Saints v Dees Rd 1

[Deespicable 2,886]

Finally the real stuff is almost with us and anyone who watched the Saints take on Sydney last night would know that our Rd 1 mission is going to be major.

Richardson is a defensive master, a bit like Malthouse before his ego took over, and you just had to admire how he has developed a defence that scrags (the treatment on Buddy by Carlisle was amazing, mainly because they kept getting away with it) and a hard midfield that hunts in packs and a bunch of forwards that know how to tackle. You can tell their style by the fact that Acres can't get a game - they don't care about skills if you aren't tough as well.

It won't be easy and it isn't a game where we can pick a side on hope - hence I am in the Spencer, not Weideman camp. The reason for that is twofold.

1) So far Weids has laid about as many tackles up forward as Jack Watts - it rarely happens because he still lacks the agility and the strength. Weids day will come, but he ain't ready and certainly not for this one.

2) Only one ruckman beat/matched Gawn twice last year - Hickey. He jumps early to counter Maxy and works hard on the ground. If there is one game you want Maxy to finish off strongly it is against the Saints and if he's got no support (Watts gave him a chop out when he rucked against Bruce last year), he will tire. If Spencer plays we have cover, should one of Hickey's early jumps give Maxy a corkie and we also have a winning back-up against Bruce when Gawny has a rest. St Kilda may counter by playing longer, but I doubt it because they already have four tall forwards (if you include Riewoldt on the wing). And whilst Spencer will lack mobility up forward, he is more likely to lay a tackle than Weids at this stage. he also has a bit more mongrel - which is what we will need against the Saints - they aren't Carlton!

This week at Casey, hopefully four of our keys play well after injury - Kent, Garlett, Hibberd and Jetta - as all are in our best 22 when fit. 

The two crucial issues for the selectors to discuss after last week are: How do we get the tackling intensity/pressure back up to a high level again after we were so poor in that area against West Coast without VDB, JKH and Jeffy? That's why at least one of Kent or Garlett will come in barring injury concerns and IMO, in a selection shock Hannan will be considered if he dominates at VFL level this weekend.

How are we going to counter/stop wingman Roo on the lead up and from kick-ins?  We can't afford for T-Mac to play on him again and with Frost out we don't have enough talls to mark him anyway. So my go would be to treat him as a midfielder and play a good spoiler. Riewoldt is still not a natural when the ball hits the ground, so he can be exploited. Vince has been suggested and he's a good negater but he has been doing the kick-in duties. So maybe Lewis or Brayshaw? I'm going with Vince though and would rather if Col or Oscar kicked in for a change. 

Here's my Rd 1 team:

B: Jetta or Hibberd (Billings or Gresham) Oscar (Bruce) Garland (Membrey)

HB: Hunt (Webster or Wright) T-Mac (McCartin) Lewis (Weller)

C: Vince (Riewoldt) Viney (Steven) Salem (Gresham or Billings)

HF: Brayshaw Hogan Melksham

F: Kent or Garlett Watts Petracca

Ru: Gawn Oliver N.Jones

Int: Spencer, Tyson, Stretch, Bugg

Emerg: Harmes, Weid, Neal Bullen or Hannan

 

Edited March 14, 2017 by Demonland
Added a poll for the homepage

[What 18,810]

Nick Riewoldt, Josh Bruce, Pat McCartin and Tim Membrey

With Jake Carlisle having the ability to play either end.

They certainly have an embarrassment of riches in the talls department, and will probably be the best marking team in the comp in 2017.

[brendan 3,437]

Sportsbet still have dees slight favorites, unfortunately I just can't see us winning this game(hope I am wrong) we would have to destroy them in the middle to win if saints manage to break even I think there forward line should kick enough goals to take the win as we can't cover them all, should be a cracker of a game and I can't wait.

saints by 22 points 

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

43 minutes ago, Deespicable said:

I'm going with Vince though and would rather if Col or Oscar kicked in for a change. 

 

 

 

 

Hang on.

You want us to be in with a chance don't you?

[Moonshadow 17,677]

One thing is certain, should we beat the Saints in R1 you'd better hold onto your hat. It'll be a wild and exciting ride in season 2017.

[Robot Devil 1,895]

49 minutes ago, Deespicable said:

I'm going with Vince though and would rather if Col or Oscar kicked in for a change.

[Wells 11 5,422]

49 minutes ago, Deespicable said:

Finally the real stuff is almost with us and anyone who watched the Saints take on Sydney last night would know that our Rd 1 mission is going to be major.

