GRAND FINAL: Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

9 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Ross Lyon.

I pay no attention to a guy that paid hush money for a sexual harassment incident that swept under the carpet. Up there with Wayne Carey as the biggest oxygen thief out there.

I did laugh at this but..

 

Clearly forgot that Yze and Richo were upstairs and are probably better than Goody on seeing the game unfold.

[Garbo 1,559]

Haven’t felt it all week but now I can’t wait, we are almost there only 2 more sleeps to go. The only risk now is they let me down again circa 2000 and 1988, this time feels different however.

Edited September 23, 2021 by Garbo

[Fork 'em 7,052]

[Chook 15,023]

It's the year 2000. A new era. I am an 11 year old boy in Melbourne town, just 3 years down from Brisbane. A rugby state. But footy or rugby I wasn't in a round ball state of mind. I didn't "get it".

And so, there I was, a nominal Melbourne supporter ushered to Grand Final Day early in the morning to (now I understand) get some bloody tickets.

Melbourne. I'm 11. It's a Grand Final. Nothing special, I think to myself. My Grandpa Jim has seen this before, and his calmness soothes me.

And so I watched. And we lost. I didn't mind.
I didn't really "get" the 2000 Grand Final. We lost. I didn't really care.

I care now.

I didn't understand how hard that one was to reach.

It was just the 2nd in 43 years I now am able to calculate in the fulness of time.

Now I get it.

Fast forward from 2000. It's now mid-late 2004. Nathan Brown is killing it for the dees. I like this bloke. I like the Demons. My Grandfather's team. I might watch them on free-to-air and see how we go. 

We win.

This is it my friends. A life-long passion is born.

In 2004 - I listened to an entire Elimination Final on the radio. My god I could not do that now.

It's 2005. Jeff White gets his head caved in. I remember nothing but pain, but I see this live. I hear it and feel it live.

It's 2006. Nathan Jones debuts. In the finals, a kindly Saints fan gifts me a ticket and I watch the game from the wing live. We beat St Kilda, and Chook McLean stamps himself on my psyche in a way I'll never forget. No matter what happens afterward. 

It's 2007. Demonland seems like a nice place to vent after a pretty terrible year. I might sign up.

2008, 9, 10, 11 pass as years tend to do, and we seem not to want to win any longer.
My grandpa, who took me to that 2000 grand final and instilled that love for Melbourne, passes away.

And still the years press on: 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17.

Pain, pain pain. And I see it all in person.

I cannot imagine the pain of those born in the 60s, or 70s, or 80, but I can fathom it.

And then we get to experience 2018. What a joyous year it was, but ultimately one built on sand, and we know that now. But it was fun, and I see it to its bitter conclusion in Perth, in person. I had officially become a nuffy.

And still time rolls on, and I roll with it, now completely pulled in, never to escape.

2019, 2020. Pain again, and I think this might be the lot of Melbourne forever, and me too (of course, because why should I be happy?)

And then 2021comes.

Just a joyous year in spite of everything non-football related that we all know about. I could talk forever about why this year means what it means from a football sense, but let me say this at least:

Here is a chance for Melbourne to come full circle now.

I think back to that kid who went to a grand final just a couple of years after coming down from Brisbane, and how little he "got" it.

I get it now. I want it. I need it.

Go dees.

I'll have a beer for you Grandpa Jim, like I said I would, way back in 2011 when it looked bad for you and the club both.

Melbourne recovered, and I'm Melbourne. I'm Melbourne, and I'm Melbourne through and through.

Edited September 23, 2021 by Chook

[Lampers 563]

I don’t post here that often, but thought I’d drop my analysis in from a BigFooty post.

I’m generally a pessimist with MFCSS, however I’m strangely confident.

If Melbourne and the Bulldogs bring their standard game, Melbourne will be too strong. 

This is why Melbourne are ~80% chance to win in my eyes:

- Melbourne are the stronger contested team, having bettered the Bulldogs throughout the year and in the two contests between these teams during H&A.

- The round 19 game was a draw on “expected scores” meaning non-standard accuracy on the night was a major factor.

- Round 19, in the wet, was statistically Melbourne’s worst disposal efficiency game for the year, whereas Bulldgos went at their season norm which indicates a more significant opportunity for Melbourne to improve. Gawn, Petracca and Pickett all had their least efficient games for the year that night, which is highly unlikely to repeat.

- Round 19 saw the Bulldogs kick almost half their score (37 points) from forward stoppages, which is many factors higher than their average score from this method and therefore highly unlikely to repeat.

- Round 19 saw a statistically anamoulously high gap (41% margin) between each team’s normal aggregate “free kicks for” which is unlikely to repeat.

- Josh Bruce scored almost a quarter of the Bulldogs’ goals in the previous four hours of game time between these teams. His replacement is Josh Schache who won’t demand the same respect defensively.

