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Round 21 Non MFC Games

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Apart from a Demon victory against the Swans, I have high hopes of this rounds results falling our way to assist in shoring up our top 8 spot and there's a few crunch games that will again have a huge bearing on where we will sit come Sunday evening.

A Geelong win over the Hawks is to our benefit although it will bring the Cats into 48 points as well.

An Eagles win over the Power would also benefit us but I can't see that happening without Gaff, Kennedy and Nic Nat.

An upset win by the Lions over the filth would be glorious and at Etihad I think it's real possibility.

Can the Crows shock the Giants in Canberra? Unlikely but it would be great for us.

I'll be barracking hard for the Dogs to defeat North to keep them outside the 8.

So if everything goes to plan, 3rd spot on the ladder beckons but most importantly we put a gap between our challengers.

 

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There is benefit in a Hawthorn win over Geelong.  Means if Freo can shock Geelong the following weekend in Geelong (they do have a good record there), then it's season over for the Cats.

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Cracking weekend on the way, we just need to win and keep winning, there's no win and the rest sorts themselves out.

There's every chance that Port beat the Eagles, Geelong beat Hawks, Giants beat the Crows, Pies beat the Lions and Nth beat the Dogs, which would remove the Crows and the Bombers from the finals equation, but then could lead to the top 8 all having needed 14 wins, with 2 teams on 13 wins missing out.

 

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The high scoring, high flying dynamic Saints with another well deserved Friday night game.

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1 minute ago, Petraccattack said:

The high scoring, high flying dynamic Saints with another well deserved Friday night game.

Amazing ... five games that dramatically shape the 8 and we get a dead rubber in Prime time.

Why am I not surprised

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My brain hurts trying to figure out whats best so can someone smart confirm if the Hawks beat Geelong and we beat Sydney, are we 99% in the finals barring crazy % changes?

my understanding is we don't want Geelong to win as then there is a greater chance of there been many teams on 14 wins and we could miss out on 13 wins even with %

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5 minutes ago, Red and Blue realist said:

Cracking weekend on the way, we just need to win and keep winning, there's no win and the rest sorts themselves out.

 

That's the crux and always has been. [censored] the rest. We are either good enough or we are not.

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1 minute ago, Uncle Fester said:

That's the crux and always has been. [censored] the rest. We are either good enough or we are not.

More so than ever before, there's no falling in at the line this year, earn it or disappoint again.

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2 minutes ago, DubDee said:

My brain hurts trying to figure out whats best so can someone smart confirm if the Hawks beat Geelong and we beat Sydney, are we 99% in the finals barring crazy % changes?

my understanding is we don't want Geelong to win as then there is a greater chance of there been many teams on 14 wins and we could miss out on 13 wins even with %

Depends on what happens with the remaining games, the Hawks have StK and the Swans in their final 2 games, so we could win this week and they lose and we could still finish below them. Ideally we want Port to beat WC so we've still got a chance at finishing top 2 and guaranteed home finals, but lets just win this week first.

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Id rather see the back of Geelong, Port and North Melb so its go Hawks, West Coke and Dogs for me.

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It's imperative Geelong beat Hawthorn. Absolutely imperative.

On the assumption we win 13 games and beat Sydney:

I'd rather Geelong beat Hawthorn.

Yeah sure Geelong will get to 14 wins, but the loser of Hawthorn v Sydney in rd 23 will likely miss the finals on 13 wins.

If Hawthorn beat Geelong, Geelong will still finish higher than us on percentage as they will win their last 2 games by a combined 200 points. Freo and GC are barely VFL/WAFL standard at the moment.

So if Hawthorn beat Geelong and we only win 13 games, the possible ladder could look like this:

RICH 18-4

WCE 16-6

GWS 15-6-1

COLL 15-7

HAWKS 14-8

PORT   14-8

NORTH 14-8

GEEL 13-9

MELB 13-9

 

Edited by Bring-Back-Powell

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9 minutes ago, Red and Blue realist said:

Depends on what happens with the remaining games, the Hawks have StK and the Swans in their final 2 games, so we could win this week and they lose and we could still finish below them. Ideally we want Port to beat WC so we've still got a chance at finishing top 2 and guaranteed home finals, but lets just win this week first.

