The Viney pick - another plan to force him to the 2nd round

[Cheesecake 92]

No. That is near impossible to prove as a certain fact, unless they state publicly that they are doing it to shaft us (as opposed to nominating JV because the say they want him). Whereas us talking to clubs about a deal before a draft with the express purpose of manipulating picks would be clear draft tampering. I'm guessing that bitter 'n twisted Sheepy would dob on us if we attempted this.

Fair call. Guess I'm just trying to promote a little thinking outside the square on this one. I can't help but think there is a near-watertight solution to this .. somewhere in the ether. If only we could nail it, send it to the club, and watch with joy and pride on draft day as the club uses our method to secure three picks in the top twelve, and JV. Wishful thinking?

[Bossdog 2,002]

I think that the club needs Viney at what pick it takes, be that 3 or 2nd round....He has a body that can play against men right from the start.....I will admit that I have only seen the other top draft hopefuls in the Champs.....most of them are skinny 18yo's...that I feel will take two or three years to have an influence......

[Ouch! 2,262]

I think GWS are the form side out of all 3, they only need to win 1 game and they should.

Ok, sorry? GWS are the form side out of all 3 teams? Before beating Port they had lost their previous 5 games by an average of 118 points. They beat Port who are struggling badly, and don't travel well at the best of times, but the win over them at home makes them the form side of the three of us?

Really?

... wow

Do people honestly think GWS will beat GC up at Metricon? Only way I could see that would be 'resting' Ablett & Bennell, and that won't happen... Of all the games that GC play for the rest of the season I reckon this is the one that they will want to make sure they win, they lost the first game and pride alone should dictate that they want to even the ledger against the other expansion club.

GC will beat GWS @ home, the only chance GWS have of finishing 17th will come the following week against us @ Manuka Oval, but they don't have a home ground advantage to rely on there, and I can't see that happening either. Base your logic on GWS finishing last guys, even if GC finishing last helps with romantic notions regarding 'gentleman' agreements to secure JV (Still feel we will get him for 2nd round regardless, too much at stake for even Sheedy and his antics to disrupt.)

Ladder

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MFC

GC

GWS

Edited August 7, 2012 by Oucher

[rpfc 28,383]

Yes, it does. And I totally respect why some might not like that.

BUT ... the chance of that eventuating is slim, and we effectively get pick 2. Not bad.

So lose Viney but go up one place in the draft?

I don't like it.

[Cheesecake 92]

So lose Viney but go up one place in the draft?

I don't like it.

Instead of getting Viney at the club, we get whoever we choose at pick 2. That's not quite losing Viney to go up one place in the draft. It's swapping Viney for pick 2, which, while I totally respect is not very palatable to some supporters, isn't really that bad. Virtually no one outside of this forum rates Viney top two.

Also, the only way to ensure this doesn't happen, is to pick Viney at 3, no matter what happens. If that is your view, then fair enough, but not sure it really adds anything to my original jist of this thread, which was to look laterally at what we could do to get our cake and eat it too.

[Miles from Nowhere 199]

Why is Joe Daniher never mentioned in the Shiddy wish list? He would be conflicted over his Bummer promise, but surely would like to have another member of the family. And he has to be a first round pick.

[Bossdog 2,002]

Both GWS and GC will make Ess use their first pick on him....He is worth pick 12 and Ess will stil pick up a bargain

[Clark_Kent 315]

Why is Joe Daniher never mentioned in the Shiddy wish list? He would be conflicted over his Bummer promise, but surely would like to have another member of the family. And he has to be a first round pick.

It doesn't matter because everyone knows the bombers will take him with the first pick. The problem

with us our first pick is so low that it could possible be paying 'overs' whereas the bombers are

already getting a good deal even if they finish 9th.

[DemonWA 3,933]

Lads, just becasue viney didnt dominate in the carnival doesnt mean he isnt a top 3-5 selection in the draft IMO. We've picked guys who have had good carnivals before and its clearly not the be all and end all. He has all of the 'un-teachable' attributes which will hold him in good stead for a long career in AFL footy - desire to succeed, he loves the contest, doesnt shy away from body contact =, reads the play well etc

I think we take him when we have to, and if thats with pick 4 so be it.

[rpfc 28,383]

Instead of getting Viney at the club, we get whoever we choose at pick 2. That's not quite losing Viney to go up one place in the draft. It's swapping Viney for pick 2, which, while I totally respect is not very palatable to some supporters, isn't really that bad. Virtually no one outside of this forum rates Viney top two.

Also, the only way to ensure this doesn't happen, is to pick Viney at 3, no matter what happens. If that is your view, then fair enough, but not sure it really adds anything to my original jist of this thread, which was to look laterally at what we could do to get our cake and eat it too.

I would prefer to ensure Viney in the second round by engineering surreptitious deals with GC and GWS.

This bluffing stuff is naive and I if we did take Viney at 3 it would effectively be at 4 as we have the next pick.

Virtually no-one would spurn the tough-as-nails, instantly top 5 midfielder at the club, son of a great because he was worth Pick 5 but not Pick 4.

