Destination Club MFC

[Nascent 7,289]

12 hours ago, Watts the matter said:

 

Salem would not be in the top 20 if the draft was redone now. Only Melbourne supporters would disagree with this. 

I have to disagree with you there. Highly doubt anyone could come up with 20 players to take ahead of him in that 2013 draft if they were serious about it.

We sometimes overvalue our players but often the opposite is true and Salem seems to be on the receiving end of the latter.

Edited May 26, 2017 by Nascent
Disclaimer: I am a Melbourne supporter

[P-man 13,200]

12 hours ago, A F said:

Urgh. MFCSS at its finest. How could the Tyson, Salem and Hunt deal possibly only be seen as a shocker or break even?

Tyson is a cusp A grader (certainly B+ at the moment), despite some of the crap I read on here; Salem will be A grade if his form and development continues; and Hunt could be absolutely anything. He's a B+ grader currently.

Versus Kelly. Who this year is playing A grade football. 

In fact, I'd argue that the deal will either be seen as break even or we're well, well, well ahead.

This deal gets misrepresented a fair bit. It wasn't Kelly for Tyson and Salem (and Hunt). The trade also included a pick in the early 20s which to my understanding eventually became pick 29 which was used on Rory Lobb. 

If it's Kelly and Lobb vs Tyson, Salem and Hunt, it's a more interesting ledger. Most would favour the Kelly side of it.

I was more willing to call it break even (or even us being ahead) if Tyson was tracking towards A grade. He should be a fixture in the side in coming years but his ceiling is now looking lower than it once did. B grader, essentially.

Kelly would be a handy player to have (exactly what we need tbh), but it's far from a catastrophe.

 

[Binmans PA 26,158]

1 hour ago, Wiseblood said:

Kelly has been sensational this year.  He is quickly becoming one of the better midfielders in the comp.  Tyson is up and down, as is Salem, while Hunt is backing up last year with another good year.  To suggest we're well ahead is way off the mark.  There is still plenty of water to go under the bridge but you could argue the Giants are in front at the minute.

Kelly has reached A grade quicker, but even if Hunt, Salem and Tyson only ever reach B grade status, I'd much prefer three solid B graders than one A grader. Especially, given we've got others that could or arguably have reached A grade status already. Oliver being one.

I read so much commentary on here and other places that is all about the now, with no thought for the years to come. Just because Tyson is up and down now or Salem hasn't blown a game away, doesn't mean they won't develop into A graders.

We have two solid ball winners and arguably our most important player (Hunt) as a line breaker and they have one. How the Giants could be in front is ridiculous.

The way some on here are talking about Kelly, you'd think he was in Dangerfield and Selwood's company. He's not even in Oliver's company, so it's absurd commentary.

Edited May 26, 2017 by A F

[Binmans PA 26,158]

9 minutes ago, P-man said:

This deal gets misrepresented a fair bit. It wasn't Kelly for Tyson and Salem (and Hunt). The trade also included a pick in the early 20s which to my understanding eventually became pick 29 which was used on Rory Lobb. 

If it's Kelly and Lobb vs Tyson, Salem and Hunt, it's a more interesting ledger. Most would favour the Kelly side of it.

I was more willing to call it break even (or even us being ahead) if Tyson was tracking towards A grade. He should be a fixture in the side in coming years but his ceiling is now looking lower than it once did. B grader, essentially.

Kelly would be a handy player to have (exactly what we need tbh), but it's far from a catastrophe.

 

I just absolutely disagree that the ledger is well in their favour, as the initial and subsequent posts implied.

[P-man 13,200]

1 minute ago, A F said:

I just absolutely disagree that the ledger is well in their favour, as the initial and subsequent posts implied.

I don't think it's well in their favour. But Hunt definitely saves our bacon. He evens things up a fair bit.

[P-man 13,200]

5 minutes ago, A F said:

Kelly has reached A grade quicker, but even if Hunt, Salem and Tyson only ever reach B grade status, I'd much prefer three solid B graders than one A grader. Especially, given we've got others that could or arguably have reached A grade status already. Oliver being one.

