GAMEDAY: Rd 07 vs Hawthorn

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,825]

2 hours ago, binman said:

Agree with both points.

A frustration for me in the first three games is that we played so far below what i know we are capable off. Were a good side. Certainly beter than Geelong in my opinion. 

As i have noted many times our key weakness is not having enough above average and elite kicks and too many poor kicks (watching the suns yesterday i have to say i was impressed with how many really good kicks they have). But that is as it is.

And Harley, Kozzie (who has the modern skill of weighting kicks to space) and even Hannan (who hit a couple of perfect kicks last week) all help improve our kicks inside 50.

As others have noted, almost as big an issue is decision making but that has much more scope for improvement, as we saw last week. Good coaching last week from goody who brought in good decision makers and got the team to slow things down (apparently our lowest percentage of play ons from marks since 2015). 

But with decision making i really believe a big part of it relates to confidence: in the game plan, each other and individually.

With the game plan, they had to adjust last year as the massive up and down the ground flooding of other sides (and our lack of fitness) that became the norm severely disrupted our preferred game plan. And this is  an even bigger factor this year with 16 minute quarters and teams not tiring meaning they can keep their flood up till the siren. We tried to to beat this through playing on at all costs, but except for the first quarter against the blues it hasn't worked.

Personally i think a combination of the two styles we have employed this year is the go. The key is knowing when to implement each style. Which is where confidence is so important.

Goody has to get them into a head space where they are not worrying about losing, which feels to me they have been for 18 months.  Which has meant they often seem to have a passive, defensive mind set married to an aggressive game plan.

In the second half of 2018 they played without fear of losing and collectively and individually played much more freely. The game has changed in a short time so they need to adjust but they can still find that same mojo - and there is still a place for their contest out, high pressure game. That style is built for finals as comprehensively shown last year by the tigers.

Goody should encourage them to go for it. Trust in each other and themselves. Take that kick to the corridor on. Be aggressive when it is called for. But smart and patient when it isn't (which is where defence can become attack).

A funny thing about this year is teams seem to scoring goals in clumps and whilst momentum has always been important in footy it feels like it is eve more important this year., perhaps as function of the scores being lower. Having two speeds and the skill and on field chemistry to implement them at the right time is really important now and that is the challenge for this coaching staff and team.

A fascinating element of the game will be the tactical battle.  A good chance for goody to silence some critics.

Won't be surprised if the hawks go against script early and attack. If so we need to be ready. If they jump us we need to stop their momentum with tempo footy. If they don't and we get on top early we need to put our foot down and put score board pressure on them. Get four goals up and they can chip, hold and flood all they like.

With their uber flood we need to make sure we risk turnovers and go for our angle kicks, take on the corridor and cross to the fat side when needed. Be patient.

I can't see Clarkson giving us so many kicks inside 50 to a free man in the corridor like the Suns did (i thought Goody out coached dew with this) but we need to keep looking for them and try to engineer them.

And i have feeling the hub environment will help all of these elements come together. As Whispering Jack notes in the first post in this thread this is very important game. And as you note josh we are a four goal better than the Hawks and we need to show that today.  

Great post Binman and I agree with much if not all of the above.

The other important changes which we implemented last week that I think are important are the structural changes with O Mac down back and the second tall / Weid up forward (not that we actually had the second tall for 3/4, so probably more Oscar down back). 

Similaly, he may not have had many possessions, but AVB was huge plus for our forward pressure with his numerous bone crunching tackles.  I actually think AVB is a real on feild leader for the level of physicality we play with, pulls up those around him to rise to similar levels of pressure and makes those around him stand taller.  After a few games at the top level, I think AVB is now cherry ripe again and  wouldn't surprise me to see his output and impact on games steadily rise over comming weeks, starting with this game against Hawthorn. 

Contrast this to our restart when we went in with a very inexperienced J Smith destabilizing our back six and a forward 50 that was also all over the place.  I do think we need to blood some of these younger players, but it becomes much more viable to do that within a side that's more stable, predictable and when team confidence is good.

This is a game that we should win.

Edited July 19, 2020 by Rodney (Balls) Grinter

[Diamond_Jim 12,588]

Assuming a loss against Brisbane this is pretty well our season defining game.

If we lose the next two we will 2-5.

Assuming you need 9 games to make the eight we would need to maintain a 70% win rate from there on in or in other words a 7-3 winning record.

That Geelong loss really screwed us.

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,825]

28 minutes ago, old dee said:

Nothing is ever " just methodical work" at the MFC. We make hard work of the easiest game. 