- Stef Martin didn’t play in the two H&A games and is called out as a big difference maker, but I don’t think he can go with Gawn at all. Martin played 16 games across 2020 to 2021. Discounting one game where he got injured and subbed out, he could only better 77% time on ground twice so he doesn’t have the fitness to handle Gawn. Across that period if you make a Frankenstein’s monster of what would be Martin’s statistically best game (15 disposals, 30 hit outs, 4 tackles, 2 contested marks, 6 clearances, 1 goal) it’s probably still weaker than Gawn’s average game* across that period (19, 35, 3, 2.2, 4.5, 0.5). Add onto that Stef is a lovely guy, he doesn’t have it in him to be over the top physically brutal against Gawn as has been suggested.

* adjust 2020 for equivalent 20 minute quarters

The Bulldogs can win of course, but they will need to rely on the game being unusual and not following the norms established during 2021. It would require several of:

- masterful tactical moves by Beveridge that Goodwin can’t counter, the most obvious one being the Bulldogs change how they bring the ball into their forward line which counters  Melbourne’s backline. If the Bulldogs kick long at Naughton, while he will mark a few through the game, Melbourne’s backline will dominate as it’s too predictable.

- multiple “out of the box” performances from Bulldogs’ players, and not just the top line players as there will be plans to counter the obviously dangerous players.

- multiple “down” performances from Melbourne’s players, which if it happens would likely be related to Beveridge comprehensively out coaching Goodwin.

- persistent unusual accuracy or inaccuracy when kicking for goal.

- significant impact of in-game injuries.

Edited September 23, 2021 by Lampers
Misspelled Naughton

[TheWiz 782]

I’ve gained 2kg over the past two weeks. I can’t stand this anymore. I’m a nervous wreck. Been trying to find comfort in wine and pasta. Made the mistake of watching one of our H&A games against the Dogs… you better believe that resulted in a 2014 Shiraz and pasta, butter and cheese.

One more sleep to go. Thinking spagbol tonight.

[Guest]

Good thing none of us wanted to sleep tonight anyways. Amirite?

[Demon17 5,231]

Stefan Martin's 2021 record:

8 Games, aerages are  3 kicks, 7 handballs and 16 hitouts a game.

71 % game time.

And he's the answer to Max Gawn?

 

[Kent 2,920]

1 minute ago, Demon17 said:

Stefan Martin's 2021 record:

8 Games, aerages are  3 kicks, 7 handballs and 16 hitouts a game.

71 % game time.

And he's the answer to Max Gawn?

 

ye s to all of that but he is a very fierce character and is willing to compete

[Jaded No More 68,976]

4 minutes ago, Kent said:

ye s to all of that but he is a very fierce character and is willing to compete

Remember too he knows Gawn well. Knows how to play him. Trained with him. Played him a fair amount. He’s definitely physically better matched up against Gawn than English. 
The thing is, the Dogs aren’t worried about Gawn in the centre bounces. They’re used to losing ruck contests and winning clearances. They’re worried about Gawn around the ground. They’re worried about his contested marking and that’s what Martin is going to struggle to stop, without using illegal tactics. 
I just hope the umpires are watching. Especially bloody Dog fan Stevic!

[Lucifers Hero 40,555]

i-ll-play-barassi-s-up-for-demons-big-day

Barassi's 'advice' to the team:  “concentrate on doing your best. You can’t do any better than that. Do your best, make sure you listen to the coach – and hope the umpiring’s good.” 

Of course the last bit is out of the player's control but fingers crossed the umps are consistent and don't just guess the frees for either side..

It was good to read he was invited to Perth.  Its a shame the quarantine protocols didn't have any concessions.  

This comment gave me a laugh:  “there’s only one thing wrong with that dog. It’s black and white.” after patting a local pooch.  The 1958 GF still burns deep.  He hasn't lost one iota of his competitive streak. 

Edited September 23, 2021 by Lucifer's Hero

[Brownie 6,080]

Geez I didn't think I'd be this nervous this early!

Mason Cox glowing in his praise of Max and having a vent at all the rule changes. Nice!

https://www.theroar.com.au/2021/09/24/he-works-his-[censored]-off-why-im-all-in-on-gawn/

[old55 23,847]

28 minutes ago, Jaded said:

Remember too he knows Gawn well. Knows how to play him. Trained with him. Played him a fair amount. He’s definitely physically better matched up against Gawn than English. 
The thing is, the Dogs aren’t worried about Gawn in the centre bounces. They’re used to losing ruck contests and winning clearances. They’re worried about Gawn around the ground. They’re worried about his contested marking and that’s what Martin is going to struggle to stop, without using illegal tactics. 
I just hope the umpires are watching. Especially bloody Dog fan Stevic!

Stefan Martin left MFC at the end of 2012 - I don't think it's the same Max Gawn as then.

[faultydet 7,623]

7 hours ago, Chook said:

It's the year 2000. A new era. I am an 11 year old boy in Melbourne town, just 3 years down from Brisbane. A rugby state. But footy or rugby I wasn't in a round ball state of mind. I didn't "get it".

And so, there I was, a nominal Melbourne supporter ushered to Grand Final Day early in the morning to (now I understand) get some bloody tickets.

Melbourne. I'm 11. It's a Grand Final. Nothing special, I think to myself. My Grandpa Jim has seen this before, and his calmness soothes me.

