Quarter by quarter analysis - is fitness our problem?

[Hampton 22 519]

Trying to better understand our on-field performance this year, I've crunched the numbers. Does our scoring drop off as the game goes on? Do our opponents beat us more convincingly in the latter parts of games? If the answer is yes, the stats are pointing to us running out of legs.

Nine lamentable rounds: 36 quarters. Average scores this year for quarters 1-4 are 16, 17, 15 and 14 points, respectively. So not much revealed there, apart from an inability to score. Perhaps a slight drop off after half time.

More instructive though is the fact that as we get slightly worse during a game, the opposition lifts. They've booted on average 25, 32, 33 and 29 points against us. Most telling is the extent to which we are being thumped. We've been outscored by an average of 60% in 1st quarters, 90% in 2nd quarters, 130% in 3rd quarters, and have contained our opponents to 100% above our final stanza scores.

The verdict? I say that the figures show either we aren't as fit as opposition teams or we are simply more weary. If games lasted just one quarter, we'd have 3 wins by now. Conversely, we have not won a single quarter for the year following the long break.

We've played 36 quarters; we've won but 5.

Verdict: We need to get fitter. Alternatively, if training is too harsh at the moment, reducing the pressure may see us running out games better during the rest of the year.

The message

[jumbo returns 6,741]

I think the reports have been coming through that training has been very tough, but the program looks to lessen the load after the break.

Elite fitness? Methinks they have a ways to go...

[wattsup 470]

we have had a tough pre season everything is new and we wont start seeing the benefits of it till next year im afraid

[DeeTective 4]

We're not fit enough. We're starting from a long way behind to 8-ball, and its going to take longer than 1 pre-season to turn that around, that is why misson is working the players hard mid-week to build a fitness base for 2013+.

Another aspect that i haven't seen mentioned is the mental fatigue of the players affecting the physical side. They are learning a whole new style of play which clearly isn't instinctive yet. Players are therefore having to 'think' a lot more in games which could be contributing to their fatigue. Its the same as when you learn to drive, at first it is exhausting, but when it becomes 2nd nature its a breeze.

[64was2longago 6]

Agree totally with the lack of fitness. You can just see the fade outs coming week after week as the opposition runs us off our legs. I have been on this all year about what Misson is really doing at the club.

Cannot cop that we have trained TOO hard. Isn't the role of the Elite Performance Manager to be questioned after this week after week drop off late in games?

[H_T 3,047]

You'll find opposition mids of the top clubs work harder both ways, when you say our team through stats appear more weary or aren't as fit, this could well be the case. Games open up and we're lagging behind because our intensity and pressure drops off.

It would be great to get GPS data of the clubs and compare. Our efforts at times on Sunday was good, but put simply if you look at the scores from stoppages we got beaten badly. Clearances stat reperesented an avalanche. As the game progressed Carlton's KPI figures gradually climbed over ours incl. contested possession.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,219]

Haven't read the thread but yes fitness is a huge part of where we are at at the moment. It was evident last year and is being addressed by Misson, Craig & Neeld. The players are still apparently going through a heavy training load in order to get us up to scratch for R1 2013. So you then get results like we have seen this year with the players faltering at the end of the first half and in last quarters. This doesn't just affect the players ability to get to contests, it affects their decision-making, ability to implement a new game plan, skills and attack on the ball. I expect this to improve in the second half of the season (when I assume the training loads will taper off a bit) and in 2013 following another pre-season. There will be more pain this year but if the results start coming through next year (which I expect will happen) then we will truly be able to see what the ability of the players is and how Neeld's game plan will stand up.

[Guest Jackie]

I don't buy these lack of fitness theories. The game was there for the taking against Carlton at 3 quarter time for the team that really wanted to win. We gave absolutely nothing and got hammered. These guys are pros, prime athletes and are physically prepared. Their minds are still no where near right. We were playing a team in the doldrums with their own weak recent form but when crunch time came only they were prepared to slug it out and we let them walk all over us.

Edited May 29, 2012 by Jackie

[Dr. Gonzo 24,219]

You don't accept that fitness levels can affect a professional sports teams performance? Righteo.

Edited May 29, 2012 by Dr. Gonzo

[Guest Jackie]

You don't accept that fitness levels can affect a professional sports teams performance? Righteo.