[Bossdog 2,002]

Instead of getting Viney at the club, we get whoever we choose at pick 2. That's not quite losing Viney to go up one place in the draft. It's swapping Viney for pick 2, which, while I totally respect is not very palatable to some supporters, isn't really that bad. Virtually no one outside of this forum rates Viney top two.

Also, the only way to ensure this doesn't happen, is to pick Viney at 3, no matter what happens. If that is your view, then fair enough, but not sure it really adds anything to my original jist of this thread, which was to look laterally at what we could do to get our cake and eat it too.

Can you be sure that those touted as being better than Viney, will be......We know he can play... we know he can play against men.....we know how he plays.....Its what we are crying out for.....If we give him up for a so called 18yo skinny kid I'll spew up...

[volders 22]

FWIW Knightmare (Bigfooty poster, puts up a Phantom draft every year, has great knowledge on potential draftees) has Viney as the fourth best player (Behind Daniher, O'Meera and Whitfield) so the 2nd best available for us. Based on that the discussion is kind of moot since if they want a midfielder whoever has pick 2 will nominate him. Hopefully they are after a ruckman, ie. Grundy or more of an outside midfielder. I see no reason for them to nominate Viney if they don't want him, it doesn't help them in anyway unless they trade for pick 5-8 or something ridiculous.

[Cheesecake 92]

I would prefer to ensure Viney in the second round by engineering surreptitious deals with GC and GWS.

This bluffing stuff is naive and I if we did take Viney at 3 it would effectively be at 4 as we have the next pick.

Virtually no-one would spurn the tough-as-nails, instantly top 5 midfielder at the club, son of a great because he was worth Pick 5 but not Pick 4.

Yep, I agree with you there. I've no issue with Viney at 4 if he is rated around 5 to 7.

Still want my cake and to eat it too.

Also, I don't agree that bluffing is naive. Each side with do a risk vs reward analysis before making each choice in every draft. It's our job to make sure they are up at nights worrying about the risk.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,207]

FWIW Knightmare (Bigfooty poster, puts up a Phantom draft every year, has great knowledge on potential draftees) has Viney as the fourth best player (Behind Daniher, O'Meera and Whitfield) so the 2nd best available for us. Based on that the discussion is kind of moot since if they want a midfielder whoever has pick 2 will nominate him. Hopefully they are after a ruckman, ie. Grundy or more of an outside midfielder. I see no reason for them to nominate Viney if they don't want him, it doesn't help them in anyway unless they trade for pick 5-8 or something ridiculous.

Both GC & GWS would love a player like Viney to complement their midfield. Let's face it, it would be great to get Viney with a second round pick but there is a less than 5% chance that this will happen. Let's just be happy that we are guaranteed this kid who is exactly what we need and resign ourselves to the fact he is going pick 3 - anything else is a bonus.

In fact the only way I could see him slipping to the second round is if GWS beat GC giving GC pick 1, GWS pick 2 and us pick 3 & 4. This would make it unlikely GC would bid for him and if GWS can be convinced that we would trade pick 3 or 4 for MD#1 if we can take Viney second round (but not if we have to use pick 3 on him) they may see it as beneficial to let him slide. Otherwise I just can't see it happening.

[jnrmac 20,058]

You're also conveniently forgetting the fact that your plan involves what the AFL call 'draft tampering', something that if we are found guilty of doing could cost us a lot more than this exercise might be worth...

I don't think your plan involves draft tampering. It would be more serious like a player faking a big injury in order to scare off other teams. In effect we have already stated (somewhere that I read) that we would not be taking Viney with our first pick. That is already out there so if GWS wants to bid they will get him.

And there is now way GWS would do a deal with us. They could not be trusted in any case,

[daisycutter 29,613]

Whilst I think Jack Viney is great and will be a ready-to-play type we still don't know whether his dominance at junior levels will translate to AFL levels

On the doubtful side is his height and speed which will stand out more in senior level

For this reason I think his true draft position should be outside the top 10.

just saying (and ducking)

[FarNorthernD 5,861]

You are a Machiavellian lot.

GWS and GC will only nominate him if they rate him in the top few players. This is good news for us. A professional club will not play silly buggers with pick 2 in the draft. If the roles were reversed would you want Melbourne to bid pick 2 on a player they only rated internally as pick 8?

Todd and Jack will have a good idea where Jack is in the pecking order and no doubt the club recruiters have conveyed their thoughts.

i have no idea where various clubs rate Jack but if we have to use pick 3 on him it will be because he is worth pick 3.

[Clark_Kent 315]

I have been looking at the 3 sides at the bottom GC,GWS and us.

I think GWS will win this w/e due to the high number of injuries at GC which will leave

them on the same amount of wins as us.

This would then set up a game between us and GWS as the one that determines who finishes

17th and 16th. With our injury list growing and the likely hood we may put a few players in the sheds

for the remainder of the year we are no certainty to win that one.

