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Deefective

What is missing to win a flag?

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2 hours ago, faultydet said:

Need a superstar of the game. 

We currently have ZERO players who can be called that, but several who i believe are capable of rising to that level.

We have a great list age profile. Just takes several of your best to have career best seasons at the same time to elevate this list to flag capable, and a superstar to put it over the top in those clinch moments

A good run with injuries, and a dose of long overdue luck.

1 might not be enough anymore either but I agree. Need a genuine undisputed top 3 in the comp player. THEN add Gawn, Oliver, Petracca, May, Lever et cetera

 

We need a Brownlow medalist ON TOP of what we have to be considered anything more than just a finals team.

 

A bit humbling actually

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Rocky said:

Need to have someone that will outright intimidate the opposition. Someone that would kill an opponent as soon as look at them. Above all else, a team of players that will support any team mate being monstered by an opponent and back them 100%

 

1 hour ago, Rocky said:

i thought that was meant to be may's job..

No,  not Mayo's job.

 

1 hour ago, pineapple dee said:

Need to have someone that will outright intimidate the opposition. Someone that would kill an opponent as soon as look at them. Above all else, a team of players that will support any team mate being monstered by an opponent and back them 100%

You mean someone like Dermie, and Ayers/Dipper,  in the Hawks teams.

Or, someone like Keating, and Brown/Lynch,  in the Matthews/Lions teams.  And add the Scott twins, at ground level,  not to forget mPike.

Edited by MyFavouriteMartian

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We have depth now. Our current injuries are to fringe players only. 
The list is now super fit with minimal surgeries. Thanks burgo 

The talent is on the list. Agree with previous posts that a genuine forward (ala Hogan) is still required, although Tmac Brown and Wied are capable on their day  

The last piece of the puzzle I see are the coaches. We have changed a few of the coaches in the off season but I couldn’t recognize a different game style in the Marsh series.
This is where I believe games will be won and lost. We need the coaches to educate the leaders of the playing group when to increase the tempo, when slow the game and when stand in the throat of the opponent. We also need tactical changes in the box to combat those of the opposing coaches boxes. In the past other coaches have changed the game with their decisions at qtr time yet we continue to play one dimensional. 

I hope goody richo and Matthews can step up. 

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Proven goal kickers. Sadly lacking at this current time. 

Hopefully we can get this from Fritsch, Kozzie and Weid over the next period of time. We need it. 

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3 hours ago, Leoncelli_36 said:

David King just sunk the boots into us on 360. Basically reckon we’ve got nothing to look forward to and can do little to turn our fortunes around.

Thank goodness for that.

Kingy has a really poor record with his preseason tips.

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2 hours ago, Clint Bizkit said:

No.

See i knew that, and yet somehow i still posted it 🤪🤪🤪

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I think we’ve got the cattle to challenge particularly with the wingers now and May and Lever down back. A fit list, a game style that when it works should produce winning margins and a team that (on the small sample) is one of real last quarter stamina. 

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4 hours ago, Deefective said:

On the brink of 2020 the Dees may again make the 8 but nobody (except Cam Mooney) expects us to win a flag. What is lacking in the side in terms of players

It'll take us at least 2 seasons,  of learning to beat the top teams regularly,  and back to back wins.   A couple of seasons to have this develop into our team and mentality,  and systems of play.

This in-turn will be handed down to our young players coming thru,  as a normalised and expected doctrine of winning...  This is the launching pad for us.   That plateau between our old brigade of players,  and our very young players, just starting out.

Its this 2nd tier of our list,  which I believe will take hold of the baton on-top that plateau,  and begin our charge up remainder of that hill,  to go all the way with it, and drink from that Cup.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Lord Nev said:

That's strange coming from King given he said Lever and May could completely change the way we play this year and said Petracca could go to a new level.

 

Very strange also considering last year he tipped us for the flag stating we "Lacked nothing."
I think we probably lost Hogan since.
Couldn't take him seriously then and even less now.
 

Edited by Fork 'em
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While at the moment prior to 2020 we appear to be short of at least 3 top players or superstars To add to Gawny dnd Clsrry.

