THE R WORD (AND HOW ECONOMIC THEORY CAN SAVE THE MELBOURNE FOOTBALL CLUB)

[Demonland 73,161]

THE R WORD (AND HOW ECONOMIC THEORY CAN SAVE THE MELBOURNE FOOTBALL CLUB) by The Oracle

Yes, it's official. The Melbourne Football Club is in recession. For two consecutive games the Demons, who last made the finals in 2006, have started their games in this new season brightly, holding hopes of a win at half time before hitting the self-destruct button and falling in a heap in the latter stages.

All classic symptoms of a recession.

The last time the Demons were in a deep recession was in the mid-1980's when the Federal Treasurer was one Paul Keating, considered by the mavens in Wall Street as the "world's best treasurer". It turned out that Keating, allegedly a Collingwood supporter (which hardly qualified him for the role of treasurer or prime minister for that matter), was a complete fiscal failure when he tried to get the country out of the recession "we had to have". He did however, come up with a formula that was applied with success in only one known instance. John Northey, the Demons' coach at the time, applied the J curve to lift the Melbourne Football Club out of the abyss in 1987 and it seems that current coach Dean Bailey has the team on the same course.

The J curve theory suggests that before things can get better, they have to get worse in much the same shape as the letter "J". So hold on to your seats Demon fans, we're heading downwards on the Big Dipper but when we reach the bottom there's only one way to go and that's up!

Melbourne started yesterday's game like a team on a mission. The club has an injury list as long as your arm including Russell Robertson, Paul Wheatley, Matthew Whelan, Mark Jamar, Daniel Bell, Colin Garland, Simon Buckley, Austin Wonaeamirri, Jack Grimes and James Strauss but this didn't prevent them from flying out of the blocks with great purpose.

There was system, fluidity of movement and, for the most part some intensity and excellent technique. Cameron Bruce, Brad Green, Aaron Davey, Brent Moloney and Nathan Jones gave the team early drive, Brad Miller was in excellent marking form up forward and the defence continued where it left off last week against North Melbourne. Newcomer Jake Spencer was holding his own in the ruck. Collingwood was sluggish, inept and extremely fortunate that the inexperienced Demons committed a few unforced errors that allowed them to stay in the game in the early going because otherwise the Pies might have even been scoreless at the first break.

They turned things around in the second term when Josh Fraser lifted in the ruck and then took over the game (in much the same way McIntosh did last week) but there was still plenty of fight in the Demons. Unfortunately, they were also turning it over more than in the first quarter and you simply can't afford to do that when the likes of Didak and Davis are lurking around the football. Kyle Cheney learned that lesson when his kick off skewed off target and was snaffled up by Didak for a goal. Late in the quarter Nathan Jones bore down on the ball, ran to the 50 metre line and sprayed a kick out of bounds on the full. There was no pressure on the kicker and, like last week, examples such as these were the difference between going into the rooms with a half time lead and the alternative of heading off the ground with heads bowed and the team's collective confidence on the wane.

And like last week, things went into rapid decline after the main break. The nasty dip in that J curve when things get worse and then they go real bad in the last quarter. Things weren't helped by the fact that two of Melbourne's steadiest players on the day, Brad Miller (by friendly fire) and Jared Rivers (by a crude late hit) both took heavy knocks that dulled their effectiveness. These things tend to hurt teams that are already injury ravaged.

And at around about this time, the world's best economists, coaches and psychiatrists can't help young tired bodies out of the mire. Melbourne was now being killed in the clearances and suddenly the forward line was as completely dysfunctional as it was predictable. Just bang it forward where a slightly built Ricky Petterd was going to be monstered by two opponents and nobody was there at his feet to pick up the crumbs.

Well, at that point the players all need to go back to work, practice and train harder and allow time to give them more games in their legs and meat on their bodies. And the coach needs to get the grey cells working and come up with some more plans and strategies to get the scoreboard ticking over with more regularity.

History tells us that it's possible to get out of recessions and I return to the mid to late '80s when our esteemed federal treasurer was floating his J curve theory to a disbelieving public. Only the idiots on Wall Street believed him then and look where they are now!

But in the early part of the 1987 football season Melbourne had a promising young team that was floundering and struggling to win matches. The youngsters were encouraged by their coach to keep at it and at it. Soon they were playing better. Making less mistakes …. and one day they eventually clicked and began to play as a real team for four quarters every week. That day came sooner than anybody imagined; by the end of the year they were playing finals, and a year later it was a grand final!

