1 hour ago, Abe said:

are you hearing anything regarding the other big rumour of the day GNF?

I have been aware that we have been into Rockcliff for a few weeks, but there are many players never discussed on here that we are into and only a tiny percentage of these end in a trade.

I was updated last week that we thought we were the front runner and were carefully considering his personality and likely to make an offer. That was pre the Jordan Lewis bombshell that came completely from left field. It's not everyday an elite but aging star knocks on your door and tells you he wants to play for you!!!!! 

Anyway, the other rumour of the day is most probably true. 

It could be an epic trading period..... one which we had no first round picks and were expected to do nothing.

39 minutes ago, Macca said:

GWS drove a hard bargain with the Pies over Treloar ... in my opinion, they drove that hard bargain because they of all clubs, know about the vagaries of drafting.  They've had numerous first round picks and many of those picks have not or are not bearing fruit.

Not enough has been said about how a fledgling club like the Giants managed to eke out 2 pick 7's from an established club like Collingwood.  That transaction is an outlier but did the Pies get dudded?

In terms of what should happen, no, but in terms of what normally happens, yes, they did get dudded.

In comparison, a similar player to Treloar in Tom Mitchell goes for pick 14 alone.  Are there other factors that we don't know about?

Macca, I reckon if you want to continue this argument then you need to find some more relevant examples.  Treloar has no relevance at all in this; he was 22 at the time he was traded.  I agree with the vagaries of the draft and the risks with picks; in the draft you might get a 10 year player or you might draft a spud.  In this case though, the receiving club a 1-3 year player and Hawthorn get a 0-10 year player in return.  In the case of Treloar, Collingwood received a player you'd expect to be a 8-10 year player at worst, who is a known gun.  You would expect them to pay a heavy premium of that sort of player.  Tom Mitchell is in the same category.  Lewis isn't, because his longevity in the game is greatly shorter than the others.

I go in to any argument expecting to be persuaded, especially when up against someone whose posts I love reading.  Show me recent examples of clubs giving up anything greater than a third round pick for a player on the wrong side of 30, and I'll concede that that is where the price might be.

 

9 minutes ago, Deestroy All said:

I just had coffee with Flamingdees contact. Said Jordan Lewis might be a Demon in 17. 

Stay tuned. 

17 days, minutes or hours....

7 minutes ago, Grand New Flag said:

I have been aware that we have been into Rockcliff for a few weeks, but there are many players never discussed on here that we are into and only a tiny percentage of these end in a trade.

I was updated last week that we thought we were the front runner and were carefully considering his personality and likely to make an offer. That was pre the Jordan Lewis bombshell that came completely from left field. It's not everyday an elite but aging star knocks on your door and tells you he wants to play for you!!!!! 

Anyway, the other rumour of the day is most probably true. 

It could be an epic trading period..... one which we had no first round picks and were expected to do nothing.

Pray Tell, what is 'the other rumour' I'm desperately awaiting enlightenment, almost as much as I crave winning a lottery or a date with Sophia Loren.

43 minutes ago, Macca said:

GWS drove a hard bargain with the Pies over Treloar ... in my opinion, they drove that hard bargain because they of all clubs, know about the vagaries of drafting.  They've had numerous first round picks and many of those picks have not or are not bearing fruit.

Not enough has been said about how a fledgling club like the Giants managed to eke out 2 pick 7's from an established club like Collingwood.  That transaction is an outlier but did the Pies get dudded?

In terms of what should happen, no, but in terms of what normally happens, yes, they did get dudded.

In comparison, a similar player to Treloar in Tom Mitchell goes for pick 14 alone.  Are there other factors that we don't know about?

Moving the goal posts a bit now i reckon mate, 

Treloar is a match winner and an A grader with another decade in the game, Lewis has been a very good player but he's coming towards the end of a great career now.

if you compare Treloar vs Mitchell you're talking about a match winner vs an accumulator, bit like comparing Nathan Jones to Patrick Dangerfield in my opinion. 

I reckon if a legend of your club asks you for a trade you facilitate the move as best you can, and i reckon pick 47 is quite generous, MFC could quite rightly point out that the Hawks have just traded a "better" contracted player for essentially pick 88.

6 minutes ago, dieter said:

17 days, minutes or hours....

He's never that specific. 

