Farewell Sam Weideman

[Fork 'em 6,984]

4 hours ago, Axis of Bob said:

Lynch retired in 2004, which is 17 years ago.

The game has gone through 3, perhaps 4 tactical revolutions in that time, so these examples are no longer relevant. 

Half the time Bradshaw was injured anyway.

[Little Richard 6,265]

4 hours ago, Axis of Bob said:

Lynch retired in 2004, which is 17 years ago.

The game has gone through 3, perhaps 4 tactical revolutions in that time, so these examples are no longer relevant. 

I tend to agree with you, was just adding to Macca's earlier post that there had been previous examples. I personally think that two, with Jackson and Gawn rotating through is more than enough. 

If our forward line was entirely dysfunctional, playing the three of them in the same side is something I'd advocate trying.

[Supermercado 2,797]

I appreciate his effort but for once we're trying to win a flag here, can't just wait all year for his game to click. Brown was rusty against North but still kicked goals, good against the Swans, then ordinary against Carlton in conditions that didn't suit him. I'm not ruling out switching back later if Brown doesn't work but unless there's some deeper tactical element to it that my pleb brain can't fathom I want to give the proven performer a chance.

[Ted Lasso 19,521]

I understand the attraction to playing 3 genuine key forwards. but the only way i can see this working is if Luke Jackson didn't also play. 

the most recent comparision i can think of is probably the Crows who played McGovern, Walker, Jenkins, and Lynch in the same forward line and made it to a grand final. 

but even with this comparison, Lynch is quite mobile and probably more like Bailey Fritsch. 

 

 

[Axis of Bob 11,836]

4 minutes ago, Supermercado said:

I appreciate his effort but for once we're trying to win a flag here, can't just wait all year for his game to click. Brown was rusty against North but still kicked goals, good against the Swans, then ordinary against Carlton in conditions that didn't suit him. I'm not ruling out switching back later if Brown doesn't work but unless there's some deeper tactical element to it that my pleb brain can't fathom I want to give the proven performer a chance.

The other thing that probably need to be said is that it's not just about this year. 

It's easy to say that Brown is better right now so we should play him. But what if Weid no longer sees opportunities here? Then we go into next year, the year after or even 4 years down the track without the riches we have now. Are we a better chance of winning the flag in 2023-25 with Weid at the club or with him at another club?

And the easy answer to that is "we're trying to win a flag this year, so who cares?".

Well the current chances of us winning a flag, according to the bookmakers, ($4.50) is about 25%. They are really good odds. And, say for example, that Brown playing increases those odds from 25% to 27%. That's still vastly more likely that we don't win the flag that we do. The difference between Brown and Weid is very small. 

But let's say that McDonald takes a big payday (hypothetical) at the end of the year, so our odds for next year are about the same with Weid and Brown (25%). But if Weid also leaves because he doesn't see a future here, then we've got Brown playing alone, and our odds drop to 15% and so on for the future years because now our structure is messed up. 

And this scenario would continue all the way through our premiership window without spending huge to pick up another mature key forward to pair with an ageing Brown. All of this for a possible (very minor) incremental benefit to this year when we are unlikely to win a flag anyway. 

The best way to win a flag is to be consistently good over a number of years, allowing the odds to work in your favour over time. If we are a 25% chance of winning the flag for 5 years, our chances of winning a flag are 76%. But if adding Brown increases our odds to even an unrealistic 40% this year, with drop offs in future years, we would only be a 69% chance of winning a flag overall.

[Macca 17,007]

9 minutes ago, Luther said:

I tend to agree with you, was just adding to Macca's earlier post that there had been previous examples. I personally think that two, with Jackson and Gawn rotating through is more than enough. 

If our forward line was entirely dysfunctional, playing the three of them in the same side is something I'd advocate trying.