I read so much commentary on here and other places that is all about the now, with no thought for the years to come. Just because Tyson is up and down now or Salem hasn't blown a game away, doesn't mean they won't develop into A graders.

We have two solid ball winners and arguably our most important player (Hunt) as a line breaker and they have one. How the Giants could be in front is ridiculous.

The way some on here are talking about Kelly, you'd think he was in Dangerfield and Selwood's company. He's not even in Oliver's company, so it's absurd commentary.

See my post above. Saying it's 3 for 1 isn't accurate. GWS eventuslly turned our second round pick into Lobb. Is my understanding.

[Binmans PA 26,158]

Also, RE: Salem v Kelly, given Salem has had the thyroid issue that kept him out statistically Kelly and Salem are pretty close. Salem uses the ball slightly better and Kelly average a possession more last year. Kelly's played 65 games and Salem 39 games. That's a significant amount of experience in Kelly's favour. 

[Binmans PA 26,158]

11 minutes ago, P-man said:

See my post above. Saying it's 3 for 1 isn't accurate. GWS eventuslly turned our second round pick into Lobb. Is my understanding.

Lobb isn't an A grader though. So it's a 2 v 3 deal.

I think MFC supporters get lost in this stuff because they look at Kelly and Lobb and go 'they are exactly the two sort of players we lack'. But if we lacked Salem, Tyson and Hunt, we'd need another three players. A line breaker and another two mids. Salem is also better with ball in hand than Kelly.

[Gator 16,893]

1 hour ago, Watts the matter said:

Good point and one that I have used in the discussion of this trade many times before. 

Out of interest has Roos actually confirmed that? I knew it wasn't Bont or Kelly from previous media comments and have always suspected it was Billings or Kolodjashnij.

 

Yes, he said it on FoxFooty.

Said our recruiters really rated Billings and that we would have selected him if we didn't do the deal with GWS.  They were discussing Billing's improvement and it was on the back of his 5 goal 30 disposal game.

[P-man 13,200]

1 hour ago, A F said:

Lobb isn't an A grader though. So it's a 2 v 3 deal.

I think MFC supporters get lost in this stuff because they look at Kelly and Lobb and go 'they are exactly the two sort of players we lack'. But if we lacked Salem, Tyson and Hunt, we'd need another three players. A line breaker and another two mids. Salem is also better with ball in hand than Kelly.

Lobb could become an A grader if his body follows suit. I rate him.

I'm with you to a degree but I think you're underrating Kelly. The kid is already a jet and he's going to get a lot better. He's in the Bontempelli category as far as talent goes. Almost certain to be a top 5 player in the league.

Again, though, I'm not crying into my pillow over the deal. We have three players who should remain best 22 in a flag contending side for the foreseeable future.

And I wouldn't swap Hunt for all the tea in China. Quite possibly the best draft selection we've made in the last ten years.

[Wiseblood 24,636]

1 hour ago, P-man said:

See my post above. Saying it's 3 for 1 isn't accurate. GWS eventuslly turned our second round pick into Lobb. Is my understanding.

That's correct - they moved Pick 20 on in a three team deal with Port and Brisbane that included a host of other picks as well that landed them Picks 14 and 29.

So, if we're being technical, then it's Kelly and Lobb vs. Tyson, Salem and Hunt.  I'm happy with what we have at the moment, although Salem is still yet to really get going, while Kelly has stamped himself as an excellent player so far this year while Lobb did the same last year (he has been quiet this year, though).  I'd have GWS slightly in front, but that's more on output than anything else.  

[junk 342]

The only reason if we become a estination club would be the money on offer,at Demonland you can earn good money for doing nothing.

[P-man 13,200]

12 minutes ago, ENYAW said:

The only reason if we become a estination club would be the money on offer,at Demonland you can earn good money for doing nothing.

Is this true, Andy? Where do I send my resume?

