Looking ahead ... the Path to September

[Sir Why You Little 36,991]

2 minutes ago, The Chazz said:

Same as the Geelong game, SWYL.

I only fear GWS and Sydney in the top 8.

Goodwin's pressure gameplan is all about September

[Ash35 425]

1 minute ago, Sir Why You Little said:

We had Richmond by the Short and Curlies on Anzac Day, but we ran out of fit players. 

A return match has always been wanted. 

Yep, and I'm not saying you can't beat Richmond, but I like Melbournes chances against Port more.

You've already won in Adelaide this year, against a better team. Ports performances against top 8 teams this year is very poor.

As a neutral, I would love to see a Tigers vs Demons match up at the MCG, but I just have a gut feeling Port are more beatable.

[Sir Why You Little 36,991]

2 minutes ago, Wrecked Owl Dees Function said:

While thats true, there were 10 teams in the premiership race when fresh legs had no segregation in the pack. Richmond have been far more consistent in the last 3 months and should beat us, while Port haven't. A rich win would be a glorious upset and a signal that our early season form is back.

The week off will suit Goodwin's gameplan , if we make it & Jack Viney can play...

[deelete my account 1,194]

1 minute ago, Ash35 said:

Yep, and I'm not saying you can't beat Richmond, but I like Melbournes chances against Port more.

You've already won in Adelaide this year, against a better team. Ports performances against top 8 teams this year is very poor.

As a neutral, I would love to see a Tigers vs Demons match up at the MCG, but I just have a gut feeling Port are more beatable.

You might be a pesimistic in that life cant be so great as to let Richmond choke a 4th finals campaign in 5 years!

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,787]

28 minutes ago, Ash35 said:

Does everyone on here that wants to play Richmond first week of the finals do so because it means you can go to the game, or because you think Richmond is the most "beatable" side of all the likely opponents?

I'd rather play Richmond so I can attend the game more so than they are beatable.

We struggle against sides that apply great pressure, and Richmond are one of those. We lost to Sydney, Adelaide and GWS in the second of the year because of the pressure they applied to us.

[GawnWithTheWind 604]

Can't believe people are already talking about week 1 opposition for finals.

We are no lock to beat the Pies, and West Coast are due for a good game at home. I would say they are a 50/50 bet to beat the crows at home. GWS will struggle to beat the cats at home, so the crows will have very little to play for and will probably rest a few stars as they already have the minor premiership locked up.

I would say if we lose to the pies, we are a fair chance to finish 9th and WCE take our spot.

I hope the players aren't thinking more ahead than Saturday afternoon...

[Sir Why You Little 36,991]

1 minute ago, Ash35 said:

Yep, and I'm not saying you can't beat Richmond, but I like Melbournes chances against Port more.

You've already won in Adelaide this year, against a better team. Ports performances against top 8 teams this year is very poor.

As a neutral, I would love to see a Tigers vs Demons match up at the MCG, but I just have a gut feeling Port are more beatable.

It's wide open this year, i won't be worried either way. Richmond are vulnerable to that intense pressure around the ball. 

If we can recapture that early season pressure, we can advance past Week 1

[deelete my account 1,194]

2 minutes ago, Sir Why You Little said:

The week off will suit Goodwin's gameplan , if we make it & Jack Viney can play...

I think thats all of our hunches at this point, that our upside is way more brutal and spectacular than most in the 8, if we can find it again and for more than a half.

[Sir Why You Little 36,991]

1 minute ago, Wrecked Owl Dees Function said:

I think thats all of our hunches at this point, that our upside is way more brutal and spectacular than most in the 8, if we can find it again and for more than a half.

Yes it is brutal. But that is September. 

Pressure goes up by about 10% each week

it is easy to forget that watching Home & Away Games. The exact reason Wattsy got dropped. Toughen up or you will not play

[Ash35 425]

6 minutes ago, GawnWithTheWind said:

We are no lock to beat the Pies, and West Coast are due for a good game at home. I would say they are a 50/50 bet to beat the crows at home. GWS will struggle to beat the cats at home, so the crows will have very little to play for and will probably rest a few stars as they already have the minor premiership locked up.

 

Why would Adelaide rest players this week?

They have a week off before finals, and if they win their first final, another week off after that.

Resting players could mean those players play 1 match in about a month leading into a Preliminary final.

 

[JV7 2,350]

Trying to get a read on when we will play IF we make it.. Think if we play Port it will be the Saturday night & if we play Sydney it will be the Saturday afternoon, maybe the Friday night but doubt the AFL will put it up on a Friday night in Sydney

 

Edit: In the unlikely event we play Richmond that may be Friday night or Saturday arvo I reckon

Edited August 21, 2017 by JV7

[layzie 33,766]

4 minutes ago, Ash35 said:

Why would Adelaide rest players this week?

