22 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

It's not as far fetched as you think, Geelong overtaking us on %. See below scenario:

MELBOURNE (13 wins - 9 losses)

Vs Sydney - 100 - 80 win

V's WCE - 80 -100 loss

V's GWS - 80-100 loss

Final percentage - 126.59

 

GEELONG (13-9)

V's Haw - 80-100 loss

V's Freo - 150 - 70 win

V's GC - 150 - 40 win

FInal percentage - 126.84

 

Do you seriousluy want to rely on Freo and GC to put in competetitve efforts at GHMBA stadium when both clubs have already put the cue in the rack? It's better that Geelong win this week and put Hawthorn in jeopardy.

 

 

Of course I don't want to rely on those team but if Geelong win there is a pretty likely scenario where you need 14 wins to make the 8. so if games go roughly to script, we have a better chance of making the 8 if the Hawks win (in my tiny brain at least)

My brain is hurting....

23 minutes ago, DubDee said:

Of course I don't want to rely on those team but if Geelong win there is a pretty likely scenario where you need 14 wins to make the 8. so if games go roughly to script, we have a better chance of making the 8 if the Hawks win (in my tiny brain at least)

All good points you make.

The good thing about Hawthorn losing this week though (and if we managed to beat Sydney) is that Hawks play Swans in last round. The loser would miss the 8 and we'd automatically qualify. 

28 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

IMO the most likely safe path to the 8 with 13 wins:

R21: MFC d Syd
R21: Geel d Haw
R22: Ade d Nth

Then North and the loser of Sydney and Hawthorn in the last round cannot make it no matter what else  happens in R22 and 23.

GWS beating Sydney in round 22 would be imperative as well if we're to get in with 13 wins.

1 minute ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

GWS beating Sydney in round 22 would be imperative as well if we're to get in with 13 wins.

No because both Sydney and Hawthorn would have 13 wins going into R23 and they both can't win that game.  Only a draw would put us out.

This really is the brain melt thread isn't it! Especially at 5pm on a Thursday.

Definitely Hawthorn and Port this week. St Kilda and Adelaide would be bonuses, Saints mainly as Essendon would be completely rooted then, if they are not already.

as everyone  in the industry drones on about ' control the controllables'.

7 minutes ago, Clintosaurus said:

Definitely Hawthorn and Port this week. St Kilda and Adelaide would be bonuses, Saints mainly as Essendon would be completely rooted then, if they are not already.

I must not be getting this as I can't see the benefit of Hawthorn winning.

19 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

No because both Sydney and Hawthorn would have 13 wins going into R23 and they both can't win that game.  Only a draw would put us out.

Wouldn't that be the most Melbourne thing ever?

29 minutes ago, BigFez said:

Wouldn't that be the most Melbourne thing ever?

The conspiracy theories will run riot if they do draw and as a result both get into the 8.

My brain hurts !!

I hate the filth and hope they lose. Not sure about the other matches.

I'm actually not on the wating Meth Coast to beat Port bus, I'm about making our own destiny and if we play our best we should beat Sydney and a Meth Coast without Gaff, Nicnat and Possibly Kennedy(retirement is not farxaway). Like 87, 98 and 00 finish strong boys and build on the momentum 

4 hours ago, small but forward said:

But at least you'd get to see a fair bit of our boys Steve, being a Perth boy. 

As good as that would be I’d still prefer them to play home finals instead of at the craypot stadium over here.

9 hours ago, McQueen said:

Apart from a Demon victory against the Swans, I have high hopes of this rounds results falling our way to assist in shoring up our top 8 spot and there's a few crunch games that will again have a huge bearing on where we will sit come Sunday evening.

A Geelong win over the Hawks is to our benefit although it will bring the Cats into 48 points as well.

An Eagles win over the Power would also benefit us but I can't see that happening without Gaff, Kennedy and Nic Nat.

An upset win by the Lions over the filth would be glorious and at Etihad I think it's real possibility.

Can the Crows shock the Giants in Canberra? Unlikely but it would be great for us.