6 minutes ago, Grand New Flag said:

I have been aware that we have been into Rockcliff for a few weeks, but there are many players never discussed on here that we are into and only a tiny percentage of these end in a trade.

I was updated last week that we thought we were the front runner and were carefully considering his personality and likely to make an offer. That was pre the Jordan Lewis bombshell that came completely from left field. It's not everyday an elite but aging star knocks on your door and tells you he wants to play for you!!!!! 

Anyway, the other rumour of the day is most probably true. 

It could be an epic trading period..... one which we had no first round picks and were expected to do nothing.

This is becoming fascinating. 

One poster who claims to have a couple of good contacts sets out a deal for Rockliff that he says will get done. 

Then another who is known to have good info says the player's club knows nothing about it.

Then another who has had some good info says we have been into the player for a while. 

Just to further confuse the issue, I heard that he was not someone we would be chasing.

Confused, I am.

51 minutes ago, Red and Blue Flame said:

Call my cynical - anyone else worried by Pickering's comments today? News reporting tonight Lewis is considering decision this weekend. 

 

The involvement of "Integrity" Pickering means that anything is possible. Don't count your chickens. With "My Word Is My Bond" Pickering for a manager, Lewis is just as likely end up playing rugby in France.

The only sure thing in this trade is that it's going to get dark at night, and the sun's going to come up in the morning.

8 minutes ago, Redleg said:

This is becoming fascinating. 

One poster who claims to have a couple of good contacts sets out a deal for Rockliff that he says will get done. 

Then another who is known to have good info says the player's club knows nothing about it.

Then another who has had some good info says we have been into the player for a while. 

Just to further confuse the issue, I heard that he was not someone we would be chasing.

Confused, I am.

I need a drink after reading that Redleg. 

Thanks mate now I have an excuse !!

Edited October 15, 20168 yr by DemonOX

Lewis isnt conaidering his future. Multiple sources say he told the club on Friday he wanted to be traded to Melbourne.

Zanotti files reports this year's second rounder for Rockcliff, next years for Hibberd and third rounder for Lewis.

Considering a player sponsor claimed MFC had no interest in Rockcliff it sounds like we very much do.

6 minutes ago, Redleg said:

This is becoming fascinating. 

One poster who claims to have a couple of good contacts sets out a deal for Rockliff that he says will get done. 

Then another who is known to have good info says the player's club knows nothing about it.

Then another who has had some good info says we have been into the player for a while. 

Just to further confuse the issue, I heard that he was not someone we would be chasing.

Confused, I am.

The most fascinating thing about this is that all these posters could be telling the truth. Trade week is a smoke and mirrors game with many constantly moving parts. 

I find the latest rumour on Rockcliff interesting and give it some credit as I know we were having a look last Monday. It may be true. But please don't misread what I am saying. I have had no info since last Monday. 

9 minutes ago, Norm Smith's Curse said:

 

Zanotti files 

 

I want to ask what that is but Im afraid its going to be one of those stupid Facebook pages

2nd rounder or 3rd round it doesn't matter because if we want to play finals next year a 31 year old A grader is going to help us get there ahead of an 18 year who will take 4 years to develop if they make it at all.

Im sick of drafting for the future, let's trade for next year for a change. 

Drafting for the future is what we have been doing for the past 10 year and it has got us nowhere!!

4 hours ago, beelzebub said:

well....come.....to the Dees Jordan Lewis

Oh gees beezle I want to believe!!!!! But dont want the let down!! 

Don't know if another false alarm is in mine or others best interests!!

 

2 minutes ago, Nasher said:

Macca, I reckon if you want to continue this argument then you need to find some more relevant examples.  Treloar has no relevance at all in this; he's 21.  I agree with the vagaries of the draft and the risks with picks; in the draft you might get a 10 year player or you might draft a spud.  In this case though, the receiving club a 1-3 year player and Hawthorn get a 0-10 year player in return.  In the case of Treloar, Collingwood received a player you'd expect to be a 8-10 year player at worst, who is a known gun.  You would expect them to pay a heavy premium of that sort of player.  Tom Mitchell is in the same category.  Lewis isn't, because his longevity in the game is greatly shorter than the others.

I go in to any argument expecting to be persuaded, especially when up against someone whose posts I love reading.  Show me recent examples of clubs giving up anything greater than a third round pick for a player on the wrong side of 30, and I'll concede that that is where the price might be.

