On 24/05/2022 at 05:49, Jaded No More said:

See also pre season 2021 versus Dogs. 
We got “destroyed” then closed a 50 point game to lose by under a goal without most of our backline playing half arsed footy. 
 

Pre season games only matter to clubs that have something to prove. 

I have always said that the results of pre-season games are meaningful only if you win.

We will beat them after the siren after trailing by 8 goals to secure the minor premiership.

  On 24/05/2022 at 02:41, rjay said:

It was a practice match...not a match.

Last season the dogs flogged us in a practice match.

How did that stand up?

Also worth noting it was a practice match where 4 or 5 of our premiership backline was missing, the players have mentioned repeatedly that it was a wake up call for them, i suspect if we were playing Carlton this saturday it'd be similar to the Saints game and we'd really set ourselves to make a statement.

Personnel wise, the Blues appear to be the best matched team. Many said this at the start of the season. No surprise when they have McKay, Curnow, and Weitering plus a Jackson-like talent in de Koning. The midfield also has some similarities with great clearance players like Cripps, outside mid in Walsh and defensive midfielders like Hewitt. Even their small forwards have copied ours with their pressure game.

Melbourne perhaps still has the advantage in my opinion of going harder for longer and our supreme fitness should not be undersold.

There are pros and cons on each side. An advantage in the ruck can be huge in finals. As can a quarterback like Salem that can also defend is a point of difference. There's also the X factor of Kozzie and Fritta.

There's three months to wait until they play and injuries will play a role. But I can't wait to see how it pans out.

Edited May 24, 20222 yr by dee-tox

Oliver, Petracca and Viney are better than anyone - including Carlton mids.

  On 24/05/2022 at 06:58, dee-tox said:

Personnel wise, the Blues appear to be the best matched team. Many said this at the start of the season. No surprise when they have McKay, Curnow, and Weitering plus a Jackson-like talent in de Koning. The midfield also has some similarities with great clearance players like Cripps, outside mid in Walsh and defensive midfielders like Hewitt. Even their small forwards have copied ours with their pressure game.

Melbourne perhaps still has the advantage in my opinion of going harder for longer and our supreme fitness should not be undersold.

There are pros and cons on each side. An advantage in the ruck can be huge in finals. As can a quarterback like Salem that can also defend is a point of difference. There's also the X factor of Kozzie and Fritta.

There's three months to wait until they play and injuries will play a role. But I can't wait to see how it pans out.

Leaky defence (Weitering aside).

Great at getting the contested loose ball (a close second to us).

Solid discipline around the drop of the ball, where the smalls stay front & square waiting to pounce (especially Walsh....let him push forward without any close checking at your peril).  They also maintain this discipline further up the field and hold one out the back (where possible) to swoop.

Obviously Cripps is in fab form and can damage both through the middle and loves to push forward to try and score or share the pill with those around.

Love to get the jump on their opponents and try and blow the game/lead out early making it very difficult to peg back.  While still leaky in defence if you get the ball in quick enough they're slowly learning the two way stuff & getting better at defending (+ slow play).

The forward line with McKay & Curnow in is a beauty.

Voss has them up & about with belief at an all time high (since 1995).

Plenty of games & water under the bridge to go so who knows where both teams will be at (form wise) by the time we get to round 22 but....

we should never underestimate an opponent, especially one in this sort of form with belief so high.

Edited May 24, 20222 yr by Demon Dynasty

  On 24/05/2022 at 08:09, Demon Dynasty said:

Leaky defence (Weitering aside).

Great at getting the contested loose ball (a close second to us).

Solid discipline around the drop of the ball, where the smalls stay front & square waiting to pounce (especially Walsh....let him push forward without any close checking at your peril).  They also maintain this discipline further up the field and hold one out the back (where possible) to swoop.

Obviously Cripps is in fab form and can damage both through the middle and loves to push forward to try and score or share the pill with those around.

Love to get the jump on their opponents and try and blow the game/lead out early making it very difficult to peg back.  While still leaky in defence if you get the ball in quick enough they're slowly learning the two way stuff & getting better at defending (+ slow play).

