Round 21 Non MFC Games

[jnrmac 20,087]

1 hour ago, MSFebey said:

After Burton got off for his bump on Higgins I'm stuffed if I know what they'll do. He didn't raise his elbow so could go either way. If you pause when Saad handballs, Brown was within 5m. Fair bump, play on. Whateley and his agenda calling a "cheap shot." Gerard and his overreactions this year.....

This is my issue... Christian when explaining the May bump on Curnow said that he went past the ball but because the ball was within 5m he was allowed to bump (so long as it wasn't high) - that has never been the interpretation. Once the player has disposed of the ball anything late is illegal. Christian changed the rule interpretation and I said it would come back to bite him.

3 weeks later it has. Brown should argue that that the ball was within 5m (it looked that way on TV) and the bump wasn't high therefore no case to answer.

But i don't think any of us think this is the right interpretation. Yet again the MRP stuffs up what should be a simple determination. I watch with interest.

[Redleg 40,926]

3 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

This is my issue... Christian when explaining the May bump on Curnow said that he went past the ball but because the ball was within 5m he was allowed to bump (so long as it wasn't high) - that has never been the interpretation. Once the player has disposed of the ball anything late is illegal. Christian changed the rule interpretation and I said it would come back to bite him.

3 weeks later it has. Brown should argue that that the ball was within 5m (it looked that way on TV) and the bump wasn't high therefore no case to answer.

But i don't think any of us think this is the right interpretation. Yet again the MRP stuffs up what should be a simple determination. I watch with interest.

After the ball is disposed of by Saad and is about 10 metres away from him and is just about to be caught by Tip-Mc, while Saad is looking at the ball, Nathan Brown takes 3-4 steps and bumps Saad, who didn't see him coming. The bump is illegal and the consequence is a factor. Brown will be suspended  

[SFebes 4,884]

44 minutes ago, Redleg said:

After the ball is disposed of by Saad and is about 10 metres away from him and is just about to be caught by Tip-Mc, while Saad is looking at the ball, Nathan Brown takes 3-4 steps and bumps Saad, who didn't see him coming. The bump is illegal and the consequence is a factor. Brown will be suspended  

And that's another issue, how can Brown pull out of a fair bump at that speed? How does he know whether Saad will kick, handball or keep running. Massive grey areas in the rule and this 5m interpretation has crept in out of nowhere this year, after last year all the talk of protecting the head. Last year if you chose to bump and it was high it was an automatic suspension, this year Christian has allowed the bump, no wonder the players are confused. He'll get suspended no doubt, the media will make sure of that.

Edited August 11, 2018 by MSFebey

[Little Goffy 14,562]

Processing out loud, just trying to work out best results. From a safety-first perspective on the udnerstanding that we beat Sydney. Games of interest to us are -

North v Foosctray.

North only have the 11 wins. Any loss makes it impossible for them to pass us. So if they lose to the Bulldogs on Sunday they cease to be a threat. This also means that only one more team needs to be eliminated from the possibility of passing us, for us to be secure in the 8.

Hawthorn vs Geelong

Geelong are currently on 11 wins. And while their percentage is a bit better than North's, realistically* any loss would prevent them getting to the 14 wins they'd need to pass us. The asterix is a note acknowledging MFCSS.

Hawks play Sydney in rnd23. Thus, after this round, only one of Hawks/Swans can get both wins in the remaining two rounds.

So if Geelong lose, they stop being a threat to us, and if Hawthorn lose then only one of Sydney/Hawks can pass us.

Ergo, therefore, y'know what... if we beat Sydney, it doesn't really matter who wins out of Geelong/Hawthorn because one of the three (Sydney/Hawks/Geelong) won't be able to pass us, which means our lowest credible* result is 8th. If you are really anxious, then probably the 'best' result is for Hawthorn to smack Geelong and take a slice off their percentage. Even as it is, if Geelong lose to the Hawks by, say, a kick after the siren, then they would still need to be pick up about 150+ points of margin on us in each of the final two rounds.

Collingwood vs Brisbane and Port vs West Coast.

Collingwood play Port in rnd 22. So again, only one of these two can get a full board in the last two rounds. If both lose this round, then one additional team gets added to the 'no threat' category.

 

And for the optimist's perspective, again on the understanding we beat Sydney -

Giants vs Crows

If the Giants manage to fluff this game, then in rnd 23 that 14th win we'd be playing for would guarantee finishing ahead of all of North, Geelong, Sydney, GWS, and one of Port/Collingwood.

