At our first loss, the winning team will be hailed as a hero. Meanwhile I load up as Dees odds for the flag briefly go out to $3-1

Imo Carlton are the biggest threat but we have a clear edge in the ruck. Aint going to get away with throwing Silvagni in there. Max will gain 30 metres from every stoppage.  Furthermore, around the ground their rucks can't keep up, nullifying other marking threats they have.  Having said that if we got an injury or two, they definitely have the weapons to pinch a win. 

Interesting to compare Carlton 2022 to Melbourne 2018. After round 10 in 2018 we were 3rd at 7-3 with a % of 136.6 (the highest % in the competition). Compared to Carlton this year with 8-2 but only 114%.

Guess who was a game clear on top at round 10 in 2018? Eagles at 9-1 and 135.8%…

We also ended up with the highest total score of any team that year by more than 150 compared to the next best in Richmond, and had the second highest percentage at the end of the year, but we saw how that panned out in the prelim…

Rd 10 Ladder 2018 WC 10 36 135.8 RI 10 32 133.4 ME 10 28 136.6 SY 10 28 116.1 NM 10 24 120.5 GE 10 24 118.0 AD 10 24 109.7 CW 10 24 109.6 PA 9 24 108.1 HW 10 20 104.8 GW 10 18 97.8 ES 10 16 93.8 FR 10 16 85.4 WB 10 16 77.9 GC 9 12 73.6 SK 10 6 70.1 BL 10 4 81.7 CA 10 4 63.2

 

30 minutes ago, Deetective Sgt. Taggert said:

Interesting to compare Carlton 2022 to Melbourne 2018. After round 10 in 2018 we were 3rd at 7-3 with a % of 136.6 (the highest % in the competition). Compared to Carlton this year with 8-2 but only 114%.

Guess who was a game clear on top at round 10 in 2018? Eagles at 9-1 and 135.8%…

We also ended up with the highest total score of any team that year by more than 150 compared to the next best in Richmond, and had the second highest percentage at the end of the year, but we saw how that panned out in the prelim…

Rd 10 Ladder 2018 WC 10 36 135.8 RI 10 32 133.4 ME 10 28 136.6 SY 10 28 116.1 NM 10 24 120.5 GE 10 24 118.0 AD 10 24 109.7 CW 10 24 109.6 PA 9 24 108.1 HW 10 20 104.8 GW 10 18 97.8 ES 10 16 93.8 FR 10 16 85.4 WB 10 16 77.9 GC 9 12 73.6 SK 10 6 70.1 BL 10 4 81.7 CA 10 4 63.2

 

In 2018 by Round 10 we had beaten 2 Top 8 (at Rd 10) teams, lost to 2 Top 8 teams, beaten 5 Bottom 10 teams and lost to 1 Bottom 10 team.

In 2022 by Round 10 Carlton has beaten 2 Top 8 teams and lost to 1 Top 8 team, beaten 6 Bottom 10 teams and lost to 1 Bottom 10 team.

Carlton have the mids and key forwards to worry us. But they can't run out games which is where we excel.

If we are within 7-8 goals of them at halftime I think we beat them.

1 hour ago, Action Jackson said:

Carlton are playing the best they can play. They are extremely reliant on Curnow and McKay, so if they don't kick a bag then they are less likely to win. We rely on no one player, that's the difference.

Plus their defensive work is pretty average. I would actually say when up and going the Lions forwards are the most dangerous. But as we have seen good defence often beats a good offence.

This is the important thing, they'll have to consistently outmark May, Petty, Lever, Gawn to be able to kick a winning score with their one wood. but i look at our side and outside weitering, i don't see much capacity to stop our forwards. guys like Docherty and Williams would have to play much more accountable on guys like Fritsch and Kozzie and that limits their ability to really run and create 

plus they might be able to guard Brown or McDonald but the other will surely bob up, and the resting ruckman down there becomes a huge worry for them

Carlton have the midfield to beat us and a good forward line. I tend to agree with Cornes. However they cannot play 4 quarters of footy and they have a weaker defence. 

Carlton's midfield destroyed us in the AAMI practice match at Marvel. We lost the possession count by 70, clearances by a staggering 23 despite having our entire starting midfield available and they out tackled us by 14 despite having more of the ball.

Most here will write it off as just a practice match, but it was a match nonetheless.

And a lot of people are bagging Carlton for giving up big leads. They've had big half time leads on 5 occasions (including our praccy match) which the opposition have reeled in. And guess how many times they've lost in those scenarios? Zero, which shows that they've got the maturity and game awareness to hold on when the pressure is well and truly on. A good sign for them in September IMO.

I wouldn't be sleeping on Richmond either. Particularly given they might be fielding a stronger side than they did on Anzac eve, should we meet in a final (in fairness we were also missing Viney and Lever).