That's a good point you raise about Port beating the Eagles. If we draw them in a QF in Perth it'll potentially be two trips west within 3 weeks..

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2 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Geelong will catch us on percentage so we may as well have them winning this week and have hawthorn potentially miss the finals.

Wins. maybe. % no chance. This isn't round 5

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12 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

It's imperative Geelong beat Hawthorn. Absolutely imperative.

On the assumption we win 13 games and beat Sydney:

I'd rather Geelong beat Hawthorn.

Yeah sure Geelong will get to 14 wins, but the loser of Hawthorn v Sydney in rd 23 will likely miss the finals on 13 wins.

If Hawthorn beat Geelong, Geelong will still finish higher than us on percentage as they will win their last 2 games by a combined 200 points. Freo and GC are barely VFL/WAFL standard at the moment.

So if Hawthorn beat Geelong and we only win 13 games, the possible ladder could look like this:

RICH 18-4

WCE 16-6

GWS 15-6-1

COLL 15-7

HAWKS 14-8

PORT   14-8

NORTH 14-8

GEEL 13-9

MELB 13-9

 

thanks mate.  I still reckon Geelong wont make the % up though.  they 118% for a reason, not much fire power

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25 minutes ago, Red and Blue realist said:

Depends on what happens with the remaining games, the Hawks have StK and the Swans in their final 2 games, so we could win this week and they lose and we could still finish below them. Ideally we want Port to beat WC so we've still got a chance at finishing top 2 and guaranteed home finals, but lets just win this week first.

i know but Geelong would be below us so we'd make the 8.  *unless cats win by 100pts + both last games

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41 minutes ago, DubDee said:

thanks mate.  I still reckon Geelong wont make the % up though.  they 118% for a reason, not much fire power

It's not as far fetched as you think, Geelong overtaking us on %. See below scenario:

MELBOURNE (13 wins - 9 losses)

Vs Sydney - 100 - 80 win

V's WCE - 80 -100 loss

V's GWS - 80-100 loss

Final percentage - 126.59

 

GEELONG (13-9)

V's Haw - 80-100 loss

V's Freo - 150 - 70 win

V's GC - 150 - 40 win

FInal percentage - 126.84

 

Do you seriousluy want to rely on Freo and GC to put in competetitve efforts at GHMBA stadium when both clubs have already put the cue in the rack? It's better that Geelong win this week and put Hawthorn in jeopardy.

 

 

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1 hour ago, McQueen said:

That's a good point you raise about Port beating the Eagles. If we draw them in a QF in Perth it'll potentially be two trips west within 3 weeks..

But at least you'd get to see a fair bit of our boys Steve, being a Perth boy. 

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I find the two themes of (i) let's pray for a set of outcomes that gets us into the 8 and (ii) let's pray for a (riskier) set of outcomes that works towards us finishing highest possible place on the ladder and going all the way as quite amusing. I'm glass half full.

I hope we have a decent win over Sydney, confirm our place in the finals and then the boys really knuckle down and play finals type football over the next couple of weeks against good opposition and possible opponents, knowing they're in the ballroom and a chance for the big dance if (i) we play good pressure footy, (ii) work hard defensively and (iii) get a fair dose of luck go our way for a change.  

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Richmond v Gold Coast could get ugly this week - the 190 points record in play.

(edited - see post below)

Edited by Fifty-5

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10 minutes ago, small but forward said:

I find the two themes of (i) let's pray for a set of outcomes that gets us into the 8 and (ii) let's pray for a (riskier) set of outcomes that works towards us finishing highest possible place on the ladder and going all the way as quite amusing. I'm glass half full..  

No real risky outcomes wanting us to finish second, it is simple, WC lose this week, we win our final 3 games - we finish 2nd

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IMO the most likely safe path to the 8 with 13 wins:

R21: MFC d Syd
R21: Geel d Haw
R22: Ade d Nth

Then North and the loser of Sydney and Hawthorn in the last round cannot make it no matter what else  happens in R22 and 23.

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