 

I wish I could give you examples but even if I did, it wouldn't change my view on what I believe a draft pick is worth.  A draft pick does not have a definite outcome especially in comparison to what an established A grade elite player can offer.  If you don't believe that Lewis can give us 3 elite years then we're going to have to disagree on that.  I believe he can.

I brought up the Treloar/Mitchell trades as an aside to highlight how those trades seemed to be lopsided in comparison to each other. 

The biggest issue here is the value of draft picks ... and that is a huge factor in this discussion.  Many have an unfailing belief in drafting so they see a 2nd round draft pick as a far more valuable commodity than I do.  So my pick 25 is their pick 47.   Pick 47 is a pick that may not return much in my eyes even though a pick at that number can turn up trumps.  But not often enough so I don't like the percentage play. 

If I viewed pick 47 as being valuable then I wouldn't be arguing the point.

1 minute ago, Abe said:

if you compare Treloar vs Mitchell you're talking about a match winner vs an accumulator, bit like comparing Nathan Jones to Patrick Dangerfield in my opinion. 

I reckon if a legend of your club asks you for a trade you facilitate the move as best you can, and i reckon pick 47 is quite generous, MFC could quite rightly point out that the Hawks have just traded a "better" contracted player for essentially pick 88.

I was comparing Treloar to Mitchell as a way of highlighting how similar players can get outcomes with regards to draft picks that are poles apart.  Is Treloar that much better than Mitchell? 2 x pick 7 vs pick 14 alone. 

I don't regard the Sam Mitchell trade as having anything to do with this Lewis trade and I stated that earlier.   I believe the Hawks offloaded Sam for salary cap reasons and Lewis has become collateral damage as a consequence.

My value for Lewis would be at about pick 22 - 28 (which is a 2nd round pick) - whether the Hawks can get that remains to be seen.  You disagree so lets agree to disagree.  I rate Lewis as an elite player and if he stays injury free, I believe we can get 3 elite years out of him.  That's my 'blue-sky' bit. 

By the way, you're more likely to be right because I believe the clubs overrate draft picks too.  This is a very subjective discussion point where many people haven't been challenged before about their belief systems in drafting.

 

 

2 minutes ago, Macca said:

I wish I could give you examples but even if I did, it wouldn't change my view on what I believe a draft pick is worth.  A draft pick does not have a definite outcome especially in comparison to what an established A grade elite player can offer.  If you don't believe that Lewis can give us 3 elite years then we're going to have to disagree on that.  I believe he can.

I brought up the Treloar/Mitchell trades as an aside to highlight how those trades seemed to be lopsided in comparison to each other. 

The biggest issue here is the value of draft picks ... and that is a huge factor in this discussion.  Many have an unfailing belief in drafting so they see a 2nd round draft pick as a far more valuable commodity than I do.  So my pick 25 is their pick 47.   Pick 47 is a pick that may not return much in my eyes even though a pick at that number can turn up trumps.  But not often enough so I don't like the percentage play. 

If I viewed pick 47 as being valuable then I wouldn't be arguing the point.

I was comparing Treloar to Mitchell as a way of highlighting how similar players can get outcomes with regards to draft picks that are poles apart.  Is Treloar that much better than Mitchell? 2 x pick 7 vs pick 14 alone. 

I don't regard the Sam Mitchell trade as having anything to do with this Lewis trade and I stated that earlier.   I believe the Hawks offloaded Sam for salary cap reasons and Lewis has become collateral damage as a consequence.

My value for Lewis would be at about pick 22 - 28 (which is a 2nd round pick) - whether the Hawks can get that remains to be seen.  You disagree so lets agree to disagree.  I rate Lewis as an elite player and if he stays injury free, I believe we can get 3 elite years out of him.  That's my 'blue-sky' bit. 

By the way, you're more likely to be right because I believe the clubs overrate draft picks too.  This is a very subjective discussion point where many people haven't been challenged before about their belief systems in drafting.

 

 

I completely understand where you're coming from mate, if this decision is based on form alone he's worth a good pick, 2nd in the B&F of a top 3 side is pretty handy, i guess the biggest concern being how long can he keep playing for

7 minutes ago, Macca said:

I wish I could give you examples but even if I did, it wouldn't change my view on what I believe a draft pick is worth.  A draft pick does not have a definite outcome especially in comparison to what an established A grade elite player can offer.  If you don't believe that Lewis can give us 3 elite years then we're going to have to disagree on that.  I believe he can.

