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Run home to Finals - 2018

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Just now, chookrat said:

I reckon we will beat Adelaide in a tight contest and then lose to GC. 

 

I reckon winning both and then losing the next three is more probable

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    Geelong lost to the Dogs, Hawthorn lost to Brisbane, Sydney lost to GC, Port lost to Fremantle, we lost to St Kilda.

    Surprise losses happen, and may well continue to happen. Which makes predicting things really difficult. 

    If we go 3-2 over the final 5 games, our percentage should stay high enough to ensure we finish at least 8th.

    The WC and GWS games look to be the two hardest on the slate, so we're really now needing to win the next three. If we can knock off Adelaide this week, I'll really like our chances to get to 13. Miss out, and we're going to need to ensure we beat Sydney and then find a win against at least one of two top 4 sides in WC and GWS. 

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    I reckon we have a better chance of beating wc than adelaide.

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    https://predictor.squiggle.com.au

     

    There are some very interesting permutations going on that effect our round 23 match and it's easier to play around than explain.

    It could either be a game where GWS have top 4 spot sewn up and will rest getting us effectively into the finals (if we only win 1 of Syd/Adel/WCE heading into it) or it could be a top 4 match for US if we beat Adel & Syd ! and Syd beat GWS. The only way that it is a top 4 battle if GWS beat Syd, is if we also win all of our games leading into the match!

     

    Edited by johndemonic

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    On 7/23/2018 at 11:36 PM, dl4e said:

    I reckon we have a better chance of beating wc than adelaide.

    Well I think you're wrong. We have Buckley's chance against West Coast with our backline and their ridiculous marking targets in their forward line. Imagine 2 Tom Hawkins running riot all game. That's how I picture our WCE game going.

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    1 hour ago, Chook said:

    Well I think you're wrong. We have Buckley's chance against West Coast with our backline and their ridiculous marking targets in their forward line. Imagine 2 Tom Hawkins running riot all game. That's how I picture our WCE game going.

    I haven’t got to that game yet. 

    A crate of Whiskey ? will be needed!!!

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    14 hours ago, Chook said:

    Well I think you're wrong. We have Buckley's chance against West Coast with our backline and their ridiculous marking targets in their forward line. Imagine 2 Tom Hawkins running riot all game. That's how I picture our WCE game going.

    It is just a feeling. Nic nat is a big loss for them. Time will tell. I believe we have the type of midfielders to trouble them.

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    Hard to see where the three wins are going to come from.

    Gifts like Geelong gave us in the third quarter don't often repeat themselves. Combine that with our repeated failure against the better teams and MFCSS rules.

    I have the complete opposite feeling to last year when at this time I thought finals a relative certainty.

    Who knows

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    4 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

    Hard to see where the three wins are going to come from.

    Gifts like Geelong gave us in the third quarter don't often repeat themselves. Combine that with our repeated failure against the better teams and MFCSS rules.

    I have the complete opposite feeling to last year when at this time I thought finals a relative certainty.

    Who knows

    See I am the opposite the other way. After our North loss I was convinced we wouldn't make it. This year I feel it would be a huge choke if we missed. We are top 4 caliber.

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    Adelaide? Just can't see it happening. Should beat Gold Coast. Sydney play the MCG well, don't think so. West Coast away? No chance. GWS most in form side? Won't win.

    If we'd  won the Geelong games and the St. Kilda game we'd currently be in second place.

     

     

    Edited by The Stigga

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    6 minutes ago, The Stigga said:

    Adelaide? Just can't see it happening. Should beat Gold Coast. Sydney play the MCG well, don't think so. West Coast away? No chance. GWS most in form side? Won't win.

    Boy oh boy though if we'd have won the Geelong games and the St. Kilda game we'd currently be in second place.

     

     

    This is a team we smashed by 15 goals a couple of months ago. Admittedly it is on their home deck this time, and there are a couple of personnel changes since that day...but we play Adelaide Oval well and will be up for the fight. 50/50 IMO  

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    Jordan De Goey ruled out for a couple of weeks at least with bone stress in the lower leg. Another big blow for the Filth.

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    2 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

    Hard to see where the three wins are going to come from.

    Gifts like Geelong gave us in the third quarter don't often repeat themselves. Combine that with our repeated failure against the better teams and MFCSS rules.

    I have the complete opposite feeling to last year when at this time I thought finals a relative certainty.

    Who knows

    We're in then.

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    I reckon we will lose to the crows, but beat the suns, swans and upset the eagles. 

     

     

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    5 hours ago, dl4e said:

    It is just a feeling. Nic nat is a big loss for them. Time will tell. I believe we have the type of midfielders to trouble them.

    How I reckon the WC game will play out:

                                Melb        WC

    Inside 50s          85            35

    Free kicks           8             27

    Goals kicked      12           18

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    1 hour ago, Dee Zephyr said:

    Jordan De Goey ruled out for a couple of weeks at least with bone stress in the lower leg. Another big blow for the Filth.