And so I watched. And we lost. I didn't mind.
I didn't really "get" the 2000 Grand Final. We lost. I didn't really care.

I care now.

I didn't understand how hard that one was to reach.

It was just the 2nd in 43 years I now am able to calculate in the fulness of time.

Now I get it.

Fast forward from 2000. It's now mid-late 2004. Nathan Brown is killing it for the dees. I like this bloke. I like the Demons. My Grandfather's team. I might watch them on free-to-air and see how we go. 

We win.

This is it my friends. A life-long passion is born.

In 2004 - I listened to an entire Elimination Final on the radio. My god I could not do that now.

It's 2005. Jeff White gets his head caved in. I remember nothing but pain, but I see this live. I hear it and feel it live.

It's 2006. Nathan Jones debuts. In the finals, a kindly Saints fan gifts me a ticket and I watch the game from the wing live. We beat St Kilda, and Chook McLean stamps himself on my psyche in a way I'll never forget. No matter what happens afterward. 

It's 2007. Demonland seems like a nice place to vent after a pretty terrible year. I might sign up.

2008, 9, 10, 11 pass as years tend to do, and we seem not to want to win any longer.
My grandpa, who took me to that 2000 grand final and instilled that love for Melbourne, passes away.

And still the years press on: 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17.

Pain, pain pain. And I see it all in person.

I cannot imagine the pain of those born in the 60s, or 70s, or 80, but I can fathom it.

And then we get to experience 2018. What a joyous year it was, but ultimately one built on sand, and we know that now. But it was fun, and I see it to its bitter conclusion in Perth, in person. I had officially become a nuffy.

And still time rolls on, and I roll with it, now completely pulled in, never to escape.

2019, 2020. Pain again, and I think this might be the lot of Melbourne forever, and me too (of course, because why should I be happy?)

And then 2021comes.

Just a joyous year in spite of everything non-football related that we all know about. I could talk forever about why this year means what it means from a football sense, but let me say this at least:

Here is a chance for Melbourne to come full circle now.

I think back to that kid who went to a grand final just a couple of years after coming down from Brisbane, and how little he "got" it.

I get it now. I want it. I need it.

Go dees.

I'll have a beer for you Grandpa Jim, like I said I would, way back in 2011 when it looked bad for you and the club both.

Melbourne recovered, and I'm Melbourne. I'm Melbourne, and I'm Melbourne through and through.

I very often roll my eyes and skim or ignore what I suspect are long winded and self-indulgent posts.

I'm glad I read this. Thanks for posting it.

[Jaded No More 68,976]

14 minutes ago, Pollyanna said:

Stefan Martin left MFC at the end of 2012 - I don't think it's the same Max Gawn as then.

True. But they’re still close mates and they would have trained together. 

[spirit of norm smith 16,651]

23 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

i-ll-play-barassi-s-up-for-demons-big-day

Barassi's 'advice' to the team:  “concentrate on doing your best. You can’t do any better than that. Do your best, make sure you listen to the coach – and hope the umpiring’s good.” 

Of course the last bit is out of the player's control but fingers crossed the umps are consistent and don't just guess the frees for either side..

It was good to read he was invited to Perth.  Its a shame the quarantine protocols didn't have any concessions.  

This comment gave me a laugh:  “there’s only one thing wrong with that dog. It’s black and white.” after patting a local pooch.  The 1958 GF still burns deep.  He hasn't lost one iota of his competitive streak. 

Great article. I’m spending at least 2 hours reading all the AFL, MFC, Age and Hun articles.  It’s a Demons-“literary festival. Got to love the great Ronald Dale Barassi. 

[Guest]

On a lighter note…

 

$1.60 from Coles! But only for today. So rush on in and grab one. Or, since it’s an MFC fan-site so this is probs applicable: get ‘the help’ to rush on in and grab one. 

[KLV 1,768]

9 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

On a lighter note…

 

$1.60 from Coles! But only for today. So rush on in and grab one. Or, since it’s an MFC fan-site so this is probs applicable: get ‘the help’ to rush on in and grab one. 

When did sauce become “ketchup”?

[Guest]

1 minute ago, KLV said:

When did sauce become “ketchup”?

Australia = the 53rd State

[John Crow Batty 8,886]

16 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Australia = the 53rd State

Our new flag coming soon. Actually the word may be originally from Chinese Ke-chiap which is a type of sauce.

Edited September 24, 2021 by John Crow Batty

[Demonland 73,834]

 

[dazzledavey36 55,983]

Simon Goodwin and Max Gawn with be doing a live press conference. 

You'll be able to tune into Fox Sports News to watch it live.

 

[Fat Tony 5,322]

There’s a lot of talk about targeting Gawn but I hope we are super aggressive on the Bont and English. 

[binman 44,683]

PSA

Supermercado on SEN right now

[DemonWheels 1,118]

Listening to Kane Cornes this morning from Perth he reckons the general support around town is in the Dees favour against the Doggies 80/20.
 

If that translates even to 70/30 or 60/40 at the game then that’s a huge advantage on top of the fact we’ve already played some massive games at the same ground.