Which Clubs to rise and fall 2017

[Adzman 2,154]

Something like

1 - 4: GWS, Adelaide, Bulldogs, Geelong

5 - 8: Sydney, West Coast, Melbourne, Hawthorn 

9 - 12: St Kilda, Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Collingwood

13 - 18 Essendon, Gold Coast, Richmond, Carlton, North Melbourne, Brisbane

This is the year that the Hawks and Swans start to show signs of sliding out of the 8. I don't think either side goes top 4 this season.

North are going to be disgusting this season, and have the biggest fall from grace.

[Ted Lasso 19,564]

Saints and Dees will go into the 8 

north and west coast will fall out 

 

[Skuit 10,031]

The new third-man-up prohibitions coupled with Roughead going down have to put a serious dent in the Bulldogs' aspirations of a repeat flag. Considering they only finished in seventh ahead of North in the home-and-away, there may even be a question of whether they make the eight.

[Bobby McKenzie 2,407]

On 18/01/2017 at 9:01 AM, beelzebub said:

I didn't rate the Aints this last season and they went ok, not super brilliant but quite ok. They get an amazing 14 games at their paddock which must help. They even get to play the [censored] there....and we have to go down the Geelong road. Infuriating. 

That said i dont see them playing must different. I see us going up a gear. Thats how i have us over them.

Buckley wont be there in 18...just watch. Anzac day will see the Bombers do the Pies...right after we send the Toiges to purgatory.

Cats an enigma. Hawks to start slipping. Swans top 4. Dogs Top 4

Cant see either of the Church city mobs flying that high but as Crows have wings they be the better...somewhere in top 6.

Roos...wheels falling off. Lions...meow !! 

Giants... Yep big boys now...not unbeatable though.

Blues...aptly named.

Weagles....no real impact...9-12

Dockers.....who ?

Dees...hmmmmm..was thinking 7th...but thats more likely StK so somewhere above them

My fixture indicates that we play Geelong at Etihad this year. No Geelong trip beelzebub. 

[Ethan Tremblay 31,271]

5 hours ago, Abe said:

Saints and Dees will go into the 8 

north and west coast will fall out 

 

I can see this happening also. 

[Delusional demon 82 1,197]

I can see us pushing into 5th /6th spot , I don't think 14 or even 15 wins is beyond this group. Also some in the media are similarly bullish both David king and Sam McClure have mentioned 5th spot which would need to be minimum 14 wins.

 

[Diamond_Jim 12,718]

If we are to rise we must do what the Bulldogs were able to do during the home and way season..... beat the teams below you.

Sounds simple but our losses to Essendon, Carlton and St Kilda (yes they finished above us in the end) were the difference between where we finished and a spot in the eight. Beat the teams outside the eight (assuming they are the same as last year and North drops out) and that is 13 wins to us. Add in a few upsets against the remaining teams in the eight and a higher position (say 6 or 7) opens up.

We actually only have 9 games against teams from the top seven of last year compared to 13 against the bottom eight (notionally including North in that group).

Sounds simple and the MFC supporter in me is pessimistic but that is the way to achieve success. Drop a game against a lower team and it negates any loss against a higher team.

Here is an interesting article on how Chelsea sits nine points clear on top of the EPL table. Its record against the other top six clubs in nothing stunning but it has in the main beaten the bottom 15. In games between the top 6 Liverpool is the leader

https://www.theguardian.com/football/who-scored-blog/2017/feb/08/chelsea-premier-league-lead-by-title-rivals

Of course this is only the home and away season.... finals are different

Hoping for a good ride in 2017 before the GWS juggernaut becomes unstoppable

[Forest Demon 4,681]

13 hours ago, Adzman said:

Something like

1 - 4: GWS, Adelaide, Bulldogs, Geelong

5 - 8: Sydney, West Coast, Melbourne, Hawthorn 

9 - 12: St Kilda, Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Collingwood

13 - 18 Essendon, Gold Coast, Richmond, Carlton, North Melbourne, Brisbane

This is the year that the Hawks and Swans start to show signs of sliding out of the 8. I don't think either side goes top 4 this season.

North are going to be disgusting this season, and have the biggest fall from grace.

Interested why you think Sydney will slide? They lost Mitchell, but just means Heeney moves into the middle full time. With Heeney and Mills from the academy, they have topped up an already quality list with 2 premium youngsters, without having to drop down the ladder or trade anyone out for high picks. I personally can't see them missing top 4.