The forward line with McKay & Curnow in is a beauty.

Voss has them up & about with belief at an all time high (since 1995).

Plenty of games & water under the bridge to go so who knows where both teams will be at (form wise) by the time we get to round 22 but....

we should never underestimate an opponent, especially one in this sort of form with belief so high.

The higher they are... The harder they'll fall 😏

 

Just checking . . . parallel universes and all that . . .

Are we talking about the side that looses 20 percent of its games and trails us by 37 percent? 

I could handle losing to Brisbane or Freo. Heck even St Kilda as much as I hate them. Even on Grand Final day.

But if we lose any final to Carlton, I might just move countries.

The Blues are a reasonably good team on offence but they don't play total team defence like we do.  In fact, they are nowhere near our levels in that area

On top of that we have a stellar defence against their quite-good forward line and our midfield shades theirs from an overall perspective

Our forward line against their defence is more of a line-ball match-up but they'd do well to keep 2 of Fritsch, Brown, T-Mac and a resting Gawn or Jackson quiet.  And our small forwards continue to apply forward line defensive pressure

Match it all up and we win by 6 goals with the big difference being our overall defensive pressure.  They just can't match us in that area

  On 24/05/2022 at 12:59, Macca said:

Match it all up and we win by 6 goals with the big difference being our overall defensive pressure.  They just can't match us in that area

That’s a pretty good assessment. Based on the average midfield performance (i50s) and the average defence (goals and scores conceded per i50), the average result would be 14.13 to 10.11.  If we kicked straighter it would average 6 goals!

Further to that, Watson11

We also employ the forward press on many occasions when the opposition are trying to clear the ball out of their defence.  A smother or misdirected kick often results and therefore, a turnover in our favour

Carlton don't really play that style ... their method is to attack hard to try and score and that method will win a lot of games against average to mediocre opposition (they do possess good skills)

But we play September type pressure footy ... the Blues look like they are at least a year away from contending in a real sense.  But only if they become a more complete team

Edited May 24, 20222 yr by Macca

Can't remember which of our players said it (sometime in the last month or so) but it was words to the effect of ...

"The coaches have told us that if at least 16 players play their roles as well as they can, we can't lose the game"

I found that to be a fascinating approach and I also found the statement to ring true

In many of our games in the last year and a half we've had at least a dozen players who have played very well ... often reaching the magic 16 figure.  And why 16? 

Can anyone verify what was actually said and who said it? 

 

Collingwood will test us and probably be our first loss

Any body got odds?

 

  On 24/05/2022 at 00:09, Action Jackson said:

Oh and just noticed that for this amazing attacking side, they have actually scored 6 less points than us for the year but let in an extra 233.

  On 24/05/2022 at 00:19, sisso said:

Our attack doesn't get enough credit we're averaging just under 94 points a game and have actually had more scoring shots this season than Brisbane who average 106. Inaccuracy is the only thing keeping us from averaging over 100 as well, we certainly have plenty of opportunities to score.

These two posts should be stuck to the top of this thread and rolled out every time someone says "but Carlton are so attacking".

Carlton's best is good enough to beat us. Their one-wood is contested ball and if they dominate in the middle, and get good supply into Curnow and McKay, they are hard to stop.

But if they don't dominated contested ball, they fall back to the pack. Like the Dogs, they can't win if their midfield isn't dominant. It doesn't matter how good Curnow and McKay are, Carlton's wins come off the back of supreme midfield dominance, and in the games where they've built a lead and then had it eroded, each one has turned on them ceding dominance in the middle.

Carlton are yet to play a team with a strong defence at the time they played.

We should get a read on this vs Coll this week who have Moore, Howe, Maynard, Noble and Quaynor.  Their intercepts and rebounds will test the Blues' midfield's ability to run both ways and tire them out in the process.  The Blues defence will then be under pressure.  I don't think they stack up too well and Weitering can't do it all.

Given the Blues game pattern the trick to beating them is stop their scoring in the first half.  Run over them in the second half.  They will fold!

Will be good to watch the game tactics.  Voss vs McCrae.

