Free Kick Differential 2021

[Demonstone 22,517]

Further evidence of the umpiring "bias" against Melbourne.  

[Cheesy D. Pun 1,765]

Happy to be corrected, but I believe Richmond been last in this stat for the past 4-5 years.

They are coached to play on the edge and it works for them.

Also, they're not necessarily interested in being first to the ball, instead sweating on their opponents which provides turnover scoring (usually the most efficient scoring method) but also free kicks against.

[Deemania since 56 6,636]

On 5/17/2021 at 1:48 PM, Nasher said:

Absolutely no correlation whatsoever between free kick diff and ladder position, shock horror. Maybe we might eliminate the culture our sport has of relentlessly complaining about the umpiring and blaming losses on it? Nah, of course not.

There is one element of the free kick continuum worthy of consideration - in terms of handouts and game-levelers. Years of appreciating footy had taught me that it ain't the number of frees you get (nor the differentials between teams awarded frees during matchplay), it is really just a blatant matter of WHEN, WHERE and WHY the free kicks are awarded.

Some teams are blessed with oodles of frees in the backline. Some teams are blessed with oodles of frees in the forward line - particularly near the goals when a 'catch-up' circumstance is required (this equates to rigging a win, in reality). 

 

Ask yourself:

• Where would you rather earn a free kick?
• When is it most important to be awarded a free kick near the goals in a game of footy?
• How many matches in an entire season are won from the award of free kicks or the contrasting 'overlooked' incidents that should be awarded a free kick in front of goal but were not for some unexplained reason that many experienced spectators cannot articulate - let alone understand?

For the purists among us, '..heil, heil the conspiracy theory...'  (simply because it is logical evidence of 'the fiddle' with games.

For the optimists among us, '...it's all just fine...the umps did a good job...'

 

[leave it to deever 17,511]

On 5/17/2021 at 12:47 PM, Demonland said:

We're getting closer to the red.

The Geelong ones all go to Selwood who is on thirty for the season already.

[leave it to deever 17,511]

On 5/17/2021 at 1:09 PM, Brownie said:

Have Richmond players been spitting on umps or keying their cars?

Hope so.

[Demonland 72,185]

We're sliding down the ladder.

[SPC 3,549]

Any ladders on missed holding the ball calls per team? 

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,754]

1 hour ago, Demonland said:

We're sliding down the ladder.

Given I can't discern any link between this data and ladder position, can't say that I care. 

[In Harmes Way 7,771]

9 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Given I can't discern any link between this data and ladder position, can't say that I care. 

That's what they want you to think LDVC.....propaganda from the machine.

[Wrecker46 2,977]

What about free kicks not paid? Like for example a deliberate out of bounds with seconds to go in a match right next to the goals?

[deespicable me 1,486]

Given the "darlings" of the AFL the Bulldogs are so favored you would have to reckon' The Bont is leading the Brownlow.

They might struggle to stay top 4 if that +32 gets evened up over the second half of the year.

I'm glad we're close to even, it means the fools in yellow don't enter a game thinking they've got to limit the frees to us.

[Demonland 72,185]

It was a good week for our free kick differential not that it helped. 

[Demonland 72,185]

We’re in the negative now 

 

[Pates 9,660]

Surely about time we get #freekickbulldogs trending. It’s out of control now. 

[manny100 1,554]

Watching a lot of games on TV the interpretation varies considerably game by game.  

Given what appears to be subjective decision making in many instances over the long haul frees should be around 50/50, ie win some/lose some. Most of incorrect disposal frees could go either way.

We just had a bad night by the law of averages and we will hopefully make it up later.

Having said that goals against from 50/50 decisions on incorrect disposal etc really hurt.

I can't figure out how if a players arm is held there is prior opportunity.

 

 

[ding 5,126]

1 hour ago, Demonland said:

We’re in the negative now 

 

GFC, surely the League HQ will have to address that before the finals.

That disparity for the Dogs is just over the top.

Tiggers probably have cause for complaint as well.

[Sir Why You Little 37,035]

1 hour ago, Demonland said:

We’re in the negative now 

 

That is worth a Royal Commission 

“you cannot touch them Tony….”

[The heart beats true 18,123]

In an industry obsessed with statistics nobody in the media ever wants to go near this with a 10 foot pole, but at both ends of that table there are MASSIVE outliers.

You could, theoretically, make an argument that Richmond (or any team in that position) are pushing the laws of the game with certain behaviour to explain that discrepancy, but how can you possibly say that one team is playing 'within' the rules by that much more than their opponents?

It's not an anomaly.

[The heart beats true 18,123]

So I just did the math and the Bulldogs have AVERAGED +8 free kicks over their last 6 games.

?

[sue 9,104]

16 minutes ago, The heart beats true said:

In an industry obsessed with statistics nobody in the media ever wants to go near this with a 10 foot pole, but at both ends of that table there are MASSIVE outliers.

You could, theoretically, make an argument that Richmond (or any team in that position) are pushing the laws of the game with certain behaviour to explain that discrepancy, but how can you possibly say that one team is playing 'within' the rules by that much more than their opponents?

It's not an anomaly.

Not an anomaly if the dogs played Richmond every week ?

[Star of the 80s 154]

I’d like to see the figures for the 2016 finals series...I bet you’ll find a similar trend of favouritism towards the Dogs. 

[John Crow Batty 8,863]

16 minutes ago, Star of the 80s said:

I’d like to see the figures for the 2016 finals series...I bet you’ll find a similar trend of favouritism towards the Dogs. 

Bulldogs won all their free kick counts in 4 finals including against WC at Perth. 79 frees for to 48 against. 
In the prelim and GF it was a total of 43 to 21 in their favour. 

Edited July 26, 2021 by John Crow Batty

[Star of the 80s 154]

Will be interesting to see what happens in this year’s final series. Umpires seem to love the Dogs and obviously helped them in their Premiership year in ‘16.

[Northern Summer 292]

2 minutes ago, Star of the 80s said:

Will be interesting to see what happens in this year’s final series. Umpires seem to love the Dogs and obviously helped them in their Premiership year in ‘16.

Replace 'helped them' with 'won them'...

[daisycutter 29,614]

can one get free kick statistics by umpire by game?

I'd like to see each umpires for and against free kicks for all melbourne's games this year