Decline in the number of Indigenous players in the AFL

[whatwhat say what 22,933]

According to this article in ninefax...

• there were 71 on lists in 2024
• 2 indigenous players (meth coke's nga selection, malakai champion, and our own nga member, ricky mentha) are expected to be drafted in this 2024 cohort
• total will be as low as 62 in 2025

Key callout:

If neither Champion nor Mentha are chosen in the national draft (and instead added to their clubs’ lists as Category B rookies post-draft), it will be the first year since the modern national draft started 38 years ago in 1986 that not one Indigenous player has been selected in the draft proper.

That's crazy!

[Timothy Reddan-A'Blew 5,272]

44 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

According to this article in ninefax...

• there were 71 on lists in 2024
• 2 indigenous players (meth coke's nga selection, malakai champion, and our own nga member, ricky mentha) are expected to be drafted in this 2024 cohort
• total will be as low as 62 in 2025

Key callout:

If neither Champion nor Mentha are chosen in the national draft (and instead added to their clubs’ lists as Category B rookies post-draft), it will be the first year since the modern national draft started 38 years ago in 1986 that not one Indigenous player has been selected in the draft proper.

That's crazy!

Did the article attempt a 'Why'?

There lie dangerous waters...

[whatwhat say what 22,933]

7 minutes ago, Timothy Reddan-A'Blew said:

Did the article attempt a 'Why'?

There lie dangerous waters...

yes, lack of development pathways and funding

doesn't help when, for over 15 years now, $$s have been invested in northern franchises for, thus far, very little return

gerard healy has been banging on about it; there have been two players come through the gw$ academy, and one of them only JUST snuck into the zone

by comparison, where there was no development pathway in sydney's west, there was double the # of players coming through the same region in the previous decade

[DeeSpencer 26,080]

5 theories:

1. These things are cyclical, two of the highest rated kids for the next drafts are either indigenous or exploring indigenous heritage.

2. Private schools stopped recruiting indigenous kids in such big numbers due to covid or other factors. Scotch, MGS, Xavier, St Pats Ballarat all had numerous recruits, not sure they do now to the same extent.

3. The NGAs have backfired and disrupted existing pipelines in SA and WA especially where the bulk of indigenous talent has come from. Sanfl and wafl clubs all had their zones and people in the communities even if it was informal links. Rather than a rush to get guys in to the big smoke at a young age they’d come when they were ready.

4. the rise of academies and other elite talent factories at private schools, private coaching clinics, private S+C coaching has widened the void between junior talent and junior performance. Sam Lalor can just roll out of cricket and go number 1 but generally these kids are all trending towards Scully bots. More natural talent is left behind.

5. The city based, hyper professional, hyper scrutinised lifestyle of an afl player just doesn’t mesh with more and more people regardless of race including some (not all, not everyone) Indigenous players. Doesn’t mean there won’t be indigenous players who love it and are desperate for any chance but just like a Jaidyn Stephenson it’s not for everyone.

[The Lobster Effect 893]

1 minute ago, DeeSpencer said:

These things are cyclical, two of the highest rated kids for the next drafts are either indigenous or exploring indigenous heritage.

Who are they out of curiosity?

[Supreme_Demon 3,899]

It's up to the AFL to support grassroots funding in country areas.

They get billions of dollars in TV rights.

The Melbourne Football Club (and MCC) has done a lot in Central Australia with setting up a wonderful grassed MCG sized football oval. 

Hopefully, more of these types of initiatives can be done in the future.

[Dr. Mubutu 866]

29 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

5 theories:

3. The NGAs have backfired and disrupted existing pipelines in SA and WA especially where the bulk of indigenous talent has come from. Sanfl and wafl clubs all had their zones and people in the communities even if it was informal links. Rather than a rush to get guys in to the big smoke at a young age they’d come when they were ready.

It's honestly a lovely tapestry of all 5, however I think this is the biggest point. The AFL are terrible at the grassroots growth of the game, and taking it out of the hands of the lower levels is a HUGE mistake.

[DeeSpencer 26,080]

1 hour ago, The Lobster Effect said:

Who are they out of curiosity?

Cody Walker, son of Andrew and also in the Richmond nga.

And Dougie Cochrane son of Stuart who is exploring his potential indigenous heritage and asking the afl to allow his son to be in the port nga (not with draft access but for training)

[Bay Riffin 1,479]

so the difference is 9 players. Based on a sample of one year. yeah great analysis. 