Hawks v Geelong

For the optimists a Geelong victory is the preference as this would peg Hawthorn a game and % behind us, meaning that only one more win is necessary to guarantee finishing ahead of them. Which in turn means that the rnd 23 game against the Giants would be playing for a certain top-4 finish.

Collingwood vs Brisbane and Port vs West Coast.

Much the same situation for the optimists as the pessimists. However, if you are feeling really, really optimistic (that we'll win both the final rounds) then you want West Coast to drop this game because that opens up the possibility of a top-2 finish.

 

 

So there it is.

Very simple for the pessimists. A bit more complicated if your heart is still reaching out for top 4 or even the suddenly possible top 2!

I'll be happy for the Hawks to just whack Geelong to put everyone here in a good mood.

[dees189227 12,394]

Roughead a late out for the hawks. 

[Rod Grinter Riot Squad 5,654]

14 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

And for the optimist's perspective, again on the understanding we beat Sydney -

Port vs West Coast.

Much the same situation for the optimists as the pessimists. However, if you are feeling really, really optimistic (that we'll win both the final rounds) then you want West Coast to drop this game because that opens up the possibility of a top-2 finish.

Assuming we can win our final three games, which I believe we can, The is Port beat the Eagles today, we finish second, no ifs or buts. We go into the bye, chock full of confidence with every chance of making it to the big dance

[Demonland 72,210]

Is this good or bad for us?

 

[Diamond_Jim 12,589]

28 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

 

And for the optimist's perspective, again on the understanding we beat Sydney -

Giants vs Crows

If the Giants manage to fluff this game, then in rnd 23 that 14th win we'd be playing for would guarantee finishing ahead of all of North, Geelong, Sydney, GWS, and one of Port/Collingwood.

Hawks v Geelong

For the optimists a Geelong victory is the preference as this would peg Hawthorn a game and % behind us, meaning that only one more win is necessary to guarantee finishing ahead of them. Which in turn means that the rnd 23 game against the Giants would be playing for a certain top-4 finish.

Collingwood vs Brisbane and Port vs West Coast.

Much the same situation for the optimists as the pessimists. However, if you are feeling really, really optimistic (that we'll win both the final rounds) then you want West Coast to drop this game because that opens up the possibility of a top-2 finish.

 

 

So there it is.

Very simple for the pessimists. A bit more complicated if your heart is still reaching out for top 4 or even the suddenly possible top 2!

I'll be happy for the Hawks to just whack Geelong to put everyone here in a good mood.

Great post LG

Optimistically... we win two out of three (lose to WCE).

So assuming that I am barracking for Crows, Hawks, Brisbane and I'm not sure about WCE vPort

Edited August 11, 2018 by Diamond_Jim

[Tom Dyson 1,633]

(Hawthorn vs Geelong) Geelong win is very important, hawthorn have harder run home and so if they lose this and lose to Sydney in the last round, they could possibly miss out, Geelong on the other hand have a very easy run home with their last two games at home against freo and gold coast and will easily make the 8. 

(Gold coast vs Richmond) does not matter but Richmond will probably win

(power vs eagles) eagle win is also very important, port is on 48 with us and we can't catch up to the Eagles so we could possibly pull away from port should they lose. 

(Collingwood vs Brisbane) Brisbane win if possible but doubt it will happen, this is because Collingwood is on the same points as us and has a toughish run home 

(giants vs crows) definitely want the crows to win, crows are unlikely to make the 8 and yet they still have 'belief'. giants are only 2 points ahead so we could also pull ahead of them. 

(north vs bulldogs) we want bulldogs to win but again is unlikely, they are a game outside the 8 although have an easy run home so if the bulldogs win it is all but season over for north. 

(melbourne vs sydney) up the mighty dees! don't need to say much about this game, every MFC fan and player knows what needs to happen here, come on dees! 

(freo vs carlton) does not matter 

very interesting week of football, lets hope some results fall our way this week unlike last week. 

[Tom Dyson 1,633]

40 minutes ago, Demonland said:

Is this good or bad for us?

 

this is very good for us, as I explained in an earlier post, a Geelong win is imperative.  

[GCDee 3,199]

So who is everyone supporting today?

GEEL V HAWKS- positives in both results. I kinda wanna see GEEL miss out on finals but I would also love for us to have another crack at them in September. 

GC V RICH Who cares? 

BRIS V PIES- Cmon lions!!! Huge if they can get up. 