They have a week off before finals, and if they win their first final, another week off after that.

Resting players could mean those players play 1 match in about a month leading into a Preliminary final.

 

No team wants to go into finals with 2 losses in a row either.

[Ash35 425]

27 minutes ago, Wrecked Owl Dees Function said:

While thats true, there were 10 teams in the premiership race when fresh legs created no segregation in the pack. Richmond have been far more consistent in the last 3 months and should beat us, while Port haven't. A rich win would be a glorious upset and a signal that our early season form is back though.

Yep, I like this comment.

Richmond probably don't get the credit they deserve. Not saying they are unbeatable, far from it, but Anzac Day eve was a long time ago.

Essendon should have beaten Sydney in Sydney in Round 14, doesn't mean I want to play the Swans in the finals. 

Edited August 21, 2017 by Ash35

[Willmoy1947 4,081]

The"Path to September" is strewn with Ten Teams who thought they were going to make it..........

[Sir Why You Little 36,991]

16 minutes ago, Ash35 said:

Why would Adelaide rest players this week?

They have a week off before finals, and if they win their first final, another week off after that.

Resting players could mean those players play 1 match in about a month leading into a Preliminary final.

 

Play with fire ? resting too many players...

[SFebes 4,884]

Collingwood has me very concerned. They have half their side out and nearly beat Crows and Cats, they are no pushovers.

[Sir Why You Little 36,991]

3 minutes ago, SFebey said:

Collingwood has me very concerned. They have half their side out and nearly beat Crows and Cats, they are no pushovers.

Yep and they would love to F$&@k up our September. 

Goodwin must plan very carefully this week

[KysaiahMessiah 725]

6 hours ago, The Chazz said:

I will be investing heavily on West Coast making the finals.  Happy to drop a couple of hundred if it turns out I lose my money.  On the flip side, a return of around $1500 ($250 on WC at $6) would soften the hurt that I would be feeling from missing out on a finals spot.

For the punters - you're welcome.

Better off taking $11 on us missing the 8. . Sportsbet

[SFebes 4,884]

3 minutes ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Yep and they would love to F$&@k up our September. 

Goodwin must plan very carefully this week

Funny you mention that, Ox just mentioned on SEN earlier that Pies players want to [censored] on our parade this week and are pumped for the game. 

[praha 11,236]

2 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I'd rather play Richmond so I can attend the game more so than they are beatable.

We struggle against sides that apply great pressure, and Richmond are one of those. We lost to Sydney, Adelaide and GWS in the second of the year because of the pressure they applied to us.

I don't understand this logic of wanting to attend a game over wanting the easier opponent/bigger test. I don't give a crap where we play. And tbh I'd rather play Port in Adelaide than Richmond at the MCG, only because I care more about us winning a final than actually attending one. If it's in Melbourne, bonus, but for me finals is finals. I have zero interest or preferencr in where it is and I don't mind if I can't attend it.

[The Chazz 4,077]

1 hour ago, Travis16 said:

Better off taking $11 on us missing the 8. . Sportsbet

I looked at that, but I'm too unsure about the Essendon v St Kilda result (let's not forget that I'd the bombers lose, we make it regardless of our result). Reckon the $6 offered for the Eagles to make it is a smarter bet.

[billyblanks29 184]

Bombers are playing Freo in Melbourne. They can't lose to that mob.

$11 seems very tempting for a 'small' cover.

[The Chazz 4,077]

My mistake, had a bit if a mental blank there!

[Pates 9,660]

4 hours ago, GawnWithTheWind said:

Can't believe people are already talking about week 1 opposition for finals.

We are no lock to beat the Pies, and West Coast are due for a good game at home. I would say they are a 50/50 bet to beat the crows at home. GWS will struggle to beat the cats at home, so the crows will have very little to play for and will probably rest a few stars as they already have the minor premiership locked up.

I would say if we lose to the pies, we are a fair chance to finish 9th and WCE take our spot.

I hope the players aren't thinking more ahead than Saturday afternoon...

I'm in agreement with you on that one, if we had gone on with our 32pt lead in the final quarter and recorded a 40+ point win then I'd be a lot happier to talk finals, but lose to the Pies and we are on VERY shaken ground. 

I honestly don't care who play should we make it, finals has been my goal for the team this year. So let's just beat the Pies and whatever will be will be.

Apart from the two Sydney teams (who I feel caught us at bad times) we have matched up well on all teams in the 8. At our best we can beat anyone, anywhere. 

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

I've tried to clarify it via a number of predictors - what is the points margin that WCE need to make up to beat  us on %.

Cheers