We need Trac to elevate as he appears ready to do. In addition we need May and Lever to have near season best form.

Our forward line needs greater reliability with the advantage  of multiple goal kickers. Also Tommy Mac to be a consistent 50 plus goal kicker as in 2018 and two of Petty Fritsch Milkshake Brown or Weideman to be 30 plus. Have enough confidence in a number of small forwards to get between 35 and 30 goals.

in addition I believe Petracca will elevate his game even if playing in the midfield to approx 30 goals as our midfield needs to contribute.

Many if our 23 to 18 year olds in addition are in the big improve category and 24 to 28 as the best footy career stage.

Luck and few injuries are the final  stage and with the easy draw this year a top4  position is totally possible and opens up the doors that have not been a reality since 2000 or our glory years.

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Killer instinct and luck with injuries.

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Leoncelli_36 said:

Mark McClure and David King just sunk the boots into us on 360. Basically reckon we’ve got nothing to look forward to and can do little to turn our fortunes around. McClure hates us with a passion, does anyone know why? He bashes our club at every opportunity. Can’t stand the bloke

That segment was a mess. MacClures hard [censored] act is neither funny nor relevant anymore and certainly doesnt do a good job of disguising that he knows very little about the game. Its a joke that they cant find someone with some insight and depth to dissect the teams each week. 

To be fair, i think ridiculing our worst ever conversion of inside 50s ratio stat and finding us untrustable is fair enough. I dont know why they need to keep repeating the obvious, that goodwin will be sacked if things dont go well. Just surface level observations.

The contrasting bullishness for NM and Rhys Shaw was even more absurd. 

Whats next on 360? Dunstal and Derm right?

A real tired selection of ex footballers. I think ill tape it and fast forward through the chaff for the rest of the year.

Edited by John Demonic
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8 hours ago, MyFavouriteMartian said:

It'll take us at least 2 seasons,  of learning to beat the top teams regularly,  and back to back wins.   A couple of seasons to have this develop into our team and mentality,  and systems of play.

This in-turn will be handed down to our young players coming thru,  as a normalised and expected doctrine of winning...  This is the launching pad for us.   That plateau between our old brigade of players,  and our very young players, just starting out.

Its this 2nd tier of our list,  which I believe will take hold of the baton on-top that plateau,  and begin our charge up remainder of that hill,  to go all the way with it, and drink from that Cup.

Agree in principle, but I'm impatient, so I say the winning with consistently starts now.  2018 and perversely 2019 were our learning years.  In my view, the age, experience and talent profile of the club is now at a point where we should be seriously be competing for a flag each and every season we set foot on the park (pending endemic injury riddled seasons).

As you point out, seriously competing for a flag means winning consistently and against the best teams, with the implications of finishing top 4.  Consistenty just  aiming at and making finals won't translate into a flag.

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Consistent goal kickers. 

I believe on GF day even teams without a strong forward can win, but to get to the GF without one, is very hard.

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Unpopular opinion to offload at the beginning of the season, but although so many players have gotten themselves in a much-improved physical (and hopefully mental) state for this season, I still can’t see Goodwin taking our team to a GF. A lot of people here thought it was highly commendable that he admitted to getting so many things wrong last year. I was very much unmoved by it. I don’t see why the guy deserves plaudits for recognising the bleeding obvious. After watching the docu-series, I was no less convinced that he’s not the guy who’s gonna do it. 
 

And yes, a spearhead forward. Though that could be Fritter this year (it won’t be TMac)!!

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Posted (edited)

I honestly think it's a mindset, system and application thing from here.  The team just has to get good at always finding a way to win, even games that we shouldn't because of poor form, injuries etc.  One hall mark of the Hawthorn teams in their eras of success is that they rarely, if ever lost three weeks in a row and I think that gets you a good part of the way there.

Similarly, I know coaches always play down the importance of winning round 1 (probably mostly the ones that regularly loose Rd 1), but I really do think that's a bit of a misnomer.  To finish top 4, teams can only loose 4, maybe 5 - 6 games within a season.  To me that says that the team needs to be winning every 4 out of 5  or 5 out 6 games.  Loosing in round 1 puts the team on the back foot from the start and always playing catch-up to finish in a strong ladder position. 