Richardson is a defensive master, a bit like Malthouse before his ego took over, and you just had to admire how he has developed a defence that scrags (the treatment on Buddy by Carlisle was amazing, mainly because they kept getting away with it) and a hard midfield that hunts in packs and a bunch of forwards that know how to tackle. You can tell their style by the fact that Acres can't get a game - they don't care about skills if you aren't tough as well.

It won't be easy and it isn't a game where we can pick a side on hope - hence I am in the Spencer, not Weideman camp. The reason for that is twofold.

1) So far Weids has laid about as many tackles up forward as Jack Watts - it rarely happens because he still lacks the agility and the strength. Weids day will come, but he ain't ready and certainly not for this one.

2) Only one ruckman beat/matched Gawn twice last year - Hickey. He jumps early to counter Maxy and works hard on the ground. If there is one game you want Maxy to finish off strongly it is against the Saints and if he's got no support (Watts gave him a chop out when he rucked against Bruce last year), he will tire. If Spencer plays we have cover, should one of Hickey's early jumps give Maxy a corkie and we also have a winning back-up against Bruce when Gawny has a rest. St Kilda may counter by playing longer, but I doubt it because they already have four tall forwards (if you include Riewoldt on the wing). And whilst Spencer will lack mobility up forward, he is more likely to lay a tackle than Weids at this stage. he also has a bit more mongrel - which is what we will need against the Saints - they aren't Carlton!

This week at Casey, hopefully four of our keys play well after injury - Kent, Garlett, Hibberd and Jetta - as all are in our best 22 when fit. 

The two crucial issues for the selectors to discuss after last week are: How do we get the tackling intensity/pressure back up to a high level again after we were so poor in that area against West Coast without VDB, JKH and Jeffy? That's why at least one of Kent or Garlett will come in barring injury concerns and IMO, in a selection shock Hannan will be considered if he dominates at VFL level this weekend.

How are we going to counter/stop wingman Roo on the lead up and from kick-ins?  We can't afford for T-Mac to play on him again and with Frost out we don't have enough talls to mark him anyway. So my go would be to treat him as a midfielder and play a good spoiler. Riewoldt is still not a natural when the ball hits the ground, so he can be exploited. Vince has been suggested and he's a good negater but he has been doing the kick-in duties. So maybe Lewis or Brayshaw? I'm going with Vince though and would rather if Col or Oscar kicked in for a change. 

Here's my Rd 1 team:

B: Jetta or Hibberd (Billings or Gresham) Oscar (Bruce) Garland (Membrey)

HB: Hunt (Webster or Wright) T-Mac (McCartin) Lewis (Weller)

C: Vince (Riewoldt) Viney (Steven) Salem (Gresham or Billings)

HF: Brayshaw Hogan Melksham

F: Kent or Garlett Watts Petracca

Ru: Gawn Oliver N.Jones

Int: Spencer, Tyson, Stretch, Bugg

Emerg: Harmes, Weid, Neal Bullen or Hannan

 

I liked your thinking re Spencer and the tackles / forward pressure. In the abcense of a dean kent or AVB I agree with you.  I also don't feel weed is ready. In fact,  not even close yet.  

I also think Vince on Riewoldt is a worthy option. Rooey will out mark anyone so its just when the balls on the ground anyway. Plus vince is experienced enough to use that and not to be awed by him  Last time we played them  they left Reiwoldt unmarked (as we were zoning)  and he murdered us as he does EVERY time we play. Its almost embaressing. In general after quarter time our style  looked  awful at the ground that day.

 I doubt  they will cover man for man but last time the saints could have won  by 15 goals...so I hope we've got a few more tricks up our sleeve if things head south.  Given what he did to Franklin ( and got away with) , expect Hogan to be manhandled by Carlisle and his influence nullified. He kicked 7 that day and was one of our only winners  so Who's going to kick the goals?  Garlett is a massive out for us imo. 

As much I WANT this one (for 100 different reasons) ...I cant see us taking them at that venue........ this time. But Im flying interstate to see it so I sincerely hope Im wrong. 

[george_on_the_outer 7,705]

1 hour ago, Petraccattack said:

Nick Riewoldt, Josh Bruce, Pat McCartin and Tim Membrey

With Jake Carlisle having the ability to play either end.

They certainly have an embarrassment of riches in the talls department, and will probably be the best marking team in the comp in 2017.

Last night Reiwoldt 7 marks, Bruce 6, McCartin 4, Membrey 1. Contested marks Bruce 4, McCartin 1 Reiwoldt and Membrey 0.  They aren't all that good.