I'll be barracking hard for the Dogs to defeat North to keep them outside the 8.

So if everything goes to plan, 3rd spot on the ladder beckons but most importantly we put a gap between our challengers.

 

Nah [censored] geelong winning. 

Love seeing them out side of the 8 and dangerflop cracking the [censored].

7 hours ago, Fifty-5 said:

No because both Sydney and Hawthorn would have 13 wins going into R23 and they both can't win that game.  Only a draw would put us out.

Then a draw, it is.

That there are so many interesting games in this round demonstrates exactly why the AFL should not predetermine the Friday night participants so far ahead.

The difficulties of fixturing are appreciated but at least the last four rounds could be left until a bit later so that we don’t have to put up with Friday night games like Essendon v St Kilda as we must do tonight. 

11 hours ago, Pennant St Dee said:

I'm actually not on the wating Meth Coast to beat Port bus, I'm about making our own destiny and if we play our best we should beat Sydney and a Meth Coast without Gaff, Nicnat and Possibly Kennedy

Viney, Hibberd, Melksham, Lever... and now maybe Gawn.

Doesnt matter who Sydney or WC have out, we are worse off injury wise than both teams.

Edited August 9, 20186 yr by Petraccattack

17 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

It's imperative Geelong beat Hawthorn. Absolutely imperative.

On the assumption we win 13 games and beat Sydney:

I'd rather Geelong beat Hawthorn.

Yeah sure Geelong will get to 14 wins, but the loser of Hawthorn v Sydney in rd 23 will likely miss the finals on 13 wins.

If Hawthorn beat Geelong, Geelong will still finish higher than us on percentage as they will win their last 2 games by a combined 200 points. Freo and GC are barely VFL/WAFL standard at the moment.

So if Hawthorn beat Geelong and we only win 13 games, the possible ladder could look like this:

RICH 18-4

WCE 16-6

GWS 15-6-1

COLL 15-7

HAWKS 14-8

PORT   14-8

NORTH 14-8

GEEL 13-9

MELB 13-9

 

So you have us losing against W.C.E and the Giants? What would be the point of playing finals then?

27 minutes ago, Petraccattack said:

Viney, Hibberd, Melksham, Lever... and now maybe Gawn.

Doesnt matter who Sydney or WC have out, we are worse off injury wise than both teams.

Tyson and frost have stepped up... fr Viney and lever. which at least mitigates the losses a little. More trust in frost from the outset and we beat the saints and cats. But Hibberd and now Smith is leaving a hole and Melksham is big loss. Gawn... I can’t even think about that.

I have us beating the Swans and the Eagles then depending on personal I’m undecided on GWS.

I have Swans losing against us and the Giants, whilst the Hawks win their next two. We will then need the Swans to beat the Hawks so we finish 4th and the Hawks 5th. 

From here we beat Richmond week 1, the Eagles week 3 and ultimately GWS in the GF.

Which poster came up with ‘Pal’-Pepper? I see he’s been dumped this week. Was talked up big time a few weeks ago.

2 hours ago, Whispering_Jack said:

That there are so many interesting games in this round demonstrates exactly why the AFL should not predetermine the Friday night participants so far ahead.

The difficulties of fixturing are appreciated but at least the last four rounds could be left until a bit later so that we don’t have to put up with Friday night games like Essendon v St Kilda as we must do tonight. 

Well at least in that match I know which team to barrack for.  In the matches that matter it is such a maze as to what's best for us.  Maybe simplest to barrack against whichever team I hate most since no matter what I shout at the TV, the result doesn't change.  Strange that.

Edited August 9, 20186 yr by sue

27 minutes ago, sue said:

Well at least in that match I know which team to barrack for.  In the matches that matter it is such a maze as to what's best for us.  Maybe simplest to barrack against whichever team I hate most since no matter what I shout at the TV, the result doesn't change.  Strange that.

Hawthorn v Geelong - both horrible.

People seem to be forgetting Port and the filth in their calculations. They play each other next round  and it is possible that the filth may lose to Brisbane and Port to either w/c or the druggies..