[Cranky Franky 2,091]

The AFL has always treated grass roots footy ie suburban, country & remote with contempt.

[Little Goffy 14,639]

It is clearly a significant dip, but we don't want to get into a situation like when some [censored] 'artist-activist' made their attention seeking protest piece about how Geelong was the only club which didn't have an indigenous player in it's AFL team, when Geelong had spent the previous 20 years above average for indigenous presence.

I have to give a hat-tip to @DeeSpencer for his list of plausible causes.

In simplest terms -

AFL elite pathways are becoming more narrowed and favouring privileged children.

Indigenous children are less likely to be privileged.

This kind of thing which isn't necessarily racist but does 'perpetuate a racist legacy' is exactly what critical race theory was originally about before the look-at-moi bloggers on the periphery of academia took over and ruined it.

Reminds me of an old observation; If in 1980 you had waved a magic wand and eliminated racism, Australia would have been overall an equal enough society for a lot of the disadvantages to be absorbed with time and a new era to begin. But if today you waved that wand Indigenous people would still be stuck because Australia as a whole is now much more stratified and exclusive.

I do wonder, how many 'poor' kids in general are making it into the AFL now?

25 of the projected top-30 picks this year are private school kids.

[Cranky Franky 2,091]

45 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

@DeeSpencer 

This kind of thing which isn't necessarily racist but does 'perpetuate a racist legacy' is exactly what critical race theory was originally about before the look-at-moi bloggers on the periphery of academia took over and ruined it.

Critical race theory debunked on Demonland.

Now there's something I wasn't expecting !

[John Crow Batty 8,878]

1 hour ago, Bay Riffin said:

so the difference is 9 players. Based on a sample of one year. yeah great analysis. 

Need a longer term list like at least 2 decades of data to see if it validates the OP’s claim. 

[Garbo 1,542]

As a percentage of the population indigenous players are over represented at afl level, if this shows anything it’s that it’s now returning to the expected level after years of exceeding expectations.

Just did the math and given the approximate 800 afl players and 3.8 percent of people in Australia with indigenous heritage there should only be approximately 30 afl players, given the approximate 80 players drafted each year that’d only 3 players a year 

Edited November 20 by Garbo

[Diamond_Jim 12,627]

18 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

AFL elite pathways are becoming more narrowed and favouring privileged children.

Indigenous children are less likely to be privileged.

This is unfortunately true.

Not sure what the answer is and I don't think the AFL is interested in exploring the answer

The funneling of talent seems to start as early as age 12 but is really evident by age 15

I have often argued for a summer comp in NT featuring local players and some young VFL level players. It might help in widening the pathways and giving exposure to remote indigenous talent. It could be age limited to say 23 with two older players per team.

I've never been in favour of the boarding school route. It has overtones of the many "good intended" mistakes made in the past.

[No. 31 1,305]

20 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Cody Walker, son of Andrew and also in the Richmond nga.

And Dougie Cochrane son of Stuart who is exploring his potential indigenous heritage and asking the afl to allow his son to be in the port nga (not with draft access but for training)

Cody Walker will be a Carlton father-son pick and a potential #1 pick next year.

[Little Goffy 14,639]

11 hours ago, Garbo said:

As a percentage of the population indigenous players are over represented at afl level, if this shows anything it’s that it’s now returning to the expected level after years of exceeding expectations.

Just did the math and given the approximate 800 afl players and 3.8 percent of people in Australia with indigenous heritage there should only be approximately 30 afl players, given the approximate 80 players drafted each year that’d only 3 players a year 

Social maths is never so simple. Indigenous people are a much higher share of the 'Australian football' population.

Even in the formal kids program, Auskick, 6.5% of the kids noted on their registration that they were Indigenous. So we're already looking at an expected five or so draftees per season and 50+ players on lists before you even begin looking at the disparity of participation in informal play or the effects of whole community relationships to Australian football. The Rioli family is not a statistically significant share of the Australian population!

Given the timelines the article discusses, if there's a question to be answered it is simply "Has there been a negative shift in Indigenous participation in elite pathways since the Covid period?" If the previous connections were thinned out during the disruptions, such as culturally specific programs being cut during Covid and not yet restored, or community coaching programs in general haven't kept pace with the private school programs, then that would explain the current mild decline and would also point to a risk of continuing problems.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,909]

On 20/11/2024 at 11:44, DeeSpencer said:

5 theories:

1. These things are cyclical, two of the highest rated kids for the next drafts are either indigenous or exploring indigenous heritage.

