Can Melbourne win a premiership with its current list?

[Pennant St Dee 13,251]

No but that is not having a shot at the club because Richmond, North, Lions, Saints, Essendon, GWS, Suns, Port & Dogs can't either. Come 2014 & I think Geelong and Freo will join the group because a lot has to go right for the two of them to even get close this season.

Flags are very hard to win even with good sides, Richmond, North, Essendon & Brisbane are considered years ahead of us but things can turn very quickly. I like the way we have stopped pissing about got ourselves a decent footy department who seem to be getting some professionalism and a decent culture amongst the playing group. We have the makings of a very good forward line and call me biased but in Chip and Tom Mac we have two potentially very good key position defenders.

For me everything relies on how quickly Trenners, Jimmy Toumpas, Viney, Blease, Jetta and Watts take the next steps. Jones stepped up last year and if he continues will be close to A Grade, I get laughed at by Meth Coast supporters when I say as bad as we are we are still not that far away if we get things right. IMO we do have the nucleus of 12/15 good players who could form part of a tilt at the flag. If Hogan turns out to be what I think he can I believe we will fast track very quickly and jump over a few of the so called next generation of up and coming contenders

[dum dee dum 44]

I don't think it's got as much to do with talent on your list as belief and desire to "go all the way."

I don't think this list really believes in itself. When something like the second quarter yesterday against St Kilda happens, there is such a belief in loss within the group, a feeling of "here we go again", that is so very hard to change.

Some people talk about development but when yesterdays second quarter happens what the hell do you reckon is going through these young players heads, they are being schooled in LOSS!

Some people talk about needing a type of player, a small forward or an elite midfielder. But this is totally wrong because you need to change the "culture" before anything else otherwise any new players just get swallowed up in the sense of LOSS pervading the joint.

Neeld is trying to change things but if yesterdays second quarter is anything to go by very little has changed for the better this year. St Kilda are a team that went close to the ultimate. They know about self belief. In the second quarter they stepped up and put the contest to bed. Their belief system says "we aren't going to lose to lowly Melbourne" and we rolled over like always because "we believe" that is whats going to happen. To change this belief system of the football world is really hard because you have to beat teams when they have pencilled in wins against you. If some teams, for instance Richmond or North, lose to us this year it may derail their whole season and obvious finals aspirations. There is a vested interest by these clubs to in Melbournes case keep the status quo, to stay above us. We as a club have become such light weights, even the tanking fiasco and its bizzare findings make us look rather sad and pathetic. This "perception" filters through everyone and everything and we all as a result carry a burden.

Jim Stynes gave us belief. But boy we've been battered back down again.

Back to on field though. To change this mind set Neeld is doing the right thing, you have to turn over the obvious non- believers. But beyond that you need a core group of players that will stop at nothing to succeed and they will carry the rest along. Do Melbourne have these types on its list? I have faith in Grimes to never give up, Viney has good character. But boy the task is daunting.

Do I as a supporter have belief? No.

Success like loss is infectious. And we as a club have full blown aids.

[Dees2014 2,377]

reread my post. As the list stands no...with the last of the slowcoaches and nqrs purged (at eos) we will have a list to go on with . Currently its not quite there.

Yes, I think we can make the top four if certain things happen and they are big ifs:

1. We get ourselves a young very large dominant mobile ruckman who is capable of dominating sides. I think a fit Max Gawn could be that person if he can stay injury free. He is mobile, the second tallest in the AFL. He has the potential to develop into an A grader;

2. Watts becomes the superstar we all believe he can be;

3. Several of our top 1st round draft picks develop into A graders: I would nominate Trengove, Hogan, Viney, toumpas, Grimes, Jones, tapscott, Frawley

4. Several second and third rounders, develop into Aand B graders. The ones I think have the potential to do this are MacDonald, Barry, Bleese, Garland, Jetta, Dunne, Howe

5. The new attack of Clark, Hogan, Dawes, tapscott, Davey, Howe develops to its potential. In my view we have the potential to be the best in the league here. Incidentally, with Clark, Dawes and a mature Hogan, as well of course the high flying Howe, it will allow us to us a lot longer kicking gameplay, where the likes of Dunne, tapscott, toumpas and even Kent become a lot more important - long kicking players all of them. That will in turn encourage us to use the corridor more, not unlike North Melbourne in the Carey years and seemingly the Buckley coached collingwood. I must say our forward line in 2 years will be a lot more potent than Collingwood's today. We can all see Hogan's huge potential: I counted five potential contested overhead marks which could have been paid to Jesse at the weekend and with a different umpire may have been. He is very close and in 12 months time after a year at Casey and training with the seniors he will hold them and several more. A huge bonus for us.