WCE- PORT - I would love some separation from port however a WCE win opens 2nd spot. 

ADELAIDE V GWS- Crows win here again gives us separation from the giants and can really long jam the bottom of the 8. A GWS win puts adelaide out of the question without doubt. Would think I'm supporting ADELAIDE here. 

Loving the final rounds of footy. 

[Sir Why You Little 37,040]

9 minutes ago, Tom Dyson said:

this is very good for us, as I explained in an earlier post, a Geelong win is imperative.  

I want to see Jeelong lose. Not often i wish a Whorethorn win. 

A draw would be great!!

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 4,083]

Have you guys not seen Geelongs final 2 games??? wouldnt be surprised if they got us on percentage, Going on if we are going to win 1 or 2 from our next 3 youd rather geelong win this Hawks game.

[What 18,810]

The dangerous Lions to maul the Pies and put them in serious jeopardy of missing finals as well as giving us a big boost.

Crows beating GWS would be brilliant and it is not unrealistic.  

 

[Tom Dyson 1,633]

Just now, Sir Why You Little said:

I want to see Jeelong lose. Not often i wish a Whorethorn win. 

A draw would be great!!

(Hawthorn vs Geelong) Geelong win is very important, hawthorn have harder run home and so if they lose against Geelong and lose to Sydney in the last round, they could possibly miss out, Geelong on the other hand have a very easy run home with their last two games at home against freo and gold coast. this leads me to believe that Geelong will make the 8 easily provided they win today and Hawthorn could miss out. a draw would be the worst possible scenario, that means both clubs could move ahead of us is we lose, worst possible scenario. 

[Willmoy1947 4,089]

Free Kick total for TWSNBN expected to be around 100 plus last three games, so says writing on spare sweat bands in umpires change rooms.

Get ready for it....AFL have no comment.....

[Sir Why You Little 37,040]

3 minutes ago, Tom Dyson said:

(Hawthorn vs Geelong) Geelong win is very important, hawthorn have harder run home and so if they lose against Geelong and lose to Sydney in the last round, they could possibly miss out, Geelong on the other hand have a very easy run home with their last two games at home against freo and gold coast. this leads me to believe that Geelong will make the 8 easily provided they win today and Hawthorn could miss out. a draw would be the worst possible scenario, that means both clubs could move ahead of us is we lose, worst possible scenario. 

I DON’T WANT JEELONG TO WIN THE LAST 3 GAMES. 

If either club go above the MFC it is because we were not good enough. 

I want to finish Top 4

Sod the rest of the scenarios 

[Little Goffy 14,562]

10 minutes ago, david_neitz_is_my_dad said:

Have you guys not seen Geelongs final 2 games??? wouldnt be surprised if they got us on percentage, Going on if we are going to win 1 or 2 from our next 3 youd rather geelong win this Hawks game.

I was worried enough to test that in the ladder predictor. If Geelong lose today even by a point, they would need to pick up 200+ points margin on us in the final two rounds to make the difference. As in, we lose both our games by ten goals and they win both their games by ten goals.

If Geelong lose today, they are still credible for slipping into the 8 but they are no chance of chasing us down (if we beat Sydney).

[What 18,810]

3 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

I was worried enough to test that in the ladder predictor. If Geelong lose today even by a point, they would need to pick up 200+ points margin on us in the final two rounds to make the difference. As in, we lose both our games by ten goals and they win both their games by ten goals.

If Geelong lose today, they are still credible for slipping into the 8 but they are no chance of chasing us down (if we beat Sydney).

Spot on.  And the more the Hawks win by today the less likely the Cats make up the %, which is already a big mountain to climb.

[dl4e 5,851]

Ablett gets a soft free in front of goal. No goals for hawks in 1st quarter and it hard to win a game of footy with no goals in a quarter ( unless windy )

[layzie 33,811]

Honestly no idea who I want to win this one. The cases for and against either have differences so miniscule that it’s nit worth wasting my energy getting psyched about it. Just bash each other up and get a draw.

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

Hawthorn foot down! Cats rattled big time at the moment. 

[Ethan Tremblay 30,861]

Just switched the game on, what did Ablett do to be boo’d?

[Sir Why You Little 37,040]

1 minute ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

Just switched the game on, what did Ablett do to be boo’d?

Breathing??

[BrisbaneDemon 1,572]

3 minutes ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

Just switched the game on, what did Ablett do to be boo’d?

He got awarded a free kick after being hit high in a marking contest ??‍♂️