The AFL 2025 Fixture

[Dr. Gonzo 24,266]

In rounds 3 (Suns), 4 (Cats) and 5 (Bombers) we play teams coming off a bye. Not sure if that helps or hinders that early in the season but it is a quirk worth noting.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,923]

9 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

In rounds 3 (Suns), 4 (Cats) and 5 (Bombers) we play teams coming off a bye. Not sure if that helps or hinders that early in the season but it is a quirk worth noting.

Definitely worth noting that we'll be playing 3 rested opponents.

Conversely we'll be fresh coming into the GWS round 1 game who would have come off a warm Sunday afternoon game the week before. The start of the season is all over the shop due to OR.

Another quirk is that our bye isn't after the Kings B'day for the first time in years. It's a week later in round 15.

 

[jnrmac 20,154]

Wasn't sure where to put this but was having a discussion with a fellow Dee man and we were laughing at the odds for the 2025 flag

Those of you who are punters might be able to comment on how the Dees are 11th in line for the flag at 26 to 1 and the Hawks are 2nd in line at 8.50

Are you able to back Melbourne at 26.50 and cash out when they get to say 12 to 1 during the season? In the first 8 rounds we play North, GC, Ess, Rich, Weagles. There is a reasonable chance we will be at least 6 and 1 possibly 7 and 1.

And seeing as we are flying at summer training (!!).....

 

• Brisbane Lions 7.50
• Hawthorn 8.50
• GWS GIANTS 9.50
• Carlton 10.00
• Collingwood 10.0
• Geelong Cats 10.0
• Sydney Swans 10.00
• Fremantle 13.00
• Western Bulldogs 13.00
• Port Adelaide 18.00
• Melbourne 26.00
• Adelaide Crows 34.00
• Gold Coast SUNS 41.00
• St Kilda 51.00
• Essendon 67.00
• North Melbourne 126.00
• West Coast Eagles 126.00
• Richmond 151.00

[Lucifers Hero 40,299]

1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

Wasn't sure where to put this but was having a discussion with a fellow Dee man and we were laughing at the odds for the 2025 flag

Those of you who are punters might be able to comment on how the Dees are 11th in line for the flag at 26 to 1 and the Hawks are 2nd in line at 8.50

Are you able to back Melbourne at 26.50 and cash out when they get to say 12 to 1 during the season? In the first 8 rounds we play North, GC, Ess, Rich, Weagles. There is a reasonable chance we will be at least 6 and 1 possibly 7 and 1.

And seeing as we are flying at summer training (!!).....

 

• Brisbane Lions 7.50
• Hawthorn 8.50
• GWS GIANTS 9.50
• Carlton 10.00
• Collingwood 10.0
• Geelong Cats 10.0
• Sydney Swans 10.00
• Fremantle 13.00
• Western Bulldogs 13.00
• Port Adelaide 18.00
• Melbourne 26.00
• Adelaide Crows 34.00
• Gold Coast SUNS 41.00
• St Kilda 51.00
• Essendon 67.00
• North Melbourne 126.00
• West Coast Eagles 126.00
• Richmond 151.00

@binman is your man!

As a 'betting nuffy' I would say people are drinking the Hawks Kool-aid and will be shocked when the Mighty Dees come home with a wet sail!! 

[binman 43,690]

20 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Wasn't sure where to put this but was having a discussion with a fellow Dee man and we were laughing at the odds for the 2025 flag

Those of you who are punters might be able to comment on how the Dees are 11th in line for the flag at 26 to 1 and the Hawks are 2nd in line at 8.50

Are you able to back Melbourne at 26.50 and cash out when they get to say 12 to 1 during the season? In the first 8 rounds we play North, GC, Ess, Rich, Weagles. There is a reasonable chance we will be at least 6 and 1 possibly 7 and 1.

And seeing as we are flying at summer training (!!).....

 

• Brisbane Lions 7.50
• Hawthorn 8.50
• GWS GIANTS 9.50
• Carlton 10.00
• Collingwood 10.0
• Geelong Cats 10.0
• Sydney Swans 10.00
• Fremantle 13.00
• Western Bulldogs 13.00
• Port Adelaide 18.00
• Melbourne 26.00
• Adelaide Crows 34.00
• Gold Coast SUNS 41.00
• St Kilda 51.00
• Essendon 67.00
• North Melbourne 126.00
• West Coast Eagles 126.00
• Richmond 151.00

Short answer.

The bookies set the initial price.

Their prices top to bottom would pretty much reflect the previous season's ladder.

After that point the prices are set by the punters. That's to say who punters put their money on.

The bookies change the odds to cover their spread and ensure a profit no matter who wins.

At this point there would be bugger all in the pool. So relatively small amounts wagered on particular teams would have an outsize impact on prices.

For example a bunch of hawks fans with hok ball fever puting $20 here, $50 there, brings them into second favs.

If one of us dropped 2k on the dees, the bookies would reel us in quick smart. How far depends on how much money is in the pool.

Winning on the punt is not about picking the winner. It's about getting a price over the 'true odds' (being good at determining the true odds is the other key to winning).

Betting on the flag at this point is a fools errand because it's impossible to determine the true odds at this point given the millions of unknowns and variables in between now and September next year (injury being the most important).

Which is why there's no money in the pool now  - no big punter is putting any coin in now.

That said, $26 in my opinion is def 'overs'.

And given our pretty soft draw early, backing them now and cashing out, or laying off, after say 7 rounds would be a smart play.

Edited Sunday at 22:15 by binman

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,408]

I only bet with Sportsbet, I’d be surprised if a cash out option was available after just seven rounds and if it was it wouldn’t be very much, possibly lower than the amount of the original bet. We’re talking about a 23 rd season with a lot to play out (including injuries), then on personal note out clubs finals campaign in 2022/23. 
 

[binman 43,690]

7 hours ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

I only bet with Sportsbet, I’d be surprised if a cash out option was available after just seven rounds and if it was it wouldn’t be very much, possibly lower than the amount of the original bet. We’re talking about a 23 rd season with a lot to play out (including injuries), then on personal note out clubs finals campaign in 2022/23. 
 

Yeah, you're probably right.

Alternative suggestion:

Put 10 units on the dees to win the flag at $26. 

Don't lay off.

Make a profit of $250 units when we win the flag.

[DistrACTION Jackson 9,183]

4 minutes ago, binman said:

Yeah, you're probably right.

Alternative suggestion:

Put 10 units on the dees to win the flag at $26. 

Don't lay off.

Make a profit of $250 units when we win the flag.

I’m thinking of chucking $50 on it and let that ride for the year for a bit of fun

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,408]

1 hour ago, binman said:

Yeah, you're probably right.

Alternative suggestion:

Put 10 units on the dees to win the flag at $26. 

Don't lay off.

Make a profit of $250 units when we win the flag.

Another option is a series of say $5 or $10 multis taking some obvious ones along with some long shots.

For example in 2016 i put a number of them on, one being

$10 bet 

Coleman : Josh Kennedy @ $2.75

Brownlow : Paddy Dangerfield @ $9.00

Premiers : Bulldogs @ $12.50 (for the life of me I can’t remember why I picked them)

Rising Star : Clayton Oliver @ $10:00 (Calum Mills was the winner).

Five bets @ $10 & 10 bets @ $5 give one the opportunity to take a range of possibilities and the fun lasts the whole season.