The weakness though remains the midfield. For us to get top four we need Trengove, Gawn, Grimes, jones, Watts, Viney, toumpas and maybe tapscott to all become A graders.

If all of the above happens then I predict top 6 in 2014, and premiers 2015. Around 10th or so this year though I suspect.

[Young Dee 1,303]

I think it all depends on the time period, if Melbourne can get to a position of winning a premiership in the next decade, we will have to do it whilst the likes of Sylvia, Clark, Jones, Frawely, Dawes etc are at the club. These players are currently leading the team and in 5 - 7 years time they will be retiering. I realise that Neeld is planning to build a team that has continued success with a list of varying ages - (Clark, Jones, Trengove, Grimes, Hogan, Viney, Toumpus) but I believe we need thouse mature (mid 20's) players to be in our premiership window and preferably no older than 28 or 29.

If we really do want to win a premiership with this group I think we may have to trade some of this years draft picks for players that can have an impact now.

[Hannibal 5,814]

If all of Clark, Viney, Toumpas, Frawley, Hogan, Blease, Trengove, Howe, McDonald, Kent, Jones, and Barry become A graders at the same time then we're a chance. That's half the team and I believe that all of those players have the capacity to be A graders. That's how you win a flag.

Edited March 10, 2013 by Ben-Hur

[Demon Stalwart 255]

Win a Premiership ? No

Steal one yes .!

At least that would be the response from the media should Melbourne actually win one.

Unlike many here I dont know how Melbourne will go this year

I hope to see a substaintial increase in our success rate at the end of the season , if we get that I'll be fairly happy .

Should we reach the finals I would be over the moon .

If we were somehow lucky enough to play in the Grand Final, I think my Bar Cabinet would take a real knock

If we actually got up and won the premiership, I think Id proberbly be better of watching it from a hospital bed with my Family by my bedside

Should we win at least the DEFIBRILLATOR would be nice and handy

[Whispering_Jack 30,260]

If all of Clark, Viney, Toumpas, Frawley, Hogan, Blease, Trengove, Howe, McDonald, Kent, Jones, and Barry all become A graders at the same time then we're a chance. That's half the team and I believe that all of those players have the capacity to be A graders. That's how you win a flag.

I suppose it's stating the obvious but we'll know we're getting close to winning a premiership if we start talking about players of the calibre of those mentioned and we don't have to use the word "if" any more.

It's an indictment on the coaching and football development at this club over the past decade that, by and large, too many players have failed to live up to potential and never managed to step up to the elite levels suggested by their natural talent. At least we're now investing in this area so we have the opportunity to remove the "if" from the equation.

[Maldonboy38 6,405]

The simple answer is no.

We have a B+ back line that has options to float through like Jetta, Strauss, and I reckon Tynan will be a fine footballer.

Our forward line looks strong, but we need a small crumbing forward - I hope Byrnes fires up for this role - and we need a mid-size forward like LeCras to provide further, dangerous options. Howe is potentially a great player but we need more options. Probably rate our forward line a B-.

Our midfield remains the hotspot. Probably rate it a C or C- . Jones is wonderful and now we need Viney, Toumpas, Blease and Trengove to shine.

Looking back over recent years I maintain my opinion that although our recruiting could have been better, it was our player development that was our downfall. Colin Sylvia remains a perfect example. At Geelong, Hawthorn or the Filth he would be a premiership player, and all-Australian, and maybe even a Brownlow medalist. We need our 50-games-or-less players to be developed well, adn then we can press for finals.

Our X-factor is Neale Craig. His player development work at the crows is showing fruit now and it looks first class.

I predict our last 11 games this season will show some great signs of development, and finals in 2014.

