2025 Ladder Predictor

[Bring-Back-Powell 15,512]

38 minutes ago, seventyfour said:

Our Round 7 game is against Richmond, so we'd be 5-2 if results went the way of the above. Would be a brilliant start to the year.

I'd take 4-3.

Then West Coast in round 8 which I'm sure the boys will be itching to atone from last year's disaster over there.

4-3 is good on paper, but we have a really tough 3 weeks from rounds 9-11 with Hawthorn, Brisbane (away) then Sydney. May have to win a statement game against Fremantle or Geelong in Geelong (ideally get to 6-2) to bank some early wins before that challenging 3 weeks.

There's also a horror four weeks where we have Port, bye, GC and Adelaide all away.

Edited January 14 by Bring-Back-Powell

[seventyfour 1,248]

24 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

There's also a horror four weeks where we have Port, bye, GC and Adelaide all away.

Still way better than last year though. The early season run in 2024 - something like 5 games in 25 days - was ridiculous. We were never a chance to beat Brisbane at the MCG that night.

[Whispering_Jack 31,359]

8 hours ago, binman said:

We open with a bye. 

Quite. But at the end of Round 6, every club will have played six games and it’s a good time to reflect on how the season’s going.

I’m picking us to win our opening game at home vs GWS Giants. Geelong at the Cattery will be tough and if we beat the Dockers we should be well set towards a top four finish. 

I am however, still going to take things one week at a time.

[roy11 4,058]

Bit of a difference in predictions here (https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/winless-tigers-hawks-on-the-rise-our-experts-predict-season-2025-20250206-p5la7d.html)

Jake Niall - 6th
Michael Gleeson - 8th
Peter Ryan - 11th
Jon Pierik - 13th
Andrew Wu - 6th
Marc McGowan - 9th
Sam McClure - 11th
Caroline Wilson - 4th
Emma Kearney - 12th
Libby Birch  - 13th
Bob Murphy - 11th
Mathew Stokes - 13th
Scott Spits - 7th

[biggestred 5,296]

adam simpson yesterday when freo were kicking with the wind and dominating "yeah i see them sliding"
full time "they reminded me how good they can be"

[Mono 460]

10 hours ago, roy11 said:

Bit of a difference in predictions here (https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/winless-tigers-hawks-on-the-rise-our-experts-predict-season-2025-20250206-p5la7d.html)

Jake Niall - 6th
Michael Gleeson - 8th
Peter Ryan - 11th
Jon Pierik - 13th
Andrew Wu - 6th
Marc McGowan - 9th
Sam McClure - 11th
Caroline Wilson - 4th
Emma Kearney - 12th
Libby Birch  - 13th
Bob Murphy - 11th
Mathew Stokes - 13th
Scott Spits - 7th

Caro - 4th. Interesting.

[Whispering_Jack 31,359]

The Herald Sun “experts” are less than impressed. They have us remaining static in 14th place. 

It’s worth bookmarking this …

[Timothy Reddan-A'Blew 5,679]

OK, so that's The Age and The Herald Sun.

Looking forward now to The Saturday Paper, The New York Times, Pravda and The Asahi Shimbun predictors.

Striving for more certainty.

[jnrmac 20,338]

On 15/01/2025 at 16:36, Whispering_Jack said:

Quite. But at the end of Round 6, every club will have played six games and it’s a good time to reflect on how the season’s going.

I’m picking us to win our opening game at home vs GWS Giants. Geelong at the Cattery will be tough and if we beat the Dockers we should be well set towards a top four finish. 

I am however, still going to take things one week at a time.

Interesting to note that GWS will already have played one game. You'd have to think thats an advantage

[jnrmac 20,338]

The Herald Sun 'experts':

• CHRIS CAVANAGH: Missing finals
• LAUREN WOOD: Missing finals
• JON RALPH: Missing finals
• ELIZA REILLY: Missing finals
• LACHLAN MCKIRDY: Bottom four
• ED BOURKE: Missing finals
• CALLUM DICK: Missing finals
• SIMEON THOMAS-WILSON: Missing finals
• Consensus prediction: 14th

[ManDee 7,391]

2 hours ago, jnrmac said:

The Herald Sun 'experts':

• CHRIS CAVANAGH: Missing finals
• LAUREN WOOD: Missing finals
• JON RALPH: Missing finals
• ELIZA REILLY: Missing finals
• LACHLAN MCKIRDY: Bottom four
• ED BOURKE: Missing finals
• CALLUM DICK: Missing finals
• SIMEON THOMAS-WILSON: Missing finals
• Consensus prediction: 14th

The Herald Sun 'experts' : missing talent and integrity 

[The Third Eye 288]

Fox Experts -

 

[Clintosaurus 7,942]

The Hawthorn hype from the media is ridiculous. Pre-season doco and all. What a [censored]. Hope they finish 9th but all them high tackle frees in forward 50 will get them in.

[spirit of norm smith 16,677]

Tim Watson. SEN. 