Reiwoldt plays off the bench and wing.  Can't run like he used to. 

All we have to do is stop turnovers.

[Moneider96 1,045]

St kilda have one of the most formidable forward lines in comp. Our defence and midfield alike will have to play out of their minds if we're going to win. Hopefully our desire for retribution after so many smashingss at the hands of the saints will drive us to do just that. 

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,510]

6 minutes ago, george_on_the_outer said:

Last night Reiwoldt 7 marks, Bruce 6, McCartin 4, Membrey 1. Contested marks Bruce 4, McCartin 1 Reiwoldt and Membrey 0.  They aren't all that good.

Reiwoldt plays off the bench and wing.  Can't run like he used to. 

All we have to do is stop turnovers.

Sydney midfield provides consistent pressure to the ball carrier, not allowing them time and space for precision delivery.  This is something we did in weeks 1 and 2 of the JLT, but failed to do against WCE.  Tall forward-lines like StKilda's need good delivery; good defense starts in the midfield.

[Moonshadow 17,677]

Just now, george_on_the_outer said:

Last night Reiwoldt 7 marks, Bruce 6, McCartin 4, Membrey 1. Contested marks Bruce 4, McCartin 1 Reiwoldt and Membrey 0.  They aren't all that good.

Reiwoldt plays off the bench and wing.  Can't run like he used to. 

All we have to do is stop turnovers.

That's the crux of it. We've been unable to stem the flood of turnovers for years. Every club does them, the better ones do less and they have less impact. Ours against WCE cost us many goals. We need to address this, it will happen as players mature and make better decisions. My heart is in my mouth every time Tmac, Omac, Garland, et al shoot off a handball or kick.

[Lil_red_fire_engine 11,233]

25 minutes ago, Moneider96 said:

St kilda have one of the most formidable forward lines in comp. Our defence and midfield alike will have to play out of their minds if we're going to win. Hopefully our desire for retribution after so many smashingss at the hands of the saints will drive us to do just that. 

Melbourne supporters are better than most at talking up other teams.

Riewoldt plays on a wing these days. Membrey and Bruce are hot and cold. McCartin has not played a quality game of AFL that I have seen yet but will be good. 

Jack Stevens is probably the most under rated player on a list but him aside they are an ok list held together by some elite players who are passed their best.

We pressure well and execute well forward of centre and we win and win well.

Edited March 13, 2017 by big_red_fire_engine

[Moneider96 1,045]

19 minutes ago, big_red_fire_engine said:

Melbourne supporters are better than most at talking up other teams.

Riewoldt plays on a wing these days. Membrey and Bruce are hot and cold. McCartin has a played a quality game of AFL that I have seen yet but will be good. 

Particularly when it comes to St Kilda for obvious reasons.

I don't disagree with you actually. Riewoldt plays on the wing in most games (did he against us last here? I know he didn't against Brisbane, kicking 9 goals or some such), and of the remaining 3, Bruce is probably the only consistent one. Membrey tends to play well against us though, and Mccartin has shown great promise in the preseason games (but they're only preseason games, anyways).

Edited March 13, 2017 by Moneider96

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,510]

9 minutes ago, big_red_fire_engine said:

Melbourne supporters are better than most at talking up other teams.

Riewoldt plays on a wing these days. Membrey and Bruce are hot and cold. McCartin has a played a quality game of AFL that I have seen yet but will be good. 

Agreed - if this is the way we stress about the Saints, imagine when we play GWS, Sydney, etc.  That's not to say they're not a good team, they certainly look up and about, but the way they're being discuss on DL you'd think they'd be flag favorites.  StKilda will have a lot of eyes on them this year, the classic hunter becoming the hunted - no one will take them lightly and that brings with it a new pressure of expectation that that young team has not had in recent years.

A lot of this comes from the fact that we haven't beaten them in so long but much of it is from the way they seems to consistently lift when playing against us and we completely drop our bundle.  In both matches last year we played terribly against them and, in the second match in particular, we had every chance of still pinching.  Petracca missed a couple of sitters, Hogan's goal reversed when touched on the line, Brayshaw having some terrible turn-overs in the corridor.

At our best, we can beat anyone... just a matter of which Melbourne and which StKilda turns up.  

 

From an MFC point of view, the VFL practice match this weekend is very, very important for us to hopefully get some players up.

[pineapple dee 2,892]

The thinking St Kilda supporter ( is that an oxymoron ? ) puts 6 months pay ( or dole money ) on the saints to win this game and sits back rubbing their little hands together. 