The crux of my argument is the versatility factor rather than directly copying anything from the past ... (back in the day the tall FP, FF & CHF simply swapped roles from time to time in order to confuse the opposition) Smith often played a decoy FF apparently.  Whatever works

Most recognise that LJ & T-Mac are best suited in a roaming capacity but for whatever reason, Weideman has been pigeon-holed as a stay-at-home decoy type

At least Ben Brown gets out beyond the 50 metre arc occasionally but I'm not advocating Brown in and Weideman out anyway (at all)

My concern is that we just keep getting more of the same and then go with Brown where a similar thing could happen. Back to square one with the finals looming

We could easily end up going into the finals without a settled deep forward but do we need a settled deep forward if all our tall forwards can play a variety of different roles within the forward line? (and further up the ground in a linking capacity)

And of course Fritsch needs to fit in with that sort of system as well (along with the crumbers)

I see it all as entirely do-able with every forward playing their part  ... but if we're to win the big one we can't have a weak link

Related:  Chris Dawes' role was interesting in that 2010 premiership year won by the pies

[Smokey 4,389]

6 minutes ago, Macca said:

The crux of my argument is the versatility factor rather than directly copying anything from the past ... (back in the day the tall FP, FF & CHF simply swapped roles from time to time in order to confuse the opposition) Smith often played a decoy FF apparently.  Whatever works

Most recognise that LJ & T-Mac are best suited in a roaming capacity but for whatever reason, Weideman has been pigeon-holed as a stay-at-home decoy type

At least Ben Brown gets out beyond the 50 metre arc occasionally but I'm not advocating Brown in and Weideman out anyway (at all)

My concern is that we just keep getting more of the same and then go with Brown where a similar thing could happen. Back to square one with the finals looming

We could easily end up going into the finals without a settled deep forward but do we need a settled deep forward if all our tall forwards can play a variety of different roles within the forward line? (and further up the ground in a linking capacity)

And of course Fritsch needs to fit in with that sort of system as well (along with the crumbers)

I see it all as entirely do-able with every forward playing their part  ... but if we're to win the big one we can't have a weak link

Related:  Chris Dawes' role was interesting in that 2010 premiership year won by the pies

Not sure you watch SW closely enough if you think he parks himself i50 all game. Can recall a few things hes done up the ground in the last few weeks 

Edited June 7, 2021 by Smokey

[Ted Lasso 19,521]

2 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

The other thing that probably need to be said is that it's not just about this year. 

It's easy to say that Brown is better right now so we should play him. But what if Weid no longer sees opportunities here? Then we go into next year, the year after or even 4 years down the track without the riches we have now. Are we a better chance of winning the flag in 2023-25 with Weid at the club or with him at another club?

And the easy answer to that is "we're trying to win a flag this year, so who cares?".

Well the current chances of us winning a flag, according to the bookmakers, ($4.50) is about 25%. They are really good odds. And, say for example, that Brown playing increases those odds from 25% to 27%. That's still vastly more likely that we don't win the flag that we do. The difference between Brown and Weid is very small. 

But let's say that McDonald takes a big payday (hypothetical) at the end of the year, so our odds for next year are about the same with Weid and Brown (25%). But if Weid also leaves because he doesn't see a future here, then we've got Brown playing alone, and our odds drop to 15% and so on for the future years because now our structure is messed up. 

And this scenario would continue all the way through our premiership window without spending huge to pick up another mature key forward to pair with an ageing Brown. All of this for a possible (very minor) incremental benefit to this year when we are unlikely to win a flag anyway. 

The best way to win a flag is to be consistently good over a number of years, allowing the odds to work in your favour over time. If we are a 25% chance of winning the flag for 5 years, our chances of winning a flag are 76%. But if adding Brown increases our odds to even an unrealistic 40% this year, with drop offs in future years, we would only be a 69% chance of winning a flag overall.

I take your point mate, but the alternate scenario i'd float for you is, if we do win a flag, or go very close this year, we become a very attractive free agency destination, and given the age profile of our list, it's fair to assume we can compete for the next 6-8 years. 

I think even if Weideman did decide to leave, we can't let a player with potential lessen our chances of winning this season, especially 11-1, we're not going to get a much better platform to finish top 2 and push hard for a flag. 

if the club thinks Ben Brown or even Mitch Brown makes us a better side, we have to pick the best 22 to win right now, because Weideman is talented, but can be replaced. 

having said that, i believe Weideman has the potential to be better than Ben Brown right now if he can find just a bit more confidence at the level, and i'd like to see him backed in, but ultimately, just want to see a Melbourne premiership. 

