Can we make it back from here? When do we call our season cooked?

[chook fowler 19,459]

18 minutes ago, hemingway said:

The result will not matter so much as the way we play. We can lose several more games and still make it, but how we play tonight and over the next few weeks will give us the answer.  

Agree to a certain extent Ernest but there are so many other teams on the up that it's hard to see a way back from 4-0

[hemingway 7,627]

15 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

However Ernest should we continue losing then our demise is surer than the RMS Titanic........ there'd be no ice-ing this cake

Hmmm. That's very descriptive. 

Like the Titanic our list undoubtedly has holes in it.

Some of those holes are due to injury. AVB, May, Lever and the walking wounded TMac, Viney etc, and also those recovering from off season surgery. 

Will we see these players return to the team this season and/or be able to attain match fitness and form ?

We desperately need them back but we need them fit and in form. 

[old dee 23,791]

57 minutes ago, chook fowler said:

Agree to a certain extent Ernest but there are so many other teams on the up that it's hard to see a way back from 4-0

I find it very difficult to see a way back from 0-3.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

2 hours ago, beelzebub said:

We're not cooked...but we're on the grill.

Rare, med-rare, medium, well-done ??

Quite frankly I'd be encouraged to see some basics accomplished...maybe string 2 qtrs together.

The season ??  We'd not only have to win one game but suddenly string a whole bunch together.

Sorry just fanciful rubbish at this point.

BB you are certainly unconventional at times ....but you are also a realist. 

Only 2 quarters you say!?  Have to agree ...better than one!  

[FireInTheBennelly 4,072]

If we lose tonight we'd need to go on long winning streaks which we generally haven't been able to do for many years. I can't see it happening, but stranger things.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,834]

We're cooked if we lose tonight.

Even if we scrap a win over St Kilda, we'll be outclassed by Richmond (who may have Cotchin and Jack back) and then be 1-5. Nobody's coming back from 1-5...yeah I know Sydney did it at 0-6 but that's a once in a life time occurrence.

[640MD 3,376]

I like this thread,   far more realistic....

Not cooked...yet... and if we are, a few other fancied teams are as well,  Been some unexpected results.

I had thought we were "underdone" but expected a far better result than Zip 3,

Zip 4  and I will book a trip away in September.

With the results so far its clear I think that it will be a very interesting season. Percentage very important and we have stuffed that part.   There are no easy games for any side.  We need our best 22,  we have stuff all ability as depth, too many injured or coming back, some just not performing and sadly a couple past their "best by date" but no one good enough to usurp them.

Other clubs have similar problems with injuries and depth. Sadly Eagles and Collingwood don't seem as affected,

Come on Dees win tonight and we will all feel much better in the morning.

[praha 11,240]

think we should prepare for heartbreak tonight.

this isn't just a team out of form: it is struggling to find a comfort zone, a confident ability to adapt under pressure on a consistent basis. 

If we had, say, won our first game but lost 2, I'd be more confident. But three in a row the way we lost, plus the preseason...there is just something not right atm and it may take 7-8 weeks to right the ship.

2019 feels far more like 2007 than it does 2006. That said we have more upside than in 2007 but I feel we are more likely to be 0-8 than 4-4 or 3-5, which we will need to be in order to be a realistic chance to play finals. 2007 quickly lost hope after so much promise and the team couldn't get started.

this isn't MFCSS. it's me being as objective as possible. We just don't look "right" atm.

happy to be proven wrong.

Edited April 11, 2019 by praha

[58er 6,440]

5 hours ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

Whilst I was personally never in the camp of expecting that the MFC would sail through to a grand final birth with ease this year, it would be a huge understatement to say that I've been disappointed in our performances so far this season. 

Putting the disapointment of going zip and three so far asides, I'm not yet prepared to say we are cooked. Looking for reasons without trying to stray into the area of excuses, our preseaon preperation was rubbish and I think that has had a clear impact on our system and perhaps even fitness levels nessacery to complete in the modern game.  We were hit with a number of injuries to key players like AVB, Hannan, Lewis, J Smith, Garlett, May on the cusp of the season that has significantly impacted our game style and particularly our ability to score. If I try to look less emotionally at our performances to date, Geelong game asides, we have been in compeditive positions against two potential top 8 sides, whilst playing some of the worst football in the club's recient history.  Despite what the statistics say, we currently sit just two games/8 premiership points outside the top 8 and only 4 games behind mooted top 4 aspirants Collingwood and Richmond. Whilst I don't see much of a future for our season playing at the level we have been, I really struggle to see how we could play that badly for the entire season. 

If we can correct the defensive issues that have plagued our season to date, I still see pleanty of opportunity for us to build our season once we are playing a much better brand of football and hopefully start getting much closer to a full list to pick from.  I think we have a more mature list than many of the teams presently over achieving as well as one a younger one than teams loaded with old fossils like Hawthorn (and possibly Collingwood - thinking of Sidebottom and Pendlbry), both of which could drop away as the season progresses.  i.e. it could possibly get worse, but will more likely get better for us from here.

I refuse to accept the utter pessimism and negativity surrounding our team and individuals within it.  Even if we ultimately end up missing finals this season, I'm still hopeful that we can use it as a season to keep building into the future ...but I'm not at that point yet.

CARN THE MIGHTY DEMONS!!!

Agree completely Balls 

[watchtheeyes 1,420]

3 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I havent stuck a fork in us yet but i have already set the table ready to go.

To be honest, it probably won't be a bad thing if this year is a write off for us. Here is my reason why:

- Lever and May will be able to play some games out together towards the end of the year with then rolling into pre season fit and ready to do a whole summer of training together. Round 1 next year a fit May and Lever are ready to go.

