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there's footballers on a list. then there is rare cases like Jones. He understands he has a rare opportunity to be truly beloved at a level somewhere north of Neitz, and only short of Robbie and Jimmy. When you're going to be well paid regardless, that's a powerful inducement. Its not something open to many footballers, but it is to him.

Long time reader. Just thought i'd let you in on something I have stumbled across. As has been mentioned earlier. Those "highlight" packages are more just any time a player is involved in the game, good or bad. To view the actual highlights for each player, you can do this through the afl site (at this stage petracca does not have his clip up). Jake Lever: http://www.afl.com.au/video/2013-12-12/gun-draft-hopeful-grounded http://www.afl.com.au/video/2014-09-14/draft-prospect-jake-lever Angus Brayshaw: http://www.afl.com.au/video/2014-09-13/angus-brayshaw-highlights Patrick McCartin: http://www.afl.com.au/video/2014-09-14/draft-prospect-patrick-mccartin http://www.afl.com.au/video/2013-08-07/patrick-mccartin-highlights Peter Wright: http://www.afl.com.au/video/2014-09-14/draft-prospect-peter-wright Also, the AIS game they played against Collingwood earlier in the year can be seen at (Brayshaw does some impressive things in this game): For the record. Brayshaw and McCartin (assuming Petracca goes one).

All I want those that know these kids and that want McCartin is to tell me he is a generational talent. Because you need forwards obviously, but you can survive with a couple of targets, thrive if one of them is dominant - but you need a platoon in the middle: a dozen skilled mids with various attributes to compete against the best. Jones, Tyson, Vince, Viney, Cross, Matt Jones, Bail, Trengove, McKenzie, Kent, Salem, JKH, Michie, Toumpas, Riley, and Evans. The above list does not inspire me with confidence. The fact that Matt Jones will be our 6th best mid and that 4 of those listed could be gone in a years time only serve to highlight the issue. The kids picked at ND2 and ND3 won't displace Matt Jones next year, but they will provide a solid base so we can build that platoon over the next few years.

1st 18 wins 147.4%

Commercial television is set to take over the broadcasting of VFL games ~ VFL and WAFL set for Channel Seven in 2015. Let's hope they give Casey a bit more coverage than the ABC did in recent years.

From what I gather Lever is behind McCartin in straight talent. Lever is a backman who might end up in the midfield but at 194 that is becoming less likely. Sounds like there is a clear top 3 this year and then a drop off to Wright who has an element of risk but could end up being the best and then daylight to pick 5. I think we'll go the best available at 2 & 3. So whoever is left after either McCartin or Petracca go at 1. Whoever is left out of those three will be best available at those picks and incidentally will fill a desperately required position.

That's exactly right mate. Prendergast gets a lot of stick here and rightfully so as the likes of Cook, Gysberts, Blease, Strauss and Tapscott were top 20 picks that he butchered when nobody had them going that high. But Scully, JT and Watts went exactly where everyone else had them. A couple said Nic Nat over Watts but most went for JW. Which points to development being even more of a problem than recruiting (which is saying something!) I think we've got glaring holes key forward and in midfield so it's hard to know what requires more urgency in fixing! Jake Lovett who is coming through as a Father/Son next year is meant to be a gem - possible top 5 according to both Cal Twomey and Paige Cadrona - although it seems like the AFL in their infinite wisdom will be changing the system next year so we won't get him for a steal like we did with Viney and to a lesser extent Stretch. There are also a big number of midfielders out of contract next year we can throw big coin at (Cameron is too though). I also wonder about the go-home factor with Hogan long-term so would be great to have a Vic key position forward who'd (hopefully) be unlikely to leave for a while at least in McCartin.

Howe is only 78 games into his career, 24 years old. Reads the ball in the air at an elite level, runs, intercepts, and has a crack. He is the least of our worries, is progressing well and can now play almost any position on the ground. As melbourne improve, he will become elite in my opinion

No, but they weren't overly pleased. I think the big difference between Cronulla and Essendon is the duration and volume of injections. Cronulla's regime only lasted a few weeks. Essendon's was far longer and more systematic. I very much doubt any of the players will get less than 6 months of actual game time ban. Maybe a backdated 1 year ban that sees them miss the preseason and half of the 2015 season. Anything less and I reckon WADA would override. Just my opinion.

I'm not sure how you can say he has been terribly developed. In my opinion his development has been progressive, came in as a excitement machine that to often floated in and out of games, to now a consistent footballer who has developed a very good understanding of the game defensively. I honestly think the "lack of development" line that is trotted out when referencing MFC players is a little over used. Admittedly there have been some, and others have been bad selections with not much upside in their development. I think he is good player, at times a very good player, a natural footballer, who has both the athleticism and Football instincts that make good players.

