Is sitting on top a bad thing?

[At the break of Gawn 4,460]

From the outset this may seem like a silly question, but sitting on top of the ladder certainly has some negative side-effects. Teams look at you as the grand prize and rile up all their energy to knock you over. Opposition coaches spend an inordinate amount of time analysing your weakness and you end up becoming the hunted. We’ve seen it twice in our losses and even a couple of times in our wins.

Simon Goodwin says we want to be a club that “welcomes pressure” and to be able to perform where there are great expectations, but this group of players isn’t there yet.

A couple of examples are:

1. Our first loss to Adelaide. There’s no doubt Adelaide threw everything at us. They played out of their skin and utilised corridor tactics they haven’t used as successfully since. Adelaide hasn’t played a game like that since and wont for the rest of the season.

2. Our second loss to the Pies. I know there was the Buckley factor, but the Pies played their best game of the season to knock us off.

3. North in Tassie. Built up as a David vs Goliath game, North put us on the back foot by playing their best game to date, but thankfully we corrected things late. 

Perhaps a small slide down the ladder might not be the worst thing in the world for us, as opposition teams look to focus on the Dogs, Lions and Cats instead.

Winning a premiership is as hard as ever due to how close this competition is. It’s teams who catch the competition off guard and fire at the right time that can get it done. A lull for Melbourne may lower expectations of our competitors while we correct our forward line and our clearances to launch a fresh assault.

[Superunknown 4,217]

Interesting.
A bit like the responsibility of the maillot jaune in Le Tour.

I mean, when you're as good as Pogacar, you can cover this, assuming a good team (I expected him to let O'Connor have it until the Ventoux stage but what do I know), but there's a lot of pressure. You have to cover everyone else, control everyone else. Everyone's agin' you.

Having said that, I'd much prefer to be 1-2 wins better and sitting up there.

 

[ArtificialWisdom 4,045]

In the last 10 years Hawthorn in 2013 is the only team to finish 1st and win the flag. Is it bad? I don't think so. But it doesn't really help when September comes around.

[Sydee 4,450]

2 minutes ago, ArtificialWisdom said:

In the last 10 years Hawthorn in 2013 is the only team to finish 1st and win the flag. Is it bad? I don't think so. But it doesn't really help when September comes around.

What is bad is when you finish outside top 4 or have finals outside home state 

This team has given itself its best chance in very long time - its destiny is completely in its hands - are they actually any good - we are about to find out

I'm really disappointed in their current form but plenty of top 8 teams have delivered up stinkers this season. The measure of a good team versus one that's average is how they respond 

Thursday we get to see what they are made of 

[adonski 12,229]

A compelling argument. I'd prefer the safety of 12th personally. 

[BW511 2,676]

20 minutes ago, Sydee said:

What is bad is when you finish outside top 4 or have finals outside home state 

This team has given itself its best chance in very long time - its destiny is completely in its hands - are they actually any good - we are about to find out

I think this is the key, if we are sitting top it gives us the best possible chance of being Top 4.

Any slide down the ladder then makes it harder to stay inside the Top 4. Particularly when we would be the worst performed side in the Top 8 (maybe more) over the past 2-3 weeks.

Due to our ability to win from behind early in the year, we have become complacent and it seems like we just expect it to happen.

We need a spark and to get some enjoyment back in our game, the life has been sucked out of our guys.

 

[loges 6,767]

A good side would embrace being on top.

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

 

47 minutes ago, At the break of Gawn said:

From the outset this may seem like a silly question, but sitting on top of the ladder certainly has some negative side-effects. Teams look at you as the grand prize and rile up all their energy to knock you over. Opposition coaches spend an inordinate amount of time analysing your weakness and you end up becoming the hunted. We’ve seen it twice in our losses and even a couple of times in our wins.

Simon Goodwin says we want to be a club that “welcomes pressure” and to be able to perform where there are great expectations, but this group of players isn’t there yet.

A couple of examples are:

1. Our first loss to Adelaide. There’s no doubt Adelaide threw everything at us. They played out of their skin and utilised corridor tactics they haven’t used as successfully since. Adelaide hasn’t played a game like that since and wont for the rest of the season.

2. Our second loss to the Pies. I know there was the Buckley factor, but the Pies played their best game of the season to knock us off.

3. North in Tassie. Built up as a David vs Goliath game, North put us on the back foot by playing their best game to date, but thankfully we corrected things late. 

Perhaps a small slide down the ladder might not be the worst thing in the world for us, as opposition teams look to focus on the Dogs, Lions and Cats instead.