Yes to a degree. But how come we were winning Our fair share with Dean Bailey and his reputed leisurely fitness regime? We are 0/9 BTW and not had a rats chance of winning anyone of them. I suggest you look more deeply to where our real problems lie.

[jimcor 212]

Yes to a degree. But how come we were winning Our fair share with Dean Bailey and his reputed leisurely fitness regime? We are 0/9 BTW and not had a rats chance of winning anyone of them. I suggest you look more deeply to where our real problems lie.

Agree with the good Dr G. Of course, fitness impacts on performance and lack of stamina is very different from lack of effort! On top of the fitness issue, there is the skills issue and the need to learn (and practise) a new way of playing. This isn't a refinement, it's a complete change. The Bailey plan was a bit like reverse Russian Roulette where, by the law of averages, every now and then all the stars were in alignment and a win was had. I don't think that that was a good basis for a finals campaign.

We are a work in progress and it's still too soon to judge but there are some positive indications that it might work. If not, we've waited nearly 60 years so one thing we can't be accused of lacking is patience.

[binman 42,972]

Yes to a degree. But how come we were winning Our fair share with Dean Bailey and his reputed leisurely fitness regime? We are 0/9 BTW and not had a rats chance of winning anyone of them. I suggest you look more deeply to where our real problems lie.

Bollocks. We didn't win our "fair share" with Bailey. 8.5 was the high water mark was it not. The players knew his game plan and were committed to it - and why not it suited front runners and lazy players (it relied on speed of ball movement not players having to run hard to cover space). It was an attacking free wheeling style that was bound to come off at some point, partic against sides who were not on their game or who tried to play attacking footy aginst us. But we simply could not get any where near a side who played hard contested footy, flooded or ran both ways, still can't because we simply are not fit enough. Full stop.

You can't seriously suggest we could have beaten Carlton purely on mental strength. Apparently our GPS data is showing we are running much further in games this year and this obviously takes it toll. We continued to put in but just ran out of legs. Blind Freddy could have seen it

[Carrot Top 947]

Not fit enough, playing a style that is tougher than they are used to, and cooked from the hard training. That doesn't worry me as long as the attempt at going in when needed is there.

Anyone here with a good memory know how the Sts went under Lyon early on when he grunted up their game style?

[Guest Jackie]

Bollocks. We didn't win our "fair share" with Bailey. 8.5 was the high water mark was it not. The players knew his game plan and were committed to it - and why not it suited front runners and lazy players (it relied on speed of ball movement not players having to run hard to cover space). It was an attacking free wheeling style that was bound to come off at some point, partic against sides who were not on their game or who tried to play attacking footy aginst us. But we simply could not get any where near a side who played hard contested footy, flooded or ran both ways, still can't because we simply are not fit enough. Full stop.

You can't seriously suggest we could have beaten Carlton purely on mental strength. Apparently our GPS data is showing we are running much further in games this year and this obviously takes it toll. We continued to put in but just ran out of legs. Blind Freddy could have seen it

Our players jog around at 80% whether chasing, running into space, spreading or manning up. Nothing to do with fitness. They just don't want to go a 100% and get walked over when other teams crank up their intensity. They are not busting their guts for a club they don't trust and believe in anymore. And don't take the GPS data at face value. Anyone can run a marathon at half pace.

Edited May 29, 2012 by Jackie

[Nasher 33,616]

I don't buy these lack of fitness theories. The game was there for the taking against Carlton at 3 quarter time for the team that really wanted to win.

You're right. It wasn't that we weren't fit enough, it's just that we didn't want to win. Yeah. I could really tell by the boys body language as they walked off the field that they were pretty relieved that they didn't win.

[Ouch! 2,263]

We are 0/9 BTW and not had a rats chance of winning anyone of them. I suggest you look more deeply to where our real problems lie.

You are contradicting yourself here when just above you write "The game was there for the taking against Carlton at 3 quarter time."

Which is it? Can't have no chance, and then have a game there for the taking at the same time??

From my take against Carlton we were struggling to stay with them through the 3rd quarter and the boys put in a very big effort to stay with Carlton, who it's fair to say didn't make the most of the opportunities they had.

[Arrow 1,257]

You're right. It wasn't that we weren't fit enough, it's just that we didn't want to win. Yeah. I could really tell by the boys body language as they walked off the field that they were pretty relieved that they didn't win.