As a general rule, does anyone else get concerned when only a handful of players are being talked about? My point is, there seems to be such groupthink amongst supporters and clubs alike about who the top prospects are (usually based on U18 form), however over the past five years there have been very few stars to emerge from the pointy end of the draft.

This website sets out the number of games played by each of the draft picks over the past three decades of drafting ~ https://www.draftguru.com.au/picks Despite the fact that national draft pick 1 failures often come under the microscope, players picked first have averaged the most number of games - 140. The sequence goes like this:- 1 - 140 2 - 128 3 - 122 4 - 90 5 - 99 6 - 48 7 - 94 8 - 93 9 - 87 10 - 83 11 - 83 12 - 76 13 - 94 14 - 77 15 - 66 16 - 85 17 - 64 18 - 69 19 - 82 20 - 69 From there: * the range 21 - 25 is between 39 and 66 games (the average for pick 23 which we gave away for Sam Frost was 45 games); * the range 26 - 30 is between 42 and 74 games; * the range 31 - 35 is between 26 and 58 games; * the range 36 - 40 is between 45 and 78 (the average for pick 40 which was one of the picks we received for Sam Frost was 78 games); * the range 41 - 45 is between 39 and 57 games; * the range 46 - 50 is between 40 and 57 games; * the range 51 - 55 is between 11 and 56 games (the average for pick 40 which was the other pick we received for Sam Frost was 46 games); The numbers drop away after that with a few statistical aberrations for those more famous late picks in history such as James Hird (79). The best average of the rookie draft picks is at the 50 mark with quite a few averaging in the 40's but the pick 1 average is 25. Pre-Season Draft pick 1 averages 49 games and the best average is 18 with 83 (another statistical aberration?). You'll get plenty of 40s in the early part of the PSD. What does this mean apart from the old story about damn lies and statistics? If things fall our way, we have a reasonable chance of picking as good a player with 40 than we might have with 23 so if the club rates Frost highly then it was a fair decision to do the trade.

I cannot understand how so many Demonlanders do not even look at Peter Wright as an option, particularly as he appears to be Boyd Mark II. Looking at his highlight reels of him taking leading and pack marks [albeit against smaller bodies than AFL] there is no reason that a combination of him and Hogan would not be as formidable as Hogan and McCartin. His kicking is dead-eye, from an angle or from beyond 50 metres out. Of course, whatever the speculation and arguments on this Forum, it will be Roos and Co who will make the call on the day and bear responsibilty for putting together a team capable of making us a serious Finals contender yet again.

Thanks for the update Redleg. In my opinion footy is about talent, timing and luck. As we've learnt from Trengove and Clark, not having luck (i.e. succumbing to career-threatening injuries) can be devastating. Lever sounds like a fantastic bloke; underage captain, helping out with coaching while recovering, and dealing with injuries at an early age. Reminds me of a young No 1 draft pick we lost to GWS. When we consider some of the issues we've so far faced trying to get another No 1 pick on the field (i.e. Hogan's back and knee), I'd be very reluctant to go near a young player that has already missed a year to injury.

I highly doubt that will include the oh-so probing questions of Matt Burgan for the website...

Its all good Ox As nothing the MFC has done over the past eight years would come anywhere close to performance enhancing.

That worked well during the trade period!

I haven't looked at any of highlight packages. Mostly because that is what they are, highlights. I have watched a lot of u/18s for about 15 odd years when a friend became an assistant coach at one club and another the coach of another. My nephews also played a few years each and a close family friend played for vic metro. I do not think I'm am expert on who will go where but I have a good idea on the players. The ones mentioned in this thread I think I can comment on. I have seen them all play more than a handful of times Lever in my opinion would have been the first pick if he didn't do his knee. He didn't play in the midfield as a 17 year old but a lot of 17 year olds don't really get that chance because the coaching can be based around 18 year olds trying to get drafted. He may well have played there on occasion this year if he had played if not more permanently. Not really different to petracca who also didn't play mid last year. Lever has however done a lot of training with the mids in his rehab. I think I would pick him at 3 but a serious knee injury has me second guessing. McCartin is very competitive and likes to bash and crash. He is strong and I'm not in the corner where people say he is so much bigger than the backs. Stronger yes, size maybe a bit, but guys like Boyd, daniher, Patton, even wright are/were much bigger than their opponents, mostly because of height. He had a lot of niggly injuries this year which prevented him from showing his best. A recruiting friend of mine told me just after the national carnival that the doggies rate him as a 10 year player and would pick him at 1. He has great hands and is quite quick off the mark so he can create distance and hold marks. He is strong like frawley was strong at the same age. I think he will play some games next year, like hogan would have played this year minus injury and Boyd playing some games for gws. It's not like we have some gun forwards keeping him out and Dawes will miss a few (just basing this on what might happen) and hogan won't play 22 games (I don't believe anyway). Brayshaw is a certainty. He is the best pure midfielder available. (Heeney goes ok). He works hard from start to finish and doesn't give up. He grinds his opponents if they try to go with him. He played on petracca late in the season and in my opinion got the better of him. Great tackler as he goes with his whole body instead of just his arms. He also is a goal kicking mid and we need those desparately. I don't believe stkilda will pick him at 1 but he could go 1. Petracca played midfield this year after playing as a forward last year. Watching him play he seems to go to the right places but I've been told he has worked very hard at this. Has good vision and always seems to get his hands free when tackled. Another mid who knows were the goals are. I think he will go at 1 but I'm hoping we get the petracca, Brayshaw double as we need mids. Laverde I have seen probably the most. He has tricks upon tricks and pace to burn. My issue with him at 3 for us is that I haven't seen him play as a pure mid. Wing, halfback,halfforward are the places I've seen him most. The kid can do anything though. This year watching him play he really reminded me of Sicily who was drafted by the hawks last year from the same club. Wright is big and can kick it a long way. I'm not sold on him for us. He doesn't go as hard at it as McCartin. He is an ok mark but that might not be the case at afl level against guys as big as you (Not saying it still wont be the case). He does have the ability to influence the game from the forward line and if its not working for him he can go in the ruck and influence the game around the ground. I'm not anti picking him if we do. My preference is petracca, Brayshaw the same as everyone I guess but I don't believe it will work out that way. Having watched recruiting from up close I believe we will get the best result we can on the information that is known now. I've had dealings with our recruiters in the past and I believe we have the right people as compared to the past.