@Demonland

[junk 342]

P-Man I am going to profile you,you are 22-26 yrs age,loves to drink Capachino ( I know spelling is incorrect) 1 sugar,has a live in girl friend and has an office job. Based on what I said you have another 35 years of pain to go in your persuit of seeing the Dees win a flag. Have a good day

[P-man 13,200]

15 minutes ago, ENYAW said:

P-Man I am going to profile you,you are 22-26 yrs age,loves to drink Capachino ( I know spelling is incorrect) 1 sugar,has a live in girl friend and has an office job. Based on what I said you have another 35 years of pain to go in your persuit of seeing the Dees win a flag. Have a good day

37 and married Wayno. So a live in girlfriend, of sorts.

Generally flat white with two so not far off.

Office job is a tick.

35 more years of pain not so sure. Probably closer to 25 with what I've put my body through over the years. 

[Cheap Seats 3,300]

1 hour ago, ENYAW said:

P-Man I am going to profile you,you are 22-26 yrs age,loves to drink Capachino ( I know spelling is incorrect) 1 sugar,has a live in girl friend and has an office job. Based on what I said you have another 35 years of pain to go in your persuit of seeing the Dees win a flag. Have a good day

Do me now

[Roger Mellie 3,504]

4 minutes ago, Unleash Hell said:

Do me now

You have bad hair and a beard. Your glasses suck and I wouldn't be caught dead in a green and white bowling shirt. You also need to see a doctor about punching computers all day - it's unhealthy!

[Engorged Onion 9,306]

1 hour ago, P-man said:

37 and married Wayno. So a live in girlfriend, of sorts.

Generally flat white with two so not far off.

Office job is a tick.

35 more years of pain not so sure. Probably closer to 25 with what I've put my body through over the years. 

Hope wifey doesn't see this pal... there will be a penance.

[Skuit 9,181]

Neither GWS or the MFC drafted Aish so it's a win-win on the Kelly-Tyson deal as far as I'm concerned. We knew what we were giving up but had to make the sensible choice at that time of our rebuild. Simple. Fat load Kelly would have been if we had had no-one to win the ball, and he probably wouldn't be tracking the way he has if he had his development stifled by coming to us. Matt Jones and Jordie McKenzie were in our starting midfield. Right now, Kelly and Lobb are exactly what we need, but GWS had the luxury of not needing a surplus Tyson at the time.

[Watts the matter 1,235]

8 hours ago, Nascent said:

I have to disagree with you there. Highly doubt anyone could come up with 20 players to take ahead of him in that 2013 draft if they were serious about it.

We sometimes overvalue our players but often the opposite is true and Salem seems to be on the receiving end of the latter.

Ok, I'll retract it somewhat, I think he would fall somewhere between 15 and 24. 

The following players would be undisputedly taken before him (not in order).

1.  Bont

2. Kelly

3. Cripps

4. Merrett

5. Billings

6. B. Brown

7. J. Hunt

8. O. Fantasia 

9. R. Lobb

10. C. McCarthy

11. C. Cameron

12.  M. Crouch

Then I would think the majority of football fans would rate these players ahead of Salem.

13. L. McDonald 

14. K. Kolodjashnij

15. T. Boyd (not that I would)

He would be batched in with the following players.

16. B Acres

17. T. Nankervis 

18. D. Sheed

19. T. Barrass 

20. D. McStay

21. J. Impey

22. D. Byrne-Jones (haven't watched him much this season, but loved him work last season)

23.  L. Taylor (personally don't rate him)

24. Z. Jones (Edit)

 

Edited May 26, 2017 by Watts the matter

[DistrACTION Jackson 6,421]

2 minutes ago, Watts the matter said:

Ok, I'll retract it somewhat, I think he would fall somewhere between 15 and 24. 

The following players would be undisputedly taken before him (not in order).