Now, I'm not suggesting things are going to change overnight at Demonland but if the team keeps plugging away and keeps playing as it did in the opening term of yesterday's match against Collingwood, then better things will come. At that point in time, we will put the R word behind us and concentrate on moving our way merrily on the upside of the J.

Melbourne 5.2.32 7.2.44 9.4.58 10.4.64

Collingwood 3.1.19 8.3.51 14.7.91 17.15.117

Goals

Melbourne Green 3 Bate Bruce Johnson McLean Miller Morton Petterd

Collingwood Anthony 4 Didak 3 Cloke Lockyer 2 Beams Brown Davis Fraser Medhurst Swan

Best

Melbourne Davey Warnock Bruce Green Miller Jones Morton

Collingwood Fraser Didak Swan Maxwell Anthony Lockyer Davis Beams

Injuries

Collingwood Dale Thomas withdrew from the selected side with gastro. He was replaced by Dayne Beams.

Melbourne To be advised at team selection next Thursday night

Reports Heath Shaw (Collingwood) for rough conduct (TBC) against Jared Rivers in the third term.

Umpires Donlon, McLaren, Ryan

Official crowd 43,176 at the MCG

[The Great Pretender 476]

Damn good read Oracle.

I'm ringing my stockbroker tomorrow morning to buy some shares. What would you suggest?

[jabberwocky 2,301]

"Difficult to see, always in motion is the future."

"No, no different, only different in your mind. You must unlearn what you have learned. No try, do or do not. There is no try."

(Master Yoda)

[Little Goffy 14,645]

I'm just going to put in a little plug for Mark Jamar here.

He's actually one of our top tacklers, and the number one tackler amongst ruckmen in the AFL, and usually works hard to negate the opposition ruckman. Given that the last two games have been significantly swung by opposition ruckmen, I think it's a good moment to give him a nod of respect on that and to look forward to having him back soon.

It's also a funny feeling to have as many injuries as we did most of last year, but to know that almost all of them only have one or two weeks left on the mend.

And to be easily on the way to breaking our membership records even when we haven't yet turned our fortunes around on the field.

[Gouga 570]

Good read Oracle and agree DD, we miss Jamar's physical presence in the clearances.

Still not sure why Bruce is being included in everybody's best players. Is it because he got so many touches or because he actually had an positive influence on the game and the way we played? I suggest it is the former.

[Rolling Stone 158]

I'm just going to put in a little plug for Mark Jamar here.

He's actually one of our top tacklers, and the number one tackler amongst ruckmen in the AFL, and usually works hard to negate the opposition ruckman. Given that the last two games have been significantly swung by opposition ruckmen, I think it's a good moment to give him a nod of respect on that and to look forward to having him back soon.

It's also a funny feeling to have as many injuries as we did most of last year, but to know that almost all of them only have one or two weeks left on the mend.

And to be easily on the way to breaking our membership records even when we haven't yet turned our fortunes around on the field.

You can plug the Russian as much as you want. He's on the LTI, he's grown a beard and he's gone into hibernation. He can't play until after Round 7 and by then will need 2 or 3 weeks at least to get match fit in the VFL.

In the meantime, we have a bit of a dilemma if we're going to give Meesen a try - unless we use PJ as a KPP. I don't think Bailey's going to go that way so I would suggest the least experienced ruckman in Spence might have to go back to the VFL for a while. Won't hurt him IMO.

[45HG 1,559]

Would it hurt PJ to go back to Casey?

[dee-luded 2,959]

We were showing signs of deteriorating stocks and falling productivity a few years back when we lost the first 3 (2006) to 9 (2007) games of the seasons, prior to a winning formula. We were in desperate need of clearing non productive stocks, way before the decision was finally taken to divest ourselves of surplus stocks & non productive practitioners.

We started to shed our non profitable assets before a decline in real earnings. We took our medicine changing production managers & other mid managerial staff before a restructuring of workplace practices & staff. Cuts in production costs have been made together with the retraining of new staff prior to a fresh growth period ahead.

[Hulett Packard III 166]

Would it hurt PJ to go back to Casey?

Probably. He might not get back in the ones.