[Gator 17,474]

57 minutes ago, Moneider96 said:

and Mccartin has shown great promise in the preseason games (but they're only preseason games, anyways).

He's been disappointing.  Has he kicked a goal in the 3 games ?  Might have kicked one.  I was looking on a Saints forum today and a few posters agreed he's not presently in their best team, but they know he'll be selected.  His physique still looks like that of a bush full-forward.

[bandicoot 1,395]

Swans played an undermanned side however if the saints bring the same pressure as they did in the second half then we are going to struggle.

there is no room for errors at etihad and saints tackle in packs, causing pressure on our disposal and turnovers.

our skills aren't good enough yet to stop these turnovers. Saints however are also not at top level for disposal.

if we can out match their intensity then we are every chance of winning. 

Any less then our best won't get us over the line

[DistrACTION Jackson 9,243]

My biggest concern is if we go into this game without Kent & Garlett.

ANB really is not in the same class as these two as a small forward and lacks their pace.

I really hope both can play in the Casey practice match and get enough match fitness to play Round 1.

I'd also like to see Dion Johnstone get a full run in that Casey game as well as I've heard good things about him.

[WA Demon13 39]

Garland ... surely you jest. I understand watching a game on the telly can be missleading but watching him live last week he was a liabiity and not in my best 32 never mind starting 18 for round 1.

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,510]

56 minutes ago, Is Dom Is Good said:

My biggest concern is if we go into this game without Kent & Garlett.

ANB really is not in the same class as these two as a small forward and lacks their pace.

I really hope both can play in the Casey practice match and get enough match fitness to play Round 1.

I'd also like to see Dion Johnstone get a full run in that Casey game as well as I've heard good things about him.

A have a feeling we're more likely to see Kent before Jeffy.

It's amazing, for all the talk of our deep running midfield, we're exposed very quickly for pace and class in the forward line. 

[Lucifers Hero 40,364]

1 hour ago, Is Dom Is Good said:

My biggest concern is if we go into this game without Kent & Garlett.

We may have both (and Hibberd):  'Melbourne said on Monday that Watts would be in the Casey Demons team to play Port Melbourne at Casey Fields on Sunday morning...Watts will be joined by Dom Tyson, who missed the start of the JLT Community Series because of a knee injury. Jeff Garlett (hamstring), Michael Hibberd (Achilles) and Dean Kent (back) are also in contention to play in the game after injury-interrupted pre-seasons'.  http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/melbourne-forward-jack-watts-to-play-for-casey-on-sunday-20170313-gux22a.html

A big improvement on last week's team if they all play vs Saints!

[RalphiusMaximus 6,088]

I think we need to accept that we're going to lose this one. The Saints at Etihad is our worst possible opponent. There is no combination of opponent and venue we are as bad against, including Geelong in Geelong. I don't care what the bookies say, we're no chance.

[Moneider96 1,045]

1 minute ago, RalphiusMaximus said:

I think we need to accept that we're going to lose this one. The Saints at Etihad is our worst possible opponent. There is no combination of opponent and venue we are as bad against, including Geelong in Geelong. I don't care what the bookies say, we're no chance.

Such a trend has to come to an end some day. We'll eventually beat them over there. It's just a question of when. And i see no reason to believe that, on this occaision, it's impossible. The prospects of us beating them in a fortnight are better than they have been in a long, long, time.

[DubDee 26,117]

50-50 call but I'm backing us to win. Practice matches don't count for much, once the real stuff begins we will attack the ball like animals and will hammer them around the ball. Lewis makes a big difference. Oliver having a preseason makes a big difference. A fit Salem, Angus etc....

they are better up front and on the outside but we'll be right

Dees to hammer them by 1 point

 

[Wiseblood 24,637]

36 minutes ago, RalphiusMaximus said:

I think we need to accept that we're going to lose this one. The Saints at Etihad is our worst possible opponent. There is no combination of opponent and venue we are as bad against, including Geelong in Geelong. I don't care what the bookies say, we're no chance.

I certainly hope the players don't look at it this way, otherwise we'll never break the hoodoo.  Classic MFCSS, though, Ralph.  Building yourself up for the loss already to soften the blow.  Have some faith, man!

No doubt the Saints play it Etihad well and their style of play can cut us apart if we're not on our game, but, I'd like to think we have improved further over the summer and we can bridge that gap better than we have in the past.  Our pressure around the ball is terrific and I really do feel as though our midfield, as a whole, is better than theirs.  If Maxy can get on top of his Hickey and give us first use then it goes along way to winning the game.