1st Cats

2 Swans 

3 Crows !!! 

4 Lions

5 Blues

6 Pies

7 Freo

8 Demons 

missing the 8 … Hawks, Giants, Power, Bombers, Suns & Bulldogs. 

hard to tip a top 8 when 14 teams could easily be nominated to make it and 7-8 teams would seriously have claims for a top 4 finish 

wow … Crows at 3.  That’s Crazy!!! 

[deespicable me 1,584]

On 27/12/2024 at 19:22, Rab D Nesbitt said:

If we have a good run with injuries I'm confident we'll finish top 4 and have another tilt at a flag. I couldn't care less where anyone else finishes although Pies and Blues missing finals would be nice I guess. 

Nice! Nice! That would be like heaven on Earth. Oh please, please, let me live in that Universe.

[Go Ds 301]

On 04/03/2025 at 06:44, Whispering_Jack said:

The Herald Sun “experts” are less than impressed. They have us remaining static in 14th place. 

It’s worth bookmarking this …

These things are so boring:

 

Same GF

3 of 4 PF sides the same 

Hawthorn, Carlton, Freo jump up slightly 

the second last premier back into the 8 ( another team improving slightly)

A good GWS dropping a little after a horror end of year period.

WB with injuries dropping down

And slight readjustments among the bottom 7

*Yawn* I don't expect them to a North vs Sun GF and Sydney coming 11th. But this is boring and plenty will be wrong.

[Go Ds 301]

32 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Tim Watson. SEN. 

1st Cats

2 Swans 

3 Crows !!! 

4 Lions

5 Blues

6 Pies

7 Freo

8 Demons 

missing the 8 … Hawks, Giants, Power, Bombers, Suns & Bulldogs. 

hard to tip a top 8 when 14 teams could easily be nominated to make it and 7-8 teams would seriously have claims for a top 4 finish 

wow … Crows at 3.  That’s Crazy!!! 

There will be surprises. It sounds like in recent years a team well out if the eight make the prelims the year after. So it might be Crows. But it might be plenty of the others too.

[layzie 34,527]

1 hour ago, Clintosaurus said:

The Hawthorn hype from the media is ridiculous. Pre-season doco and all. What a [censored]. Hope they finish 9th but all them high tackle frees in forward 50 will get them in.

I don't see the justification for it either. I think people are picking them purely on gamestyle as it stood in the latter part of last year. 

There's nothing stopping them from doing a Collingwood in 2023 and going strength to strength but I can just as easily see them being worked out and lacking when the pressure is on.

[jnrmac 20,338]

https://www.3aw.com.au/rory-sloane-thinks-demons-will-respond-massively-in-2025/

3aw Season Preview with lloyd and Rory Sloane. Demons from around 18:46

3AW Football’s Rory Sloane has praised Melbourne’s “incredibly driven” superstars, as they look to feature in September action in 2025.

The former Adelaide Crows captain is confident Simon Goodwin’s side will get back to their best footy and make a big climb up the ladder.

“It’s scary playing against those guys,” Sloane said on the 3AW Football pre-season podcast.

“It excited me working with that midfield group, a lot of them are incredibly driven.”

Edited Thursday at 10:09 by jnrmac

[DubDee 26,612]

Thought this was a thread from March 2021 for a second

Most likely to be sacked?  Goodwin

Won a flag

Staggering how the media don't learn from history.

But I love it.  Stick it right up them Demons!

[Dee Viney Intervention 2,022]

Hawthorn premiers and Melbourne 14th. 
FFS. Behave!!!!!!!

[DubDee 26,612]

A team with a tall fwd line of Chol won’t be winning the flag

[Lucifers Hero 40,695]

@WheeloRatings

The ABC have rightly given you credit in this article:

unpredictable-afl-season-2025-set-to-be-most-open-in-years

It was remarkably accurate in 2024 wins eg Hawks, Swans, Pies and Dees rises and falls.  Their respective 2023 wins were 7, 12, 18 and 16.   The actual for 2024 is in the table below.  The 'draw strength' must have been statistically very significant.

Does  the 'Pythagorean' thing have much statistical credibility?  

Accounting for underlying team strength (Pythagorean expectation) and draw strength

 

The 11 predicted wins for us surprises me given we have a statistically easy draw.

If 'Pythagorean' does have cred then 2025 doesn't look too good for us. 

Think I'll ignore their 'logic' and continue to dream ...

... still confident that 2025 will atone 2023 ...

Edited Thursday at 22:57 by Lucifers Hero

[biggestred 5,296]

the thing with the footy maths is that at the start of the year its not taking into account returns from injury, trades, big preseasons etc. so getting trac and oliver at their best back into that team probably adds a win or two by itself...

[Lucifers Hero 40,695]

2 hours ago, biggestred said:

the thing with the footy maths is that at the start of the year its not taking into account returns from injury, trades, big preseasons etc. so getting trac and oliver at their best back into that team probably adds a win or two by itself...

Take another look at the table in my post and look at their predictions for 2024 and how they panned out. 

As I mentioned it was surprising how accurate the number of wins were for Hawks, Swans, Pies and Dees, even before a ball was bounced. 

No doubt having fewer injuries will help but maybe injuries pan out across the league to the point where they aren't statistically significant ...  I just hope the dees prediction for this year is horribly wrong.

Edited Friday at 02:41 by Lucifers Hero