[damon the demon 57]

Dees in 1987:

Comp Rnd W/L Mar Home Pts Away Pts Venue Attend Date Time

HA 1 W 39 Melb 19-14-128 Fitz 12-17-89 MCG 18,012 28-03-1987 14:10

HA 2 L 33 North Melb 13-14-92 Melb 7-17-59 MCG 19,035 03-04-1987 20:00

HA 3 L 34 Geel 18-20-128 Melb 13-16-94 Skilled Stadium 15,397 11-04-1987 14:10

HA 4 W 47 Melb 21-13-139 St K 14-8-92 MCG 25,465 18-04-1987 14:10

HA 5 L 5 Bris 12-14-86 Melb 12-9-81 Carrara 7,451 26-04-1987 14:10

HA 6 W 41 Melb 16-14-110 Rich 9-15-69 MCG 18,482 02-05-1987 14:10

HA 7 W 46 Melb 18-18-126 Coll 12-8-80 MCG 49,215 09-05-1987 14:10

HA 8 L 24 Melb 11-15-81 Wstrn B 15-15-105 MCG 16,325 16-05-1987 14:10

HA 9 L 16 West C 20-15-135 Melb 18-11-119 Subiaco Oval 23,366 24-05-1987 14:10

HA 10 W 22 Ess 11-14-80 Melb 15-12-102 Windy Hill 13,796 30-05-1987 14:10

HA 11 L 45 Melb 13-12-90 Carlt 21-9-135 MCG 49,812 08-06-1987 14:10

HA 12 L 36 Melb 11-10-76 Sydn 17-10-112 MCG 21,696 13-06-1987 14:10

HA 13 W 13 Hawth 6-8-44 Melb 8-9-57 Princes Park 7,631 20-06-1987 14:10

HA 14 L 48 Fitz 11-16-82 Melb 4-10-34 Princes Park 7,544 27-06-1987 14:10

HA 15 L 2 Melb 15-20-110 North Melb 16-16-112 MCG 17,108 04-07-1987 14:10

HA 16 L 46 St K 18-6-114 Melb 9-14-68 Waverley Park 20,354 18-07-1987 14:10

HA 17 W 40 Geel 11-11-77 Melb 18-9-117 Waverley Park 15,253 25-07-1987 14:10

HA 18 W 54 Melb 22-21-153 Bris 14-15-99 MCG 10,307 01-08-1987 14:10

HA 19 W 19 Rich 15-10-100 Melb 17-17-119 MCG 15,899 08-08-1987 14:10

HA 20 W 55 Coll 8-11-59 Melb 15-24-114 Victoria Park 16,540 15-08-1987 14:10

HA 21 W 61 Melb 18-21-129 West C 10-8-68 MCG 21,048 21-08-1987 20:00

HA 22 W 15 Wstrn B 10-8-68 Melb 12-11-83 Whitten Oval 31,249 29-08-1987 14:10

FIN EF W 118 Melb 22-26-158 North Melb 5-10-40 MCG 72,628 06-09-1987 14:10

FIN SF W 76 Melb 21-23-149 Sydn 10-13-73 MCG 80,292 13-09-1987 14:10

FIN PF L 2 Hawth 11-14-80 Melb 10-18-78 Waverley Park 71,298 19-09-1987 14:10

[dreamin' man 0]

Does anyone else but me, Pollyannas as we might be, feel that this season's not going to be v. happy? I know we're better off than last year off field but I'm sensing we're looking like a laughing stock again. & I'm a loyalist!

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,939]

I can forsee a 2-20 season with a percentage slightly better than last year. I'm stuggling to identify clubs we're capabale of beating. Perhaps Freo at home in round 20, or a club ravished with injuries.

We have gaping holes all over the place, and our young team is only going to get more tired as the season gets older.

I'm glad Freo won more than 4 games last year, as I'm thinking they'll be in line for a priority pick this year - but after the first round not before it.

[Guest Rojik of the Arctic]

It was always going to happen with so many kids on the list. But things are showing some promise ie the back line looks set to be one of the leagues best in a couple of years, the kids we have drafted actually look like they can play and with Stynes inc doing some very good things off the field we can take the right amount of time getting things right without having to play (say) a Watts before he is ready. It would hurt like hell if I didn't think we were going anywhere but I think we are. The more experience and fitness the young 'uns get, coupled with some nice drafting at the end of this year and we should be able to start making a good hard climb in 2011 with a good shake in 2013/14. Keep the faith.