Winning a premiership is as hard as ever due to how close this competition is. It’s teams who catch the competition off guard and fire at the right time that can get it done. A lull for Melbourne may lower expectations of our competitors while we correct our forward line and our clearances to launch a fresh assault.

Our losses certainly have anomalous factors associated with it as you have outlined. But the counter to it is that there should be some maturity in the group to sustain that positional dominance. I don't think we have that just yet. We talk the talk about embracing the predatorial aspects of becoming 'the hunted' but we do not transfer that desired 'dominance' and maturity into gameday. Our starts to games is an example of this. We look complacent and passive (a useful analogy is Rocky in Rocky IV against the infamous Ivan Drago) as we seem to setup for the counter rather than being proactive. 

Our run home is Port, Hawks, Suns, Dogs, Eagles, Crows, Cats. There are no easy games here. The teams in the top 8 will all be playing for ladder position. Eagles in particular will be fighting for a position in the top 8. Hawks and Suns will be looking to take a scalp and build for next year - the only upside here is that they are a young sides and will probably have tired somewhat as we play them. Crows will be trying to repeat their success earlier in the year. Games against Port (this week), Cats and Dogs are all Top 4 clashes - it is the hardest run home of any team. With our form line, 0-3 is likely, 1-2 would be a fair outcome, 2-1 and 3-0 seem unachievable. 

Now that we have relinquished top position, the media will have proved their assumptions right and the narrative around 'imposters' will start to grow. Lose this week and that will grow exponentially. 

Its funny how quickly the landscape changes - this will be a true test of grit and resolve of this playing group.  

[Smokey 4,389]

24 minutes ago, loges said:

A good side would embrace being on top.

We spent 9 rounds on top and our average losing margin all year is 9 points from 3 losses

Please tell me more about how we're not a good side 

[Stiff Arm 4,419]

With all due respect, I think supporters and the media wind themselves up over things like the ladder. Drop one place down and suddenly its doom and gloom. Too much emotion, which is perfectly understandable

I'd reckon the FD and players are focussing on one week at a time, quite literally. Get some good recovery and training during the week, do the homework on the oppo, strategise, get Chocco into the minds of those players out of form, etc.

 

 

Edited July 5, 2021 by Stiff Arm

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,862]

One of the anomaly's of the final 8 system is that while 1st place has the advantage of playing the 4th ranked team in week 1, the second place team actually plays the 4th ranked team in the prelim if all week 1 and 2 results went according to ladder position.

For example, Port who finished 1st last year ended up playing their prelim against Richmond (#3) rather than the lower ranked Geelong (#4) and lost accordingly

Therefore if there was a massive gulf between #3 and #4, it's the second ranked team that actually benefits come prelim week assuming they win their qualifying final...if that makes sense. 

Moral of the story is that there is absolutely no difference between finishing 1st and second. \

Secondly, we're not playing like a top 2 side at the moment.

Thirdly, I'd rather not have the hype that being top of the ladder provides.

Edited July 5, 2021 by Bring-Back-Powell

[Swooper1987 3,322]

Taking Melbourne and its formline out of the equation, top spot is overrated in terms of winning the flag.  The compromised fixture has enabled some interesting minor premiers over the last few years.  The fact that of Richmond's three flags, none were won from top spot;the mighty Brisbane Lions team won three in a row never finishing better than second, the Hawks in 2015 were third going into finals etc etc. What is important is top 4.  If we finish 4th and play the Bulldogs at the G - no harm done.  If we finish third and get Brisbane away, it becomes somewhat harder, but still not impossible.  From outside the top 4 it gets very difficult. 4 wins in a row against excellent sides.  There's a reason why only the one team has managed to do it, and they were incredibly lucky.

I think 16 wins will get top 4 - we need 4 out of 7.  Those behind us need 5 out of 7.  

[At the break of Gawn 4,460]

1 hour ago, Sydee said:

What is bad is when you finish outside top 4 or have finals outside home state 

This team has given itself its best chance in very long time - its destiny is completely in its hands - are they actually any good - we are about to find out

I'm really disappointed in their current form but plenty of top 8 teams have delivered up stinkers this season. The measure of a good team versus one that's average is how they respond 

Thursday we get to see what they are made of 

Yes absolutely finishing top 4 gives you every opportunity, and finishing 2nd even better. 
 

If Melbourne could say displace the 2nd place team, say the lions, in rnd 23 by beating the Cats to then host a home final against the Lions at the MCG, it would be an absolute dream.