2. Private schools stopped recruiting indigenous kids in such big numbers due to covid or other factors. Scotch, MGS, Xavier, St Pats Ballarat all had numerous recruits, not sure they do now to the same extent.

3. The NGAs have backfired and disrupted existing pipelines in SA and WA especially where the bulk of indigenous talent has come from. Sanfl and wafl clubs all had their zones and people in the communities even if it was informal links. Rather than a rush to get guys in to the big smoke at a young age they’d come when they were ready.

4. the rise of academies and other elite talent factories at private schools, private coaching clinics, private S+C coaching has widened the void between junior talent and junior performance. Sam Lalor can just roll out of cricket and go number 1 but generally these kids are all trending towards Scully bots. More natural talent is left behind.

5. The city based, hyper professional, hyper scrutinised lifestyle of an afl player just doesn’t mesh with more and more people regardless of race including some (not all, not everyone) Indigenous players. Doesn’t mean there won’t be indigenous players who love it and are desperate for any chance but just like a Jaidyn Stephenson it’s not for everyone.

Thanks for this. But what is "private S+C coaching"?

[DeeSpencer 26,080]

54 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Thanks for this. But what is "private S+C coaching"?

Strength and conditioning. A lot of these kids are now doing serious footy preseasons and extra in season training sessions run by professional fitness guys.

[Redleg 41,421]

Ricky Mentha could be another.

[Garbo 1,542]

8 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

Social maths is never so simple. Indigenous people are a much higher share of the 'Australian football' population.

Even in the formal kids program, Auskick, 6.5% of the kids noted on their registration that they were Indigenous. So we're already looking at an expected five or so draftees per season and 50+ players on lists before you even begin looking at the disparity of participation in informal play or the effects of whole community relationships to Australian football. The Rioli family is not a statistically significant share of the Australian population!

Given the timelines the article discusses, if there's a question to be answered it is simply "Has there been a negative shift in Indigenous participation in elite pathways since the Covid period?" If the previous connections were thinned out during the disruptions, such as culturally specific programs being cut during Covid and not yet restored, or community coaching programs in general haven't kept pace with the private school programs, then that would explain the current mild decline and would also point to a risk of continuing problems.

Good points but that just tells me other groups of people are underrepresented due to lack of pathways and or engagement, where is the outreach to people of Asian backgrounds like Indians and Chinese they both makeup a higher percentage of the population and yet are basically absent from the afl landscape.

I think the relative drop off in aboriginal players can also be put down to the footy department caps which has effected all potential players form all non traditional pathways, clubs just don’t have the resources to put into them anymore 

Edited November 21 by Garbo

[Fork 'em 6,991]

I'd suggest participation rates dropping across the board might have something to do with it.

Half the kids these days would rather stay home on the Playstation.

But anyone who's watched Spaniards - "Into the Hoods" of Alice Springs and Darwin on You-tube might have a little more understanding.

We all saw the problems that confronted Liam Jurrah even when he made it onto our list supported by Jim Stynes. 

[dpositive 1,677]

Raw data rarely provides the answer. The issue of participation has many variables as the very reasoned points in this thread begin to outline.

There is a profound argument for positive discrimination to overcome underlying and systemic racism within our society but given the diversity and multi racial composition of that society it is great that Demonland can present rational thoughts and arguments to respond to what is a complex issue.

The AFL as a representative body could do more to consult stakeholders to develop improved communication for identifying and recognising positive and negative aspects for improving participation.

It may be, as mentioned, that communities and families are content to recognise some of the advantages of alternative pursuits.

I recently attended a sports forum where an argument was introduced that an emerging cohort labelled "entitled" was identified. These were people who expected the local community to provide for their individual preference with no involvement in establishing, participating or maintaining the infrastructure needed to undertake that pursuit.

Economic circumstance is a key factor affecting participation and while I personally advocate less reliance on volunteer structures there must be consideration of economic values, efficiency of scale, and redistribution of resources to maximise the best outcomes.

[Roost it far 8,578]

Like all sports the bulk of the funding pours through less and less pathways. Indigenous kids from communities have infinitely less chance to end up in a pathway than a city kid. The AFL should be doing more on this front as clearly governments have given up.