to lock in top 4. That gets us to 15 wins.

That means Carlton and Sydney have to win all 5 of their remaining games, .

I think Sydney will go 5-0, they'll start favourites in each match and just beat Freo in Perth.

[rpfc 28,052]

2 minutes ago, old55 said:

I think Sydney will go 5-0, they'll start favourites in each match and just beat Freo in Perth.

Perhaps. But their best and worst are polar opposites. 

Lost to Essendon recently too.

[old55 22,843]

1 minute ago, rpfc said:

Perhaps. But their best and worst are polar opposites. 

Lost to Essendon recently too.

True that. They have been very inconsistent.  Essendon aren't as horrible as they were earlier and playing some good footy now, I think they will beat Collingwood this week.

[titan_uranus 24,631]

12 minutes ago, old55 said:

I think Sydney will go 5-0, they'll start favourites in each match and just beat Freo in Perth.

They lost to Essendon two weeks ago.

They have the easiest draw of probably any side in the comp but the odds of getting through it undefeated are low. Particularly if Collingwood and St Kilda are playing for top 4/8 in their last two games.

Implicit in my post though was that Brisbane and Fremantle also either get to 15 but pass us on percentage, or get to 16. Fremantle is 12% behind us (worse percentage than Sydney right now), so again assuming we don't shed too much percentage in our losses from here there's a fair chance they need to get to 16, which requires them to go 4-1 from Richmond (Marvel), us, the Dogs (Marvel), West Coast and GWS (away). They can do it, but they're in patchy form and could easily go 1-2 from their next three.

So for us to miss top 4 on 15-7, three of the following five things all have to happen:

1. Brisbane goes 3-2 but makes up the 6.6% gap on us, or goes 4-1 or better
2. Fremantle goes 3-2 but makes up the 12% gap on us, or goes 4-1 or better
3. Collingwood goes 3-2 but makes up the 26.5% gap on us, or goes 4-1 or better
4. Sydney goes 4-1 but makes up the 12% gap on us, or goes 5-0
5. Carlton goes 4-1 but makes up the 19% gap on us, or goes 5-0

Even if Sydney does pass us, two of the other sides have to do it too, and I'd rate Carlton and Collingwood's chances low. Which means both Fremantle and Brisbane have to do it.

So I still think 2-3 is the minimum mark to get us into the top 4. 3-2 makes it pretty much certain.

Having said all that, conceding those last three goals to Port really disappointed me. The extra percentage buffer over Fremantle and Sydney would have been very helpful.

Edited July 18, 2022 by titan_uranus

[rpfc 28,052]

Love all the permutations and possibilities but we are a really good team a game clear in the top 2 with 5 rounds to go. We should be aiming for a home QF.

[layzie 32,939]

You could say this about any team around that mark but gee if Sydney knocked off Essendon then top 4 would be a major possibility. Just proves this isn't going to be easy for anyone.