- We start pre season early and half our list wont need end of year surgeries. So the likes of Oliver, Viney, Jones, Melksham, Hannan, Harmes etc hit the ground running and complete a full pre season.

- Potential early 1st round draft pick which we will hopefully use on a outside running gun midfielder. Need more depth in our midfield.

- Hopefully an overhaul of our list. Clear deadwood the likes of Tim Smith, JKH, Keilty, Maynard who have just hung around too long for little impact.

- Guys like Weideman and Fritsch will start next year close to the 50 game mark. Both huge talents who will be much better players next year.

- Guys like Brayshaw, Harmes, Petracca Oliver, Salem will be closing in on 90 games start of next year also.

Something to definitely work with for sure going into next year.

I actually reckon we could really use JKH right now.. Had a feeling he was going to have a big year. He was really showing something late last year!

[SPC 3,549]

I think we are already cooked.. just tonight’s lost will confirm it as mathematically near impossible to have a meaningful shot at finals 

[beelzebub 23,376]

12 minutes ago, SPC said:

I think we are already cooked.. just tonight’s lost will confirm it as mathematically near impossible to have a meaningful shot at finals 

Alas... probably my thoughts as well.

Do we get back up off the canvas....only to get whacked again later...or just lay there defeated.

Would take a miracle to get anywhere near our hoped for September glory now.

I just don't see us as having the list, the lust or ability to last. Lest we have a different plan it's all but lost.

Edited April 11, 2019 by beelzebub

[At the break of Gawn 4,460]

I’m not sure if we lose tonight we’ll be absolutely done, given our history at the SCG and our history against the Swans. It may bee too insurmountable. 

However, if we don’t beat the Saints next week then it’ll be absolutely done. I see next week as our most season defining game.

[beelzebub 23,376]

Somehow reminded of Monty Python... it's only a flesh wound !!!

[ding 5,126]

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

53 minutes ago, At the break of Gawn said:

I’m not sure if we lose tonight we’ll be absolutely done, given our history at the SCG and our history against the Swans. It may bee too insurmountable. 

However, if we don’t beat the Saints next week then it’ll be absolutely done. I see next week as our most season defining game.

and the one after that, and the one after that, and the one after that...

[Wiseblood 24,637]

I'll only concede we can't make finals when it's mathematically not possible.

Until then, we're a chance.

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

It really feels like a year cruelled by injuries and post op rehab in a timeframe that was never going to allow us to get our clear best 22 on the park consistently. 

Onwards to 2020...

[beelzebub 23,376]

29 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

I'll only concede we can't make finals when it's mathematically not possible.

Until then, we're a chance.

Try applying probabilities to the ongoing games. Yeah I know...could change.

Some might to play the simple game of 'if we won enough could we still make it "

The reality is about the likelihood of such outcomes, not the choice of outcomes. 

Currently chances are around Buckley's. Another couple of losses you can then add Nunn to that

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,826]

I honestly feel that if (and from our season to date, it's a BIG if) we can somehow dig deep tonight and beat the Swans on their home deck, then knock off St Kilda next week that with a bit of form and confidence we would be a reasonable prospect of beating Richmond.  From there our season could be back on a reasonable course.  Sounds far out, but stranger things have happened.  I recall us winning one very much against the grain in Adelaide Vs the Crows in 2017 and I think everyone expected us to loose to both West Coast and GWS in the run home last year.

So tonight I watch I hoping, without fully expecting to win, but also that beating the Swans should also be well within the capabilities of the list we have.  It's got to turn at some point doesn't it?

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,826]

8 hours ago, one_demon said:

The old "Two games outside the eight".  That doesn't mean a team wins two games and are in eight.  They have to win two games and teams above them have to lose two games and the percentage also has to be higher.  It's not close.

Yes agree, but over the course of a season it's not a huge gap to peg back either, particularly when you consider that when many of the teams currently above us are yet to play many or any games against quality opposition, playing closer to the first full 17 rounds of the draw should even that up to an extent.

If you were sitting two games and percentage out of the top eight with 6 weeks to play out of the season, that's a position you would very much still give a team in good form a chance of pegging back.

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,826]

7 hours ago, Delusional demon 82 said:

If we win tonight and next week against the saints then we are back where we were after round 5 last year , but still would then require a run of wins . 

lose tonight and then it’s a bridge too far I’m afraid , start preparing for 2020 

If we need 14 wins to comfortably make the eight , then from here we can only afford to drop 5 more games (after round 3) for the rest of the season , when you look at it that way , it’s a pretty daunting task and we’d need to truly be a top 4 form like team from rounds 4-22 to maintain that sort of consistency. Also remembering we still have to play WC, pies and Richmond all twice !!!

And then we would only scrape into the 8 so would need form and a lot of luck with the draw to do any damage in September  

I feel like I’m getting deja vu from the Daniher years 

I certainly agree in those Daniher years we were absolutely a yo yo side, but many other modern teams have also experienced this to a degree, thinking mainly of Hawthorn, Geelong, West Coast and Richmond.  The one thing those teams have achieved that we never did was to stay back up and achieve greater heights after that initial dip.

If this year does turn out to be a flop, the main thing I want us to get out of it is to set us up properly to bounce back so much better and harder for 2020 and beyond.  I don't think I could personally cope with another period of years of mediocrity like we have been it the past and like Port have experienced after their most recient prelim appearance - not bottoming out, but at the same time never being a genuine threat, hovering around those 6 - 12 ladder positions.

[R.I.P. Troy 185]

4 weeks ago

[monoccular 17,430]

Only saw the last quarter and a half - look to have a lot more intensity though opponents still clear too easily out of defence.

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,826]

Not the greatest win, but 4 points is 4 points and something to get the monkey off our back and start building some confidence and system.