[btdemon 482]

I can see a possible three or four but we will improve over the season and sometimes the wins come from nowhere like the Freo one last year. Remember, we don't want more than four!

[montasaurus 0]

pls less then 5 wins! if we win 5 or 6 heads need to roll!

[praha 11,240]

We don't need to wish about winning 5-6 games, because we won't. 2-3 is realistic. I can see us beating Freo, Essendon and maybe Adelaide at the G.

[dee-luded 2,959]

pls less then 5 wins! if we win 5 or 6 heads need to roll!

'monty', 4 wins + a draw (18 pts), would put us over the allowed maximum requirement to aquire a priority pick.

[dreamin' man 0]

Thanks, 'landers for some reassurance. Have had unrealistic hopes for the first two rounds. Will lower my expectations.

[Tony Tea 2,809]

I'm stuggling to identify clubs we're capabale of beating. Perhaps Freo at home in round 20, or a club ravished with injuries.

Freo will sack Harvey after round 19, and then beat us in round 20 courtesy of "new coach syndrome".

[dee-luded 2,959]

Does anyone else but me, Pollyannas as we might be, feel that this season's not going to be v. happy? I know we're better off than last year off field but I'm sensing we're looking like a laughing stock again. & I'm a loyalist!

No not really, It depends how you look at things, that is, what your expectations are that will supply you with a satisfactory outcome. I'll go home happy if I see our young list learning & improving with some excitement thrown in for good mesure.

My expectations are that we play young players, the 2nd & 3rd year guys as much as possible + giving the kids, 1st year recruits a chance when deserved.

Also the underforming mid - senior players should be made to fight hard to keep/regain their place in the team.

I know we have to maintain some experience, but not at the expense of lack of effort.

Next my hope rather than an expectation is that we end up with picks 1 & 2 come the season end.

This should just about round off our restructuring the team list & we should be capable of competing & winning our share next season.

[re draft molan 1]

Does anyone else but me, Pollyannas as we might be, feel that this season's not going to be v. happy? I know we're better off than last year off field but I'm sensing we're looking like a laughing stock again. & I'm a loyalist!

I'm not really sure what you expect from a team of kids. I'm almost at the stage where I don't care if we lose. Just that I can see improvement in them. Make no mistake though, we will cop some floggings after the mid season break when those kids start to get tired and sore, and the stronger and older bodies come to the fore. What we saw in the first 1 and 1/2 quaters on Saturday is the type of footy we can expect to see in the future. And i'm excited.

As far as a 'laughing stock'. It would be much worse if we had a good team and we were being flogged. Anyone who knows anything about footy, realises the stage we are at.

[Supreme_Demon 3,899]

I'm hoping we beat either Richmond or Adelaide or even both in the upcoming games at the MCG.

As much as we need to rebuild and get draft picks...I wanna see a few wins this year too!

[pringle 42]

I can forsee a 2-20 season with a percentage slightly better than last year. I'm stuggling to identify clubs we're capabale of beating. Perhaps Freo at home in round 20, or a club ravished with injuries.

We have gaping holes all over the place, and our young team is only going to get more tired as the season gets older.

I'd like to ravish a gorgeous young Dees supporter (aged between approx 20-30). Not so sure how many clubs are ravished by injuries though . I'm not being a language Nazi, just thought that one was funny.

[rusty_kingswood 0]

Must admit, i was talking up our improvement at the start of the season. Not un realistically, but I would have thought that we could get double the amount of wins this year than last, if not a couple more.

Iam certainly not un happy with our performaces so far (except with the fade aways that just seems to be imbeaded into the Demons psyche)

However, we do have alot of kids, which wont be able to run out the season (and if they are pused, they will surely sercum to injuries), no forward line to speak of and a slow midfield.

I like were the Demons are headed. I like what Baileys doing and I dont mind waiting just a bit longer.

But its gonan be another hard season.

[dee-luded 2,959]

I'm hoping we beat either Richmond or Adelaide or even both in the upcoming games at the MCG.

As much as we need to rebuild and get draft picks...I wanna see a few wins this year too!

Rather beat the mid teams or a top team, instead of sharing the cream at the years end.

But I would like to get the 4 wins.