AFL National Draft 2014 Picks 2 & 3

[Guest]

What exactly is a "reach"?

Names such as Lucas Cook and Jordan Gysberts come to mind.

Remember this quote from BP?

"There was a bit of pressure with No.11 and expectation that we would go tall with that pick because it was seen as a pretty big need," he said. "Gysberts probably wasn't really rated that highly in the industry, and maybe a lot of people were surprised at the time." (http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/jordan-gysberts-key-to-melbournes-engine-room/story-e6frf9jf-1226081585751)

That, my friend, was the definition of a reach, and look how it panned out.

Now I have more faith in our current group of recruiters, but I still pray that we just pick two of Petracca/Brayshaw/McCartin.

Edited November 25, 2014 by Scythe

[Ouch! 2,250]

Didn't WJ or another poster attend a session with Taylor and other recruiting staff and from that.. and it was effectively that the picks would be used on one of the three that everyone is talking about. Brayshaw, Petracca and McCartin. Mahoney reaffirmed it with a comment that it would be out of those three and Wright perhaps. I would imagine that with the structures we have in place in the football department, that the recruiting staff will be making the call on the list, not the coaching staff.

I would be stunned if anything other than the three names mentioned above that the industry is talking about are not called out as 1, 2 and 3. The only interesting thing will be the order that this occurs.

The main reason for this is that you look at the last x number of drafts, and the media has gotten it correct for the top 3-4 players called each year and thats even with GWS and the Gold Coast dominating the draft early. Even the relative suprise of Ploughman and O'Rouke by GWS was 'known' by the media. SImple reason is that as much as the AFL want to keep such things secret, there are a lot more people involved with drafting than just the players.... agents, friends, family, recruiters, coaches ... it's not that hard for the media to get a sniff in terms of these top picks...

The draft evens out after the first handful of players, but the industry has been pretty clear that the top picks are a cut above for the last month or more... only players outside of the top three that would have been considered are Heeney and Moore who are both secured by the swans and the pies.

Edited November 25, 2014 by Ouch!

[jabberwocky 2,301]

So a "reach" is when a recruiter makes a pick that isn't in line with the wisdom of the phantom drafters.

I hope like hell that they base thier decision and pick the players available that we expect will have the best career.

Otherwise we are wasting a hell of a lot of money on recruiting.

If we don't pick Petrecca then there will be good reasons for it.

[Moneider96 1,045]

I'm very confident we will take Petracca now guys...Check this out

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-11-25/the-phantom-draft

Brayshaw: Pick 2

Petracca: Pick 3

[What 18,810]

Petracca seems like the kind of kid who will take it personally falling from pick 1 to pick 3, when he probably thought all along he was locked in at pick 1

Should be good motivation for him

[Norm Smith's Curse 2,562]

I'm finding this over-analysis of the draft a bit bizarre. To say an 18 year old holds a grudge about Neelds treatment seems unlikely as does a rift between the coaches and recruiters.

I for one am happy to see what unfolds as I have confidence that our decision makers are much better than we have ever had.

petracca said as much in an interview.

[nutbean 8,838]

Names such as Lucas Cook and Jordan Gysberts come to mind.

Remember this quote from BP?

"There was a bit of pressure with No.11 and expectation that we would go tall with that pick because it was seen as a pretty big need," he said. "Gysberts probably wasn't really rated that highly in the industry, and maybe a lot of people were surprised at the time." (http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/jordan-gysberts-key-to-melbournes-engine-room/story-e6frf9jf-1226081585751)

That, my friend, was the definition of a reach, and look how it panned out.

Now I have more faith in our current group of recruiters, but I still pray that we just pick two of Petracca/Brayshaw/McCartin.

For your argument I will give you the counter argument

From Gysberts draft 2009

In the top 10 - Scully, Trengove, Morabito ( injured I know), Rohan, Sheppherd, Butcher, Moore.

Bastinac, Fyffe and Lewis Jetta available with later picks

Recruiters looking back - "Geez I wish we had reached"

Interestingly, the 2010 draft - the informed commentators/journo's/TAC watchers did quite well with this draft - this draft has pretty much panned out correctly but it is one of the few that has.

Here's an interesting stat for you

From past drafts - from the top 3

Ill start at 2010 as it is not fair to judge later drafts as the kids are yet to really settle

2010 - Sam Day - showing glimpses but hasnt made it yet

2009 - Scully average at best, Trengove injuries and hasn't made it, Martin good last year but patchy previously

2008 - Watts ( insert comment here) NikNat - highlight reel stuff but consistent performer ? Hill - good footballer but consistently great ?

2007 - Kruezer ? Masten ?

