HS Bicks weighs your AFL team’s chances with his 2017 preview

[sue 9,102]

20 minutes ago, pineapple dee said:

And yet we doubled our lead in the last quarter against Port after they had got a head of steam up and got back in the game for a  period of time. 

That's a bit misleading. If you look at the for/against graph, we are steadily increasing our lead till about 1/2 way through Q2. After that the graph is pretty much horizontal  with a modest improvement by Port and finally a few cheap goals for us towards the end.    The skills of both sides just got worse and worse. I found it really striking how second rate we looked in replay.  At the time I overlooked that in the (momentary) excitement of the march towards the finals.

[Adzman 2,154]

We will finish higher than St Kilda in 2017. Their old brigade has kept them competitive,  but like all great warriors age will catch up with them and 2017 could be a fall from grace for the saints vets.

I'm confident we will take 8th spot. 

[Master Deebater 492]

38 minutes ago, Adzman said:

We will finish higher than St Kilda in 2017. Their old brigade has kept them competitive,  but like all great warriors age will catch up with them and 2017 could be a fall from grace for the saints vets.

I'm confident we will take 8th spot. 

Agree higher than Sisykilder, but expecting even higher up the ladder.

[Tony Tea 2,809]

Bicks is right to point to our inconsistency. We cannot afford to lose too many games of those games we should win.

[DemonOX 8,791]

12 hours ago, ProDee said:

We will get good very quickly.

Waiting 10 yrs Prodee, that ain't quick!

[Pennant St Dee 13,173]

48 minutes ago, DemonOX said:

Waiting 10 yrs Prodee, that ain't quick!

But if we are being honest after Bails rebuild Neeld brought us to absolute rock bottom. I look at us entering our 4th year of a major rebuild and most of the blocks are in place. The cement just needs to mature and strengthen 

[Demon trucker 1,800]

5 hours ago, pineapple dee said:

And yet we doubled our lead in the last quarter against Port after they had got a head of steam up and got back in the game for a  period of time. 

I know how negative  most posters are after the port win after the 10 goal win vs Brisbane there where lots of negative post about those wins, u would not get those posts from other teams websites after big wins like that. 

[Bang Na Demon 167]

Around the time of round 22 the media was engaging in a lot of back slapping over the success of PRs time at the Dees. It was as if the season was over already.

I wondered if the players subconsciously picked up on this and took the foot ever so slightly off the pedal?

14 hours ago, ProDee said:

The youngest team in the comp hit the wall in round 22.  It wasn't a "consistency" issue.  In 2013 we lost 11 games by 60 points or more.  We did this once in 2016.  We won more quarters than the Saints and finished with a higher percentage.

We'll be fitter, stronger and more experienced in 2017.

We will get good very quickly.

 

[McQueen 17,864]

Another self-proclaimed 'expert' that I've never heard of and just another puff piece with no real substance.

The clear differentiator for me is that we finally have some real depth within the list for the first time in yonks! Nearly 44 blokes who could come in to the team and play a role on game day and not look out of place - and, they're all competing for a spot in the firsts. When Roos and Jackson came on board four (4) years ago we barely had half a dozen best 22 locks and the rest were mediocre VFL players at best.

We are a team at long last and one that wants success for one another. The individuality that plagued the list in years gone by has been replaced with a team firs culture. We look to have nailed the draft first rounds at long last and have found some great value in later picks. Taylor has been a steal. For all of the apparent rogering we get from the Pies with ordinarily trades, I think we're a long way in front with the recruiting method Taylor has brought to the club. First class.

The development team is second to none and quite frankly I think the additions of Chaplin (who had an offer to stay at Punt Rd), Egan and Rooke point to and underline the quality of the environment Roos and co have put in place. People want to come to the club because they can see the raw talent on the list and want to be a part of developing it, pushing it hard and seeing it unleash on the field.

Misson and Rob Jackson have done a tremendous job, there can't be any question about their commitment to the playing group and driving of standards.

I have no concerns at all that Goodwin will not measure up. There's no apparent ego which is commonly seen across the AFL senior coaching a ranks. He's humble, assured and a footy nerd. I think he'll be a tactical genius on game day. The boys love him - what more could you want.

My point is, is that there is so much more beneath the surface that has/is/will enable the team to out-perform what the supposed guru sports writers can only see above the surface. They see win/loss and factor in natural progression or regression and out pops the puff from their PC's.

You, me and the majority of posters and readers of this forum know that there's a very different feel to this club right now. We live and breathe the club every day and know when things have turned a corner. I think we've turned a hair-pin corner and will ascend much faster than Mr Bicks thinks.

Ed: have since learnt the articles author is Mark Bickley. Makes no diff to my post.

Edited December 30, 2016 by McQueen

[stuie 7,374]

10 hours ago, McQueen said:

Another self-proclaimed 'expert' that I've never heard of and just another puff piece with no real substance.

You've never heard of Adelaide Premiership Captain, Mark Bickley?

 

[FarNorthernD 5,861]

1 hour ago, stuie said:

You've never heard of Adelaide Premiership Captain, Mark Bickley?

 

I'm guessing McQueen has Stuie but his 'just another puff piece with no real substance' comment is accurate. Most Demonlanders would have far more knowledge of our players, their failings and areas where they could improve than nearly any paid commentator. Remember when Buckley moved Howe into defence and it was almost universally hailed by the media as some brilliant and new left field move? How could they not of known that he had played his best footy for us as a back? Honestly as paid professionals, how could they not know? Because like any casual observers they only knew him as a bloke who could take a speccy and thought he must play forward.