Can't get a kick in a stampede. Lovely kick of the ball when he gets it but that's not very often and as 'Chaser' says struggles in the big games. Roos won't take him, not because of the talls argument but because he doesn't have the aggression. According to Kinnear Beatson the first question Roos asks about a kid is if he is competitive and hard at the contest.

I don't expect we'll get any Friday night games but surely they can finally give us a home game at the G vs Essendon. It's not even their goddamn home!

Wouldn't be surprised at all if its Lever. Goods played as a rebounding defender as a kid, is 194 and could play in almost any position as required by the team. Maybe Roos and co either see a similarity in either the person or role flexibility that he could offer.

I agree with you Col, The worst teams are either 2013 or 2012. Before that 1974 was a shocker but the games were closer. No need to name individuals. Clint, tell the guy who wants to know the worst individuals in a team ever to GAGF. and concentrate on cutting the fricken grass.

There is a Club with a pick before us and they could take anyone. I'm thinking best we wait till draft day before claiming anyone.

2007 was Cameron's last draft, BP called out Watts, Blease, etc. 05 & 06 weren't too bad. 07 wasn't great, but that draft pool overall wasn't very strong. We just weren't bold enough to take a flyer on Dangerfield with our first pick. He was generally thought to be around the mark at the Grimes selection, Rendell saw the player he would become and convinced the Crows recruiting team to select him. I think they were the only team apart from Hawthorn that considered Rioli a top 10 selection too.

Interesting quick look at drafting jnrmac What do the majority of those pics have in common? They're all skinny running types when footy went in the opposite direction (contested strong bodies). The mfc wanted fast free flowing footy and drafted that way. It was a complete failure as it's not where footy went

BP gets hammered on this site but Craig Cameron was recruiter from 1997 to the end of 2008. His record is not much better. 2008 Blease, Watts, Strauss, jetta 2007Morton Grimes, Maric CHeney Tommy MaNamara 2006 Frawley Petterd Garland Weetra 2005 Jones Buckley Bartram Neville

One game, not games. They're not highlights. Did you watch the one where as a 16 year old he kicked 5 against WA at last year's u-18 championships? Either way I find it ridiculous and naive to judge purely off a 3 minute video clip. Cal Twomey who is the foremost judge along with Emma Quayle of all things draft has McCartin at 2 in his recent rankings. Lever at 12. Paige Cardrona who is also excellent also has McCartin at 2, with Lever at 6. Not saying these experts are spot on every time but they know a hell of a lot more than us from going to a lot of games and seeing them in the flesh and talking to recruiters and clubs.

Cross might still be in best 22,but only by a mile.

JH,spent most of the year learning how to switch. Also learnt how to run both ways. Coaching staff waiting to see if hard work has paid off. Revisit this players value after another 35-40 games.

Duff Man is thrusting in the direction of the problem (thread title)

McCartin for mine. Think people are getting far too sucked in by a couple of youtube videos that aren't even "highlights", rather they are just players involvements in one particular game. That and the fact that tall midfielders are en vogue with everyone wanting their own Pendlebury, Fyfe or Bontempelli. Lever however has rarely, if ever, played in the midfield before, and just because he has designs about moving there eventually does not automatically mean he will become as good as those players, in fact it would be ridiculous to assume this. Those in the know have had McCartin going as number 1 for the past 12 months, especially since he kicked 5 goals as a bottom-age player against WA last year, until Petracca overtook him in the past couple of months. Most have Lever going between 8-12. Happy to bow to their superior knowledge and a key forward fills a real hole on our list with Dawes being far better suited to that tall forward role. With Brayshaw as the other pick that would mean we get the best of both worlds.