[DemonWA 3,936]

I have no interest in crystal balling about whether our list can win a flag. I dont even know if we can beat sides like Port, North, Lions and Suns!

Baby steps!

[At Least I Saw a Flag 5,252]

Dream on.

[dpositive 1,670]

I don't think it's got as much to do with talent on your list as belief and desire to "go all the way."

I don't think this list really believes in itself. When something like the second quarter yesterday against St Kilda happens, there is such a belief in loss within the group, a feeling of "here we go again", that is so very hard to change.

Some people talk about development but when yesterdays second quarter happens what the hell do you reckon is going through these young players heads, they are being schooled in LOSS!

Some people talk about needing a type of player, a small forward or an elite midfielder. But this is totally wrong because you need to change the "culture" before anything else otherwise any new players just get swallowed up in the sense of LOSS pervading the joint.

Neeld is trying to change things but if yesterdays second quarter is anything to go by very little has changed for the better this year. St Kilda are a team that went close to the ultimate. They know about self belief. In the second quarter they stepped up and put the contest to bed. Their belief system says "we aren't going to lose to lowly Melbourne" and we rolled over like always because "we believe" that is whats going to happen. To change this belief system of the football world is really hard because you have to beat teams when they have pencilled in wins against you. If some teams, for instance Richmond or North, lose to us this year it may derail their whole season and obvious finals aspirations. There is a vested interest by these clubs to in Melbournes case keep the status quo, to stay above us. We as a club have become such light weights, even the tanking fiasco and its bizzare findings make us look rather sad and pathetic. This "perception" filters through everyone and everything and we all as a result carry a burden.

Jim Stynes gave us belief. But boy we've been battered back down again.

Back to on field though. To change this mind set Neeld is doing the right thing, you have to turn over the obvious non- believers. But beyond that you need a core group of players that will stop at nothing to succeed and they will carry the rest along. Do Melbourne have these types on its list? I have faith in Grimes to never give up, Viney has good character. But boy the task is daunting.

Do I as a supporter have belief? No.

Success like loss is infectious. And we as a club have full blown aids.

Liked all of this but the last answer

Do I as a supporter have belief?No MY answer is YES for all of your presented arguments.

We need to see how our coach steps up for his on field structures and actions.

We may have developed poorly but we have been developing for many years and we do have a list with comparable capacity to other sides we are young but that provides some enthusiasm and freshness that can be chanelled. Its the older stronger bodies that must put in and support that group.

I see Sylvia as very important this year .

The coach must tell him and others in that generation that they are not losers although they can leave the game that way if they choose They can be winners and part of a winning team if they desire, the lesser players have the ability and the desire they just need some leadership. This comes from the coach and I reckon he may be able to do it. It comes from the culture and even we as supporters have to embrace and promote it.

I have always started each season, each crop of recruits, each coach, each administration, each 5 year plan with similar optimism. It hasnt done me any good and my footy tipping reputation is RS. but I always have had the optimism of the next year I hope for a great ride but know we need some success to ensure our survival and as Fitzroy showed that must be a premiership not close.

SO Im thinkin if Neeld is as good as I hope we can do anything Lets have the playing group showing that and not dropping off when they have some adversity.

Rant over!

[Older demon 2,741]

No

Still too early and I am yet to see what I call our definitive game plan. It appears that the addition of Clark, Dawes, Sellar and Pederson up forward suggests Neeld wants it longer into the forward line and as yet I haven't determined how the coaching panel plan to move the ball out of defence.

Last season was a nonsense and no judge.

Will Neeld be innovative like Clarkson and have different games styles. Does he have Malthouses ability to design a defensive game plan around the personel he has? Will we mimic the defensive overlap style of Adelaide under Craig?

This season will tell us part of the story and then we can decide how bright the future is. Personally I don't like the current chip chip chip around the boundary stuff shown in the NAB cup and worry when we will ever see Clarke and Dawes operating together.