    They’ve had the worst run of injuries. We train next door. Is there something in the ground that we are missing? 

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    Allirghty, I got bored and restless about our prosepcts at the same time. So, by process of elimination, with 5 rounds to go -

    North, Essendon, Adelaide: we are 20% or more and 1 win ahead of them. To pass us,  a team from this group would need to win two more games than us out of the remaining five. Two wins for us would put us out of all these team's reach, realisitically. Ok, whatever.

    Hawthorn and Geelong: Same wins, 10% margin. Long story short - we must at least match the win-loss results of whichever of these teams performs worse over the final five rounds. One of the three teams will miss finals.

    Geelong - have the Tigers, but also the Lions, Suns and Dockers all at home.

    Hawthorn - Dockers, Bombers and Saints, Sydney at the SCG.

    It could end up being hugely important that they play eachother in round 21.

    Geelong look home, they'd have three games they'd be confident of winning, and would gain certainty of a finals spot by beating Hawthorn. Tell y' what, a final 5 rounds with no travel and three home games against interstate teams... that's rosy.

    Hawthorn are a little shakier, with more credible opponents. Essendon may even fancy their chances at passing Hawthorn. It is conceivable that that could only win two, but we wouldn't want to be relying on that.

    A Fremantle win over Hawthorn on sunday means it could still be possible to finish in the 8 with just 12 wins.

    All other plausible variations on the final 5 rounds make 13 wins necessary. 

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    2 hours ago, Patches O’houlihan said:

    I reckon we will lose to the crows, but beat the suns, swans and upset the eagles. 

     

     

    I reckon we beat crows, suns and swans.

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    5 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

    Allirghty, I got bored and restless about our prosepcts at the same time. So, by process of elimination, with 5 rounds to go -

    North, Essendon, Adelaide: we are 20% or more and 1 win ahead of them. To pass us,  a team from this group would need to win two more games than us out of the remaining five. Two wins for us would put us out of all these team's reach, realisitically. Ok, whatever.

    Hawthorn and Geelong: Same wins, 10% margin. Long story short - we must at least match the win-loss results of whichever of these teams performs worse over the final five rounds. One of the three teams will miss finals.

    Geelong - have the Tigers, but also the Lions, Suns and Dockers all at home.

    Hawthorn - Dockers, Bombers and Saints, Sydney at the SCG.

    It could end up being hugely important that they play eachother in round 21.

    Geelong look home, they'd have three games they'd be confident of winning, and would gain certainty of a finals spot by beating Hawthorn. Tell y' what, a final 5 rounds with no travel and three home games against interstate teams... that's rosy.

    Hawthorn are a little shakier, with more credible opponents. Essendon may even fancy their chances at passing Hawthorn. It is conceivable that that could only win two, but we wouldn't want to be relying on that.

    A Fremantle win over Hawthorn on sunday means it could still be possible to finish in the 8 with just 12 wins.

    All other plausible variations on the final 5 rounds make 13 wins necessary. 

    Thoughts on Sydney?

    Sitting on 11 wins and play ESS (A) COLL (H) MELB (A) GWS(A) HAW (H)

    I think their run is tough and they're a risk of falling out of 8

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    1 minute ago, CelebratingJade said:

    Thoughts on Sydney?

    Sitting on 11 wins and play ESS (A) COLL (H) MELB (A) GWS(A) HAW (H)

    I think their run is tough and they're a risk of falling out of 8

    think they will win three of those... Essendon, Hawthorn and one other

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    On 7/20/2018 at 3:26 PM, Demonland said:

     

    If it finishes as listed I would be OK with that. Eighth (Melbourne) play fifth (Geelong) and the cats would be VERY worried if that was the case being played at the "G". The payback by the dee's for the last two matches against each other will be worth whatever you pay to get inside. Umpiring is so much more reliable in the finals and I believe Brayshaw will have a direct mike under his helmut from the ump's.

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    On 7/22/2018 at 4:20 PM, Dr.D said:

    not making the finals guys. ever since we lost to port and stkilda i didnt think we were a chance. and im usually right with these things 

    Hey Dr. D  Can I get a second opinion please.

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    6 minutes ago, MT64 said:

    Hey Dr. D  Can I get a second opinion please.

    Go for your life. I don't think we'll play finals. I think a lot of supporters outside die-hard dees fans expect the same.

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    1 minute ago, Dr.D said:

    Go for your life. I don't think we'll play finals. I think a lot of supporters outside die-hard dees fans expect the same.

    Play the kids then?

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    7 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

    Go for your life. I don't think we'll play finals. I think a lot of supporters outside die-hard dees fans expect the same.

    I think we will make finals.

    Lets have a friendly wager. Winner chooses loser's avatar until the eve of round one next year.

    Good bet for you given your confidence 

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