2006 - Gibbs was great last year but has underperformed to that point, Gumbleton cruelled by injuries, Hansen - solid

2005 - Dale Thomas - a couple of really good seasons but injuries have plagued his last two years, Ellis - meh

2004 - this ones not too bad - Deledio, Roughy ( love him) and Griffin - I would suggest that Griffin good has been really good but he has been inconsistent and I am not sure that Deledio has been a fabulous no 1 draft pick.

If you were also to retrospectively pick your number one pick - not one of the footballers who went pick one would get the nod now.

So on 7 drafts what have we learned ? There was no reach in the top 3 and at least one of the three has not been up to scratch. So if the assessment is that McCartin, Petracca and Brayshaw are in most "experts" opinions the top 3 for this draft expect at least one of them to underwhelm maybe even two....

Edited November 25, 2014 by nutbean

[BarnDee 287]

I'm very confident we will take Petracca now guys...Check this out

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-11-25/the-phantom-draft

Brayshaw: Pick 2

Petracca: Pick 3

well I hope so that was my pick in the comp the club is running

[PaulRB 6,312]

For your argument I will give you the counter argument

From Gysberts draft 2009

In the top 10 - Scully, Trengove, Morabito ( injured I know), Rohan, Sheppherd, Butcher, Moore.

Bastinac, Fyffe and Lewis Jetta available with later picks

Recruiters looking back - "Geez I wish we had reached"

Interestingly, the 2010 draft - the informed commentators/journo's/TAC watchers did quite well with this draft - this draft has pretty much panned out correctly but it is one of the few that has.

Here's an interesting stat for you

From past drafts - from the top 3

Ill start at 2010 as it is not fair to judge later drafts as the kids are yet to really settle

2010 - Sam Day - showing glimpses but hasnt made it yet

2009 - Scully average at best, Trengove injuries and hasn't made it, Martin good last year but patchy previously

2008 - Watts ( insert comment here) NikNat - highlight reel stuff but consistent performer ? Hill - good footballer but consistently great ?

2007 - Kruezer ? Masten ?

2006 - Gibbs was great last year but has underperformed to that point, Gumbleton cruelled by injuries, Hansen - solid

2005 - Dale Thomas - a couple of really good seasons but injuries have plagued his last two years, Ellis - meh

2004 - this ones not too bad - Deledio, Roughy ( love him) and Griffin - I would suggest that Griffin good has been really good but he has been inconsistent and I am not sure that Deledio has been a fabulous no 1 draft pick.

If you were also to retrospectively pick your number one pick - not one of the footballers who went pick one would get the nod now.

So on 7 drafts what have we learned ? There was no reach in the top 3 and at least one of the three has not been up to scratch. So if the assessment is that McCartin, Petracca and Brayshaw are in most "experts" opinions the top 3 for this draft expect at least one of them to underwhelm maybe even two....

There is a recursive error in the logic of this analysis.

Top picks go to the worst clubs after their worst seasons.

So a top pick starting their career often has to deal with

• substandard club environment/culture/facilities (relative to top clubs),
• instability in terms of coach (bottom club often sack their coach or just have),
• a dearth of senior leadership on the field to model on or be protected by.
• intense and unrealistic pressure to perform early and lift his club out of the doldrums.

All of these factors come (in general) with being a top pick, and it's these factors that retard their development.

[Tough Kent 2,137]

How appropriate that Christian Petracca and Angus Brayshaw are rooming together up on the Gold Coast for the draft. Let's hope it's the first time of many that they will share a room over the next 15 years.

[Macca 16,773]

It's a bad system we have and all clubs will continue to pick players who become busts ... no amount of development can turn a D grade player into an A or B grader ...

Too much is blamed on the development side of things as well - it's as if people here have finally come to terms with the draft being largely flawed (and therefore a bit of a lottery) but need something else to blame.

A bad system will produce poor results on a constant basis ...

McLean - B grader at times

Sylvia - Lazy

Morton - just not any good

Watts - won't commit his body

Scully - is an average footballer (at best)

Trengove - cruelled by injuries

Hogan - hasn't played yet because of his back

Toumpas - too early to tell and has had an appendix issue

Tyson - so far, an excellent acquisition (I've put Tyson in because we partly gave up pick 2 for him)

Let's just hope we have a bit more luck this time around.

You put the above players into perfect systems and not much changes - in the end, it's up to the footballer himself to drive himself to be the best ... we've drafted a lot of players who don't possess that inner drive (and we didn't know that when we drafted them)

All being an excellent under 18 player means is that player is an excellent under 18 player - the next big step is largely up to the player concerned.

[nutbean 8,838]

There is a recursive error in the logic of this analysis.

Top picks go to the worst clubs after their worst seasons.

So a top pick starting their career often has to deal with

• substandard club environment/culture/facilities (relative to top clubs),
• instability in terms of coach (bottom club often sack their coach or just have),
• a dearth of senior leadership on the field to model on or be protected by.
• intense and unrealistic pressure to perform early and lift his club out of the doldrums.