[rpfc 28,383]

Whilst I think Jack Viney is great and will be a ready-to-play type we still don't know whether his dominance at junior levels will translate to AFL levels

On the doubtful side is his height and speed which will stand out more in senior level

For this reason I think his true draft position should be outside the top 10.

just saying (and ducking)

His speed is fine and his height? If I had lambasted someone for their height you would be the first person to say something akin to Sam Mitchell with his hand at the top of his head saying "You have to this tall to play the game effing well."

[skills32 229]

Knowing our draft history,

if we take JV at 3 then our second pick will be a flop or

if we take JV with our second pick then pick no 3 be injury prone a la 4-6 Smith.

[volders 22]

Whilst I think Jack Viney is great and will be a ready-to-play type we still don't know whether his dominance at junior levels will translate to AFL levels

On the doubtful side is his height and speed which will stand out more in senior level

For this reason I think his true draft position should be outside the top 10.

just saying (and ducking)

Really competitive and hard inside midfield. Could have joined an AFL club as a 17 year old and been a regular. Not a big fella, but purely and simply he is the hardest player I’ve seen coming through the system and his attack on the ball, attack on the man and aggression on the field is without equal and the big reason why he is such a dominant player already. Wins all the hard, contested ball and as a 17 year old was doing better than most of the 18 year olds who got drafted early, so Melbourne will get very lucky to have young Jack who I’m sure will very quickly become a Mark Neeld favourite. Tackling is excellent. Is a real leader out on the field and is someone who really leads by his actions and hardness at the footy. Potential culture changer and sure to be a member of the leadership group soon enough. Really high character guy and hard worker who will put time into his game until he becomes elite. Jack has very clean hands and uses it well by hand consistently. Big time accumulator. Left foot kick, can use his right. Kicking is generally very good and can find his targets over short and medium range but doesn’t have that same hurt factor as some of the other elite mids in this draft. Speed is good and can break away from packs, also athletically I like his agility and side step, has some evasiveness and can burst off in another direction at pace. The big strength athletically is his endurance which without seeing any of his testing I suspect would be very, very good because he has such a high work rate.

Talks about his speed quite a bit. Only weaknesses seem to be height and penetration kicking. The stuff about leadership, attack on the ball, culture changer. This is what we need. Give me a son of a club legend, with these type of non-statistic based qualities over a 2% better selection as a player.

[daisycutter 29,613]

His speed is fine and his height? If I had lambasted someone for their height you would be the first person to say something akin to Sam Mitchell with his hand at the top of his head saying "You have to this tall to play the game effing well."

Of course the first comparison re height is going to be Mitchell.....so what

I'm trying to take off the rose coloured glasses, be totally objective and try to position him taking into account any risk factors

His height, esp when moving up to senior level is a risk factor

His strength and hard at it attitude will not be such a standout feature at the top level

His speed is not in the outstanding category. OK it may be satisfactory but I still think it a factor when trying to rank him

I still think he is closer to a 10 rather than a 5 based on these risk factors

Of course I hope he ends up the top gun over time for obvious reasons

Ranking an under 18 year player is fraught with guesswork and crystal balling and is only a rough guide on how the player turns out eventually

They are after all still just kids

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

To my evaluation we have pick 3+4+12+Viney all sewn up, which is a very tidy draft day indeed. Better than any of our previous 'windfalls' even Sculgove. I don't get the problem?

GWS/GC are the only things in our way, ask yourself - what is their incentive? If you think they are going to let some desire to 'screw us over' you are thinking way too self-centredly! They will do what is in their best interests like every other club!

We will bluff and say we are not going to take him with 3. Everyone will know it is a bluff, but they cannot call it. If they do, they are forced to 'take unders' for their pick 1/2 with a pick 5-10. Why would they do that? Even if they truly rated Viney as a pick 1/2, or they do indeed just want to screw us, they would know they are taking a kid that will almost definitely do a scully-like ship-jump 2 years later. It makes absolutely no sense. Besides, by 'screwing' us, all they do is put themselves 5-10th in the draft order (Viney's worth), and everyone ahead of them rolls ahead one spot! So even if that happens, we will use pick 3 on the player that is actually worth pick 2, since somebody 'wasted' their pick on Viney. all the other clubs with 5-10 picks will say thanks very much for upgrading us a pick.

If our bluff was called it would be a truly idiotic move by the club that does it, and it won't happen.

Make no mistake, if I was Todd Viney i'd be putting the issue completely to bed by having a quiet word with the lad, suggesting he take his foot off the gas for the rest of the year so that the idea a pick 1 or 2 will be used on him is out of the question. Tanking? You bet.

[Redleg 40,895]

Or we could do an Eddie and quietly mention to GWS and GC that if they plan to nominate JV just to stuff us up, we will make it our life's ambition to wreck their clubs.

[Striker475 696]

GC is the big threat here.

GWS will want us to have pick 3 as a live pick so they can get pick 4 for the mini-draft pick, plus I doubt Sheedy will want to let Grundy slip - his big speech on big men and all that. That's their ace in the hole. GC, on the other hand, are screaming out for a player like Viney right now. I doubt he's worth the Whitfield bluff though.

Interesting case would be if (god forbid) we lose to GWS and then the Giants beat both the Suns and us...