1.  Bont- Yes

2. Kelly- Yes

3. Cripps- Yes

4. Merrett- Yes

5. Billings- Yes

6. B. Brown- Yes

7. J. Hunt- Yes

8. O. Fantasia - No

9. R. Lobb- No

10. C. McCarthy- No

11. C. Cameron- Maybe

12.  M. Crouch - Butchers it NO

Then I would think the majority of football fans would rate these players ahead of Salem.

13. L. McDonald - No he is useless

14. K. Kolodjashnij - Maybe

15. T. Boyd (not that I would) - Big NO

He would be batched in with the following players.

16. B Acres - Another Butcher

17. T. Nankervis - Maybe

18. D. Sheed - No

19. T. Barrass - No

20. D. McStay - Maybe

21. J. Impey - No

22. D. Byrne-Jones (haven't watched him much this season, but loved him work last season) - No

23.  L. Taylor (personally don't rate him) - No Way

 

 

[Gator 16,893]

15 minutes ago, Watts the matter said:

Ok, I'll retract it somewhat, I think he would fall somewhere between 15 and 24. 

The following players would be undisputedly taken before him (not in order).

1.  Bont

2. Kelly

3. Cripps

4. Merrett

5. Billings

6. B. Brown

7. J. Hunt

8. O. Fantasia 

9. R. Lobb

10. C. McCarthy

11. C. Cameron

12.  M. Crouch

Then I would think the majority of football fans would rate these players ahead of Salem.

13. L. McDonald 

14. K. Kolodjashnij

15. T. Boyd (not that I would)

He would be batched in with the following players.

16. B Acres

17. T. Nankervis 

18. D. Sheed

19. T. Barrass 

20. D. McStay

21. J. Impey

22. D. Byrne-Jones (haven't watched him much this season, but loved him work last season)

23.  L. Taylor (personally don't rate him)

 

It's a fair analysis.

[titan_uranus 22,397]

20 minutes ago, Watts the matter said:

Ok, I'll retract it somewhat, I think he would fall somewhere between 15 and 24. 

The following players would be undisputedly taken before him (not in order).

1.  Bont

2. Kelly

3. Cripps

4. Merrett

5. Billings

6. B. Brown

7. J. Hunt

8. O. Fantasia 

9. R. Lobb

10. C. McCarthy

11. C. Cameron

12.  M. Crouch

Then I would think the majority of football fans would rate these players ahead of Salem.

13. L. McDonald 

14. K. Kolodjashnij

15. T. Boyd (not that I would)

He would be batched in with the following players.

16. B Acres

17. T. Nankervis 

18. D. Sheed

19. T. Barrass 

20. D. McStay

21. J. Impey

22. D. Byrne-Jones (haven't watched him much this season, but loved him work last season)

23.  L. Taylor (personally don't rate him)

24. Z. Jones (Edit)

 

Bontemptelli, Kelly, Cripps, Merrett, Brown, Hunt and Lobb I would say can't be disputed.

The rest can.

It is, as always, very subjective.

[old55 21,352]

Salem has had a lot of interruptions.  He has shown some great signs this year.  I was a doubter but now I' m a believer.  Hard and skillful.  He'll be in the top 10 in that list.

[Nasher 33,059]

On 26/05/2017 at 1:56 PM, ProDee said:

Yes, he said it on FoxFooty.

Said our recruiters really rated Billings and that we would have selected him if we didn't do the deal with GWS.  They were discussing Billing's improvement and it was on the back of his 5 goal 30 disposal game.

This is exactly why it's pointless comparing the players received with the player picked in the draft. There's nothing to say we'd have picked the same player (and in this case there's evidence we would have selected a different one). To me it's very similar to "if 5 of those behinds had been goals" arguments - it puts you on a completely different course so you can't say what would have happened.

The only thing we can objectively ask if trying to measure the success of a trade is if we're happy with the players we got compared to the probability of getting good players with the picks spent. That in my view is too hard to determine from a far, although getting two seniors quality midfielders is a very good result IMO, regardless of whether Tyson gets much love on Demonland or not.