Carlton and Richmond concern me more than playing Brisbane or Freo in an MCG final as they'll unfortunately have more or the crowd support at the game.

 

 

I’ll be in Melbourne for this game so we’ll win….

I like the fact we don’t play them until Rd 22. 
Get a good look at them at the pointy end of the H&A prior to finals. 
Handy prep. 

Too reliant on Crypts.

We're head and shoulders the best team in it. Everyone acknowledges that

Carlton are a threat but their strengths are negated by our strength, defensive organisation. 

We'll make the prelim, minimum, this year. Then it will come down to what happens on the day. Injuries, the goal kicking yips or a Mason cox type performance could do us in. I'm pretty sure it won't be superior game plan beats us

Will Carlton, Brisbane or Freo be able to make us play differently?

Goody has been saying in his presser after games that we are playing the same way each week. A team will have to make us play differently to beat us. 

 

 

1 hour ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Carlton's midfield destroyed us in the AAMI practice match at Marvel. We lost the possession count by 70, clearances by a staggering 23 despite having our entire starting midfield available and they out tackled us by 14 despite having more of the ball.

Most here will write it off as just a practice match, but it was a match nonetheless.

It was a practice match...not a match.

Last season the dogs flogged us in a practice match.

How did that stand up?

5 minutes ago, rjay said:

It was a practice match...not a match.

Last season the dogs flogged us in a practice match.

How did that stand up?

If Carlton's confidence is based on practice match, they are doomed.

We were missing most of our stelar defensive line and you could see our midfield playing at 70%.

32 minutes ago, bluey said:

Too reliant on Crypts.

Sounds like a grave situation.

Lets put that pre-season game in perspective!  

They benefited form a heap of 50m penalties courtesy of the new 'dissent' and 'holding up play' rules (...what has happened to the latter...)  Remember we were the guinea pigs for those new rules.

iirc they scored at least 5 goals directly from frees/50 m penalties. And they won by only 5 points.

Sure they had Charlie Curnow, Jacob Weitering and Sam Walsh out but we had Steven May, Harrison Petty, Michael Hibberd, Trent Rivers, Christian Salem out ie 5 of our Premiership defenders.

I think they will make a formidable opponent but that game isn't a reliable reference point.

Edited May 24, 20222 yr by Lucifers Hero

1 hour ago, Demonstone said:

Sounds like a grave situation.

Where was the warning "dad joke alert" ?

it's gotta be the blues.....after all they have won 8 premierships this year already 🤣

I have more and more time for Buckley. On SEN with Gerard, after the latter waxes lyrical about how good the Blues are, Bucks goes:

'We are talking bout the undefeated premiers, Melbourne, right?

1 hour ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Lets put that pre-season game in perspective!  

They benefited form a heap of 50m penalties courtesy of the new 'dissent' and 'holding up play' rules (...what has happened to the latter...)  Remember we were the guinea pigs for those new rules.

iirc they scored at least 5 goals directly from frees/50 m penalties. And they won by only 5 points.

Sure they had Charlie Curnow, Jacob Weitering and Sam Walsh out but we had Steven May, Harrison Petty, Michael Hibberd, Trent Rivers, Christian Salem out ie 5 of our Premiership defenders.

I think they will make a formidable opponent but that game isn't a reliable reference point.

In addition, because they didn't make finals in 2021, Carlton had had a longer prep time to ready for this match.

Oh well, I hope Goody and co study the Carlton AAMI loss a little more than posters here who are willing to chuck it in the bin and pretend it never happened.

We were utterly destroyed in the midfield that night.

 

Classic peaking in May syndrome. 
We haven’t even got to 70% of our true output. 
Bring it on. 

43 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Oh well, I hope Goody and co study the Carlton AAMI loss a little more than posters here who are willing to chuck it in the bin and pretend it never happened.

We were utterly destroyed in the midfield that night.

 

See also pre season 2021 versus Dogs. 
We got “destroyed” then closed a 50 point game to lose by under a goal without most of our backline playing half arsed footy. 
 

Pre season games only matter to clubs that have something to prove. 

34 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Oh well, I hope Goody and co study the Carlton AAMI loss a little more than posters here who are willing to chuck it in the bin and pretend it never happened.

We were utterly destroyed in the midfield that night.

 

I take Carlton very seriously, i have for a couple of years now. You could see what they were building.

I don't take the practice game as seriously as for one we were coming off the shorter pre season being the premiers.

By the way...the umpire descent 50's (adjusted after our game) probably ended up costing us the win in the end...not bad for a team that was smashed in the midfield.

Don't be too concerned as I'm pretty sure Goody and the forward scouts are keeping a good eye on all opposition including Carlton...