[Macca 17,007]

Just now, Smokey said:

Not sure you watch SW closely enough if you think he parks himself i50 all game ... 

Weideman is up around half forward occasionally but it seems fleeting and not for a planned amount of time.  Soon enough he's back near the goal square

Brown tends to lead long (when he is in form) which can sometimes take him beyond the arc

They are both played as stay-at-home forwards but I believe that Weideman has a better chance of being an influence further up the ground (but for allotted times, not permanently)

I can't see both in the same team though ... it's one or the other but unfortunately Ben Brown can't really state his case properly right now.  And I'm a big fan of competition within the ranks

[Axis of Bob 11,836]

5 minutes ago, Dwight Schrute said:

I take your point mate, but the alternate scenario i'd float for you is, if we do win a flag, or go very close this year, we become a very attractive free agency destination, and given the age profile of our list, it's fair to assume we can compete for the next 6-8 years. 

I think even if Weideman did decide to leave, we can't let a player with potential lessen our chances of winning this season, especially 11-1, we're not going to get a much better platform to finish top 2 and push hard for a flag. 

if the club thinks Ben Brown or even Mitch Brown makes us a better side, we have to pick the best 22 to win right now, because Weideman is talented, but can be replaced. 

having said that, i believe Weideman has the potential to be better than Ben Brown right now if he can find just a bit more confidence at the level, and i'd like to see him backed in, but ultimately, just want to see a Melbourne premiership. 

You would have to pay extra to bring a free agent over of the exact type that you needed (who potentially? maybe another question). Getting the players to come at a price that works for your list ... that's the hard bit. Richmond threw money at Lynch and that worked, but haven't been able to bring in any other mature players (trade or free agency) since, whilst losing fringe players (plus Ellis to free agency). 

Richmond had to spend big to fix a gaping hole in their structure and nothing since. It's hard to keep a flag quality list together, especially when you are trying to bring in free agents. The best we could probably hope for is bringing in a player like Weideman but at a higher price.

If we keep Weid then I think that we are, overall, a much better chance of winning a flag with this playing group.

[Mel Bourne 4,515]

7 hours ago, Sydee said:

Love your optimism and not saying he is a lost cause but that is just so far off the mark - literally 

I would probably persevere with Sam too as I really don't rate BB much and frankly his last exposed form in the VFL sounded very poor. 

Based on that Mitch Brown or Majak Daw would be more deserving of a call up or simply revert to the structure we had before Weid or BB were available for selection.

Weid has ability - he will probably get another chance this week but those chances will eventually disappear unless he can find a way to impact the game consistently. I really think he is more of a lead up forward than pack marking forward and therefore we need to create space for him to run onto the ball - hopefully with Spargo delivering. His kicking looks shaky too atm which has been a strength before. In my opinion if he continues to try and take pack marks as his main focus he isn't going to make it he's simply not strong enough 

 

Do you mean in general, or based on recent form? Because I’m unsure how you could not “rate” a player who has come 2nd in the Coleman on two occasions, despite playing for an under-performing team. I found those two seasons of his very impressive, because it wasn’t like the Kangas were spending a heap of time in their forward 50, but he was making the absolute most of it when they did. Plus I have a lot of time for classical, full-forward straight-kicking in an age where it doesn’t seem high on a lot of players’ priority lists. 

Edited June 7, 2021 by Mel Bourne

[old55 23,625]

Last Friday's outcome with Weid was

• 2 goals kicked directly by players that he handballed to after groundball gets under maximum pressure.  That's rare stuff from KPFs
• 2 goals kicked directly after marking contests that he got first hands to
• There were also 2 goals he would normally have kicked from marks but his kicking was a bit off - normally he is a beautiful kick and there is not a structural issue with his kicking.
• He also got his hands to a number of marks that just didn't stick - he did stick his last mark at full stretch but couldn't finish with the kick at goal
• Two Fwd 50 tackles that resulted in stoppages

That's decent output and, if he takes all his chances, it's dominant output.