[Young Dee 1,303]

While I think a good 'game plan' is important, I do think that it is highly overrated. Yes a good game plan will improve the team but in the end it is going to be the players instinct, fitness, skill etc that will get the team over the line. For much of the start of the 2012 season all our players seemed to do was try and kick a long ball along the boundary which would almost always result in a scramble of players at the end of the kick. The opposition would either out muscle us or use their numbers to then launch another attack inside 50. I think towards the end of last year and what we have seen from the preseason is that the players are now willing to take some risks, go down the middle of the ground (like dunns kick on weekend), the players are starting to link up with leads and not just kick the ball as high and far as possible. I believe this is a sign that Neeld has accepted the fact that his original game plan would not work, it was predictable and the ball movement was slow.

If we can begin to have chains of possessions and take the game on like Hawthorn then we would already look a different team (we can only do that if our team has good fitness, decision making and disposal).

[P-man 13,366]

While I think a good 'game plan' is important, I do think that it is highly overrated. Yes a good game plan will improve the team but in the end it is going to be the players instinct, fitness, skill etc that will get the team over the line. For much of the start of the 2012 season all our players seemed to do was try and kick a long ball along the boundary which would almost always result in a scramble of players at the end of the kick. The opposition would either out muscle us or use their numbers to then launch another attack inside 50. I think towards the end of last year and what we have seen from the preseason is that the players are now willing to take some risks, go down the middle of the ground (like dunns kick on weekend), the players are starting to link up with leads and not just kick the ball as high and far as possible. I believe this is a sign that Neeld has accepted the fact that his original game plan would not work, it was predictable and the ball movement was slow.

If we can begin to have chains of possessions and take the game on like Hawthorn then we would already look a different team (we can only do that if our team has good fitness, decision making and disposal).

Agreed. It was evident in the Saints match that there was a bit more diversity in how we took the game on. We weren't just bombing it long as plan A without a plan B, or immediately going to the boundary. Players were lowering their eyes and being provided with leads. There was an actual willingness to use the corridor, shock horror, which we have in fact seen throughout the NAB.

Bottom line is we had more disposals than the Saints. Never would have believed that to be the case. If we can actually use the ball through the middle this year, that in itself will be an improvement.

All that said, I have definitely fallen for Dunny's torps. They are brilliant.

[Hannibal 5,814]

The answer has to be yes. If Sydney can rebuild in 7 years (only 4 players from the 2005 flag) and win a flag with inferior draft choices then there's no doubt that the core of our list has the capacity to win a flag. Obviously it doesn't mean we will, but the capacity is there.

[Lord Travis 10,749]

Not until we get more talent into the midfield. We need players who work hard and can be damaging both ways. At present we have few players who can do this. We have a few players who can attack but can't defend (eg Sylvia), and a few who can defend but can't attack (eg Mckenzie). We need good all-round midfielders who work hard and have the skills to do what is necessary. We could have Buddy Franklin and Jack Reiwoldt up forward at present and still lose every week. The game is won and lost in the midfield and until our midfield is good enough and firing, everything else is irrelevant.

[Whispering_Jack 30,260]

A good case study might be the comparison between two young speedsters in Sam Blease and David Zaharakis who were both selected in the 2008 AFL National Draft.

During the Under 18 Championships of that year, one of our many deficiencies was considered lack of pace through the midfield and two players identified in the Vic Metro team were Blease (a bottom ager) and Zaharakis. In fact, I had my eyes on the latter the year before when it was suggested in the media that Melbourne was interested in selecting him with one of the late picks that were eventually used on Kyle Cheney and Tom McNamara.

Blease really impressed me at the championships and he was eventually selected at 17, just ahead of Luke Shuey who went to West Coast. Zaharakis went at 23, Jack Redden at 25, Dayne Beams and Daniel Hannebery at 29 and 30 respectively and Rory Sloane, who made the Sheahan top 50 today (as did Beams), was taken at 44. Given that we also had pick 19 which was used on James Strauss, our recruiting effort that year was, on the face of it, rather unspectacular to say the absolute least.

Of course, the blokes we drafted that year have had their issues and Blease suffered that debilitating schoolyard injury but we really do need he and Jack Watts, Strauss and Nev Jetta to come of age this year to avoid the embarrassment of a badly flawed piece of recruiting (and we've had a few of those!)