I actually think we got close to it in 2018.  That season we put away almost all of the bottom teams we needed to beat and really only had a couple of major slip-ups against St Kilda and Sydney.  Even the top teams often have one or two slip-up when they are upset by a lower side.  We just hadn't put away enough of the top teams along the way in 2018 to have the tolerance to loosing the odd game but still finishing top 4.

To me 2018 showed that the core of the team have the mental toughness and capacity to be a genuine finals contender.  It's consistently beating or at least breaking even 50/50 against top 4/8 teams along the way that will mark the next step in our progression.

[Hellaintabadplacetobe 4,294]

Only 3 people that concern me. 

Sicily.... Need to get into his head early so he loses his focus. (Melksham may have a role here and doesn't mind the niggle.)

I Smith..... How many times has he either set up line breaking goals or bounced 2,3 times before goaling himself against us for a decade. 

Clarkson.... Heat turned up on Hawks all week will have him salivating.

Over to you Simon.

[spirit of norm smith 16,459]

53 minutes ago, Maldonboy38 said:

I both teams play near their best, we are a 3-4 goal better team. Within this context I have 2 concerns:

1. We can be flaky, and give up 4-5 goals in a row without responding.
2. Clarkson is possible the best coach I have seen. He could coach any team to a win, and is rarely beaten in game-day coaching. 

I am looking forward to Jackson and Weideman playing together, with Kozzie at their feet, and Melksham, Hannan and Fritsch being creative around them. 

Yes agree with point 1. We do always seem to find ways to give up soft goals.  

[picket fence 17,169]

4 hours ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

Win and get the four points, lose and get no points. Make no mistake. 

This could be a Draw!!

[Bitter but optimistic 22,240]

Just now, picket fence said:

This could be a Draw!!

Nil all ?

[old dee 23,791]

8 minutes ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

I actually think we got close to it in 2018.  That season we put away almost all of the bottom teams we needed to beat and really only had a couple of major slip-ups against St Kilda and Sydney.  Even the top teams often have one or two slip-up when they are upset by a lower side.  We just hadn't put away enough of the top teams along the way in 2018 to have the tolerance to loosing the odd game but still finishing top 4.

To me 2018 showed that the core of the team have the mental toughness and capacity to be a genuine finals contender.  It's consistently beating or at least breaking even 50/50 against top 4/8 teams along the way that will mark the next step in our progression.

Our delivery back then was poor and has not improved. It does not matter how often you get the ball if you turn it over constantly with poor kicking. Teams have woke to us since 2018 and most weeks beat us with  a revised game plan because they know exactly we will fail with poor kicking. 

Edited July 19, 2020 by old dee

[old dee 23,791]

4 minutes ago, Bitter but optimistic said:

Nil all ?

Big chance Bbo.

[McQueen 17,864]

I have a feeling Viney will go mental today and be BOG. 

[JTR 2,846]

1 hour ago, old dee said:

Agree with most of that Binman except the first para. We did not best the cats so we are not better than them. The only measure that matters is winning or losing. 

There wouldn't be any such thing as an "upset" if that was the case.

Edited July 19, 2020 by JTR
edit - not saying that particular result was/was not an upset, but fact remains that despite how we played (and how we let them play), we'd have still won had Tomlinsons kick gone a bit further to the right.

[John Crow Batty 8,863]

1 hour ago, Lord Nev said:

Not nearly as confident as any of you tbh.

Last week was our 'line in the sand' game, this week's it's the Hawks one. Would be very typical Melbourne for us to still be enjoying the bath water from last week so much that we don't get up for this one. That, plus having Clarko in the opposite box after a week of him copping it; certainly does not put me at ease.

Today tells us a lot about whether 'To Hell & Back' was filled with platitudes by paycheck collectors or genuine footballers and coaches who not only know what it takes to win, but will do what it takes to win.

 

The learning experience from quite a few of our ‘line in the sand games’ does not seem to last long.  We have done this ad nauseum after previous media roastings then reverting to same old bad habits. I hope we don’t get dorked again. Hawthorn is the type of club that will put us back in our place if we aren’t fair dinkum.

Edited July 19, 2020 by america de cali

[Little Goffy 14,546]

3 hours ago, Clint Bizkit said:

Expect to see lots of inside 50’s only for the ball to come straight back out again.

 

And then back in again, if it is Frost rebouding!   Records could be broken!

Meanwhile, truly superb weather up here in Sydney. Just a few wispy high clouds and a sky that is the palest blue that it gets. Soft sun, not too hot and no real chill either.  The proverbial perfect day for football.