Playing catch-up means the team has to take more risks injury wise towards the back end of the season as opposed to being in a position to manage players for a good finals series.  Classic cases of teams who's strong mid season ladder position enabled them to better manage their lists for a solid attack on a premiership were West Coast in 2018 and the Tigers in 2019.

For as long as I've followed them, the MFC haven't been able to put together a consistent  well controlled approach to consistently stringing together wins over the course of the season to position us appropriately for a genuine attack on a flag - we've had the superstar tallent, but it's the consistency, system and management over an entire season that wins you flags.

Edited by Rodney (Balls) Grinter
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12 hours ago, Josh said:

1 might not be enough anymore either but I agree. Need a genuine undisputed top 3 in the comp player. THEN add Gawn, Oliver, Petracca, May, Lever et cetera

 

We need a Brownlow medalist ON TOP of what we have to be considered anything more than just a finals team.

 

A bit humbling actually

I agree

I think our list is thereabouts but it's missing 1 maybe even 2 genuine stars who can break a game apart like Martin or Dangerfield. 

I understand these players don't grow on trees but that's just the reality. 

Otherwise we need another clone of Bayley Fritsch or Trac - these two are so important. They both have to have big years for us to play finals 

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The recent state of origin games were a good indication of what we need to be considered really top class.

How many players did we have that were required by Dimma and Horse?

We do not have one player that would be considered the best in the league in their given position. Max is in the conversation and that's it.

Plenty are better than average, but we don't have anyone that will win us a game by themselves ala Dusty, Danger, Fyfe etc

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We need a speedy, running CHB with mongrel. This player must be an interceptor, a feeder and physically very tough as well. A Steven Icke-type, who plays like Gary Hardeman could. 

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1 minute ago, Deemania since 56 said:

We need a speedy, running CHB with mongrel. This player must be an interceptor, a feeder and physically very tough as well. A Steven Icke-type, who plays like Gary Hardeman could. 

Physically tough is always a bonus but I don't think think it's a priority. 

We have a plethora of these. 

To be honest, we probably need someone who isn't as physical, almost hangs off the pack but can hit players lace out, particularly i50. 

A Lachie Whitfield type would be a dream. 



 

 

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15 hours ago, Demonised said:

No injuries.

By any objective measure, this more closely aligns with success than any other. If Richmond and St. Kilda maintain their current injury status (zero), they will finish top 4. We’re much better placed than last year, but need to reduce our ‘unavailable’ list further. She is, however, a long season. 

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15 hours ago, Leoncelli_36 said:

Mark McClure and David King just sunk the boots into us on 360. Basically reckon we’ve got nothing to look forward to and can do little to turn our fortunes around. McClure hates us with a passion, does anyone know why? He bashes our club at every opportunity. Can’t stand the bloke

Because he’s a Carlton supporter and a whinger. I turn the radio onto another station when he’s on.

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King & McClure are simply looking at history and using that to base a projection moving forward which is fair and reasonable.

We had few list changes and are running back effectively the same group that struggled last year and a coaching staff/club who botched the 2019 preseason and a coaches box who where devoid of ideas so plenty of reasons to think it'll be more of the same for the dee's.

 

I think we'll improve this year and bounce back but don't blame outsiders for there views on the club as history has proven the naysayers correct! 

 

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Posted (edited)

FWIW, AFL Computer models - aggregated here by Squiggle predict us finishing 15th (13th - 16th) with 9 wins (8-10 wins).

https://squiggle.com.au/ladder/

The "colour bar" on the RHS - the size of the "block" represents the likelihood the team will finish in that position.

Top 4 = 5%, Top 8 = 19%, Bottom 4 = 37%

You can click on each team to see the detailed prediction of each model.

I'm not buying what they're selling but is that because I have more detailed knowledge of the MFC situation or because I'm an overly optimistic supporter?

Edited by Fifty-5

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I don't think we're missing a superstar.

I think we just need to see what happens when this team finds health and consistency.

If we build a consistent game style and effort each week with continuity of our best 22 playing each week I think we could be anything.

In short... We're missing that moment when things click (ala Richmond a few years back)

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