Edited May 24, 20222 yr by Lucifers Hero

  On 24/05/2022 at 13:29, Macca said:

Can't remember which of our players said it (sometime in the last month or so) but it was words to the effect of ...

"The coaches have told us that if at least 16 players play their roles as well as they can, we can't lose the game"

I found that to be a fascinating approach and I also found the statement to ring true

In many of our games in the last year and a half we've had at least a dozen players who have played very well ... often reaching the magic 16 figure.  And why 16? 

Can anyone verify what was actually said and who said it? 

 

I'd be astounded if any coach ever said this. It effectively provides six players with an "excuse". It's also sheer hubris to say "we can't lose the game" in any context. 

  On 25/05/2022 at 00:24, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

I'd be astounded if any coach ever said this. It effectively provides six players with an "excuse". It's also sheer hubris to say "we can't lose the game" in any context. 

As I said, I was paraphrasing but it was words to that effect.  Might have been 'Do that and we will go a long way towards winning the game'

Fairly sure it was one of our midfielders who said it ... and it was almost a throwaway line thus I've only recalled it now

At the start of the season it was the Bulldogs that we had to worry about, after rd 7 it was the Lions and Freo, now it’s Carlton. A lot can happen before we play them. I honestly believe we can go undefeated throughout the season.

  On 25/05/2022 at 00:59, Bombay Airconditioning said:

At the start of the season it was the Bulldogs that we had to worry about, after rd 7 it was the Lions and Freo, now it’s Carlton. A lot can happen before we play them. I honestly believe we can go undefeated throughout the season.

This may sound silly but I hope we don't.

Its quite a 'monkey on the back'.  Would rather the said monkey was deposed before the finals.

Last year we lost a couple either side of the bye.  Maybe a couple of inconsequential losses after the bye this year...?

Edited May 25, 20222 yr by Lucifers Hero

Still firmly of the view that a fully fit Brisbane is our biggest competitor

Will help if we don't give away a kilometre of 50s against them next time

  On 24/05/2022 at 03:30, Lucifers Hero said:

Lets put that pre-season game in perspective!  

They benefited form a heap of 50m penalties courtesy of the new 'dissent' and 'holding up play' rules (...what has happened to the latter...)  Remember we were the guinea pigs for those new rules.

iirc they scored at least 5 goals directly from frees/50 m penalties. And they won by only 5 points.

Sure they had Charlie Curnow, Jacob Weitering and Sam Walsh out but we had Steven May, Harrison Petty, Michael Hibberd, Trent Rivers, Christian Salem out ie 5 of our Premiership defenders.

I think they will make a formidable opponent but that game isn't a reliable reference point.

Just on this point. If anyone heard Alex Neale-Bullen on SEN recently, they asked him how he felt about the (then) 16-0 run that Melbourne was on. His reply was awesome, he said, we don't look at it that way, from the team's perspective we lost to Carlton in the preseason, so we are still just 9-0.
when we get to the end of the season, it will be really interesting to see where both clubs are at.... if they are still top 3 and we are on top, it will be a cracker of a game!

  On 24/05/2022 at 22:38, Lucifers Hero said:

Carlton are yet to play a team with a strong defence at the time they played.

We should get a read on this vs Coll this week who have Moore, Howe, Maynard, Noble and Quaynor.  Their intercepts and rebounds will test the Blues' midfield's ability to run both ways and tire them out in the process.  The Blues defence will then be under pressure.  I don't think they stack up too well and Weitering can't do it all.

Given the Blues game pattern the trick to beating them is stop their scoring in the first half.  Run over them in the second half.  They will fold!

Will be good to watch the game tactics.  Voss vs McCrae.

Yes they did - Fremantle, in Round 6. At the time Fremantle were flying. And they gave Carlton a right old touch up, with Carlton only capable of scoring 9.8.62, their equal lowest score of the year and lowest number of scoring shots.

Point taken though, they haven't beaten anyone with a particularly good defence.

  On 25/05/2022 at 03:01, Diamond_Jim said:

Still firmly of the view that a fully fit Brisbane is our biggest competitor

I would agree, but i also think if we play our best, Brisbane won't be good enough to beat us.