[jnrmac 20,106]

4 hours ago, dworship said:

Dazzle you and a number of posters in this thread keep harping on about how Weid is no good / a bust/ disappointing. The statement above is just another iteration of the same thing. What it should read is "He is not performing to the standard we want from him". It's clear that you and many others have run out of patience. If you go back through this thread you might think I'm happy with where he is at, I'm not. But I don't need to SHOUT what he isn't doing. However, I have patience and if the selection committee continue to play him he will either improve or fall away and be replaced. The way everyone is carrying on regarding Weid you would think the sky was falling and Goodwin should be sacked .....oh, wait.

This really isn't a case of Weid is no good/Weid is good. Or Weid 'haters' 

It also shouldn't be an argument about Weid being out of contract and we need to play him so other clubs don't poach him. For all we know he will declare he wants to go to say Collingwood and is performing poorly now because he knows he will be off next year. Not saying that is the case but it could be....

We all want him to be successful. He really should have shown more consistency by 5 1/2 years. He hasn't performed consistently at Casey even. Yes he is doing some team things. Well that surely is a minimum of what you'd expect. But ultimately he is there to kick goals and he isn't doing that.

The fact is we have a Coleman winning goal kicker in the wings. A proven goal kicker. Yes he's older and probably not the same as he was 3 or 4 years ago but its a valid opinion to say Weid needs to go back and get confidence at Casey and Play BB in the meantime.

 

[faultydet 7,612]

This is the year that we FINALLY seem to have almost all of the pieces together for a genuine shot at a flag.

Does anyone on here really think that Weid is a Premiership quality tall forward or do you think he can make the Grand Final team as a decoy, or a "take a tall defender so somebody else doesn't have to"?

He is currently showing bugger all. Hold your damn marks or leave is my opinion. This is not the year to carry someone with an eye to the future.

[old55 23,625]

Is Weideman the right guy?

[640MD 3,383]

29 minutes ago, Pollyanna said:

Last Friday's outcome with Weid was

• 2 goals kicked directly by players that he handballed to after groundball gets under maximum pressure.  That's rare stuff from KPFs
• 2 goals kicked directly after marking contests that he got first hands to
• There were also 2 goals he would normally have kicked from marks but his kicking was a bit off - normally he is a beautiful kick and there is not a structural issue with his kicking.
• He also got his hands to a number of marks that just didn't stick - he did stick his last mark at full stretch but couldn't finish with the kick at goal
• Two Fwd 50 tackles that resulted in stoppages

That's decent output and, if he takes all his chances, it's dominant output.

But he did not take those marks 

and he did not kick the goals,

when was the time he kicked a goal under pressure or the winning goal .

he needs to want it more or relax or something 

4 goal assists is not the output of a key forward. Add two, no one goal and it’s ok.  BBB has kicked important goals in the past, he does not have a long future, Weid might with a different approach. 
our club or another.  No idea,

but it’s about our only deficiency 

[Slartibartfast 17,336]

36 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

He hasn't performed consistently at Casey even. Yes he is doing some team things.

 

He performed consistently last year but that doesn't suit your argument.  And Brown isn't performing at the moment either, so he isn't an improvement on Weid.

While the teams winning there won't be any marginal changes.  The reality is Tmac, bless his heart, has stuffed up all the well made plans.

 

[DEE fence 5,028]

I was 13 in 1983 and I remember (just because my Dad went on about it at the time) when Melbourne went shopping and spent serious coin trying to arrest a horrible period for the club. One player purchased was Templeton, whose knees were shot. I worry that Brown is Templeton, we are remembering what he was, not what he can do now. I think the club needs to know now, whether Brown is here and now, play him for a few games and get a clear picture. If we get the Brown of 3/4 years ago I'd be stoked, but i just don't think it's the case. On exposed form I see BB moving with some hesitation, where I used to see him spring. I don't blame the club for trying, he was worth the gamble.