Stupid reply. There's a clear distinction between wanting to win and having the killer instinct to pull it off. Jackie isn't saying they didn't care about winning she's saying they didn't have the determination and heart to win. This can be a regular scenario when a team is down on confidence, and has been twice shown by North Melbourne this year who clearly wanted to win the game but didn't have the heart to hold off Port.

[71 Molloy 266]

Our players jog around at 80% whether chasing, running into space, spreading or manning up. Nothing to do with fitness. They just don't want to go a 100% and get walked over when other teams crank up their intensity. They are not busting their guts for a club they don't trust and believe in anymore. And don't take the GPS data at face value. Anyone can run a marathon at half pace.

Think you might want to read up on what the GPS data actually collects. Acceleration and impact are one of the measurements. If a player ran around at half pace for the entire game the GPS would reflect that fact.

[Face Your Demons 175]

I agree with jackie, Maybe over trained and nothing left on game day. wait and see what happens when they lighten the load in the second half.

[Junior 46]

There was a stat posted here a few weeks ago which showed MFC players running 30% FURTHER per match this season compared to last per GPS data. Anyone know where that came from and if it's accurate?

If so, it really does give us hope for next year. Would be interested to know if that stat is true of the past few weeks.

[DemonWA 3,934]

I remember the eagles were criticised about fitness a few years back too. They were the kings of the 2nd half fade out. I think learning a press can be tiring as you find people do more running than they really need to. Pressing (or Zoning) requries alot of running, yes, but even more so if your're not smart about it or dont quite understand it. As the guys understand their positions and the press they'll be able to be more efficient in their defensive running.

[Viney12 196]

The gameplan Bailey implemented would not take us to ultimate glory

The training was clearly light under Bailey, therefore the players were "fresher" for games

However the fitness levels also would not take us to ultimate glory

The style under Bailey was very much an outside game

Neeld's game is a much harder more contested style - this is more physically taxing than simply running

The players need bodies that can withstand physical battering - right now they do not have that

Hence the reason (as Misson himself said) they are still being flogged on the training track during the week. He also said that come next year, the real hard stuff / running at training should be done and dusted by the time the season proper starts

They are clearly not running out games at the moment

Despite people think that they're elite sportsmen and should be able to stand up to this, this is simply not the case

It is clear the players are physically tired during the game, this will change in coming years

[binman 42,972]

Neeld's game is a much harder more contested style - this is more physically taxing than simply running

The players need bodies that can withstand physical battering - right now they do not have that

Despite people think that they're elite sportsmen and should be able to stand up to this, this is simply not the case

It is clear the players are physically tired during the game, this will change in coming years

Yes this is true. Interesting article a couple of weeks ago about the approach by the Bombers new fitness dude (the machine, the animal, the warrior - or some such nonsense) who said this idea underpinned his approach and consequently they have really focused on building body mass and strength to ensure player can better with stand (and not fatigue as much) the battering that modern footy demands. Also interesting that Bomber Thompson pushed for this guy (and his approach) as this strength has been as important to Geelongs sustained success as their corridor focused, attacking game plan and highly skilled players capable of pulling it off.

In terms of the last couple of lines i also agree. I think the point is that Melbourne at present are not elite athletes and probably won't be until at least start of next season and yes it is dead obvious they are absolutely exhausted, hence that sense in the second half of quarters and games you always have the feeling they are about to be run over.

[Ouch! 2,263]

Yes this is true. Interesting article a couple of weeks ago about the approach by the Bombers new fitness dude (the machine, the animal, the warrior - or some such nonsense)

I think he is the "Weapon" and apparently answers his phone with that as well

[Nasher 33,616]

Stupid reply. There's a clear distinction between wanting to win and having the killer instinct to pull it off. Jackie isn't saying they didn't care about winning she's saying they didn't have the determination and heart to win. This can be a regular scenario when a team is down on confidence, and has been twice shown by North Melbourne this year who clearly wanted to win the game but didn't have the heart to hold off Port.

The talk from Neeld and Misson as early as January was that our fitness levels were diabolical, we're apparently being smashed during the week at training still, we're playing a style that requires more hard running forever, then a match day symptom pops up that could obviously be attributed to poor fitness? Nah, bugger that, their fitness is fine; it's just because they lack the ever elusive "killer instinct". Sure thing.