[Pennant St Dee 13,412]

14 hours ago, Abe said:

Saints and Dees will go into the 8 

north and west coast will fall out 

 

I have Meth Coast in my top 4. Mitchells influence in freeing up Priddis Gaff and Shuey along with Sheed coming back in will be huge. Mckenzie is now in his second year back from a knee and along with Mcgovern and Barrass are 3 good tall defenders who are well complimented by Shepherd and Wellingham. Then we have their forward line. I hate them more than anything but expect them to be strong 

[Pates 9,686]

14 hours ago, Adzman said:

Something like

1 - 4: GWS, Adelaide, Bulldogs, Geelong

5 - 8: Sydney, West Coast, Melbourne, Hawthorn 

9 - 12: St Kilda, Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Collingwood

13 - 18 Essendon, Gold Coast, Richmond, Carlton, North Melbourne, Brisbane

This is the year that the Hawks and Swans start to show signs of sliding out of the 8. I don't think either side goes top 4 this season.

North are going to be disgusting this season, and have the biggest fall from grace.

I will enjoy that (as long as we beat them). They have been overrated for so long, so many times people have had them thereabouts of challenging when really they were always just making up the numbers. I'll admit my prediction of the slide was a couple of years out but they will slide right down. I see bottom four for them. 

I see Essendon finishing higher than the pies this year, and Bucks will be gone by years end. 

[Ted Lasso 19,564]

53 minutes ago, Pennant St Dee said:

I have Meth Coast in my top 4. Mitchells influence in freeing up Priddis Gaff and Shuey along with Sheed coming back in will be huge. Mckenzie is now in his second year back from a knee and along with Mcgovern and Barrass are 3 good tall defenders who are well complimented by Shepherd and Wellingham. Then we have their forward line. I hate them more than anything but expect them to be strong 

They certainly have a strong list, but they rarely seem to be able to get the best out of it and without Nic I think they'll be without their biggest weapon. But I also think the comp is now insanely close and not much will seperate 4th and 14th

[Adzman 2,154]

8 hours ago, Forest Demon said:

Interested why you think Sydney will slide? They lost Mitchell, but just means Heeney moves into the middle full time. With Heeney and Mills from the academy, they have topped up an already quality list with 2 premium youngsters, without having to drop down the ladder or trade anyone out for high picks. I personally can't see them missing top 4.

They have been good for a long time, and will be good this year. It isn't the middle of the ground that will hurt them, but overall depth. They have done well via academy picks, but haven't built quality depth on their list. They are one of those teams who will struggle to backfill injured players, and injuries are part of the game, I have them 5th based on their questionable depth.

[rjay 25,345]

23 hours ago, Skuit said:

The new third-man-up prohibitions coupled with Roughead going down have to put a serious dent in the Bulldogs' aspirations of a repeat flag. Considering they only finished in seventh ahead of North in the home-and-away, there may even be a question of whether they make the eight.

I think this will effect Geelong more than any other club.

[CBDees 3,167]

On 18/01/2017 at 0:33 PM, Caligula's Cohort! said:

My predictions are:

1 - 4: GWS, Sydney, Bulldogs, Geelong

5 - 8: Adelaide, St.Kilda, Melbourne, Hawthorn 

9 - 12: West Coast, Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Collingwood

13 - 18 Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, Gold Coast, Carlton, Brisbane

My reasoning behind all of this would be the natural progression of Melbourne and St.Kilda's youth and trade acquisitions, to help us reach the finals Woo-Hoo! I believe the Weagles will drop due to significant injuries to their ruck department and a tough draw. North will struggle without it's veterans... I imagine them to drop significantly. Freo will rise again with the return of Fyfe, Sandilands, Bennell and not to mention the good pick up's they got this trade period. And the rest will be trying to emerge from the bottom 6. 

With Round 2 finishing up today, is it too early to revisit some of the heroic posts of two and three months ago? The AFL tampers with the opening round Match-ups ( to try and create new record attendances) but nevertheless there are some very unexpected trends developing to date! 

[Caligula's Cohort! 105]

1 hour ago, CBDees said:

With Round 2 finishing up today, is it too early to revisit some of the heroic posts of two and three months ago? The AFL tampers with the opening round Match-ups ( to try and create new record attendances) but nevertheless there are some very unexpected trends developing to date! 

Sydney, Hawthorn and St.Kilda 0-2... I'm not entirely surprised about the results but the good teams will sort out the pecking order soon enough. It's only round 2 after all. 

[Demon trucker 1,800]

Freeo will not go back up last year fyfe and sandie played the first 5 rounds and they were 0 and 5, Ross Lyon is yesterday's  hero his time is up, the biggest con job was him getting a 5 year deal,  no coach should ever get a 5 year deal, the game can change so much every year. 

Edited April 1, 2017 by don't make me angry

[Wrecker45 3,378]

Hawthorn will finish 9th this year. Tyrone Vickery goes across to the Hawks.

Hawks sitting 0 -2

Tigers sitting 2 - 0

Coincidence?

[Adam The God 30,644]

Going on the first round and a half (which is always tough):

1 - 4: Adelaide, Bulldogs, West Coast, GWS

5 - 8: Sydney, Melbourne, Geelong, Port Adelaide

9 - 12: St Kilda, Hawthorn, Richmond, Essendon

13 - 18 Collingwood, Fremantle, Brisbane, North Melbourne, Gold Coast, Carlton