The tactic which has brought Melbourne undone repearedly this season is opposition teams calmly, patiently chipping the ball around to work their way up the ground and take the heat out of out intense play-on style.  Hawthorn have been trying to use that tactic all season but it hasn't been up to scratch for them. If we're wise enough, alert enough and disciplined enough to keep closing in on them to exploit the little mistakes then we will get multiple goals from those turnovers and the effect of the 'chip chip' will be to actually increase pressure and panic on them, rather than decrease it.

About six hours from now we should be knocking on the door to the eight with positive percentage, a game in hand and rediscovered momentum.

And that warm glow reserved for knowing you've just broken Hawthorn's season for the second time in three years!

[In Harmes Way 7,783]

55 minutes ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

If both teams play at their best, it’s a 50/50 game that either team could win. 

You’re a pearl of wisdom today Ethan

can you pls write a book The Art of War (AFL based), I’d spend good money on that 

[Rednblueriseing 824]

Go the mighty Dees today will be season defining must win.

Dees by 28, Tracc BOG With 25 and 3 snags

[old dee 23,791]

19 minutes ago, JTR said:

There wouldn't be any such thing as an "upset" if that was the case.

I think you have missed my point. If you don't beat a team you are not better than them. The score board says it all.

[binman 42,970]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

Hannah was massive in last quarter last week, seems to have a knack of boning up when needed. 

[old dee 23,791]

56 minutes ago, Hell Bent said:

Only 3 people that concern me. 

Sicily.... Need to get into his head early so he loses his focus. (Melksham may have a role here and doesn't mind the niggle.)

I Smith..... How many times has he either set up line breaking goals or bounced 2,3 times before goaling himself against us for a decade. 

Clarkson.... Heat turned up on Hawks all week will have him salivating.

Over to you Simon.

They have won one of those 3 already HB.

[Tom Dyson 1,633]

I do consider myself an optimist but i'm slightly worried today. 

every club that has had heavy media scrutiny throughout a given week has so far this year responded with a strong win against their oppo's.

Richmond, collingwood, melbourne, west-coast, hawthorn have all responded to media criticism. (there might be more but i can't think of them) 

Hawthorn have gone through the ringer this week in the press and in the media and i think it might be cause for concern. 

as we did against gold coast, they could come out really hard and pull our pants down. 

Clarkson rarely lets them lose badly two times in a row. 

in saying all that, i still think we have picked close to our best team and we look to be finding some form. 

[JTR 2,846]

12 minutes ago, old dee said:

I think you have missed my point. If you don't beat a team you are not better than them. The score board says it all.

On the day sure. 

Not overall though, which was my point and what I think binman was getting at with his comment re us being a better side than Geelong.

[Josh 1,420]

13 minutes ago, binman said:

[old dee 23,791]

Just now, JTR said:

On the day sure. 

Not overall though, which was my point and what I think binman was getting at with his comment re us being a better side than Geelong.

So much of what fans talk ( including me) is based on over rating the players in the team we follow. We over rate players who get the ball a lot but under rated the cost of poor delivery resulting in turn overs and games lost. If majority of the time you miss kick that results in a turn over you are IMO a poor player. Poor players don't win games.

[Satyriconhome 10,878]

Wow 5 pages and still just under 3 hours to go

If we turn up and play slightly better than last week for 4 qtrs, we may win

If we play like we did against Richmond, we lose

Not worried, pessimistic, optimistic, don't gamble

May just watch the game

[binman 42,970]

2 minutes ago, old dee said:

So much of what fans talk ( including me) is based on over rating the players in the team we follow. We over rate players who get the ball a lot but under rated the cost of poor delivery resulting in turn overs and games lost. If majority of the time you miss kick that results in a turn over you are IMO a poor player. Poor players don't win games.

Im not sure that holds true on demonland old dee. And I certainly wouldn't put you in the over rating players camp.

Some might argue that 2018 was an aberration. We'll get a better idea after thus season about that. But that argument diminshes the fact that it is impossible to fluke making a preliminary final. 

That team had good players and we have improved the list since. So we plenty of good players. Good enough to won a flag? Im not sure, but in our best 22 thete are no poor players.

[ding 5,126]

Was gonna write a poem,

But i really cant be stuffed.

They will likely play the tough guy, 

and hope they have us bluffed.

 

We often fade post half time,

and play like on the bong.

but today we'll come out firing,

and maintain it all game long.

 

I really think its time that

the MFC stood tall.

Forget the Mr nice-guy

lets grab 'em by the balls

 

MFC by 4 goals.

 

GO DEES !!!