My Round 3 Preview and Prediction

[CHF 2,817]

Be still my thundering heart.

2 Rounds done… 2 wins and 8 premiership points in the bank. So very strange. There were even some good coaching moves made during the game.

I was not far off in my prediction last week. I predicted a 4 goal win – close, except that it could have been anywhere between a 3 and 10 goal margin. Big difference between Round 1 and Round 2 was that the midfield looked well organised and ran hard all day.

So with Round 2 done and dusted we turn our attention to Round 3 and our game in Canberra on Sunday against the Great Waste of Space (GWS), The AFL’s version of the creature that was created by Victor Frankenstein. With this, the Waste of Space’s 10^th year as a ‘club’, it should be settled and well structured. However, I do not think that is the case. It has been the poor cousin living next door to the Swans based in a wasteland of AFL fans. I can see constant messages being sent by the Captain of the good ship, Waste of Space, Reading “Send Lawyers, Guns and Money, the natives are restless”.

I am sure from that paragraph you have picked up that I do not hold this ‘team’ in high regard. I do not even hate them, more that I am miffed at their existence. To hate them I would need to have some respect for them.

Still, I have to put that aside and look at the actual footy. There are 4 premiership points to be won and lost….. this is serious. I want us to grab those points.

The facts:

We are playing them with an extra day’s rest. Advantage us.

They are travelling back from a loss in Perth. Advantage us

We play in Canberra. ? (well it is a fact)

Our third string forward line still misses a lot. Advantage them.

Problem areas of the game for us:

After the performance last week, it is difficult to identify the major problems except for one. More on the later.

Defence was again very good, and they were well organised to cover the main threats that the Saints presented. Himmelberg and Ninja Green look to be the main threats for the defence to look out for. Their kicking for gaol against Freo was just about as bad as ours was against the Saints. They had 9 players from the midfield that between them kicked 0.10. While May and Lever did not have an easy time of it last week as they had in Round 1, the rest of the defenders stepped up and worked as a unit. We need them to keep it up and look to improve against the Waste of Space.

The midfield does not have too many problems given that level of performance across the board. The hard part will be maintaining that quality. This week we need to come out hard and fast in the middle, give the opposition no space and produce the repeat efforts in close that were a feature of last week’s performance. We need the midfield to dominate so they give us as many chances as possible to have scoring shots.

(This bit is a cut and paste of my comments last week with a couple of minor adjustments – I know I am being lazy) Now let us turn our attention to our forwards.

The good; we kicked a winning score last week.

The bad; it was not that many goals (as it should have been).

The ugly; the bad kicking for goal. Almost twice as many behinds as goals.

In the forwards I like the structure and the players. It is functioning well. Kossie and Spargo together are a great double act and the talls are getting to the places they need to. When the goal kicking accuracy sorts itself out it will be a sight to behold.

Freo kicked 11.21 against GWS’s defence with pretty much the same forward setup as played against us with a couple of changes. Perryman looks to be the best of that lot with Cumming getting a lot of possessions from half back and being their main carrier out of defence. Will be interesting to see who plays on him/who he plays on.

The selection meeting this week will be simple. Shut the door, have a couple of beers, eat the cheese board, catch up on the news and announce ‘no changes’.

The MFC ‘glass half empties’ are having a hard time of it at the moment and a few of them seem to have gone to ground. I am sure they will surface again the near future. If we keep winning, I await the first post criticising the players for wearing short socks and how it is a sign that Goodwin has lost them.

The big question is; will Dr.Frank’s Creature run rampant and create fear and havoc or will the Demon hoards contain, restrict and then overrun the self-entitled love child of the AFL? (A thought; does this make Sheedy Frankenstein’s assistant, Igor?)

I am going with the Demon hoard to bring home a good win making it a 3-0 start. 6 goal margin to the Dees.

 

[Mickey 4,756]

Heading to this game. First game in person in nearly 5 years.

We should be sniffing a wounded opponent and really go in for the kill. Not get ahead of ourselves and just assume it's going to happen; really get ruthless and grind them in to the dust. We'll see.

[titan_uranus 25,176]

17 hours ago, CHF said:

We play in Canberra. ? (well it is a fact) 

Probably advantage them.

We're 2-5 at Manuka, and haven't played there since 2017. Against GWS we're 1-2 at the ground, winning in GWS' first season and then losing in 2015 and 2017.

GWS is 13-11 at Manuka, but most of the losses were early on. They are 12-3 at the ground since 2015.

[Little Richard 6,265]

Having an in-form Tom McDonald is such a huge boost for this team.

Getting over the Giants at Manuka would be a great win but I think we're a very good chance.

[Little Goffy 14,754]

This is our classic danger game. 

Warning one:  We've had a couple of wins, people are beginning to think 'Oh, we should maybe take the Demons seriously, let's all take a closer look at them this weekend.' 

Warning two: For the first time this season we are playing an opponent who is definitely rated below us.

Warning three: We've begun to congratulate ourselves for our pressure and discipline.

Warning four: The week after this game comes the 'real test' against an allegedly vulnerable allegedly top team.

 

Quite frankly, anything other than a flat performance and disappointing loss would mean we have made serious steps up in maturity.

Warning five: Just getting the job done could be seen as doing enough.

 

My tip - Demons by eight goals and a little April in Canberra hypothermia. Come to think of it, a football game at Manuka Oval was where I first really appreciated the power of piercing wind and sleet.