They know the bare essentials. Most commentators would know about 'Big Maxy' Gawn, 'Captain courageous' Nathan Jones, 'Parents used to complain when he played against their kids' Jack Viney and the 'Rising Star winner Jesse Hogan (who, by the way, is going into his fifth pre-season not his fourth). And that is about it. I bet very few scribes would know Billy Stretch's jumber number or what sort of season he had without looking it up. I bet most here do including you Stuie

 

Edited December 29, 2016 by fndee

[sue 9,102]

15 minutes ago, fndee said:

I'm guessing McQueen has Stuie but his 'just another puff piece with no real substance' comment is accurate. Most Demonlanders would have far more knowledge of our players, their failings and areas where they could improve than nearly any paid commentator. Remember when Buckley moved Howe into defence and it was almost universally hailed by the media as some brilliant and new left field move? How could they not of known that he had played his best footy for us as a back? Honestly as paid professionals, how could they not know? Because like any casual observers they only knew him as a bloke who could take a speccy and thought he must play forward.

They know the bare essentials. Most commentators would know about 'Big Maxy' Gawn, 'Captain courageous' Nathan Jones, 'Parents used to complain when he used to played against their kids' Jack Viney and the 'Rising Star winner Jesse Hogan (who, by the way, is going into his fifth pre-season not his fourth). And that is about it. I bet very few scribes would know Billy Stretch's jumber number or what sort of season he had without looking it up. I bet most here do including you Stuie

 

True, though we have the luxury of only having to be 'expert' on a single team.  But on the other hand, I don't think any of us are paid for our deep insights.

[Willmoy1947 4,085]

The Media will "remember" when they want to get into crowded rooms full of delirious supporters.

[stuie 7,374]

3 hours ago, fndee said:

I'm guessing McQueen has Stuie but his 'just another puff piece with no real substance' comment is accurate. Most Demonlanders would have far more knowledge of our players, their failings and areas where they could improve than nearly any paid commentator. Remember when Buckley moved Howe into defence and it was almost universally hailed by the media as some brilliant and new left field move? How could they not of known that he had played his best footy for us as a back? Honestly as paid professionals, how could they not know? Because like any casual observers they only knew him as a bloke who could take a speccy and thought he must play forward.

They know the bare essentials. Most commentators would know about 'Big Maxy' Gawn, 'Captain courageous' Nathan Jones, 'Parents used to complain when he played against their kids' Jack Viney and the 'Rising Star winner Jesse Hogan (who, by the way, is going into his fifth pre-season not his fourth). And that is about it. I bet very few scribes would know Billy Stretch's jumber number or what sort of season he had without looking it up. I bet most here do including you Stuie

 

Oh I agree on the puff piece bit, there's a ton of those floating around at the moment. Generally a short paragraph of generalizations and absolutely no bold statements or actual analysis. Not much else to do this time of year though I guess.

 

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,817]

On 29/12/2016 at 4:19 PM, pineapple dee said:

And yet we doubled our lead in the last quarter against Port after they had got a head of steam up and got back in the game for a  period of time. 

Yeah I reckon using the tiredness as an excuse for the shocking Carlton loss is/was a cop out.

They either came in with huge heads and just expected it to happen after two excellent wins over Hawthorn and Port

Or

Didn't want to play finals as they knew deep down that they wouldn't be competitive if they made it.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,817]

If we finish 9th, win 12 games and have a percentage of over 100 then I'd say the season would be well and truly a pass mark.

[Bossdog 2,002]

6 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Yeah I reckon using the tiredness as an excuse for the shocking Carlton loss is/was a cop out.

They either came in with huge heads and just expected it to happen after two excellent wins over Hawthorn and Port

Or

Didn't want to play finals as they knew deep down that they wouldn't be competitive if they made it.

I don't think any player would ever think along those lines.

[Ted Lasso 19,513]

i reckon the boys had the Carlton and bombers wins banked before the ball was bounced and if that's the case it's something we need to stamp out very quickly. We can't afford to believe our own hype. 

[sue 9,102]

On 31 December 2016 at 11:05 AM, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Yeah I reckon using the tiredness as an excuse for the shocking Carlton loss is/was a cop out.

They either came in with huge heads and just expected it to happen after two excellent wins over Hawthorn and Port

Or

Didn't want to play finals as they knew deep down that they wouldn't be competitive if they made it.

i do not think tiredness was what happened in the second half of the Port match. so im not looking for excuses.. but whatever it was (eg overconfidence?) it carried over into the next game.

[Guest]

I would say the piece is 2/3rds of where it needs to be.
Hogan is not under the pump. I believe he injured his back in the Port game by smashing into the goal post. There is a reason why he was ordinary at the end of the year.
I would say next year will be a year of consolidation with enough improvement to get us into 7th or 8th. Talk of inconsistency is premature when you think about where we are at. Sure, we need to continue to bridge the gap between good and bad but that will come with time and maturity.

[Demon 16 213]

Bicks hasn't said much really.

I think we need to see improved running capacities from guys like Petracca, Salem, Oliver, Brayshaw, Vandenburg and Stretch.

We are also quite lean in the key posts outside of McDonald (CHB), Hogan (CHF) and Gawn (ruck).

Those guys will each need to play 15+ games you would think.