Moving onto Weid, I really do believe this kid will make it. His movement is good, he's brave, he is increasing his endurance and power and he is actually a very nice kick of the footy, last week not withstanding. I watched the game again for 4th time (the 2nd half), and small things didn't break his way, genuinely unlucky that robbed him of chances for a score that would have had us being calmer about his prospects. 

So in the same way I highlight what BB was vs now, I really think SW should be judged on what he does this season, and not against history, because I see a player who has advanced, and gives every indication of being about to have a breakout game. And power FF are hens teeth rare. Clubs persist with the Pattons, Danihers and Clokes for all their flaws because of this. And while he is not as good as Hawkins or Kennedy yet or as quickly, I mention them because they both took time to get going. Weid is the future for the team winning premierships.

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,400]

1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

This really isn't a case of Weid is no good/Weid is good. Or Weid 'haters' 

It also shouldn't be an argument about Weid being out of contract and we need to play him so other clubs don't poach him. For all we know he will declare he wants to go to say Collingwood and is performing poorly now because he knows he will be off next year. Not saying that is the case but it could be....

We all want him to be successful. He really should have shown more consistency by 5 1/2 years. He hasn't performed consistently at Casey even. Yes he is doing some team things. Well that surely is a minimum of what you'd expect. But ultimately he is there to kick goals and he isn't doing that.

The fact is we have a Coleman winning goal kicker in the wings. A proven goal kicker. Yes he's older and probably not the same as he was 3 or 4 years ago but its a valid opinion to say Weid needs to go back and get confidence at Casey and Play BB in the meantime.

 

Great post.

[Queanbeyan Demon 6,859]

On 6/4/2021 at 10:46 PM, adonski said:

Has no confidence at the moment. Ton of talent though, I really do hope it clicks, but Brown might be in a couple of weeks if Weid doesn't start performing pretty quickly.

Evidence?

[Axis of Bob 11,836]

1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

For all we know he will declare he wants to go to say Collingwood and is performing poorly now because he knows he will be off next year. Not saying that is the case but it could be....

I know this is ridiculous, but could you tell me what Weideman's rationale would be for this? 

[spirit of norm smith 16,478]

Weid is ready to breakthrough. This is his week. I think he will FINALLY take those marks, crash those packs and kick those goals. 
 

If not, we will have to say he’s had 5 weeks and then (after the bye) try Brown for 4-5 weeks. 

[Queanbeyan Demon 6,859]

On 6/5/2021 at 8:02 AM, bingers said:

Stating the obvious, but he drops too many marks, and missed gettable shots for goal.

I remember that Hawkins was similar in his first few seasons. A real whipping boy. But he turned it round after a few seasons. I was hopeful that Sam could do the same thing, but it just hasn't happened.

Cameron Mooney likened Sam to Hawkins and Nathan Ablett, i.e. has has been doing his job. 

Woo wee . . . speechless. 

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,400]

As good as the start to our season has been if we don’t win a flag it means close to nothing, what we would be able to salvage is that we know our best is good enough to beat anyone, also that Richmond and Geelong are closer to the end of their window and ours has just opened. But it would be hard not to see this year as a missed opportunity if we don’t achieve the ultimate. We only need to look at the Adelaide game to see how easy things can go the other way regardless of who we may beaten have before.

If Brown or any other player for that matter makes us as little as 1% better they must come in. There’s can be no more room for feel good story’s, Jones got his 300th on a night of timely occasion but that’s it, are to we believe that he might get a late call up should we make the GF, a fitting way (should we win) for him to end his career.

The justification as to why Weid should not make way for Brown is almost laughable considering the modern history of our club. 

Edited June 7, 2021 by Bombay Airconditioning

[maximum bob 462]

Here's a bit of a left field/loopy idea. We're not short of tall forwards now that TMac has reinvented himself and we have some cover currently playing at Casey. Weid or BB, who's the keeper? Essendon are crying out for a designated full forward now that Daniher has left for the Lions. Trade one or the other directly for Zach Merrett for the icing on the cake. He'd love it at Melbourne. Get the Melbourne Grammar boys back together... Merrett, Spargo, May.

Edited June 7, 2021 by maximum bob
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