[Bring-Back-Powell 15,257]

This game will tell us a lot where we are as a side. Will we have the maturity to win a game interstate while starting favorites? Or will we lose and once again chase our tail all year and endure another rollercoaster of a season.

Win this game AND one of Geelong or Richmond and I'm confident we mean business this year.

Our last two performances at Manuka have been utterly terrible. In 2017 GWS had an 8 goal lead at 3 qtr time while in 2015 we somehow blew a 6 goal lead to lose by 7 odd goals.

[Bring-Back-Powell 15,257]

3 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

my tip - Demons by eight goals and a little April in Canberra hypothermia. Come to think of it, a football game at Manuka Oval was where I first really appreciated the power of piercing wind and sleet.

It's predicted to be 22 degrees at opening bounce. Should be a lovely evening for a game of footy.

[dl4e 5,851]

I think a lot will depend on GWS. They looked uninerested against Freo. They may throw everything at us early but hold and we should beat them. Alternatively they may be not interested again and there for a flogging but will we be in the mood to give them one. I think there is a problem with Cameron.

[Deemania since 56 6,763]

3 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

It's predicted to be 22 degrees at opening bounce. Should be a lovely evening for a game of footy.

It's predicted, also, that the goal-kicking yips are going to disappear this week. There is no reason for it other than good fortune and happenstance. Thus, the Dees will win this one by about ten goals and commit two of the opposition players to bed rest in hospital.

Crystal balling it, I know, but wouldn't it be nice?

 

[dino rover 714]

Gawn dominated in the ruck IMO against St K

What does GWS offer there?

[Diamond_Jim 12,689]

12 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

My tip - Demons by eight goals and a little April in Canberra hypothermia. Come to think of it, a football game at Manuka Oval was where I first really appreciated the power of piercing wind and sleet.

actually it's a lovely 27 degrees predicted for Sunday with a 15-20k northerly.

Should be perfect around game time.

Wouldn't it be wonderful if we win each quarter by say 16points. I think the last stress free game I can remember was the 100 points win against Carlton

[Little Goffy 14,754]

8 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

It's predicted to be 22 degrees at opening bounce. Should be a lovely evening for a game of footy.

Then 3 degrees down per quarter!  For eight months of the year in Canberra as soon as the sun goes down the temperature rapidly shifts until it reaches equilibrium with the void of space.

I miss it so much.  How people sleep up here in Sydney when the air is sweating on you like it just came out of a burger kitchen is a mystery I'll never grasp.

[loges 6,767]

Here we play a team that has just lost to the two sides we have just beaten. A loss would mean that lack of maturity still lingers.

[Demonstone 23,343]

I can't see us losing this one.  If we do, I can attribute it to just the one cause. 

Sauce?

[Sir Why You Little 37,310]

Demand Excellence Max, as Captain you set the tone on the ground. 
This is why i have never liked Dual Captains 

Max sets the standards 

[Roost it far 9,543]

It’s going to be tight but we’ll get away from them in the second half 

[Diamond_Jim 12,689]

I'd send Fritsch and a trainer to Canberra today for daily goal practice.

IIRC Manuka used to be a similar size to the MCG. Is that still correct?

[Sir Why You Little 37,310]

2 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

I'd send Fritsch and a trainer to Canberra today for daily goal practice.

IIRC Manuka used to be a similar size to the MCG. Is that still correct?

They have the old scoreboard up there

[Diamond_Jim 12,689]

9 minutes ago, Sir Why You Little said:

They have the old scoreboard up there

I think they still use it when cricket is played on the ground.

 A beautiful thing that scoreboard with all the chains and pulleys

[Pickett2Jackson 3,904]

1 hour ago, dl4e said:

I think a lot will depend on GWS. They looked uninerested against Freo. They may throw everything at us early but hold and we should beat them. Alternatively they may be not interested again and there for a flogging but will we be in the mood to give them one. I think there is a problem with Cameron.

 

Yes.  I dont buy the they will throw everything against us.  I mean they might but as you say they look disinterested and the coach may have lost them.

Still they have enough talent to knock most teams off on their day.

[Josh 1,420]

17 hours ago, Mickey said:

Heading to this game. First game in person in nearly 5 years.

We should be sniffing a wounded opponent and really go in for the kill. Not get ahead of ourselves and just assume it's going to happen; really get ruthless and grind them in to the dust. We'll see.

Love this post. Glad it's first reply. I think that's the difference between a team of down hill skier's and a real finals team, especially from a coaching perspective.

"We should win this" attitude means you are rating your own performance, looking forward to potential threats. Bad signs.

Siniffing a wounded opponent and going in for the kill. Just playing each match on its merit. That's what finals teams do, I have never witnessed this Melbourne team do that.

So we'll put.

[Superunknown 4,241]

I love our short socks. Perfect for road cycling. None of this Big Tall Socks Crit business.

Great post though I hope no one goes kicking for gaol!

[Smokey 4,389]

1 hour ago, Little Goffy said:

Warning three: We've begun to congratulate ourselves for our pressure and discipline.

Not sure what the point of saying this is. Sounds like another "drinking bathwater" type comment which sounds somewhat insightful but is impossible to substantiate. 

 

[Mr Steve 3,820]

Take them lightly and we will get beaten. GWS might have looked very poor last week but they did have an excuse. Turn up ready to go and we win. 

[Sir Why You Little 37,310]

14 minutes ago, Mr Steve said:

Take them lightly and we will get beaten. GWS might have looked very poor last week but they did have an excuse. Turn up ready to go and we win. 

What was their excuse?