Meanwhile, Zaharakis took no time to get into the limelight at Essendon. Watch him tonight on FOX Footy's 30 minute thrillers starring in an Anzac Day clash for Essendon.

And, he's won a b & f with the Bombers.

We need our players to step up to the plate early in their careers and progress and develop far better than in the past.

[old dee 23,801]

Spot on WJ admittly two of them have very bad leg breaks.

But I believe 2013 is put up or shut up time for the four you mention.

[mjt 640]

Spot on WJ admittly two of them have very bad leg breaks.

But I believe 2013 is put up or shut up time for the four you mention.

Thats what happens when you recruit jump jockeys, it amazes me how L Shuey went around the same time as Blease and Strauss, Blease will be a decent player but he will never be as good as Shuey, its staggering that BP could get it so wrong.

Edited March 11, 2013 by mjt

[Cheap Seats 3,310]

The key fundemntal to recruiting for the MFC at the time of BP was athletes not footballers.

Football went a different direction to what BP, DB wanted - they lost their jobs - there is not much to debat really.

Football in 2013 is about winning the contested footy - lets hope our current recruiters can keep up with where footy is going

[old dee 23,801]

The key fundemntal to recruiting for the MFC at the time of BP was athletes not footballers.

Football went a different direction to what BP, DB wanted - they lost their jobs - there is not much to debat really.

Football in 2013 is about winning the contested footy - lets hope our current recruiters can keep up with where footy is going

And we have been left holding the bag for the next few years until we recover UH.

But yes the debate on those years has ended for all to now see.

[Macca 17,016]

The key fundemntal to recruiting for the MFC at the time of BP was athletes not footballers.

Football went a different direction to what BP, DB wanted - they lost their jobs - there is not much to debat really.

Football in 2013 is about winning the contested footy - lets hope our current recruiters can keep up with where footy is going

The sport has always been about contested footy. One of the prime reasons we were a terrible team in the Bailey years was because we were deficient at 'hard ball gets', clearances and contested footy.

Meanwhile, down at the Cattery, they were the best in those key areas .... except, many didn't really notice. We all saw the finished product from Geelong and the fantastic ball movement but they were the premier team with regards to contested possessions, hard ball gets and clearances. The stats back it up and besides, it was easy to see.

A few coaches have tried to copy the Geelong model but their teams often left out the one key ingredient. Winning first use of the ball.

Edited March 11, 2013 by Macca

[old dee 23,801]

The sport has always been about contested footy. One of the prime reasons we were a terrible team in the Bailey years was because we were deficient at 'hard ball gets', clearances and contested footy.

Meanwhile, down at the Cattery, they were the best in those key areas .... except, nobody really noticed. We all saw the finished product from Geelong and the fantastic ball movement but they were the premier team with regards to contested possessions, hard ball gets and clearances. The stats back it up and besides, it was easy to see.

You are right Macca.

DB and the recruiting gambled on a game style that he thought would be where AFL would go.

He lost big time and the gamble will have confined us to the bottom half of the ladder for a decade

[Cheap Seats 3,310]

The sport has always been about contested footy. One of the prime reasons we were a terrible team in the Bailey years was because we were deficient at 'hard ball gets', clearances and contested footy.

Meanwhile, down at the Cattery, they were the best in those key areas .... except, nobody really noticed. We all saw the finished product from Geelong and the fantastic ball movement but they were the premier team with regards to contested possessions, hard ball gets and clearances. The stats back it up.

I hear what you're saying Macca... but from what i've heard a lot of recruiting is based on athletiic ability and has nothing to do with football.. You can argue all day about what is more important - recruiting or development, the simple fact is our list is so far behind the rest of the competition.

You'd think it would be obvious to the people in charge - and this is why I'll give Neeld time to develop the list as those Key stats you point out Macca are a KPI of Neeld

Everyone has their own opinions on footy - I'd like to see us lose the soft tag and build a Swans type culture - It won't happen overnight....... and unfortunetly it will be us supporters who suffer before the good times

[Cheap Seats 3,310]

And we have been left holding the bag for the next few years until we recover UH.

But yes the debate on those years has ended for all to now see.

Not sure what to say Old Dee

We can't change the past now....... all we can do is move forward