Hawkins will never leave Geelong. Old man played for them, grew up a Geelong-mad kid. Country boy who loves living in Geelong and the Barwon Heads golf courses. No chance of him ever leaving.

Fair to say I was probably wrong about Brayshaw's kicking, still not great but not nearly as bad as the other video made out to be.

Go rams. That was a great game to watch. St. Louis pulled some plays out of nowhere to get that win. The punt return TD fooled the camera man as well and then the fake punt was awesome. I was surprised they didn't try the Flying V from the mighty ducks movies.

I agree with you chook almost 100% Jones has another 6 to 7 years left and IMO Jones has the opportunity to at least join both Jimmy & Robbie in the eyes of Demon fans by the time he retires. I base this on 2 things In the modern era the one club player is rare especially at clubs which have been as low as ours has over Jones period, similar to Robbies As a long suffering Dee whilst IMO it is highly unlikley taking us to the Holy Grail would make Jones very special. Must say Jonesy is one of the few things keeping my 7 year old on board, he absolutely loves Jones and only knows about Smith, Barassi, Flower, Stynes & Neiter through my stories and memorabilia

I wouldn't take a ruck in the first 50 picks. The point I am making with regard to talls vs smalls is, unless, they are a latent talent ahead of the mids in the draft class, they should be overlooked until all those similar talented mids are off the table. I just would not invest the same amount in a tall that is as talented as a mid. The return is quicker, the development is more assured, and you know more of what you are getting because their body doesn't give them an advantage the way that taller kids get an advantage in junior footy. Essentially, if you can throw a blanket over them - take the mid.

The talk about Pickett strikes me as the club doing due diligence on any/all the players who should be around the mark. Around the time of the champs I believe we were big fans of Pickett. With a more consistent finish to the season, he probably would have been well in contention, but I think after weighing up the pros and cons, Pickett will likely fall below some of the other mids. Fair to say that after the first four, it’s incredibly even this year. Even more so once you factor needs into the equation. If the club bypassed the next big thing, at least we’d have some established, considered reasons as to why we bypassed a certain player (outside of ‘nobody else ranked him that high, either’). With regard to Wright, my opinion is formed after multiple viewings. What he is capable of on the field is awesome. He just hasn’t been able to do those things when it’s counted, often enough. I have questions over his aggression and competitiveness, which doesn’t mean he won’t show these things a the next level, but you are speculating whether you can coach it into him. He will take time to develop into a consistently effective AFL player, and the consistent message is the club doesn’t have time to wait. Wright’s potentially a 4-6 year project, and given the way free agency and player movement is going, there’s an additional layer of risk involved in drafting a player who will take time to contribute.

I dont really care about leadership....its all very over rated and such in so far as being THE reason to draft anyone Is fine but my 1st and only criteria is can the bloke play footy. I dont give a fig about how they manage this or that. CAN THEY PLAY FOOTY ?? That hes managed his injury well is good. Rather he wasn't injured...have a few of them.

I'm hoping Petracca & Brayshaw but thinking that is unlikely Not beleiveing any of this talk about Pickett flying into contention I'm warming to Lever after hearing of his dedication to rehab and leadership qualities, but also understand why the club may also look at Mcartin I think we can take it to the bank Brayshaw will be a Dee next season, just a matter of who is the other one Hope - Petracca & Brayshaw Like - Brayshaw & Lever Okay/Understand - Brayshaw & Mccartin Outside chance - Brayshaw & Laverde

You would be the only person on D/land who doesn't think that they are.

Random note: SportsBet have Lumumba at $17.00 to make All-Australian.

Those "highlight" packages are more just any time a player is involved in the game, good or bad.

Rams making the Cowboys recent success against the Hawks look second rate... That fake out for the punt return was faaaantastic.

Where is the interview on the club website? It's not every day the club signs up royalty. Get your act together Burgo.

For mine once the offence is committed and evidence collected for purposes of a SCN then the transgressors should be dealt with by the overseeing body. The participant sport itself should have no more part to play. If this were the case there's little room for crafty shenanigans. This is all done wrong.

I don't know nearly enough about this stuff, but can someone let me know if this is how it looks likely to pan out? St Kilda takes Petracca, we then take Brayshaw and McCartin. St Kilda takes McCartin, we then take Brayshaw and Petracca. St Kilda takes Brayshaw, we then take McCartin and Petracca. Are there any other permutations here? They are the top 3, right?

Goodyear looks like he has a good set of wheels on him....

I expect Colin Sylvia to have a break out year.