I brought up the Treloar/Mitchell trades as an aside to highlight how those trades seemed to be lopsided in comparison to each other. 

The biggest issue here is the value of draft picks ... and that is a huge factor in this discussion.  Many have an unfailing belief in drafting so they see a 2nd round draft pick as a far more valuable commodity than I do.  So my pick 25 is their pick 47.   Pick 47 is a pick that may not return much in my eyes even though a pick at that number can turn up trumps.  But not often enough so I don't like the percentage play. 

If I viewed pick 47 as being valuable then I wouldn't be arguing the point.

 

We're pretty much arguing the same point mate, but reaching a different conclusion.  This the beauty of this stuff!

Like I said - third round draft pick is a 0-10 year player.  Lewis is a 1-3 year player.  For the pick, the question is over quality, for Lewis it's over longevity.  The risks are comparable IMO, but I'll agree to disagree as you weight them differently.

Treloar is a 8-10 year player of high quality- the most valuable of the three by a long shot.  

BTW, In general I've always shared your view that supporters and club vastly overrate draft picks, especially earlier ones.  I did an on the back of an envelope type look once and the chances of picking a complete dud in the top 20 was about 50% - astronomically high.  I think my thinking in this case leads me to believe that perhaps the footy in public underrates the value of late picks (third round and beyond) though.  I've never done the study, but it wouldn't surprise me if the probably of getting a decent player in the third round was comparable to getting one in the first or second round.

32 minutes ago, ILLDieADemon said:

2nd rounder or 3rd round it doesn't matter because if we want to play finals next year a 31 year old A grader is going to help us get there ahead of an 18 year who will take 4 years to develop if they make it at all.

Im sick of drafting for the future, let's trade for next year for a change. 

Drafting for the future is what we have been doing for the past 10 year and it has got us nowhere!!

Spot on. 

We need a few players who have been there done that and am capable (sorry HL, CD). 

Not 100% on bringing in tomR but welcome the FD decision. Have been great the last 3 years

Hello everyone, I caught up with Lewis today and asked him the question that everyone wants answered.

Edited October 15, 20168 yr by Ethan Tremblay

54 minutes ago, Ted Fidge said:

 

The only sure thing in this trade is that it's going to get dark at night, and the sun's going to come up in the morning.

Well then nothing's sure Teddy, as you know the sun doesn't come up, the Earth turns to make it visible.

Suppose that means we will do no trades at all.

9 minutes ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

Hello everyone, I caught up with Lewis today and asked him the question that everyone wants answered.

Extraordinary work ET. Whilst the rest of us are merely surmising, you're in the thick of it. I look forward to the picture of Rockliff and you at a strip club.

10 minutes ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

Hello everyone, I caught up with Lewis today and asked him the question that everyone wants answered.

Waits for Saty to notice its photo shopped ?

24 minutes ago, Nasher said:

 BTW, In general I've always shared your view that supporters and club vastly overrate draft picks, especially earlier ones.  I did an on the back of an envelope type look once and the chances of picking a complete dud in the top 20 was about 50% - astronomically high.  I think my thinking in this case leads me to believe that perhaps the footy in public underrates the value of late picks (third round and beyond) though.  I've never done the study, but it wouldn't surprise me if the probably of getting a decent player in the third round was comparable to getting one in the first or second round.

And my two cents is that this is directy related to the age players are drafted. getting 17-18 year old kids is a raffle. So much cann change physically and mental between that age and say 21, 22. the NBA and NFL also has its share of busts but the college system and that fact that most players are 2- 22 hen drafted makes them much rarer - at least at the top end of the draft.

I don't know but i wonder if late picks are sometimes older players, like vanders and perhaps more predicable.

We would have been happy to have Thompson on a one year deal but Lewis.......3 Years......he is only 29....this is exciting. Think I'll go and play my personal trombone uncle bitter.

Just now, special robert said:

We would have been happy to have Thompson on a one year deal but Lewis.......3 Years......he is only 29....this is exciting. Think I'll go and play my personal trombone uncle bitter.

Not in the P76 Special .... and certainly not in the Merc.

Now go and get a job!