[Salems Lot 2,535]

We are a good team lacking a good FF

[titan_uranus 25,020]

46 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

One of the anomaly's of the final 8 system is that while 1st place has the advantage of playing the 4th ranked team in week 1, the second place team actually plays the 4th ranked team in the prelim if all week 1 and 2 results went according to ladder position.

For example, Port who finished 1st last year ended up playing their prelim against Richmond (#3) rather than the lower ranked Geelong (#4) and lost accordingly

Therefore if there was a massive gulf between #3 and #4, it's the second ranked team that actually benefits come prelim week assuming they win their qualifying final...if that makes sense. 

Moral of the story is that there is absolutely no difference between finishing 1st and second. \

Secondly, we're not playing like a top 2 side at the moment.

Thirdly, I'd rather not have the hype that being top of the ladder provides.

There is a huge difference between 1st and 2nd, depending on how confident you are of winning the QF.

The loser of 1v4 gets the winner of 5v8. But the loser of 2v3 gets the winner of 6v7.

So, if you finish 1st but lose the QF, you'll almost certainly end up with a semi final against 5th. If we're in the top 4, 5th is going to be Port or Geelong you'd think, but not Sydney, West Coast, GWS, Richmond or any of the weaker sides.

Point being, it's not disastrous to finish 2nd or 3rd this year. Win, you're into a prelim. Lose, and you'll host a semi against someone outside the top 5, which to date have been the 5 best sides in it this year.

[one_demon 826]

Don't worry,  soon it won't be a problem

[loges 6,767]

3 hours ago, Smokey said:

We spent 9 rounds on top and our average losing margin all year is 9 points from 3 losses

Please tell me more about how we're not a good side 

Think you're taking my post the wrong way.

[Smokey 4,389]

6 minutes ago, loges said:

Think you're taking my post the wrong way.

The post was a bit ambiguous. Do you think we embraced being on the top of the ladder?  

[Skuit 10,031]

As mentioned, second spot can often be better than first, in playing a likely weaker team in the knock-out stages. Yet, with the pre-finals bye nowadays, fifth could also end up better than fourth depending where other teams land. There's five fairly clear and evenly-competitive front-runners this season. Take this (admittedly unlikely) scenario: 

Brisbane
Geelong
Port
Melbourne
Western
Sydney
GWS
West Coast

Would you prefer to travel up to Brisbane in the first round against the top-placed team, and then in the event of a loss play a follow-up fixture against the Dogs who didn't travel and played an 8th-placed interstate team? Or potentially the reverse?  

 

[loges 6,767]

1 hour ago, Smokey said:

The post was a bit ambiguous. Do you think we embraced being on the top of the ladder?  

I think we are a top side as long as we bring close to our best. The comment was meant to be just a general observation of how I would expect a top team to react. I will say I Don't think we bring a certain ruthlessness to our games that previous top sides seem to be able to do.

[Spargonicus 539]

5 hours ago, BW511 said:

I think this is the key, if we are sitting top it gives us the best possible chance of being Top 4.

Any slide down the ladder then makes it harder to stay inside the Top 4. Particularly when we would be the worst performed side in the Top 8 (maybe more) over the past 2-3 weeks.

Due to our ability to win from behind early in the year, we have become complacent and it seems like we just expect it to happen.

We need a spark and to get some enjoyment back in our game, the life has been sucked out of our guys.

 

I especially agree with your last comment - watching them live last Saturday, they looked very defensive in mindset, all across the ground. To the point of being scared to take any risks at all. That tended to slow down ball movement, and made our F50 entries even harder. The last quarter was noticeably more dynamic and bold.

I'm certainly worried about our form and prospects, but what gives me hope is that maybe of they get that defensive/attacking balance tweaked, things will become better and yes, more fun for the players. It also has a side effect of putting more pressure on the opposition, of course, as mistakes are punished.

[Jaded No More 68,966]

Finishing 1st or 4th makes no difference if both positions on the ladder mean you play finals on your home ground. 
But finishing top 4 is absolutely critical. Anything outside of that and you’re basically no chance to win a flag, but for a real anomaly or incredibly good fortune, or Covid. 

[Demonstone 22,640]

This thread bears no resemblance to what I thought the title was referring to.   As you were.

[Fork 'em 6,984]

While top spot is nice for bragging rights it doesn't often end up in a premiership.
Top 4 will do me nicely.
Being injury free and being in form at the right time is far more important.