All of these factors come (in general) with being a top pick, and it's these factors that retard their development.

Spot on - but the result nevertheless is the same.

[rpfc 28,087]

Well said, Macca.

The players that deal with the nonsense and get on with it - do so.

Jones has shown the way in that regard, but Garland has made the most of himself as well, and I not about to say that are development has been great, nor the circumstances at the club stable, nor that we have had appropriate senior players for the lowly years, but the state of the list comes back to the talent picked at the draft.

And it hasn't been strong at all.

[Good Times Grimes 2,396]

Whatever happens, it's fun to watch the Saints supporters having a major meltdown on BigFooty.

Edited November 25, 2014 by Good Times Grimes

[binman 42,169]

Lever and McCartin. that could all be thrown in the bin with McCartin going No. 1

Don't worry Demoneeyes. i'm with you. We will get Petracca and Brayshaw (i hope). If so your prediction that we would have taken Lever over PM will remain untested and i will choose to believe your assertion (and your sources) that we would have.

Mids, mids and more mids please

[binman 42,169]

Whatever happens, it's fun to watch the Saints supporters having a major meltdown on BigFooty.

I was just thinking that in a parallel saints universe to DL the cries of angst will ring out when Petraca burns it up from the get go whilst Paddy takes a few years to hit his straps.

[Good Times Grimes 2,396]

I feel for McCartin...he will have a fair bit of work to do to win over Saints supporters that had their hearts set on Petracca. Some already seem to hate him without ever having seen him play a game!

[dazzledavey36 53,478]

I feel for McCartin...he will have a fair bit of work to do to win over Saints supporters that had their hearts set on Petracca. Some already seem to hate him without ever having seen him play a game!

Agree they are a putrid bunch of supporters.

[ChaserJ 4,836]

http://www.sen.com.au/news/have-the-saints-changed-their-mind

[Knucklhead 3]

There is a recursive error in the logic of this analysis.

Top picks go to the worst clubs after their worst seasons.

So a top pick starting their career often has to deal with

• substandard club environment/culture/facilities (relative to top clubs),
• instability in terms of coach (bottom club often sack their coach or just have),
• a dearth of senior leadership on the field to model on or be protected by.
• intense and unrealistic pressure to perform early and lift his club out of the doldrums.

All of these factors come (in general) with being a top pick, and it's these factors that retard their development.

Possibly the best post I've read in 2014.

[beelzebub 23,254]

There is a recursive error in the logic of this analysis.

Top picks go to the worst clubs after their worst seasons.

So a top pick starting their career often has to deal with

• substandard club environment/culture/facilities (relative to top clubs),
• instability in terms of coach (bottom club often sack their coach or just have),
• a dearth of senior leadership on the field to model on or be protected by.
• intense and unrealistic pressure to perform early and lift his club out of the doldrums.

All of these factors come (in general) with being a top pick, and it's these factors that retard their development.

there is ...in general as you suggest , all of the above

but having pointed those things out there is also that our facilities are in reality as good as any

We actually are probably about as stable as you can get re coaching ..We know where we're going and with whom

Senior leadership ? I think this has been addressed . Possibly not quite there yet but far better than in recent past

As to pressure to perform , Roos is on record as saying he'll take the blow torches away and let them feel their way into the seniors.

In a sense my biggest concern is that as many years worth of picks seem to suggest the early kids go bust it would just be our luck we'd squib it only to see the 'expected' gems actually go gangbusters

[Adam The God 29,690]

By that stellar logic, Toumpas has made the grade too then.

And our friend Isaac Weetra.

[PaulRB 6,312]

there is ...in general as you suggest , all of the above

but having pointed those things out there is also that our facilities are in reality as good as any

We actually are probably about as stable as you can get re coaching ..We know where we're going and with whom

Senior leadership ? I think this has been addressed . Possibly not quite there yet but far better than in recent past

As to pressure to perform , Roos is on record as saying he'll take the blow torches away and let them feel their way into the seniors.

In a sense my biggest concern is that as many years worth of picks seem to suggest the early kids go bust it would just be our luck we'd squib it only to see the 'expected' gems actually go gangbusters

YES! and hopefully this time we can Kick Ass!

[PartyBoy 173]

As an absolute hypothetical - IF Frawley had stayed meaning pick 2 only and MCaartin went pick 1

Who would we choose?

[Mousey 47]

As an absolute hypothetical - IF Frawley had stayed meaning pick 2 only and MCaartin went pick 1

Who would we choose?

I would choose Brayshaw.

My preferred 2 and 3 is Brayshaw and McCartin.

Will be happy with Brayshaw and whoever the club rates though.